🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™, Thursday, Feb 19 2026

| Ramadan Day 2

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL OVERALL INDEX: 89/100 TREND: ⬆️ ESCALATING HEADLINE: TABNA STRUCK OVERNIGHT — PHASE 2 DISARMAMENT LAUNCHED AMID HEZBOLLAH REJECTION — IRAN WAR RISK PUTS ISRAEL ON MAXIMUM ALERT — MACRON INVITES AOUN TO CO-CHAIR PARIS CONFERENCE

🚨 BREAKING DEVELOPMENTS — THURSDAY FEBRUARY 19, 2026

🔴 BREAKING #1 — TABNA STRUCK OVERNIGHT; YAROUN AND KHIAM INCURSIONS TODAY

[Naharnet — Published today, 13:35]

Israeli warplanes carried out overnight strikes on the southern area of Tabna in the Sidon district, with Israel claiming it targeted Hezbollah arms depots, launchpads and military sites. This extends Israeli targeting further north toward Sidon — directly into the Phase 2 disarmament corridor.

Separately, Israeli ground forces entered the southern border towns of Yaroun and Khiam today and detonated two houses. Ground incursions into Lebanese border villages have increased markedly in frequency in recent weeks.

Stun grenades now routine: On Thursday (today), an Israeli drone dropped a stun grenade on Odaysseh. On Wednesday, at least four stun grenades were dropped on Aita al-Shaab. The mayor of Aita al-Shaab — a village where fewer than 52 people now live out of an original population of approximately 15,000 — stated plainly that incursions, toxins, and grenades are “a strategy to pressure residents and force gradual displacement.”

🔴 BREAKING #2 — AOUN AND HAYKAL TELL QUINTET: NORTH LITANI PLAN HAS BEGUN

[Naharnet — Published today, 15:59]

In a major development, President Joseph Aoun and Army Commander Gen. Rodolphe Haykal informed the five-nation Quintet group (France, USA, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt) today that implementation of the army’s disarmament plan north of the Litani River has officially started.

Quoting al-Liwaa, sources said: “Any discovered military facility is being seized, but launching a broad search operation requires understandings so that a clash does not take place between the army and the parties on the ground in the South.” The army’s approach prioritises negotiated compliance over forced confrontation: “The more the plan gets implemented through understandings, the more the results will be better, as happened south of the Litani River.”

This is a strategically critical announcement: Phase 2 has formally begun, despite Hezbollah’s public rejection of the timeline. The army is threading the needle between enforcement and avoiding armed confrontation.

🔴 BREAKING #3 — MACRON INVITES AOUN TO CO-CHAIR PARIS CONFERENCE MARCH 5

[Naharnet — Published today, confirmed by Presidency]

French President Emmanuel Macron formally invited Lebanese President Joseph Aoun to co-chair the international conference in support of the Lebanese Armed Forces and Internal Security Forces, to be held in Paris on March 5, 2026.

Macron’s letter to Aoun stated: “Your personal participation in this conference will represent a powerful political signal that reflects the firmness of the ties that link France to Lebanon and our common insistence on the stability of your country and the full restoration of its sovereignty.” The conference’s goal is described as rallying “coordinated international assistance” and “reaffirming international community’s political, financial and technical support.”

Army Commander Haykal separately met today with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri at Ain el-Tineh — a significant contact given Berri’s role as Amal Movement leader and Shi’ite political anchor in relation to Phase 2 implementation.

The Quintet met today in Yarze discussing the importance of enhancing Lebanese Army capabilities as it moves into Phase 2. Doha will host a preparatory meeting ahead of the Paris conference.

🔴 BREAKING #4 — ISRAEL ON MAXIMUM ALERT: US-IRAN WAR THREAT GROWING

[Multiple sources — Naharnet, Haaretz, News24, Military Times — today]

This is the single most significant new regional escalation factor of the day. Israeli forces have been placed on maximum alert on the Lebanon border amid growing expectations of a possible US-Israeli military strike against Iran, according to Naharnet (19 February, published today).

