🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™ – Feb 22 2026

Sunday, February 22, 2026 | Ramadan Day 5

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL OVERALL INDEX: 91/100 — HIGHEST RATING TO DATE TREND: ⬆️⬆️ SHARPLY ESCALATING HEADLINE: DEADLIEST BEKAA STRIKE SINCE CEASEFIRE — 12 KILLED FRIDAY ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH — HEZBOLLAH VOWS RESISTANCE — CEASEFIRE COMMITTEE MEETING IN DANGER — IRAN NUCLEAR COUNTDOWN ACCELERATES

🚨 BREAKING DEVELOPMENTS — SUNDAY FEBRUARY 22, 2026

🔴 BREAKING #1 — DEADLIEST STRIKES SINCE CEASEFIRE: 12 KILLED FRIDAY FEBRUARY 20

[Al Jazeera, AP, Reuters, CBC, Times of Israel, Euronews — confirmed Feb 20-22]

In what is being described as one of the deadliest multi-strike episodes since the November 2024 ceasefire, Israeli forces carried out a devastating coordinated assault on Friday February 20, killing at least 12 people across eastern and southern Lebanon and wounding more than 50, including three children.

THE BEKAA MASSACRE — RIYAQ / BEDNAYEL / ALI AL-NAHRI / TEMNINE: Israeli warplanes struck three Hezbollah command centres in the Baalbek area late Friday just after sunset. One strike completely destroyed the upper floor of a three-storey residential building in Riyaq (Baalbek district). A second hit a building in Bednayel. A third struck in Ali al-Nahri, and further strikes hit Qasr Naba, Tamnine al-Tahta, and the Shaara area along the eastern mountain range foothills.

The Lebanese Health Ministry confirmed 10 people killed and 24 wounded in the eastern strikes, including three children. Lebanese security sources put the total at 10-12 dead and up to 50 wounded. Search and rescue teams worked through the night in rubble.

HEZBOLLAH CONFIRMS EIGHT MEMBERS KILLED: Two Hezbollah officials told the Associated Press that eight of their members — all attending a meeting when struck — were killed. Three commanders were identified: Ali al-Moussawi, Mohammed al-Moussawi, and Hussein Yaghi. Yaghi was the son of a Hezbollah founder and close aide to the late Hassan Nasrallah. A doctor at Rayak Hospital confirmed receiving ten bodies and treating 21 wounded, including a Syrian man and an Ethiopian woman.

THE EIN AL-HILWEH STRIKE — SIDON: Earlier Friday, an Israeli drone struck the Hittin neighbourhood of Ein al-Hilweh — Lebanon’s largest Palestinian refugee camp near Sidon — killing two people. Israel claimed it targeted a Hamas command centre. Hamas said the building belonged to the camp’s joint security force and was being rented to operate a food aid kitchen for Ramadan.

🔴 BREAKING #2 — HEZBOLLAH VOWS RESISTANCE: “WE HAVE NO OPTION”

[AFP, France24, Al-Monitor, AP — February 21-22, confirmed today]

The Friday strikes have triggered the most significant Hezbollah escalation threat since the ceasefire. Senior Hezbollah official Mahmud Qamati, speaking at a Beirut protest broadcast on Al-Manar network on Saturday, declared: the Bekaa strikes were “a new massacre and a new aggression.” He then delivered the most direct resistance threat in months, asking publicly what options were left beyond fighting back.

Separately, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem stated last month that any US or Israeli attack on Iran would be treated as an attack on Hezbollah itself — a statement that now carries acute urgency given the US-Iran nuclear deadline.

A mass funeral was held Saturday in Baalbek for commander Hussein Yaghi and another fighter, with hundreds gathering and waving Hezbollah flags. Funerals also took place in Nabi Sheet village. The public mourning is being watched closely as a potential mobilisation indicator.

🔴 BREAKING #3 — HEZBOLLAH DEMANDS SUSPENSION OF CEASEFIRE MONITORING COMMITTEE

[Arab News, Asharq Al-Awsat, AFP — February 21-22, confirmed today]

Hezbollah lawmaker Rami Abu Hamdan issued a formal demand Saturday that the Lebanese government suspend its participation in the multinational ceasefire monitoring committee — the five-party body that includes the United States, France, Lebanon, Israel, and the UN.

Abu Hamdan declared the group “will not accept the authorities acting as mere political analysts, dismissing these as Israeli strikes we have grown accustomed to before every meeting of the committee.” He called on Beirut to halt committee meetings “until the enemy ceases its attacks.”

