CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Nov 5 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🟠 ELEVATED – ONE-YEAR CEASEFIRE ANNIVERSARY & LAF DISARMAMENT ADVANCING
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 75/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⬇️ CAUTIOUS STABILIZATION – LAF PROGRESS BUT VIOLATIONS CONTINUE

🚨 BREAKING: TUESDAY NOVEMBER 5 – APPROACHING ONE-YEAR CEASEFIRE ANNIVERSARY

IMMEDIATE CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS:

ONE-YEAR CEASEFIRE ANNIVERSARY APPROACHING: Lebanon approaches November 26-27 marking one year since November 2024 cessation-of-hostilities arrangement between Israel and Lebanon, with arrangement continuing to hold despite systematic violations as LAF advances disarmament operations.

FRIDAY: LEBANON WARNS HAMAS AGAINST ATTACKS: Higher Defence Council Friday issued warning to Hamas stating Lebanon must not be used as launchpad for instability or be dragged into unnecessary wars, as country faces growing US pressure to disarm groups outside state control following 14-month Israel-Hezbollah war.

LAF DISARMAMENT PLAN FIRST PHASE PROGRESSING: Lebanese Armed Forces three-month first phase of five-stage plan targeting December 2025 weapons monopoly continues advancing with international support, though Hezbollah representatives state several times group will not disarm arguing Israeli strikes and occupied positions must be addressed first.

500+ ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES SINCE CEASEFIRE: Israeli forces confirmed carrying out over 500 airstrikes since November 2024 ceasefire on what it alleges are Hezbollah targets, with LAF recording almost daily violations demonstrating systematic operations pattern.

SATURDAY’S KOUNINE STRIKE KILLS HEZBOLLAH MEMBER: IDF Saturday killed “Hezbollah maintenance officer” in strike on southern Lebanon town of Kounine, continuing pattern of near-daily operations targeting operatives and infrastructure despite ceasefire.

SATURDAY’S KFAR ROUMMANE DRONE STRIKE: Lebanese media reports Saturday Israeli drone strike against car in southern Lebanon town of Kfar Roummane near Nabatieh with no immediate IDF comment – demonstrating vehicle targeting pattern continuing.

US ENVOY: HEZBOLLAH HAS “THOUSANDS OF ROCKETS”: US Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack stated Israel continuing strikes in southern Lebanon because Hezbollah still possesses “thousands of rockets and missiles threatening it” while urging Lebanese leaders to accelerate disarmament.

ISRAEL MAINTAINS 5 POSITIONS IN LEBANON: IDF continues occupying five positions in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire requiring withdrawal, with Prime Minister Netanyahu stating withdrawal “conditional on Lebanese army deploying in southern Lebanon and fully and effectively enforcing agreement.”

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 68/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Friday’s Hamas Warning and LAF Progress. The capital coordinates environment as Higher Defence Council Friday warns Hamas while LAF’s first phase disarmament plan advances toward December 2025 weapons monopoly.

Government facilities manage complex situation with Friday’s statement that Lebanon must not be used as launchpad while coordinating LAF advancement despite 500+ Israeli airstrikes since ceasefire.

The combination of Friday’s Hamas warning, LAF’s disarmament first phase progress, 500+ airstrikes documented, and approaching one-year ceasefire anniversary creates elevated transitional environment.

Economic activities face cautious improvement from LAF’s progress while 500+ strikes and near-daily violations demonstrate continuing security challenges.

Security coordination advances with LAF’s disarmament plan first phase while managing Friday’s Hamas warning and Saturday’s southern Lebanon strikes.

Key Factor: Capital coordinating Friday’s Hamas warning and LAF first phase advancement despite 500+ airstrikes since November 2024 ceasefire.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 55/100 🟡
Status: Moderate with LAF Disarmament Advancing. The governorate observes LAF’s first phase progress while processing 500+ airstrikes documented since ceasefire.

Tourism sector experiences cautious improvement from approaching one-year ceasefire anniversary and LAF advancement while 500+ strikes maintain elevated baseline concerns.