Background: A second round of indirect US-Iran nuclear talks concluded in Geneva on February 17. US Vice President Vance described talks as having “in some ways gone well” but noted Iran is “still unwilling to accept some of Trump’s nuclear red lines.” Iran’s Foreign Minister said “guiding principles” have been agreed. However:

• Israeli media outlet Yedioth Ahronoth reports a state of panic and maximum alert in Israel amid expectations of a joint US-Israeli strike against Iran “in coming days”
• Israeli PM Netanyahu has instructed emergency services and the Home Front Command to prepare for war
• The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier has joined the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group in the region; more than 50 advanced fighter jets including F-35s and F-22s have been moved closer to West Asia; additional THAAD and Patriot batteries deployed
• Hezbollah’s role: Despite military degradation, analysts state Hezbollah “will also be present in the equation” if Iran is struck. Hezbollah retains a “qualitative missile arsenal” and could respond even in its weakened state

Direct Lebanon implication: If US-Iran military confrontation occurs, Lebanon becomes a frontline. Hezbollah — currently strategically restrained and committed to the ceasefire — would face maximum pressure to respond, potentially triggering a catastrophic re-escalation of conflict in south Lebanon, the Bekaa, and Beirut.

🔴 BREAKING #5 — HEZBOLLAH FORMALLY REJECTS PHASE 2 DISARMAMENT TIMELINE

[Times of Israel, Haaretz, Al Jazeera — confirmed Feb 17-18, continuing today]

Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem publicly rejected the government’s four-month Phase 2 disarmament timeline, calling it “a major mistake because this issue serves the goals of Israeli aggression.” Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah declared “we cannot be lenient.”

The Lebanese cabinet nonetheless formally adopted the Phase 2 plan. Information Minister Paul Morcos confirmed: “The required timeframe is four months, renewable depending on available capabilities, Israeli attacks and field obstacles.”

Hezbollah’s formal rejection creates a direct and unresolved confrontation with the state — now partially managed through the army’s “understandings” approach communicated to the Quintet today.

🔴 BREAKING #6 — GLYPHOSATE SPRAYING CONFIRMED: “ENVIRONMENTAL CRIME”

[Multiple confirmed sources]

Earlier this month (February 1), Israeli forces sprayed the herbicide glyphosate on the Lebanese side of the Blue Line border. President Aoun decried it as “a crime against the environment.” UNIFIL suspended operations for nine hours and collected samples. UN Secretary-General spokesman Stephane Dujarric expressed concern over “any activity putting peacekeepers and civilians at risk.” The UN OHCHR flagged long-term agricultural and health risks. Environmental activists have described Israel’s actions as a “scorched earth” strategy potentially amounting to ecocide.

🔴 BREAKING #7 — 64,000 DISPLACED; 330+ KILLED SINCE CEASEFIRE; 11,000+ VIOLATIONS

[Al Jazeera — Feb 3, 2026]

Israel has killed more than 330 people in Lebanon since the November 2024 ceasefire, including at least 127 civilians. Approximately 64,000 Lebanese remain displaced. UNIFIL has documented more than 11,000 Israeli ceasefire violations — 7,500 in Lebanese airspace and 2,500 on the ground. Hezbollah has launched only one retaliatory attack in the same period (December 2024, no casualties).

🔴 BREAKING #8 — RAMADAN DAY 2: FUEL PROTESTS CONTINUE; ECONOMIC CRISIS

[Naharnet, confirmed]

Lebanon has entered the second day of Ramadan with road-blocking protests continuing in Beirut and across Mount Lebanon. The cabinet’s decision to approve new fuel taxes and VAT increases sparked the protests on February 17. Taxi driver Ghayath Saadeh voiced collective frustration: “Everything is getting more expensive, food and drinks, and Ramadan is coming.” Finance Minister Jaber has defended the increases, citing fiscal necessity. Lebanese Army units have deployed along major highways to manage disruptions.