This is critically important: The ceasefire committee is scheduled to meet this week. If Lebanon accedes to Hezbollah’s demand and suspends participation, the entire ceasefire monitoring architecture — already weakened by 11,000+ Israeli violations — collapses. If Lebanon refuses, Hezbollah’s political temperature rises further with elections 77 days away.

🔴 BREAKING #4 — PRESIDENT AOUN: STRIKES ARE “BLATANT ACT OF AGGRESSION AIMED AT THWARTING DIPLOMACY”

[PressTV, Yahoo News, Middle East Monitor — February 21-22, confirmed today]

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun issued his strongest condemnation to date in a Saturday statement, calling Friday’s strikes “a blatant act of aggression aimed at thwarting diplomatic efforts undertaken by Lebanon with sisterly and friendly countries, foremost among them the United States of America, to consolidate stability and halt Israeli hostile actions against Lebanon.”

Aoun stated the strikes represent “a new violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty and a clear breach of international obligations” and reflect “Israel’s disregard for the will of the international community.” He called on countries “sponsoring stability” to pressure Israel to halt attacks.

The statement is notable for naming the United States explicitly as a diplomatic partner — and implicitly challenging Washington to use its leverage over Israel. This comes just 11 days before the Paris conference on March 5, where Aoun is co-chairing alongside Macron.

🔴 BREAKING #5 — IRAN NUCLEAR COUNTDOWN: TRUMP THREATENS WAR; US-IRAN TALKS STRAINED

[Multiple sources — confirmed this weekend]

The single most dangerous strategic variable for Lebanon has intensified over this weekend. US-Iran indirect nuclear talks in Geneva (February 17) ended inconclusively, with US Vice President Vance saying Iran was “still unwilling to accept some of Trump’s nuclear red lines.” Iran’s FM described “progress on guiding principles” — but the gap remains.

US President Donald Trump has explicitly threatened military action if talks fail. Israeli PM Netanyahu has prepared Home Front Command and emergency services. Two US carrier strike groups — USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford — are positioned in the region with 50+ advanced fighter jets.

Hezbollah’s specific warning on this point: Naim Qassem said last month that an attack on Iran would also be an attack on Hezbollah. Senior Hezbollah official Qamati’s “we have no option but resistance” statement this weekend is being read by analysts in this US-Iran context as well as in the immediate Lebanon context.

Prediction market Polymarket currently prices a US or Israeli strike on Iran before December 31, 2026 at 77%. The next US-Iran negotiating round is expected within days.

🔴 BREAKING #6 — MASS FUNERALS IN BAALBEK; BULLDOZERS CLEAR BEKAA RUBBLE

[AP, AFP — confirmed February 21-22]

Scenes from the Bekaa this weekend tell the full story of the humanitarian toll. An AFP correspondent on the ground in eastern Lebanon Saturday witnessed a bulldozer clearing debris from the strike on Bednayel and a heavily damaged building between Riyaq and Ali al-Nahri. The raids targeted buildings in residential areas. The Anadolu Agency photographed extensive destruction in the village of Aali al-Nahri, with multiple buildings and vehicles destroyed. Mourners in Nabi Sheet carried the coffins of three Hezbollah fighters killed in the strikes. A mass funeral in Baalbek drew hundreds.

Rayak Hospital treated the wounded through the night. Among those injured: a Syrian woman named Razan al-Jassem and a Syrian man named Menisa Taha, photographed receiving treatment — a reminder that the Bekaa’s vulnerable Syrian refugee population is also absorbing the toll of Israeli strikes.

🔴 BREAKING #7 — PHASE 2 DISARMAMENT: ARMY PUSHES FORWARD DESPITE HEZBOLLAH REJECTION AND NEW STRIKES

[Al Jazeera, The National, multiple sources — confirmed]

Despite Hezbollah’s formal rejection of the Phase 2 timeline and Friday’s devastating strikes in the Phase 2 corridor, the Lebanese Army is pressing ahead. Phase 2 covers the Litani-to-Awali River corridor — a 40-50km zone extending to Sidon — and is described by French diplomatic sources as “more delicate, since it also extends beyond UNIFIL’s area of operations, complicating enforcement in areas where no troops are deployed.”

A Lebanese military source confirmed: “The foundation is civil peace. The army will avoid anything that would degenerate into civil conflict.” The preferred approach is negotiated compliance — but Friday’s Bekaa strikes, celebrated in Hezbollah communities as martyrdom and condemned as Israeli aggression, make the political environment for negotiated compliance far more difficult.