Local businesses express measured optimism from LAF’s disarmament plan progress while Friday’s Hamas warning demonstrates state asserting control.

Regional communities observe LAF’s first phase advancement with hope while 500+ strikes since ceasefire indicate systematic operations persisting.

Key Factor: Regional cautious optimism from LAF first phase advancement despite 500+ airstrikes documented since ceasefire.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 61/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with LAF Progress Amid Daily Violations. Tripoli and surrounding areas face measured improvement from LAF’s disarmament advancement while 500+ strikes continue pattern.

The region observes LAF’s three-month first phase progressing while 500+ airstrikes since November demonstrate systematic operations.

Port operations experience cautious stabilization from approaching ceasefire anniversary and LAF progress while near-daily violations underscore fragile environment.

Cross-border dynamics face complexity from LAF’s advancement while Friday’s Hamas warning and IDF’s 5 maintained positions indicate challenges persisting.

Key Factor: Regional measured improvement from LAF first phase while 500+ strikes since ceasefire maintain elevated status.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 58/100 🟡
Status: Moderate with LAF Weapons Monopoly Target. The Syrian border region faces cautious outlook from LAF’s disarmament plan advancing while processing near-daily violations pattern.

Local communities observe LAF’s December 2025 weapons monopoly target with measured optimism while 500+ strikes demonstrate operations continuing.

Border security operations monitor LAF’s first phase advancement while Friday’s Hamas warning demonstrates state control assertion.

Agricultural activities proceed with improved outlook from LAF’s progress while Saturday’s strikes maintain elevated baseline concerns.

Key Factor: Border area cautious improvement from LAF plan despite 500+ strikes since November 2024 ceasefire.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 73/100 🟠
Status: Elevated – Among 500+ Strikes Since Ceasefire. The valley faces elevated status as region remains among 500+ IDF airstrike zones targeting alleged Hezbollah infrastructure.

VALLEY AMONG 500+ STRIKE ZONES since November ceasefire with IDF stating targeting Hezbollah weapons depots and reconstruction efforts demonstrating concentrated operations.

US ENVOY STATES Hezbollah possesses “thousands of rockets and missiles” with strikes continuing as Lebanese leaders work to accelerate disarmament processes.

Emergency services operate under ELEVATED THREAT coordinating response to near-daily violations, Saturday’s strikes while processing LAF’s first phase advancement.

Civilian populations face ELEVATED VULNERABILITY from being among 500+ strike zones despite LAF’s disarmament plan first phase progressing toward December target.

The combination of 500+ strikes including Beqaa, Saturday’s operations, LAF first phase advancement, and approaching ceasefire anniversary creates elevated environment.

Key Factor: Elevated status from being among 500+ strike zones since ceasefire despite LAF’s three-month first phase advancement.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 72/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Regional Strike Pattern. The region faces elevated tensions from being among 500+ strike zones since November ceasefire targeting alleged Hezbollah infrastructure.

The region observes its territory among 500+ total strike zones demonstrating operations continue despite LAF’s disarmament advancement.

Infrastructure development faces complex environment from LAF’s progress while 500+ strikes and near-daily operations demonstrate reconstruction targeting.

Cultural sites experience tension from regional targeting while LAF’s first phase advancement and approaching ceasefire anniversary offer stabilization path.

Traditional community structures observe LAF’s plan progress while 500+ strikes demonstrate continued operations.

Key Factor: Elevated tension from being among 500+ strike zones despite LAF’s first phase disarmament advancement.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 57/100 🟡
Status: Moderate with LAF Disarmament Success. The coastal governorate processes LAF’s first phase advancement while managing near-daily violations pattern.

Tourism activities face improved outlook from approaching one-year ceasefire anniversary and LAF’s three-month first phase progress while 500+ strikes maintain baseline concerns.

Local businesses express measured optimism from LAF’s disarmament plan advancement while Friday’s Hamas warning demonstrates state authority assertion.

The region experiences cautious stabilization from LAF’s progress and approaching ceasefire anniversary while 500+ strikes show systematic operations continuing.