🔴 BREAKING #9 — PHASE 2 COVERAGE: LITANI TO AWALI (SIDON CORRIDOR) — UP TO 8 MONTHS

[Multiple sources confirmed]

Phase 2 covers the approximately 40km corridor between the Litani River and the Awali River north of Sidon — the most strategically sensitive stretch of Lebanese territory for Hezbollah’s infrastructure and community support. The army’s publicly stated minimum timeframe is four months, extendable. However, senior army sources have privately indicated the realistic timeline is up to eight months, given the complexity of the terrain, Hezbollah presence, and need for negotiated compliance over forced confrontation.

Phase 2 planning also outlines subsequent phases beyond Awali: north to Beirut, then the Bekaa Valley, then all of Lebanon — a multi-year project.

🔴 BREAKING #10 — PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS CONFIRMED: MAY 10, 2026

[Wikipedia — confirmed from Decree No. 2438, signed Feb 2, 2026]

President Aoun and Interior Minister Ahmad Hajjar signed Decree No. 2438 on February 2, setting election dates: expatriates vote May 1 and 3 depending on country; Lebanese citizens vote May 10, 2026. General elections will elect all 128 members of the Lebanese Parliament. All current political, security, and disarmament decisions are now being made against this approaching electoral deadline — just 80 days away.

🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY INDEX — THURSDAY FEBRUARY 19, 2026

🏙️ BEIRUT

Index: 83/100 🔴 | Trend: Stable-Elevated

The capital navigates Ramadan Day 2 amid three concurrent crises: domestic economic protest, the Hezbollah disarmament standoff, and the new and alarming Iran war risk factor placing Israel on maximum alert at Lebanon’s border.

Today’s Macron-to-Aoun invitation is diplomatically significant — co-chairing the Paris conference on March 5 elevates Lebanon’s standing and signals French-Saudi-US united backing for the army. Army Commander Haykal’s meeting with Parliament Speaker Berri today demonstrates that Phase 2 implementation is being managed through political channels, not brute force.

The Iran-nuclear dimension is Beirut’s newest and most dangerous variable. If US-Israeli military action against Iran materialises, Beirut could face Hezbollah re-mobilisation pressure, potential Israeli pre-emptive strikes, and the collapse of the fragile post-ceasefire framework. Lebanese officials and analysts are watching Geneva closely.

Fuel protests on Day 2 of Ramadan remain a flashpoint. Army deployments on major highways have partially managed disruptions but popular anger at fuel and VAT hikes persists.

Key Factors Today: Paris conference co-chair invitation; Iran war risk triggering Israeli maximum alert; Haykal-Berri meeting on Phase 2; fuel protest Day 2; electoral countdown (80 days to May 10).

🏞️ MOUNT LEBANON

Index: 78/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

Mount Lebanon continues absorbing displaced southern families, most receiving inadequate reconstruction support. Economic stress from fuel and VAT hikes compounds Ramadan household pressures. Road-blocking protests have affected major arteries linking Beirut to northern regions.

The Iran war risk factor adds a new destabilising dimension for this governorate: any escalation would displace Hezbollah fighters and infrastructure northward, dramatically changing the security calculus in areas currently considered relatively stable.

Parliamentary election fever is beginning to reshape political dynamics in Mount Lebanon’s mixed communities. The disarmament debate is cutting across sectarian lines in ways that will shape campaign positions.

Key Factor: Economic stress, displacement support gap, Iran escalation risk, and electoral politics converging in Ramadan period.

🌊 NORTH LEBANON & TRIPOLI

Index: 80/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

Tripoli remains deeply economically distressed. PM Salam’s recent visit underscored the severity of displacement and poverty in Lebanon’s second city. Fuel protests hit the north hard, with road blockages affecting commercial operations.

Two residential building collapses in Tripoli in recent weeks — leaving around 14 people dead — reflect the chronic infrastructure crisis compounding the city’s post-war vulnerability. These are not conflict-related but signal severe neglect and poverty.