Lebanese Army Commander Gen. Haykal is set to brief on Phase 2 specifics at the Paris conference on March 5. France has described Phase 2 as the critical test of whether Lebanon can convince international partners it is serious about state sovereignty.

🔴 BREAKING #8 — AIN AL-HILWEH REFUGEE CAMP TARGETED: RAMADAN AID KITCHEN STRUCK

[Al Jazeera, Times of Israel, Hamas statement — confirmed]

Friday’s strike on Ein al-Hilweh refugee camp has generated additional international concern. The Hittin neighbourhood was targeted by an Israeli drone, killing two people. Hamas says the struck building “belongs to the joint security force charged with the camp’s security” and was being rented to operate a food aid kitchen distributing Ramadan meals. This account is being disputed by Israel, which insists it was a Hamas command centre.

Regardless of the ultimate truth of the targeting claim, the optics of striking a building distributing Ramadan food aid in Lebanon’s largest Palestinian refugee camp — on the fifth day of Ramadan — is diplomatically and politically explosive. Hamas formally condemned the attack and called it a crime against civilians.

The Ein al-Hilweh camp hosts tens of thousands of Palestinian refugees and has historically been a zone of competing armed Palestinian factions. Israeli strikes here expand the targeting envelope beyond Hezbollah.

🔴 BREAKING #9 — RAMADAN DAY 5: AID DISTRIBUTIONS CONTINUING AMID STRIKES

[Anera Lebanon Activity Log — confirmed]

Humanitarian organisation Anera reports that today (Sunday February 22) marks the fifth day of Ramadan distributions, with five simultaneous operations across South Lebanon and Beirut reaching more than 1,000 families. Preparations for Bekaa Ramadan interventions are underway to cover 32 villages across the governorate, targeting 2,800 food parcels, including in red-zone areas such as Janta, Yahfoufa, and Ham.

This humanitarian work is proceeding in direct parallel with Israeli strikes in many of the same zones. The targeting of the Ein al-Hilweh Ramadan food kitchen underlines the extreme vulnerability of humanitarian operations in this environment.

🔴 BREAKING #10 — ELECTORAL COUNTDOWN: 77 DAYS TO ELECTIONS; DIPLOMATS WARN OF PARALYSIS

[Multiple diplomatic sources, confirmed]

Lebanese parliamentary elections are now 77 days away (May 10, 2026). Senior European and US diplomats are warning that the approaching electoral deadline is already compromising disarmament: “Aoun doesn’t want to make the disarming process too public because he fears it will antagonize and provoke tensions with the Shi’ite community in the south of the country,” one senior diplomat told Reuters. Washington Institute analysts warn that “the current political momentum must be sustained through the next legislative election” — and that Hezbollah, despite military weakening, “still enjoys considerable representation in parliament.”

Friday’s strikes — and the Hezbollah funerals and resistance vows this weekend — will shape the electoral narrative in Shi’ite communities in ways that directly complicate disarmament compliance.

🌡️ FULL GOVERNORATE SECURITY INDEX — SUNDAY FEBRUARY 22, 2026

🏙️ BEIRUT — Index: 84/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ RISING

Status: Critical — Political Rupture; Hezbollah Mobilisation Signals; Iran Threat

Sunday’s Beirut woke to a city managing the political and emotional fallout of the deadliest Bekaa strikes since the ceasefire. The Hezbollah resistance vow from senior official Qamati — broadcast nationally on Al-Manar — represents the most explicit public escalation threat since November 2024. President Aoun’s sharp condemnation naming US diplomatic efforts directly challenges Washington ahead of the Paris conference.

The immediate political crisis for the government is the Hezbollah demand to suspend ceasefire committee meetings. The committee meets this week. Lebanon faces a choice with no good options: comply with Hezbollah’s demand and damage the diplomatic architecture, or refuse and face intensified Hezbollah political pressure 77 days before elections.

The Iran nuclear deadline looms over all of Beirut’s calculations. Hezbollah’s explicit linkage of any Iran attack to its own response means that the US-Iran nuclear negotiating room in Geneva is now directly Lebanon’s national security concern.

Ramadan Day 5 fuel protest disruptions have eased somewhat with army highway management, but economic hardship persists with fuel and VAT increases still in effect.

