CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – Dec 11 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL – ONE YEAR POST-CEASEFIRE: 370+ HEZBOLLAH KILLED & 127 CIVILIANS DEAD
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 85/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⬇️ CAUTIOUS STABILIZATION – LAF DISARMAMENT ADVANCING DESPITE VIOLATIONS

🚨 BREAKING: THURSDAY DECEMBER 11 – ONE-YEAR CEASEFIRE ANNIVERSARY & ONGOING STRIKES

IMMEDIATE CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS:

ONE YEAR SINCE CEASEFIRE: 370+ HEZBOLLAH OPERATIVES ELIMINATED: IDF reports eliminating more than 370 terrorist operatives, mostly from Hezbollah, since November 27, 2024 ceasefire, conducting approximately 1,200 targeted ground operations to destroy terrorist infrastructure across Lebanon.

127 LEBANESE CIVILIANS KILLED POST-CEASEFIRE: UN Human Rights Office documents approximately 127 Lebanese civilians killed and several injured in Israeli operations since ceasefire, striking homes, vehicles, and civilian objects in southern villages and along main roads.

5,198 ISRAELI CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTED: Lebanese army officials documented 5,198 Israeli violations of ceasefire including 657 air strikes by end of November, demonstrating systematic pattern of near-daily attacks throughout one-year period.

LAF DISARMAMENT PLAN ADVANCING: Lebanese Armed Forces progressing on five-stage plan to disarm Hezbollah by end of 2025 with cabinet endorsement, having already removed nearly 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, and 205,000+ unexploded ordnance during past year.

LAST WEEK: HEZBOLLAH CHIEF OF STAFF KILLED: Israeli strike killed Hezbollah’s acting chief of staff Haitham Ali al-Tabataba’i in late November Beirut attack, with IDF asserting he “played key role in expanding Hezbollah’s operational and military capacities.”

DECEMBER 4 STRIKES: MULTIPLE SOUTHERN TOWNS HIT: Israeli military launched air strikes on at least three southern towns (Mahrouna, Jbaa, al-Majadel) on December 4 with IDF spokesperson issuing forced evacuation warnings, destroying building in densely populated area.

SECURITY COUNCIL VISIT THIS WEEK: UN Security Council conducting visit to Lebanon this week – first to region in six years – coming “at crucial time” one year after ceasefire as country faces daily challenges.

ISRAEL MAINTAINS 5 POSITIONS IN LEBANON: Israeli forces continue occupying five strategic locations in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire requirement for full withdrawal, with IDF maintaining presence preventing civilian returns.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 77/100 🔴
Status: Critical with One-Year Ceasefire Violations Pattern. The capital coordinates environment as LAF advances disarmament while 127 civilian deaths and 370+ Hezbollah eliminated demonstrate systematic continuing operations.

Government facilities manage complex situation with LAF’s weapons removal success (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles) while late November Hezbollah chief of staff killing in capital shows Beirut remains target.

The combination of LAF’s disarmament advancement, 5,198 documented violations, 127 civilian deaths, Security Council visit this week, and near-daily strikes creates critical environment.

Economic activities face mixed signals from LAF’s major progress while one-year pattern of 5,198 violations and 127 civilian deaths demonstrate continuing security challenges.

Security coordination advances with LAF plan and international support while managing one-year pattern of systematic violations and late November capital strike.

Key Factor: Capital coordinating LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal success despite 5,198 violations, 127 civilian deaths, and late November Beirut strike killing Hezbollah chief of staff.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 59/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with LAF Progress Amid One-Year Violations. The governorate observes LAF’s advancement while processing 5,198 documented ceasefire violations and 127 civilian deaths.

Tourism sector experiences cautious improvement from LAF’s plan advancement and weapons removal success while one-year pattern of violations maintains elevated concerns.

Local businesses express measured optimism from LAF’s disarmament progress while 127 civilian deaths and 370+ operatives killed demonstrate systematic operations continuing.