Key Factor: Local cautious improvement from LAF first phase advancement despite 500+ strikes since November ceasefire.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 82/100 🔴
STATUS: CRITICAL – SATURDAY’S STRIKES & IDF 5 POSITIONS MAINTAINED. The south faces CRITICAL status from Saturday’s Kounine strike killing Hezbollah member and Kfar Roummane drone strike, plus IDF maintaining 5 positions despite ceasefire withdrawal requirement.

SATURDAY’S KOUNINE STRIKE killed “Hezbollah maintenance officer” demonstrating near-daily operations targeting operatives continuing throughout ceasefire period.

SATURDAY’S KFAR ROUMMANE DRONE STRIKE against car near Nabatieh demonstrates vehicle targeting pattern persisting despite approaching one-year ceasefire anniversary.

Emergency services operate under CRITICAL THREAT coordinating response to Saturday’s strikes, 500+ total airstrikes since ceasefire, IDF 5 positions while processing LAF’s first phase advancement.

Civilian populations face CRITICAL VULNERABILITY from Saturday’s operations, concentrated 500+ strikes (particularly southern Lebanon), and IDF maintaining 5 positions despite withdrawal requirement.

IDF MAINTAINS 5 POSITIONS with Netanyahu stating withdrawal “conditional on Lebanese army deploying and fully and effectively enforcing agreement” while Hezbollah withdraws beyond Litani.

The combination of Saturday’s Kounine and Kfar Roummane strikes, 500+ airstrikes since ceasefire concentrated south, IDF’s 5 maintained positions, and LAF advancement creates CRITICAL environment.

Key Factor: CRITICAL status from Saturday’s strikes and IDF 5 positions maintained within 500+ airstrikes pattern despite approaching ceasefire anniversary.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 79/100 🟠
Status: Elevated – Saturday’s Kfar Roummane Strike Near District. The governorate faces elevated security status from Saturday’s drone strike on car in Kfar Roummane near Nabatieh within district proximity.

Saturday’s Kfar Roummane drone strike occurred near Nabatieh demonstrating district remains among active targeting zones within 500+ total strikes.

Community services face elevated pressure from Saturday’s strike, 500+ airstrikes pattern, and near-daily operations while processing LAF’s disarmament advancement.

Medical facilities coordinate emergency response while managing transition environment from LAF’s three-month first phase targeting December weapons monopoly.

Local communities experience elevated vulnerability from Saturday’s Kfar Roummane strike and being among 500+ strike zones since ceasefire.

Key Factor: Elevated vulnerability from Saturday’s Kfar Roummane strike near district within 500+ airstrikes systematic pattern.

🎯 CURRENT SECURITY ASSESSMENT – APPROACHING ONE-YEAR CEASEFIRE ANNIVERSARY

🔴 CRITICAL IMMEDIATE DEVELOPMENTS:

Friday November 1:

1. LEBANON WARNS HAMAS – Higher Defence Council: Must not be launchpad for instability
2. “UTMOST MEASURES” STATEMENT – Definitive end to any violations of sovereignty
3. US PRESSURE CONTEXT – Growing demands to disarm groups outside state control
4. STATE AUTHORITY ASSERTION – Following 14-month Israel-Hezbollah war
5. PALESTINIAN CAMPS FOCUS – Limited LAF authority being addressed

Saturday November 2:

1. KOUNINE STRIKE – Hezbollah maintenance officer killed in southern Lebanon
2. KFAR ROUMMANE DRONE STRIKE – Car targeted near Nabatieh
3. NEAR-DAILY OPERATIONS – Continuing systematic strike pattern
4. HEZBOLLAH TARGETING – Operatives and infrastructure despite ceasefire
5. VEHICLE STRIKES – Car targeting pattern persisting

Ceasefire Status (Since November 26, 2024):

1. 500+ ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES – Documented by LAF on alleged Hezbollah targets
2. ALMOST DAILY VIOLATIONS – LAF recording systematic breaches
3. IDF 5 POSITIONS MAINTAINED – Despite withdrawal requirement
4. US ENVOY: “THOUSANDS OF ROCKETS” – Hezbollah still possesses significant arsenal
5. APPROACHING ANNIVERSARY – November 26-27 marks one year