Key Factors Today: Hezbollah resistance vow; committee suspension demand; Aoun’s sharpest condemnation yet; Iran nuclear escalation risk; 77 days to elections; Paris conference (March 5) preparation under severe political pressure.

🏞️ MOUNT LEBANON — Index: 78/100 🔴 | Trend: Stable-Elevated

Status: Critical — Economic Pressure; Displacement Burden; Electoral Tension

Mount Lebanon continues absorbing displaced southern and Bekaa families. Saturday’s Hezbollah funerals and protests drew participants from communities across Mount Lebanon, reflecting the political resonance of the Bekaa strikes in Shi’ite communities in this governorate. Electoral dynamics are sharpening: Hezbollah’s “resistance” narrative is being sharpened by Friday’s strikes into an electoral message.

Economic conditions remain severe. Fuel and VAT increases continue in effect through Ramadan. Displaced families in Mount Lebanon receive inadequate reconstruction support with no clear timeline for safe return.

Key Factor: Hezbollah resistance messaging from Friday’s strikes is sharpening electoral dynamics in Mount Lebanon’s mixed communities 77 days before elections.

🌊 NORTH LEBANON & TRIPOLI — Index: 79/100 🔴 | Trend: Stable-Elevated

Status: Critical — Building Collapse Crisis; Economic Devastation; Syria Border Tension

Tripoli continues to grapple with the aftermath of two residential building collapses in the past month that killed around 14 people — a crisis reflecting chronic infrastructure neglect compounding the post-war economic catastrophe. Two families remain displaced from the second collapse with no clear support pathway.

The city’s Ramadan economic hardship is acute. Fuel price increases hit Tripoli’s already-impoverished communities hardest. Syria border traffic disruption from the January 22 Israeli strikes on four border crossings continues to affect northern Lebanese commerce.

Key Factor: Infrastructure collapse crisis, economic devastation, and Ramadan hardship converge in Lebanon’s most impoverished major city.

🌲 AKKAR — Index: 80/100 🔴 | Trend: Stable-Elevated

Status: Critical — Syria Border Sensitivity; Economic Hardship

Akkar’s Syrian border proximity creates ongoing vulnerability. The Lebanon-Syria relationship remains strained over the presence of former Assad regime figures — with one such figure already killed in a Lebanese mountain village in recent weeks. Lebanese Army border operations continue at heightened tempo.

Border crossing closures from the January 22 Israeli strikes continue to affect Akkar’s cross-border trade. Ramadan economic hardship is severe in one of Lebanon’s most deprived governorates.

Key Factor: Syria border tension and economic hardship in Lebanon’s most economically vulnerable region.

🍇 BEQAA VALLEY — Index: 93/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️⬆️ SHARPLY ESCALATING — HIGHEST SINCE CEASEFIRE

Status: CRITICAL ACTIVE WAR ZONE — DEADLIEST STRIKES SINCE NOVEMBER 2024

The Bekaa Valley has suffered its worst single day of strikes since the ceasefire. Friday’s attacks on Riyaq, Bednayel, Ali al-Nahri, Temnine, Qasr Naba, and the Shaara foothills have collectively killed at least 10 people in the east and wounded up to 50. Search and rescue operations continued through the night into Saturday.

TODAY (Sunday February 22): The Bekaa is in a state of active post-strike emergency. Bulldozers are clearing rubble in Bednayel and Ali al-Nahri. Rayak Hospital remains at elevated capacity with the wounded. Funerals of Saturday drew hundreds in Baalbek and Nabi Sheet, with overt resistance messaging.

Strategic Significance: The Bekaa is Hezbollah’s core zone for the following reasons — all of which are directly relevant to today’s security assessment:

• Primary corridor for Iranian arms transfers via Syria
• Location of Hezbollah’s missile infrastructure (specifically targeted Friday)
• Hezbollah’s political and community heartland
• Phase 3-4 of Lebanese Army disarmament plan (years away from enforcement)
• Primary escalation theatre if US-Iran conflict erupts

The Syrian refugee population of the Bekaa is also absorbing the strike toll, as evidenced by the Syrian and Ethiopian victims in Rayak Hospital. International humanitarian organisations including Anera are conducting Ramadan distributions in Bekaa red-zone villages including Janta, Yahfoufa, and Ham — within active strike areas.

Key Factor TODAY: Bekaa is the single most dangerous governorate in Lebanon as of this morning. Friday’s strikes were the deadliest since the ceasefire. Hezbollah’s resistance vow specifically invoked the Bekaa. Iran escalation risk makes the Bekaa the primary escalation theatre. 93/100.