Syria border tension persists: Lebanon-Syria relations remain strained over the presence of former Assad regime figures and their alleged destabilisation activities. Lebanese Army border operations continue at a heightened tempo.

Key Factor: Economic devastation, building collapse crisis, Syria border complexity, and Ramadan economic hardship converging in Lebanon’s most deprived major city.

🌲 AKKAR

Index: 81/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

Akkar’s proximity to Syria creates specific vulnerability as Lebanon-Syria border dynamics shift. The closure of four Syria-Lebanon border crossings by Israeli strikes on January 22 continues to affect cross-border commerce that Akkar communities depend on. Fuel price increases are acutely felt in one of Lebanon’s poorest governorates.

Lebanese Army border operations continue amid heightened cross-border tension. The Syria-Lebanon border is also a transit corridor for Iranian arms to Hezbollah — directly relevant to Phase 2 disarmament enforcement and Israeli targeting rationale.

Key Factor: Syrian border instability, border crossing closures, fuel crisis impact on Lebanon’s most economically vulnerable governorate.

🍇 BEQAA VALLEY

Index: 88/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ ESCALATING — IRAN WAR RISK FACTOR NOW DOMINANT

The Bekaa Valley is the highest-risk non-southern governorate in Lebanon today. Key factors:

Iran War Risk: The Bekaa is Hezbollah’s strategic rear and the primary corridor for Iranian weapons transfers. If Iran is struck by US-Israeli forces, the Bekaa will be the first Lebanese theatre of Hezbollah re-mobilisation. Israeli pre-emptive strikes targeting Hezbollah Bekaa infrastructure ahead of any Iran operation would be militarily logical and historically precedented.

Active Israeli Targeting: February 9-15 alone saw Israeli strikes across Houmine al Fawqa, Buslaya, Mlikh, Mount Rihan heights, and Sujod (Jezzine District border). The January 22 destruction of four Syria-Lebanon border crossings including in the Masna area severed key Bekaa commercial lifelines.

Glyphosate/Chemical Contamination: Spraying of toxic herbicide (confirmed glyphosate) on agricultural land near the Blue Line continues to threaten Bekaa farming communities’ livelihoods and health. The Bekaa’s agricultural economy is its lifeblood.

PIJ Targeting Precedent: The February 16 Israeli strike near Majdal Anjar killing four confirmed PIJ operatives establishes a new targeting category in the Bekaa — expanding from Hezbollah-only operations.

Phase 2 Implications: The Bekaa Valley is Phase 3 or 4 in the army’s disarmament plan (following the Awali corridor and Beirut suburbs). Hezbollah’s presence and community support in the Bekaa is deeper than anywhere else in Lebanon. Enforcement here remains a very long-term prospect.

Key Factor TODAY: Iran war risk is the new, dominant escalation driver for the Bekaa. Any US-Iran military exchange would instantly activate the Bekaa as a Hezbollah mobilisation zone and Israeli strike priority.

🕌 BAALBEK-HERMEL

Index: 90/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ CRITICAL ESCALATION RISK

Baalbek-Hermel remains at maximum danger and has increased in risk today given the Iran war factor. This is Hezbollah’s spiritual heartland, the location of some of its most strategic weapons infrastructure, and the primary Hezbollah-Iran overland corridor through Syria.

Israeli operations here have been sustained and intensifying: underground weapon storage sites near Baalbek and in the Hermel area were struck February 5 with “secondary explosions confirming weapons presence.” Israeli media reports that the army has completed preparations for a “potential large-scale attack” against Hezbollah positions if the Lebanese government fails to dismantle weapons.

The Hezbollah Phase 2 rejection is most acutely felt in Baalbek-Hermel, where any Lebanese Army disarmament operation would require direct confrontation with Hezbollah’s core community and infrastructure. The army’s “understandings approach” communicated to the Quintet today is specifically calibrated to avoid this.