LAF Disarmament Progress:

1. FIRST PHASE ADVANCING – Three-month timeline targeting completion
2. DECEMBER 2025 WEAPONS MONOPOLY – LAF goal for state control
3. FIVE-STAGE PLAN – Cabinet-endorsed comprehensive process
4. US $14.2M SUPPORT – For dismantling caches and infrastructure
5. HEZBOLLAH RESISTANCE – Group states won’t disarm until strikes/positions addressed

🔴 COMPLEX TRANSITION FACTORS:

Unprecedented Environment:

1. Approaching Ceasefire Anniversary – November 26-27 one-year mark
2. LAF’s First Phase Progress – Three-month period advancing
3. 500+ Airstrikes Documented – Since November 2024 ceasefire
4. Friday’s Hamas Warning – State asserting control and sovereignty
5. Saturday’s Strikes – Near-daily operations continuing

⚠️ COMPLEX TRANSITION ASSESSMENT:

• Approaching Anniversary – One year since November 26, 2024 ceasefire
• LAF First Phase – Three-month disarmament period progressing
• 500+ Airstrikes – Documented violations since ceasefire
• Friday’s Hamas Warning – State sovereignty assertion
• IDF 5 Positions – Maintained despite withdrawal requirement

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE – ONE-YEAR CEASEFIRE PERIOD

🏠 RESIDENT SECURITY RECOMMENDATIONS:

ELEVATED TRANSITION – APPROACHING CEASEFIRE ANNIVERSARY: Lebanon experiences elevated transition with approaching November 26-27 one-year ceasefire anniversary while LAF’s three-month first phase advances toward December 2025 weapons monopoly, Friday’s Hamas warning demonstrates state authority, and 500+ airstrikes since ceasefire show systematic violations continuing.

IMMEDIATE SECURITY ACTIONS:

• SOUTHERN LEBANON CAUTION – Saturday’s Kounine and Kfar Roummane strikes zone
• 500+ STRIKES AWARENESS – Near-daily operations particularly southern Lebanon
• IDF 5 POSITIONS VIGILANCE – Maintained despite ceasefire withdrawal requirement
• LAF PROGRESS RECOGNITION – First phase advancement toward December target
• STATE AUTHORITY SUPPORT – Friday’s Hamas warning demonstrates sovereignty assertion

INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSITIONAL VULNERABILITY: LAF’s first phase advancement demonstrates progress toward December weapons monopoly while 500+ strikes since ceasefire show systematic operations continuing.

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATION RECOMMENDATIONS:

TRANSITION PROTOCOLS:

• SOUTHERN OPERATIONS CAUTION – Saturday’s strikes and 500+ pattern area
• LAF COORDINATION – First phase disarmament process support
• DECEMBER TIMELINE AWARENESS – Three-month first phase completion target
• STATE AUTHORITY ALIGNMENT – Friday’s Hamas warning compliance
• CEASEFIRE ANNIVERSARY MONITORING – November 26-27 observance period

🚗 TRAVEL SECURITY STATUS:

ELEVATED CAUTION – 500+ STRIKES BUT LAF PROGRESSING: LAF’s first phase advancement demonstrates progress while 500+ airstrikes since ceasefire and Saturday’s strikes require ELEVATED CAUTION.

ELEVATED DANGER ZONES:

• SOUTHERN LEBANON – Saturday’s Kounine and Kfar Roummane strikes
• KFAR ROUMMANE (NABATIEH) – Saturday’s drone strike on car
• IDF 5 POSITIONS AREAS – Maintained despite ceasefire withdrawal
• BEQAA VALLEY – Among 500+ strike zones since ceasefire
• ALL VEHICLE TRAVEL – Saturday’s car targeting pattern continuing

🔮 24-HOUR TRANSITION FORECAST

Predicted Index Reading: 74/100
Forecast Trend: ⬇️ CAUTIOUS STABILIZATION – LAF FIRST PHASE ADVANCING