🕌 BAALBEK-HERMEL — Index: 92/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ CRITICAL

Status: CRITICAL — Mass Funerals; Active Strike Zone; Resistance Mobilisation

Baalbek is today the emotional and political epicentre of Lebanon’s crisis. The mass funeral for commander Hussein Yaghi drew hundreds in the city this weekend, with Hezbollah flags and resistance chants. This is Hezbollah’s spiritual capital — the area where its political and military identity is most deeply rooted.

Friday’s strikes targeted three Hezbollah “command centres” in the Baalbek area. The IDF stated the targets were Hezbollah missile force personnel “operating to accelerate readiness and force build-up processes, while planning fire attacks toward Israel.” This is the most direct Israeli claim of active Hezbollah war preparation in Lebanon since the ceasefire — and if accurate, represents a significant escalation in Hezbollah’s own behaviour, not just Israel’s.

The Hermel sub-district’s border corridor to Syria remains the primary arms transfer route and is consequently a permanent Israeli targeting priority.

Key Factor: Mass funerals and resistance mobilisation today; Friday strikes described as one of the deadliest in post-ceasefire Lebanon; Hezbollah missile force specifically targeted; arms corridor to Syria permanently exposed to strikes.

🏛️ KESERWAN-JBEIL — Index: 74/100 🔴 | Trend: Stable

Status: Elevated — Economic Pressure; Broader Security Environment

Keserwan-Jbeil remains the least directly exposed governorate to kinetic threats but faces ongoing economic pressure from Ramadan fuel and VAT increases. The broader national security environment — Friday’s mass-casualty strikes, Hezbollah’s resistance vow, Iran escalation risk — suppresses commercial and tourism activity. Electoral campaign dynamics in this predominantly Christian governorate are intensifying.

Key Factor: Economic hardship and national security environment supressing commerce; electoral campaign beginning to intensify.

🌴 SOUTH LEBANON — Index: 94/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ SUSTAINED CRITICAL

Status: CRITICAL — Active Operations Zone; Phase 2 Disarmament Flashpoint; Five Occupied Points

South Lebanon remains the highest-risk governorate for kinetic conflict on a daily basis.

ONGOING SITUATION: Israeli operations in south Lebanon have continued through this weekend. The five Israeli-occupied strategic hilltop positions on Lebanese sovereign territory remain unchanged — blocking civilian return, reconstruction, and Lebanese Army full operational deployment. These positions serve as permanent launch points for ground incursions into Lebanese villages.

EIN AL-HILWEH (SIDON DISTRICT): Friday’s Israeli drone strike on the Hittin neighbourhood of Ein al-Hilweh camp killed two people. This is in the heart of the Phase 2 Litani-Awali corridor. Israeli simultaneous strikes on Phase 2 territory while the Lebanese Army is attempting negotiated disarmament directly undermines the state’s diplomatic strategy — and Hezbollah’s argument that “disarmament under fire serves Israeli goals” becomes harder to refute.

GLYPHOSATE CONTAMINATION: Agricultural communities near the Blue Line continue to deal with the February 1 glyphosate spraying. The UN OHCHR has formally raised serious concern. Farming livelihoods in the Tyre and Bint Jbeil districts are threatened. No Israeli acknowledgment of wrongdoing has been made.

DISPLACEMENT: 64,000 Lebanese remain displaced across the country. Many cannot return to destroyed border villages due to the five occupied Israeli positions, ongoing strikes, and contaminated land. Reconstruction is systematically blocked: Israel has repeatedly struck construction equipment being used to rebuild destroyed southern Lebanese homes.

RAMADAN AID: Humanitarian organisations including Anera are distributing Ramadan food parcels in south Lebanon communities under active Israeli operations. Five simultaneous aid distributions reached 1,000+ families today.

Key Factor: Sustained near-daily operations; five occupied positions; Ein al-Hilweh strike in Phase 2 zone; glyphosate contamination; reconstruction blocked; 64,000 displaced; aid distributions proceeding in active strike zones.

⛪ NABATIEH — Index: 91/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ SUSTAINED CRITICAL

Status: CRITICAL — Active Operations Zone; Systematic Displacement; Army-Community Tension

Nabatieh Governorate’s Bint Jbeil District continues to experience near-daily Israeli drone, stun grenade, ground incursion, and artillery operations. Thursday’s stun grenade on Odaysseh (confirmed in prior update), Wednesday’s four stun grenades on Aita al-Shaab, and prior ground incursions into Yaroun and Khiam represent a sustained operational tempo that is deliberately targeting civilian willingness to remain in border villages.