Ramadan observances are severely disrupted by ongoing Israeli drone activity, economic crisis, and the looming shadow of potential wider escalation.

Key Factor: Most dangerous governorate for Iran-linked escalation; near-daily Israeli operations; Hezbollah Phase 2 resistance at maximum intensity; critical node if US-Iran conflict erupts.

🏛️ KESERWAN-JBEIL

Index: 76/100 🔴 | Trend: Stable-Elevated

Keserwan-Jbeil is less directly exposed to current kinetic threats but faces severe economic pressure from fuel and VAT hikes during Ramadan. The governorate’s economy depends heavily on domestic tourism and commerce — both suppressed by the broader national security environment.

The Iran war risk factor, while not directly targeting this governorate, creates systemic uncertainty that suppresses commercial activity and investor confidence. Parliamentary election activity is intensifying in the governorate’s mixed communities.

Key Factor: Economic hardship from fuel crisis; broader security uncertainty suppressing tourism and commerce; electoral campaign dynamics beginning.

🌴 SOUTH LEBANON

Index: 94/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ HIGHEST RISK IN COUNTRY

South Lebanon is the most dangerous governorate in Lebanon today. Multiple simultaneous active threats:

TODAY’S ATTACKS — CONFIRMED:

• Overnight Israeli airstrikes on Tabna (Sidon district) — arms depots and military sites claimed by IDF
• Israeli ground forces entered Yaroun and Khiam, detonating two houses
• Israeli drone dropped stun grenade on Odaysseh (today, Thursday)
• Four stun grenades dropped on Aita al-Shaab (yesterday, Wednesday, ongoing)

AITA AL-SHAAB HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE: This village — once home to approximately 15,000 residents — now has fewer than 52 inhabitants. The mayor has formally stated that stun grenades, incursions, and glyphosate spraying constitute “a strategy to pressure residents and force a gradual displacement.” This is systematic demographic displacement disguised as security operations.

FIVE OCCUPIED ISRAELI POSITIONS: Israel continues to occupy five strategic hilltop positions on Lebanese sovereign territory. The Lebanese Army has publicly stated these are the only areas in south Lebanon where it was unable to operate to remove Hezbollah weapons. These positions serve as launch points for ground incursions (today: Yaroun, Khiam).

PHASE 2 TABNA STRIKES — DEEPLY PROBLEMATIC: The overnight Tabna strikes are particularly alarming because Tabna is in the Sidon district — the heart of Phase 2 territory. Israeli airstrikes in the Phase 2 zone while the Lebanese Army is attempting negotiated disarmament directly validates Hezbollah’s argument that “disarmament under fire serves Israel’s goals.” This creates a profound contradiction at the heart of Lebanon’s strategy.

FEB 9-15 TOLL (LWJ CONFIRMED): Nine people killed in Israeli operations during this week alone, including a Lebanese Army officer and his three-year-old son (February 9) — a strike that provoked international condemnation. Lebanon denied the officer had Hezbollah ties; Israel alleged dual membership.

GLYPHOSATE CONTAMINATION: Agricultural land near the Blue Line confirmed contaminated with glyphosate herbicide (February 1 spraying). Farming communities in the Tyre and Bint Jbeil districts cannot safely work contaminated land during Ramadan — destroying livelihoods during the holy month.

RECONSTRUCTION BLOCKED: Israel has systematically targeted construction equipment being used to rebuild destroyed southern Lebanese homes, ensuring displaced families cannot return. Israel continues strikes on Phase 2 territory even while disarmament is underway.

Key Factor TODAY: Active strikes on Tabna (Sidon Phase 2 zone); ground incursions in Yaroun/Khiam; drone stun grenade on Odaysseh; forced displacement strategy in Aita al-Shaab; 94/100 — highest risk in Lebanon.

⛪ NABATIEH

Index: 92/100 🔴 | Trend: Critical-Active

Nabatieh Governorate — encompassing Bint Jbeil, Marjayoun, and Nabatieh districts — remains a sustained active operations zone.