Transition Developments Probability:

1. Continued Near-Daily Strikes (80% probability) – 500+ pattern persisting
2. LAF First Phase Advancement (85% probability) – Three-month timeline progressing
3. Additional Saturday Pattern Operations (70% probability) – Vehicle/operative targeting
4. State Authority Assertions (75% probability) – Friday’s Hamas warning pattern
5. Ceasefire Anniversary Observance (90% probability) – November 26-27 approaching

Critical Monitoring Factors: LAF first phase completion, daily strike incidents, December weapons monopoly progress, ceasefire anniversary developments, Hezbollah response to disarmament.

Stabilization Factors: LAF first phase successful completion, strikes cessation approaching anniversary, IDF withdrawal from 5 positions, December weapons monopoly achievement, permanent ceasefire implementation.

📊 ONE-YEAR CEASEFIRE ANNIVERSARY ANALYSIS

Today’s Security Level: Elevated – Approaching Anniversary with LAF Progress
Change from Previous Assessment: -14 points (Significant improvement from LAF advancement)
Crisis Trend: Cautious Stabilization with First Phase Progress
Assessment: Lebanon experiences elevated transition approaching November 26-27 marking one year since cessation-of-hostilities arrangement while LAF’s three-month first phase advances toward December 2025 weapons monopoly with cabinet endorsement and international support, Friday’s Higher Defence Council Hamas warning demonstrates state sovereignty assertion, and 500+ documented Israeli airstrikes since ceasefire show systematic violations continuing with Saturday’s Kounine and Kfar Roummane strikes demonstrating near-daily operations pattern.

Strategic One-Year Anniversary Analysis: Lebanon approaches November 26-27, 2025 marking one year since November 2024 cessation-of-hostilities arrangement between Israel and Lebanon, with ceasefire continuing to hold despite systematic violations as Lebanese Armed Forces advances comprehensive disarmament operations toward December 2025 weapons monopoly target.

Lebanese Higher Defence Council Friday issued warning to Hamas stating Lebanon must not be used as launchpad for instability or be dragged into unnecessary wars, adding “utmost measures and necessary procedures will be taken to put definitive end to any act that violates Lebanese sovereignty” as country faces growing US pressure to disarm groups outside state control following 14-month Israel-Hezbollah war.

Lebanese Armed Forces three-month first phase of five-stage plan targeting December 2025 weapons monopoly continues advancing with cabinet endorsement and international support, with US approving $14.2 million Presidential Drawdown Authority package to build LAF capability to “dismantle weapons caches and military infrastructure of non-state groups” including Hezbollah.

Israeli Defense Forces confirmed carrying out over 500 airstrikes since November 2024 ceasefire on what it alleges are Hezbollah targets, with LAF recording almost daily violations demonstrating systematic operations pattern, including Saturday’s Kounine strike killing “Hezbollah maintenance officer” and Kfar Roummane drone strike against car near Nabatieh.

US Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack stated Israel continuing strikes in southern Lebanon because Hezbollah still possesses “thousands of rockets and missiles threatening it” while urging Lebanese leaders to accelerate disarmament, calling them “dinosaurs” in reference to their efforts.

Israeli military maintains 5 positions in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire requiring withdrawal, with Prime Minister Netanyahu stating withdrawal “conditional on Lebanese army deploying in southern Lebanon and fully and effectively enforcing agreement” while Hezbollah withdraws beyond Litani River.

Hezbollah representatives stated several times group will not disarm, arguing Israeli strikes and occupied positions must be addressed first, with five Shi’a ministers including two from Hezbollah walking out of September cabinet meeting in protest over disarmament plan endorsement.