Aita al-Shaab — with only 52 residents remaining out of a pre-war population of approximately 15,000 — is the clearest example of systematic Israeli pressure forcing de facto demographic emptying of Lebanese villages.

Hezbollah retains deep political and social roots in Nabatieh, creating a direct friction point for Phase 2 disarmament enforcement. The army’s stated approach of “negotiated compliance” is most severely tested in Nabatieh’s Bint Jbeil and Marjayoun districts, where community identification with Hezbollah is strongest.

The death of a Lebanese Army warrant officer and his three-year-old son in a February 9 Israeli strike — which Lebanon denied had any Hezbollah connection — remains a raw wound in Lebanese military morale and national consciousness.

Key Factor: Systematic near-daily operations; Aita al-Shaab demographic emptying; army-community friction for Phase 2; Lebanese Army officer and toddler killed by Israeli strike; resistance vow from Hezbollah following Bekaa strikes creates new political pressure on border communities.

🎯 CRITICAL SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF — SUNDAY FEBRUARY 22, 2026

🔥 THREAT TIERING — RIGHT NOW

TIER 1 — ACTIVE / IMMEDIATE (PAST 48 HOURS):

1. Bekaa Valley (Riyaq, Bednayel, Ali al-Nahri, Temnine) — SITE OF FRIDAY’S DEADLIEST STRIKES; rubble clearance ongoing; 10 dead, 50 wounded; Hezbollah resistance vow issued here
2. Baalbek (Nabi Sheet, Hermel corridor) — Mass funerals Saturday; resistance mobilisation; missile force infrastructure specifically targeted; Hezbollah’s core zone
3. Ein al-Hilweh Refugee Camp (Sidon) — Two killed Friday; Ramadan food aid kitchen allegedly struck; Hamas command centre claimed by IDF; major international incident
4. All South Lebanon / Nabatieh — Sustained operations continuing; ground incursions Yaroun/Khiam; stun grenades Odaysseh/Aita al-Shaab; glyphosate contamination Blue Line zone
5. Five Israeli Occupied Points — Permanent flashpoints blocking return and reconstruction

TIER 2 — ESCALATION TRIGGERS (NEXT 72 HOURS): 6. Ceasefire Committee Meeting This Week — Hezbollah demands suspension; Lebanon’s response determines fate of monitoring architecture; critical political decision for Aoun government 7. Iran Nuclear Talks — Next negotiating round expected imminently; US-Iran breakdown could trigger US-Israeli military action activating Lebanon as front line; Hezbollah explicitly linked its response to any Iran attack 8. Phase 2 Disarmament Friction — Army attempting Phase 2 amid Hezbollah rejection and fresh Israeli strikes in the same zone (Ein al-Hilweh); contradiction deepens 9. Hezbollah Resistance Mobilisation — “We have no option but resistance” — Qamati’s statement on Al-Manar is the most explicit escalation signal since the ceasefire; probability of response incident is elevated

TIER 3 — STRATEGIC RISKS (NEXT 30 DAYS): 10. Paris Conference March 5 — Macron co-chairs with Aoun; Haykal presents Phase 2 specifics; success/failure determines international army support and Lebanese diplomatic leverage; Friday’s strikes will test allied determination to support disarmament 11. Parliamentary Elections May 10 — 77 days; Hezbollah’s resistance narrative strengthened by Bekaa strikes; anti-disarmament electoral messaging will intensify 12. UNIFIL Mandate Expires Dec 31, 2026 — Post-UNIFIL security vacuum planning urgent; no replacement force confirmed; 315 days remain

⚠️ CEASEFIRE COLLAPSE RISK — SPECIAL ASSESSMENT

This is the highest ceasefire collapse risk since November 2024.

The convergence of the following simultaneous factors on this single weekend represents a genuinely unprecedented threat to Lebanon’s fragile post-war framework:

• Deadliest Bekaa strikes since the ceasefire — 12 killed Friday; three Hezbollah commanders identified by name
• Explicit Hezbollah resistance vow — “We have no option” — on Al-Manar Saturday
• Demand to suspend ceasefire committee — The only institutional mechanism to manage violations
• Iran nuclear deadline — US-Iran talks strained; military action risk priced at 77% by year-end
• Hezbollah-Iran linkage — Qassem stated attack on Iran = attack on Hezbollah
• Elections 77 days away — Political incentives pushing all parties toward confrontation over compromise
• 11,000+ Israeli violations — Ceasefire framework already paper-thin
• Phase 2 disarmament rejected — No Hezbollah cooperation; army operating on “understandings” that are now under maximum political pressure

In this environment, a single additional incident — a Hezbollah retaliatory strike, an Israeli strike on Beirut suburbs, or a US-Iran military exchange — could trigger full ceasefire collapse.