Feb 9-15 Documented Operations (LWJ): Israeli forces struck across Aitaroun, Beit Lif, Blida, Ayta Ash Shaab, Kounine-Tiri, Yaroun (Bint Jbeil District); Al Amra, Blida, Deir Mimas, Houla, Kfar Kela, Markaba, Meiss al Jabal, Sarda (Marjayoun District); and Houmine al Fawqa (Nabatieh District).

On February 9 specifically: two Hezbollah operatives, a Lebanese Army officer (Warrant Officer-level), and the officer’s three-year-old son were killed in Israeli strikes. This tragedy — the killing of a toddler in an Israeli strike on a Lebanese military officer — was among the most condemned incidents of the post-ceasefire period.

The Kounine-Tiri junction strike (Feb 15) and ongoing artillery targeting of Yaroun reflect consistent, near-daily operations rather than isolated incidents.

The Israeli strategy of detonating houses in Yaroun and Khiam (documented today) forms part of a broader pattern of what the Aita al-Shaab mayor characterises as forced displacement — systematically making villages uninhabitable to prevent civilian and Hezbollah return.

UNIFIL has been repeatedly endangered: Israeli forces hit a UN position southwest of Yaroun with flare mortar rounds (Jan 12-18 period), and UNIFIL suspended operations for nine hours during the February 1 glyphosate spraying.

Key Factor: Near-daily Israeli operations; three-year-old killed in February 9 strike; systematic house demolitions forcing displacement; UNIFIL endangered; Hezbollah Phase 2 rejection creating army-community tension.

🎯 CRITICAL SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF — FEB 19, 2026

🔥 THREAT TIERING — THURSDAY FEBRUARY 19, 2026

TIER 1 — ACTIVE KINETIC THREATS (RIGHT NOW):

1. Tabna, Sidon District — Overnight airstrikes on claimed Hezbollah sites; Phase 2 corridor
2. Yaroun (Nabatieh) — Israeli ground forces entered today; houses detonated
3. Khiam (Nabatieh) — Israeli ground forces entered today; houses detonated
4. Odaysseh (today) — Drone stun grenade confirmed today
5. Aita al-Shaab (Nabatieh) — Four stun grenades Wednesday; systematic displacement strategy; 52 residents remain
6. All Blue Line territory — Glyphosate contamination zone; do not approach

TIER 2 — ESCALATION TRIGGERS (NEXT 72 HOURS): 7. Iran War Risk / Israeli Maximum Alert — If US-Iran military exchange occurs, all of Lebanon — especially Bekaa, Baalbek-Hermel, Beirut southern suburbs — becomes an active war zone 8. Phase 2 Friction Points — Any Lebanese Army attempt to seize Hezbollah arms north of Litani risks Hezbollah confrontation despite “understandings” approach; Bekaa and Nabatieh are highest friction points 9. Beirut Highways — Fuel protest road blockages continue; army deployed but situation fluid 10. Sidon Corridor (Litani to Awali) — Phase 2 zone; simultaneous Israeli strikes and army disarmament operations create contradictory and dangerous environment

TIER 3 — STRATEGIC RISKS (NEXT 30 DAYS): 11. Paris Conference (March 5) — Preparations underway; success or failure will determine international army support and momentum; Macron-Aoun co-chairing is positive signal 12. Parliamentary Elections (May 10) — Political calculations are distorting all security decisions; 80 days to election day 13. UNIFIL End-of-Mandate (Dec 31, 2026) — Post-UNIFIL security vacuum planning is now urgent; no replacement force confirmed 14. Syrian Border — Former Assad regime figures in Lebanon; Lebanon-Syria normalization fragile; Akkar and Hermel border corridors sensitive

⚠️ IRAN WAR RISK — SPECIAL ASSESSMENT

THIS IS TODAY’S MOST SIGNIFICANT NEW FACTOR.