Regional communities observe LAF’s progress with hope while 5,198 violations and Security Council visit indicate ongoing challenges.

Key Factor: Regional cautious optimism from LAF progress despite one-year pattern of 5,198 violations and 127 civilian deaths.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 66/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Disarmament Success Amid Violations. Tripoli and surrounding areas face measured improvement from LAF’s advancement while one-year ceasefire violations continue.

The region observes LAF’s five-stage plan progressing with 10,000 rockets and 400 missiles already removed while 5,198 violations show systematic operations persisting.

Port operations experience cautious stabilization from LAF’s success while 127 civilian deaths and 657 airstrikes document fragile situation.

Cross-border dynamics face complexity from LAF’s advancement while 5,198 violations and IDF’s 5 maintained positions indicate challenges persisting.

Key Factor: Regional measured improvement from LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal while one-year pattern of 5,198 violations maintains elevated status.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 63/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with LAF Weapons Removal Success. The Syrian border region faces cautious outlook from LAF’s massive disarmament achievement while processing one-year violations pattern.

Local communities observe LAF’s removal of 10,000 rockets and 400 missiles with measured optimism while 5,198 violations demonstrate systematic challenges.

Border security operations monitor LAF’s successful removal of 205,000+ ordnance as stabilizing while 127 civilian deaths demonstrate continuing toll.

Agricultural activities proceed with improved outlook from LAF’s progress while Security Council visit this week highlights ongoing regional concerns.

Key Factor: Border area cautious improvement from LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal despite one-year pattern of 5,198 violations.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 86/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Strategic Weapons Sites Targeted Throughout Year. The valley faces maximum crisis as IDF reports destroying “strategic weapons production and storage site” in Beqaa region, demonstrating valley remains active target zone.

NOVEMBER 10 STRIKES targeted what Israel described as “strategic weapons production and storage site” in Bekaa region demonstrating valley’s continued role in Hezbollah infrastructure.

IDF OPERATIONS throughout year include Beqaa targeting as part of 1,200 ground operations to destroy terrorist infrastructure across Lebanon.

Emergency services operate under MAXIMUM THREAT coordinating response to systematic targeting while processing LAF’s disarmament plan progress.

Civilian populations face MAXIMUM VULNERABILITY from strategic targeting pattern despite LAF’s removal of 10,000 rockets and 400 missiles from region.

NOVEMBER 21: LAF ARRESTS NOAH ZAITAR, Lebanon’s most infamous drug lord, in Baalbek following series of raids, with two soldiers martyred during operations demonstrating LAF’s expanding security control.

The combination of strategic site targeting, LAF operations success, Security Council visit, and systematic strikes creates critical complex environment.

Key Factor: Critical status from strategic weapons site targeting throughout year despite LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal and successful drug lord arrest.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 85/100 🔴
Status: Critical with LAF Operations Success and Regional Targeting. The region faces maximum tensions from systematic targeting while LAF successfully arrested Noah Zaitar here November 21.

The region observes LAF expanding control with successful drug lord arrest while IDF targeting demonstrates attacks continue despite weapons removal progress.

Infrastructure development faces complex environment from LAF’s advancement and major arrest while strategic targeting demonstrates continuing operations.

Cultural sites experience tension from regional targeting while LAF’s plan, weapons removal, and November 21 arrest offer potential stabilization path.

Traditional community structures observe LAF’s expanding authority with cautious hope while systematic targeting demonstrates continued threat.

Key Factor: Maximum tension from strategic targeting pattern despite LAF’s November 21 drug lord arrest and disarmament plan advancement.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 60/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with LAF Disarmament Success. The coastal governorate processes LAF’s major weapons removal while managing one-year violations pattern.

Tourism activities face improved outlook from LAF’s documented removal of 10,000 rockets and 400 missiles while 5,198 violations maintain elevated concerns.

Local businesses express measured optimism from LAF’s five-stage plan advancement while 127 civilian deaths demonstrate continuing casualties.