CIS Security advises all clients to treat this as an emergency preparedness moment. Review your evacuation, shelter, and communications plans immediately.

📊 LEBANON MASTER STATUS DASHBOARD — FEBRUARY 22, 2026

📱 SECURITY GUIDANCE — SUNDAY FEBRUARY 22, 2026

🏠 FOR RESIDENTS AND FAMILIES:

BEKAA VALLEY — EMERGENCY LEVEL: Following Friday’s mass-casualty strikes in Riyaq, Bednayel, Ali al-Nahri, Temnine, and surrounding areas, the Bekaa Valley is now at emergency security level. Avoid all non-essential travel throughout the governorate. The Baalbek area in particular is a sustained Israeli targeting priority and is in active mourning with large gatherings — which themselves present security vulnerabilities. If you are in the Bekaa, know your nearest shelter and have an exit route planned.

SOUTH LEBANON AND NABATIEH: Do not travel. Sustained Israeli operations continue. Ground incursions have been documented in Yaroun and Khiam this week. Glyphosate contamination near the Blue Line presents health risks. Do not attempt return to destroyed border villages without verified safe conditions. Avoid areas near the five Israeli occupied positions.

EIN AL-HILWEH AND SIDON OUTSKIRTS: Following Friday’s drone strike, avoid the camp’s Hittin neighbourhood and immediate surroundings. Exercise caution throughout the Sidon area — this is Phase 2 disarmament territory under simultaneous Israeli operations and Lebanese Army activity.

BAALBEK AND HERMEL: Avoid non-essential travel. Mass funerals and resistance gatherings today present potential security risks both from crowd dynamics and from potential follow-on Israeli monitoring of gatherings. The Hermel corridor to Syria is an active Israeli targeting zone.

BEIRUT: Monitor political developments closely. Hezbollah’s resistance vow and committee suspension demand create an unpredictable political environment. Be aware of Hezbollah-affiliated neighbourhood security dynamics in the southern suburbs. Maintain emergency plans.

ALL RAMADAN GATHERINGS: Exercise heightened awareness at iftar events and mosque gatherings in south Lebanon, Nabatieh, and Bekaa. Israeli operations have continued and intensified through the holy month.

ECONOMIC ADVICE: Fuel and VAT increases remain in effect through Ramadan. Budget carefully. Seek community mutual support networks — formal government and Hezbollah reconstruction assistance remains wholly inadequate for the 64,000+ displaced.

🏢 FOR BUSINESSES:

• EMERGENCY REVIEW REQUIRED: Friday’s mass-casualty strikes and Hezbollah’s resistance vow represent the highest ceasefire collapse risk since November 2024. All businesses should review business continuity and emergency protocols immediately
• Bekaa and south Lebanon operations should be treated as operating in active conflict conditions
• Supply chain exposure in eastern and southern Lebanon requires immediate reassessment
• If US-Iran military exchange occurs, expect total disruption of Bekaa, south Lebanon, Baalbek-Hermel, and potentially Beirut southern suburbs
• Paris conference (March 5) outcome may determine international investment climate for Q2 2026; monitor closely
• Syrian border crossings remain damaged from January 22 strikes; alternative logistics routes required for cross-border commerce

🚗 TRAVEL ADVISORY — FEBRUARY 22, 2026:

🌙 RAMADAN DAY 5 — SECURITY NOTE

The fifth day of Ramadan (February 22, 2026) arrives with Lebanon in its most acute security crisis since the November 2024 ceasefire. The spirit of the holy month — community, reflection, family, generosity — is being confronted by:

• The deadliest post-ceasefire strikes killing 12 people on Friday, including Hezbollah commanders in Ramadan-period meetings
• A Ramadan food aid kitchen in Ein al-Hilweh refugee camp struck in the same attack wave
• 64,000 Lebanese unable to observe Ramadan in their homes after 15+ months of displacement
• Mass funerals in Baalbek on Saturday drawing hundreds in open expressions of grief and resistance
• Hezbollah’s explicit vow that “we have no option but resistance” — issued during the holy month
• Humanitarian aid distributions proceeding in active strike zones across south Lebanon and Bekaa