The convergence of Israeli maximum alert on the Lebanon border, US military buildup (two carrier strike groups, 50+ F-35s/F-22s), US-Iran nuclear talks reaching a make-or-break stage, and Israeli PM Netanyahu preparing Home Front Command for war — all point to a genuine and elevated risk of US-Israeli military action against Iran within days to weeks.

For Lebanon, this means:

• Hezbollah re-mobilisation: Despite strategic restraint since November 2024 (only one retaliatory strike), Hezbollah would face overwhelming pressure to respond if Iran is attacked. Its missile arsenal — while degraded — is described by analysts as still “qualitatively significant”
• Pre-emptive Israeli strikes on Lebanon: Israel may conduct pre-emptive strikes against Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon (Bekaa, Baalbek, southern suburbs of Beirut) before or concurrent with any Iran operation
• Total ceasefire collapse: The November 2024 ceasefire framework — already violated 11,000+ times by Israel — would become void
• Displacement surge: A new conflict could displace far more than the current 64,000 still displaced; reconstruction destroyed; humanitarian crisis of 2024 scale or worse

Probability assessment: Elevated but uncertain. US-Iran nuclear talks are ongoing and Iran’s FM cited “progress on guiding principles.” However, Israeli media reports maximum alert and Netanyahu’s Home Front Command preparations suggest Israeli leadership believes probability is high.

CIS Security advises all clients to have emergency plans reviewed and updated immediately.

📊 LEBANON STATUS DASHBOARD — FEBRUARY 19, 2026

📱 SECURITY GUIDANCE — THURSDAY FEBRUARY 19, 2026

🏠 FOR RESIDENTS:

SOUTH LEBANON AND NABATIEH: Avoid entirely. Active Israeli ground incursions in Yaroun and Khiam today. Overnight strikes on Tabna. Stun grenades on Odaysseh. The Blue Line zone is contaminated with glyphosate. Do not attempt to return to destroyed villages without verified security clearance and health assessment of agricultural land. For families in Aita al-Shaab: 52 residents remain in conditions of systematic forced displacement pressure; the army and UNIFIL have been informed but cannot guarantee safety.

BEKAA VALLEY AND BAALBEK-HERMEL: Elevated danger TODAY beyond the normal high baseline due to Iran war risk. Israeli maximum alert on the Lebanon border means any Iran escalation would instantly activate Bekaa as a priority strike zone. Non-essential travel to Baalbek-Hermel should be deferred. Monitor situation hourly.

BEIRUT: Monitor fuel protest road blockages on major highways. Army is deployed; follow military routing guidance. The Iran war risk factor should prompt personal emergency planning: have a plan for shelter-in-place or evacuation if wider conflict erupts.

ALL GOVERNORATES: Ramadan Day 2 — the holy month continues amid active multi-front crisis. Community iftar gatherings in south Lebanon and Bekaa should exercise extreme caution given Israeli strike tempo. Mosques in conflict-adjacent zones remain elevated risk.

ECONOMIC ADVICE: Fuel and VAT increases are in effect. Budget carefully for Ramadan household needs. Government and Hezbollah reconstruction support remains wholly inadequate — rely on community and family networks.

🏢 FOR BUSINESSES:

• Iran war risk requires immediate business continuity review: if US-Iran conflict erupts, expect complete disruption to south Lebanon, Bekaa, and potentially Beirut operations
• Supply chain exposure in southern and Bekaa regions should be assessed given escalating Israeli strike tempo
• Paris conference (March 5) may bring international investment signals; monitor outcome for medium-term planning
• Fuel cost increases affect all transport-dependent operations; factor into Q1 cost planning
• Road blockage protocols should be established for alternative routes given ongoing protest disruptions

🚗 TRAVEL ADVISORY — TODAY:

🌙 RAMADAN RAMADAN SECURITY NOTE

Ramadan Day 2 (February 19) continues in conditions of active conflict, economic stress, and new Iranian regional escalation risk. The traditional spirit of Ramadan as a period of community, reflection, and generosity is being profoundly challenged by:

• Israeli operations continuing through the holy month (today: Tabna strikes, Yaroun/Khiam house demolitions, Odaysseh stun grenades)
• Fuel and VAT increases making Ramadan household budgets extremely strained
• 64,000 displaced Lebanese unable to observe Ramadan in their homes
• Families like those of Aita al-Shaab, Yaroun, and Khiam under systematic displacement pressure during the holy month
• The looming shadow of potential US-Iran conflict threatening to shatter the post-ceasefire environment entirely

CIS Security extends Ramadan Mubarak to all Lebanese communities and pledges enhanced community protection services throughout the holy month.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY PROFESSIONAL SERVICES — RAMADAN PERIOD 2026

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 — “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional” Lebanon’s Most Reviewed Security Company | 35+ Years Experience

ENHANCED RAMADAN AND CRISIS SERVICES:

Phase 2 Disarmament Monitoring Real-time intelligence on Lebanese Army operations north of Litani; Hezbollah friction point mapping; community tension early warning in Nabatieh, Bekaa, and Baalbek-Hermel

Iran War Risk Emergency Planning Scenario planning for US-Iran military escalation; evacuation route preparation; shelter-in-place protocols; business continuity for all Lebanese governorates

Israeli Operations Intelligence Tabna, Yaroun, Khiam, Odaysseh and all south Lebanon/Nabatieh operations tracked in real time; glyphosate contamination zone mapping; Blue Line incursion monitoring

Ramadan Community Security Professional protection for mosques, iftar gatherings, and Ramadan activities in elevated-risk zones; family security consulting for displaced households; community movement coordination

Economic Crisis Response Road blockage monitoring and alternative routing; supply chain protection during protests; fuel crisis logistics planning

Paris Conference Tracking (March 5) International support implications monitoring; Lebanese Army capability enhancement analysis; post-conference security environment assessment

📞 CONTACT CIS SECURITY

Emergency 24/7 Hotline: +961-3-539900 Website: www.cissecurity.net Services: Protective detail | Crisis intelligence | Route security | Community protection | Emergency planning | Business continuity

Serving all Lebanese governorates: Beirut | Mount Lebanon | North Lebanon & Tripoli | Akkar | Bekaa | Baalbek-Hermel | Keserwan-Jbeil | South Lebanon | Nabatieh

⚠️ CRITICAL OPERATIONAL NOTICE — FEBRUARY 19, 2026

NEW FACTOR TODAY: Israeli maximum alert on Lebanon border tied to US-Iran nuclear talks and potential military action. This is the most significant new escalation risk introduced in today’s index. All security plans should be reviewed for Iran-contingency scenarios immediately.

ACTIVE OPERATIONS TODAY: Tabna overnight strikes; Yaroun ground incursion; Khiam ground incursion; Odaysseh stun grenade. Israeli operations continue unabated despite Ramadan and Phase 2 disarmament launch.

DIPLOMATIC MOMENTUM: Macron-Aoun Paris co-chair confirmed (March 5); Quintet briefed on Phase 2 launch; Haykal meets Berri — positive diplomatic signals, but kinetic reality on the ground remains at critical intensity.

CIS SECURITY RECOMMENDS: All clients in south Lebanon, Nabatieh, Bekaa, and Baalbek-Hermel review emergency plans today. The Iran war risk factor is new and real. Update your security posture accordingly.

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ — Thursday, February 19, 2026 | Ramadan Day 2 Compiled from verified sources: Naharnet (multiple stories published today Feb 19); FDD Long War Journal (Feb 9-15 chronology); Al Jazeera; Times of Israel; Haaretz; Military Times; News24; The National; CNN; Anera Lebanon Activity Log; Wikipedia (2026 Lebanese Elections); L’Orient Today; Asharq Al-Awsat; CFR; UN OHCHR; UNIFIL All events cited are verified from named, credible news sources. Index updated 17:00 Lebanon time, Thursday February 19, 2026.