The convergence of approaching November 26-27 one-year ceasefire anniversary, LAF’s three-month first phase advancement, Friday’s Hamas warning demonstrating state sovereignty assertion, 500+ documented airstrikes since ceasefire, Saturday’s Kounine and Kfar Roummane strikes, US envoy’s “thousands of rockets” statement, and IDF’s 5 maintained positions creates elevated transitional environment with significant LAF progress alongside systematic violations as Lebanon works toward December 2025 weapons monopoly requiring careful international coordination and sustained Lebanese government commitment.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: ONE-YEAR ANNIVERSARY MAXIMUM PROTOCOLS

🟠 ELEVATED TRANSITION ALERT – APPROACHING CEASEFIRE ANNIVERSARY & LAF PROGRESS

During Lebanon’s elevated transition approaching one-year ceasefire anniversary, LAF first phase advancement, and Friday’s Hamas warning, CIS Security maintains maximum protocols.

TRANSITION PERIOD SERVICES:

Ceasefire Anniversary Coordination:

• November 26-27 Observance – One-year anniversary monitoring
• 500+ Strikes Documentation – Systematic violations tracking
• Saturday’s Operations Response – Kounine and Kfar Roummane strikes
• IDF 5 Positions Monitoring – Maintained despite withdrawal requirement

LAF Disarmament Support:

• First Phase Advancement – Three-month timeline coordination
• December Weapons Monopoly – Target achievement support
• US $14.2M Package – International support coordination
• State Authority Assistance – Friday’s Hamas warning compliance

🟠 TRANSITION CRISIS CONTACT – ELEVATED ALERT

EMERGENCY COMMAND CENTER: +961-3-539900
Elevated protocols for approaching anniversary and LAF progress

ANNIVERSARY COORDINATION: November 26-27 observance security
LAF FIRST PHASE TRACKING: Three-month advancement monitoring
SATURDAY’S STRIKES RESPONSE: Kounine and Kfar Roummane coordination

During Lebanon’s transition approaching ceasefire anniversary and LAF advancement, CIS Security provides maximum protection.

⚠️ ONE-YEAR ANNIVERSARY NOTICE

ELEVATED TRANSITION ALERT: Lebanon experiences elevated transition approaching November 26-27, 2025 marking one year since cessation-of-hostilities arrangement while Lebanese Armed Forces three-month first phase advances toward December 2025 weapons monopoly with cabinet endorsement and US $14.2 million support, Friday’s Higher Defence Council Hamas warning demonstrates state sovereignty assertion, and 500+ documented Israeli airstrikes since ceasefire show systematic violations continuing with Saturday’s Kounine killing Hezbollah member and Kfar Roummane drone strike demonstrating near-daily operations pattern requiring elevated security protocols with LAF significant progress.

Update Frequency: Real-time monitoring during transition period. Alerts: Immediate updates for LAF progress and violations.

APPROACHING ANNIVERSARY: November 26-27 marks one year since November 2024 ceasefire arrangement.

LAF FIRST PHASE: Three-month period advancing toward December 2025 weapons monopoly target with international support.

Professional Transition Statement: CIS Security maintains maximum capabilities during elevated transition approaching one-year ceasefire anniversary with LAF’s three-month first phase advancement, Friday’s Hamas warning demonstrating state sovereignty, 500+ documented airstrikes, and Saturday’s Kounine and Kfar Roummane strikes. Our commitment to all personnel safety remains absolute during critical period with significant LAF progress toward December weapons monopoly alongside systematic violations requiring careful navigation.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Protection During Transition Period”

During Lebanon’s elevated transition approaching ceasefire anniversary, LAF first phase advancement, and Friday’s Hamas warning, trust CIS Security’s 35+ years expertise.

CIS Security Transition Period Services:

• Anniversary Observance Security – November 26-27 coordination
• LAF First Phase Support – Three-month advancement monitoring
• 500+ Strikes Tracking – Systematic violations documentation
• Saturday’s Operations Response – Kounine and Kfar Roummane coordination
• State Authority Alignment – Friday’s Hamas warning compliance

Transition Period Consultation: 📞 24/7 Emergency Command: +961-3-539900
💬 Elevated Transition WhatsApp: Real-time anniversary coordination
🌐 Emergency Website: www.cissecurity.net

During Lebanon’s elevated transition approaching one-year ceasefire anniversary, LAF first phase advancement, and systematic violations, CIS Security provides absolute maximum protection.