The region experiences cautious stabilization from LAF’s weapons removal success while Security Council visit this week shows international engagement.

Key Factor: Local cautious improvement from LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal despite one-year pattern of 5,198 violations.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 93/100 🔴
STATUS: ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM CRISIS – 5,198 VIOLATIONS & IDF OCCUPIES 5 POSITIONS. The south faces ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM DANGER from 5,198 documented violations, 657 airstrikes, 127 civilian deaths, and IDF maintaining 5 occupied positions one year post-ceasefire.

5,198 ISRAELI VIOLATIONS documented by Lebanese army by end of November including 657 airstrikes demonstrates concentrated operations in south despite ceasefire.

IDF MAINTAINS 5 STRATEGIC POSITIONS in southern Lebanon preventing civilian returns and continuing sovereignty violation despite ceasefire requirement for withdrawal.

Emergency services operate under ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM THREAT coordinating response to systematic violations, 127 civilian deaths, recent December 4 strikes while processing LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal.

Civilian populations face ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM VULNERABILITY from 127 verified civilian deaths, near-daily strikes, and IDF’s 5 occupied positions preventing returns.

DECEMBER 4 STRIKES hit Mahrouna, Jbaa, and al-Majadel with IDF issuing forced evacuation warnings, destroying building in densely populated residential area.

The combination of 5,198 violations, 657 airstrikes, 127 civilian deaths, IDF’s 5 positions, December 4 strikes, and LAF progress creates ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM danger.

Key Factor: ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM CRISIS from 5,198 violations, 127 civilian deaths, and IDF’s 5 maintained positions within one-year systematic pattern.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 91/100 🔴
Status: Critical – November 2 Strike Killed Four Plus Systematic Targeting. The governorate faces maximum security crisis from November 2 Kfarsir strike killing four with three wounded.

November 2 Israeli airstrike in Kfarsir town killed at least four people and wounded three, striking car with “guided missile” demonstrating continued targeting in district.

Community services face extreme pressure from systematic violations, 127 civilian deaths toll, and November infrastructure targeting throughout governorate.

Medical facilities coordinate emergency response while managing transition environment from LAF’s disarmament plan (10,000 rockets already removed).

Local communities experience maximum vulnerability from November 2 deaths, systematic operations, and ongoing strikes amid LAF plan advancement.

Key Factor: Maximum vulnerability from November 2 Kfarsir strike killing four within one-year pattern of 5,198 violations.

🎯 CURRENT SECURITY ASSESSMENT – ONE-YEAR CEASEFIRE ANNIVERSARY

🔴 CRITICAL IMMEDIATE DEVELOPMENTS:

One-Year Ceasefire Review (Nov 27, 2024 – Dec 11, 2025):

1. 5,198 VIOLATIONS DOCUMENTED – Lebanese army count by end November
2. 657 AIRSTRIKES CONDUCTED – Israeli operations throughout year
3. 370+ HEZBOLLAH ELIMINATED – IDF reports operatives killed
4. 127 CIVILIANS KILLED – UN Human Rights Office verification
5. 1,200 GROUND OPERATIONS – IDF targeted operations to destroy infrastructure

Recent Major Incidents:

1. DECEMBER 4 STRIKES – Mahrouna, Jbaa, al-Majadel hit with evacuations
2. LATE NOVEMBER BEIRUT STRIKE – Hezbollah chief of staff killed
3. NOVEMBER 18 EIN EL-HILWEH – 14 killed including 12 children in refugee camp
4. NOVEMBER 16 UNIFIL ATTACK – Israeli tank fired on UN patrol endangering peacekeepers
5. NOVEMBER 10 BEQAA STRIKE – Strategic weapons production site targeted

LAF Disarmament Success:

1. 10,000 ROCKETS REMOVED – LAF successfully dismantled massive cache
2. 400 MISSILES DISMANTLED – Almost 400 missiles removed during year
3. 205,000+ ORDNANCE CLEARED – Unexploded ordnance fragments removed
4. FIVE-STAGE PLAN – Cabinet-endorsed process targeting end of 2025
5. NOVEMBER 21 ARREST – Noah Zaitar drug kingpin captured in Baalbek

International Developments:

1. SECURITY COUNCIL VISIT THIS WEEK – First to region in six years
2. UN RAPPORTEUR CONDEMNATION – “War crimes” statement on systematic attacks
3. 127 CIVILIAN DEATHS VERIFIED – UN Human Rights Office documentation
4. IDF 5 POSITIONS – Occupied locations despite withdrawal requirement
5. UNIFIL MANDATE ENDS 2026 – Final drawdown approaching December 2026

🔴 COMPLEX ONE-YEAR TRANSITION FACTORS:

Unprecedented Environment:

1. 5,198 Violations – Systematic breaches throughout year
2. LAF’s Major Success – 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000+ ordnance removed
3. 127 Civilian Deaths – UN-verified casualties since ceasefire
4. 370+ Hezbollah Killed – IDF systematic targeting operations
5. Security Council Visit – International engagement this week

⚠️ ONE-YEAR COMPLEX ASSESSMENT:

• 5,198 Documented Violations – Lebanese army count by end November
• LAF’s Massive Success – 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000+ ordnance removed
• 127 Civilian Deaths – UN Human Rights Office verification
• 370+ Operatives Eliminated – IDF systematic operations
• IDF 5 Positions Maintained – Occupied locations one year post-ceasefire

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE – ONE-YEAR POST-CEASEFIRE PERIOD

🏠 RESIDENT SECURITY RECOMMENDATIONS:

CRITICAL TRANSITION – ONE YEAR OF VIOLATIONS & LAF SUCCESS: Lebanon experiences critical transition with 5,198 documented violations including 657 airstrikes and 127 civilian deaths one year post-ceasefire, while LAF’s massive disarmament success (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000+ ordnance removed) demonstrates major progress amid Security Council visit this week.

IMMEDIATE SECURITY ACTIONS:

• SOUTHERN LEBANON EXTREME CAUTION – 5,198 violations concentrated here
• IDF 5 POSITIONS AWARENESS – Occupied locations preventing returns
• DECEMBER 4 STRIKE ZONES – Mahrouna, Jbaa, al-Majadel areas
• CIVILIAN VULNERABILITY – 127 deaths documented by UN
• LAF PROGRESS RECOGNITION – 10,000 rockets removal major achievement

INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSITIONAL VULNERABILITY: LAF’s massive weapons removal (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000+ ordnance) offers major progress while 5,198 violations and 127 civilian deaths demonstrate one-year systematic pattern.

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATION RECOMMENDATIONS:

ONE-YEAR TRANSITION PROTOCOLS:

• SOUTHERN OPERATIONS MAXIMUM CAUTION – 5,198 violations, 657 airstrikes
• BEQAA OPERATIONS VIGILANCE – Strategic sites targeting pattern
• IDF POSITIONS AVOIDANCE – Five occupied locations in south
• LAF PLAN COORDINATION – Five-stage disarmament monitoring
• SECURITY COUNCIL VISIT AWARENESS – International engagement this week

🚗 TRAVEL SECURITY STATUS:

MAXIMUM CAUTION – ONE YEAR OF SYSTEMATIC VIOLATIONS: LAF’s removal of 10,000 rockets demonstrates major progress while 5,198 violations, 127 civilian deaths, and IDF’s 5 positions require MAXIMUM CAUTION.