Anera’s Ramadan distribution teams are today reaching 1,000+ families across South Lebanon and Beirut, with Bekaa preparations covering 32 villages including red-zone areas. CIS Security extends Ramadan Mubarak to all Lebanese communities and is committed to facilitating safe humanitarian operations throughout the holy month.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY PROFESSIONAL SERVICES — EMERGENCY RAMADAN PERIOD

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 — “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional” Lebanon’s Most Reviewed Security Company | 35+ Years Experience

EMERGENCY SERVICES — CRITICAL PERIOD FEBRUARY 22, 2026:

Post-Strike Emergency Response (Bekaa) Real-time intelligence on Riyaq, Bednayel, Ali al-Nahri, and Temnine post-strike conditions; route assessment for humanitarian and emergency access; coordination with Lebanese Army and Civil Defense in active rubble clearance zones.

Ceasefire Collapse Planning Scenario planning for total ceasefire collapse triggered by Hezbollah response, US-Iran military action, or Israeli Beirut-area strikes; evacuation route planning; safe house protocols; communications continuity.

Iran War Risk Emergency Planning Full scenario planning for US-Israeli military action against Iran and Hezbollah’s stated response; Bekaa Valley emergency protocols; Baalbek-Hermel evacuation scenarios; national communications and logistics planning.

Phase 2 Disarmament Zone Monitoring Litani-Awali corridor intelligence; Lebanese Army operational tracking; Hezbollah friction point assessment; early warning for community tension escalation.

Ramadan Humanitarian Security Protection for aid distribution teams operating in red-zone Bekaa villages (Janta, Yahfoufa, Ham); convoy security for Ramadan food distribution in south Lebanon; coordination with Anera and other humanitarian organisations operating in active strike zones.

Bekaa and South Lebanon Evacuation Verified evacuation routes from Riyaq, Baalbek, Hermel, Nabatieh, and Blue Line villages; family security consulting for displaced households; coordination with Lebanese Army checkpoints.

Business Continuity Emergency Review Immediate business continuity assessment for operations in south Lebanon, Bekaa, and Baalbek-Hermel; alternative supply chain routing; emergency protocols for Iran-contingency scenario.

📞 CONTACT CIS SECURITY — EMERGENCY LINE ACTIVE

Emergency 24/7 Hotline: +961-3-539900 Website: www.cissecurity.net

Serving all Lebanese governorates: Beirut | Mount Lebanon | North Lebanon & Tripoli | Akkar | Bekaa | Baalbek-Hermel | Keserwan-Jbeil | South Lebanon | Nabatieh

⚠️ CRITICAL OPERATIONAL NOTICE — FEBRUARY 22, 2026

THIS IS THE HIGHEST OVERALL INDEX READING IN THE HISTORY OF THIS REPORT: 91/100.

The simultaneous convergence of Friday’s mass-casualty Bekaa strikes (deadliest since ceasefire), Hezbollah’s “we have no option but resistance” vow, the demand to suspend the ceasefire committee, the US-Iran nuclear standoff with war risk priced at 77%, mass funerals in Baalbek today, Phase 2 disarmament in friction, and 77 days to elections represents an unprecedented threat matrix.

The next 72-96 hours are the most critical period for Lebanese security since November 27, 2024.

The ceasefire committee meeting scheduled this week is the immediate flashpoint. The US-Iran nuclear negotiating round expected imminently is the strategic flashpoint. The Paris conference on March 5 is the diplomatic lifeline — but it is now 11 days away, and much can happen.

CIS Security’s professional guidance: Treat this as an emergency. Review your plans. Be ready to move.

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ — Sunday, February 22, 2026 | Ramadan Day 5 All events cited are verified from named, credible international news sources including: AFP, AP (published CBC News, GoSkagit, NBC News), Reuters, Al Jazeera, Euronews, France24, Times of Israel, Middle East Monitor, Arab News, Asharq Al-Awsat, PressTV, Korea Herald, Japan Today, Al-Monitor, Anadolu Agency/Bernama, Anera Lebanon Activity Log, Wikipedia (2026 Lebanese elections), The National, Sharecafe/AFP, Mission Network News, Brussels Morning, National Herald India, Polymarket prediction markets. CIS Lebanon Security Index™ — Updated 11:00 AM Lebanon Time, Sunday February 22, 2026 – cedarlink.co