ABSOLUTE DANGER ZONES:

• ENTIRE SOUTHERN LEBANON – 5,198 violations, 657 airstrikes concentrated
• IDF 5 OCCUPIED POSITIONS – Strategic locations in south
• DECEMBER 4 STRIKE AREAS – Mahrouna, Jbaa, al-Majadel
• BEQAA VALLEY – Strategic weapons sites targeting
• ALL VEHICLE TRAVEL – Systematic car strikes pattern continuing

🔮 24-HOUR TRANSITION FORECAST

Predicted Index Reading: 83/100
Forecast Trend: ⬇️ CAUTIOUS STABILIZATION – LAF PROGRESS ADVANCING

Transition Developments Probability:

1. Continued LAF Disarmament (85% probability) – Five-stage plan advancing
2. Security Council Engagement (90% probability) – Visit this week ongoing
3. Additional Strikes (65% probability) – One-year pattern continuing
4. UNIFIL Coordination (80% probability) – Peacekeepers monitoring
5. Diplomatic Progress (75% probability) – One-year anniversary engagement

Critical Monitoring Factors: LAF disarmament pace, Security Council visit outcomes, strike incidents continuation, IDF positions status, civilian casualties.

Stabilization Factors: LAF plan successful implementation, strikes cessation, IDF withdrawal from 5 positions, Security Council support, diplomatic resolution.

📊 ONE-YEAR CEASEFIRE ANALYSIS

Today’s Security Level: Critical – One Year Post-Ceasefire with LAF Success Amid Violations
Change from Previous Assessment: -2 points (Improvement from LAF’s major documented success)
Crisis Trend: Transition with Major LAF Achievement and One-Year Violations Pattern
Assessment: Lebanon experiences critical transition marking one year since November 27, 2024 ceasefire with IDF eliminating 370+ operatives and conducting 1,200 operations, while UN documents 127 civilian deaths and Lebanese army counts 5,198 violations including 657 airstrikes, as LAF’s massive disarmament success (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000+ ordnance removed) demonstrates major progress amid Security Council visit this week.

Strategic One-Year Analysis: IDF reports eliminating more than 370 terrorist operatives, mostly from Hezbollah, since November 27, 2024 ceasefire, conducting approximately 1,200 targeted ground operations to destroy terrorist infrastructure and damage organization’s military capabilities throughout Lebanon.

UN Human Rights Office documents approximately 127 Lebanese civilians killed and several injured in Israeli operations since ceasefire, which have struck homes, vehicles, and other civilian objects in southern villages and along main roads, with UN Special Rapporteur Morris Tidball-Binz stating “these repeated attacks on civilians and civilian objects are war crimes.”

Lebanese army officials documented 5,198 Israeli violations of ceasefire including 657 air strikes by end of November, demonstrating systematic pattern of near-daily attacks throughout one-year period despite ceasefire agreement.

Lebanese Armed Forces successfully removed nearly 10,000 rockets, almost 400 missiles, and over 205,000 unexploded ordnance fragments during past year as five-stage disarmament plan advances with cabinet endorsement targeting end of 2025 for state monopoly on weapons.

Late November Israeli strike killed Hezbollah’s acting chief of staff Haitham Ali al-Tabataba’i in Beirut, with Prime Minister Netanyahu warning “Israel will not allow Hezbollah to rebuild its power” and asserting expectation for Lebanese government to fulfill commitment to disarm Hezbollah.

November 18 Israeli drone strike hit Ein el-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp near Sidon, killing at least 14 people including twelve children, making it deadliest single strike since ceasefire with UN calling it part of “disturbing pattern.”

Israeli forces continue occupying five strategic locations in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire requirement for full withdrawal, maintaining presence preventing civilian returns and continuing sovereignty violation.

UN Security Council conducting visit to Lebanon this week – first to region in six years – coming “at crucial time” one year after ceasefire as country faces daily challenges, with Council showing solidarity and discussing paths forward.

The convergence of 5,198 violations (657 airstrikes), 127 civilian deaths, 370+ Hezbollah eliminated, LAF’s massive success (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000+ ordnance removed), Security Council visit, late November Beirut strike, and IDF’s 5 maintained positions creates critical one-year transitional environment with major progress alongside systematic violations requiring international engagement and careful monitoring.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: ONE-YEAR POST-CEASEFIRE MAXIMUM PROTOCOLS

🔴 CRITICAL TRANSITION ALERT – ONE YEAR: 5,198 VIOLATIONS & LAF’S 10,000 ROCKETS REMOVAL

During Lebanon’s critical one-year post-ceasefire transition with 5,198 violations, 127 civilian deaths, and LAF’s major disarmament success, CIS Security maintains maximum protocols.

ONE-YEAR TRANSITION SERVICES:

Violations Pattern Response:

• 5,198 Violations Monitoring – Systematic breaches documentation
• 657 Airstrikes Tracking – Israeli operations coordination
• 127 Civilian Deaths Documentation – UN-verified casualties response
• IDF 5 Positions Awareness – Occupied locations security

LAF Disarmament Coordination:

• 10,000 Rockets Removal – Massive weapons cache documentation
• 400 Missiles Dismantling – LAF success tracking and support
• 205,000+ Ordnance Clearance – Unexploded fragments coordination
• Five-Stage Plan Monitoring – End-2025 target tracking

🔴 ONE-YEAR CRISIS CONTACT – MAXIMUM ALERT

EMERGENCY COMMAND CENTER: +961-3-539900
Maximum protocols for one-year pattern and LAF major success

VIOLATIONS COORDINATION: 5,198 breaches pattern security
LAF SUCCESS MONITORING: 10,000 rockets removal coordination
SECURITY COUNCIL ENGAGEMENT: Visit this week coordination

During Lebanon’s one-year post-ceasefire with 5,198 violations and LAF’s major success, CIS Security provides maximum protection.

⚠️ ONE-YEAR POST-CEASEFIRE NOTICE

CRITICAL TRANSITION ALERT: Lebanon marks one year since November 27, 2024 ceasefire with Lebanese army documenting 5,198 Israeli violations including 657 airstrikes, UN verifying 127 civilian deaths, and IDF reporting 370+ operatives eliminated through 1,200 operations, while Lebanese Armed Forces massive disarmament success (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000+ unexploded ordnance removed) demonstrates major progress as Security Council conducts visit this week – first to region in six years – coming at crucial time as country faces daily challenges requiring maximum security protocols.

Update Frequency: Real-time monitoring during one-year anniversary period. Alerts: Immediate updates for violations, LAF progress, and international engagement.

ONE-YEAR VIOLATIONS: 5,198 documented by Lebanese army including 657 airstrikes demonstrating systematic pattern.

LAF MAJOR SUCCESS: Successfully removed 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, and 205,000+ ordnance during year marking unprecedented disarmament achievement.

Professional One-Year Statement: CIS Security maintains maximum capabilities during unprecedented one-year post-ceasefire transition with 5,198 violations (657 airstrikes), 127 UN-verified civilian deaths, and LAF’s massive disarmament success (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000+ ordnance removed). Our commitment to all personnel safety remains absolute during critical period with Security Council visit this week and systematic operations continuing.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Protection During One-Year Post-Ceasefire Transition”

During Lebanon’s unprecedented one-year post-ceasefire transition with 5,198 violations and LAF’s major disarmament success, trust CIS Security’s 35+ years expertise.

CIS Security One-Year Period Services:

• 5,198 Violations Monitoring – Systematic pattern documentation
• LAF Success Coordination – 10,000 rockets removal support
• 127 Civilian Deaths Response – UN-verified casualties coordination
• Security Council Visit Support – International engagement this week
• Five-Stage Plan Monitoring – LAF disarmament advancement

One-Year Post-Ceasefire Consultation: 📞 24/7 Emergency Command: +961-3-539900
💬 Maximum Transition WhatsApp: Real-time one-year period coordination
🌐 Emergency Website: www.cissecurity.net

During Lebanon’s critical one-year post-ceasefire with 5,198 violations, 127 civilian deaths, and LAF’s massive disarmament success, CIS Security provides absolute maximum protection.