CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – Jan 10 2026

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🟡 ELEVATED
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 72/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⬇️ CAUTIOUS PROGRESS – FIRST PHASE DISARMAMENT COMPLETED AMID VIOLATIONS

🚨 MAJOR MILESTONE: LEBANON COMPLETES FIRST PHASE OF DISARMAMENT PLAN

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS – SATURDAY, JANUARY 10, 2026:

HISTORIC DISARMAMENT MILESTONE: Lebanon on Thursday announced that it has completed the first phase of its plan to disarm Hezbollah and other militant groups in the country’s south. The Lebanese Army said it now has operational control of Lebanese territory south of the Litani river, with the exception of five Israeli military positions inside Lebanon.

UN RECOGNITION OF PROGRESS: UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert wrote that the Lebanese army’s announcement “is undeniable progress. Hard work lies ahead. But today’s milestone shows commitment and reinforces the role of the mechanism established by the Nov 24 arrangement.”

CONTINUED ISRAELI SKEPTICISM: Netanyahu warns progress ‘far from sufficient’ despite Lebanese army completing first disarmament phase. Israel’s continued attacks aim to thwart all efforts made locally, regionally and internationally to stop the ongoing Israeli escalation, according to President Joseph Aoun.

ONGOING CEASEFIRE VIOLATIONS: Israel has consistently bombed Lebanon and conducted drone strikes despite a United States-brokered ceasefire in November 2024. UNIFIL has documented more than 10,000 ceasefire violations by the Israelis, including 7,500 airspace violations and 2,500 ground violations.

HEZBOLLAH’S CONDITIONAL COOPERATION: Hezbollah chief Sheikh Naim Qassem says group will continue ‘cooperation’ with Lebanese state and army, but maintains that “to demand exclusive arms control while Israel is committing aggression and the United States is imposing its will on Lebanon means you are not working in Lebanon’s interest.”

INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT: EU chief calls from Baabda for ‘full’ Hezbollah disarmament while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visits Lebanon. French President Emmanuel Macron welcomes “the encouraging announcements by the Lebanese authorities to restore the State’s monopoly” and says plan’s 2nd phase decisive.

ECONOMIC BREAKTHROUGH: Lebanon signs offshore gas deal with TotalEnergies, Eni and QatarEnergy, marking significant economic development alongside security progress.

CABINET DEPOSITOR RELIEF: Lebanon’s cabinet has passed a draft law aimed at repaying depositors up to $100,000 of their own money, addressing the banking crisis that has crippled the economy since 2019.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 68/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Major Governmental Progress. The capital experiences historic political achievement as Lebanon navigates multiple concurrent challenges amidst signs of tentative stability. After a two-year political vacuum, the country has a new president, Joseph Aoun, and a new government led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, which won a parliamentary confidence vote in February 2025.

The completion of the first phase of Hezbollah disarmament south of the Litani River represents the most significant assertion of state authority in decades. President Aoun’s statement that “Israel’s continued attacks aim to thwart all efforts made locally, regionally and internationally to stop the ongoing Israeli escalation” demonstrates governmental confidence despite external pressure.

The offshore gas deal with TotalEnergies, Eni, and QatarEnergy creates economic optimism for Lebanon’s energy future, while the cabinet’s approval of depositor repayment up to $100,000 provides hope for banking crisis resolution affecting millions of Lebanese.

Enhanced security around government buildings reflects ongoing vigilance during this critical transition period. The EU’s visit to Beirut with calls for ‘full’ Hezbollah disarmament demonstrates international support for governmental authority, while Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi’s visit shows competing regional interests.

Prime Minister Salam’s statement that “Resistance role ended in 2000, only state and army can protect Lebanon today” marks a clear governmental position on exclusive state authority over armed forces, creating political clarity despite Hezbollah’s conditional cooperation stance.

Key Factor: Historic disarmament milestone combined with economic breakthrough creating governmental momentum while managing competing international pressures and ongoing Israeli violations.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 64/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Economic Recovery Indicators. The governorate benefits significantly from national political progress and economic developments. Patriarch Rahi’s engagement with political leaders and the completion of first phase disarmament creates optimism for long-term stability.

Business operations improve with governmental stability and economic breakthroughs including the offshore gas deal and depositor repayment plan. Tourism sector shows gradual recovery as domestic and regional confidence increases with demonstrated governmental authority.

The region continues serving displaced populations while managing gradual return processes as southern areas stabilize under Lebanese Army control. Infrastructure improvements proceed under stable governmental framework with international support.

Lebanese Forces leader Geagea’s statement that “Hezbollah does not have the ability to confront anyone” reflects changed political dynamics following war losses and disarmament progress, creating new political discourse possibilities.

Key Factor: National stability progress enabling business confidence and tourism recovery while political discourse shifts toward state authority and exclusive armed forces control.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 66/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Commercial Optimism. Tripoli and surrounding areas benefit from national progress as the offshore gas deal and disarmament milestone create economic and security optimism for the port city’s commercial future.

Economic conditions improve with governmental stability and international recognition of disarmament progress. Port operations benefit from offshore energy development prospects and improved regional stability outlook.

Cross-border dynamics with Syria remain stable while regional political changes following Assad regime fall create new opportunities for Lebanese sovereignty and economic relationships.

Infrastructure projects proceed with international support as Lebanon demonstrates governmental capacity through disarmament implementation, attracting additional development funding and partnership interest.

Key Factor: Port city positioned to benefit from offshore energy development and improved regional stability following disarmament progress and governmental authority demonstration.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 67/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Border Security Enhancement. The Syrian border situation improves as Lebanese Army demonstrates capacity through southern disarmament success, creating confidence for broader security operations.

Cross-border security operations benefit from strengthened Lebanese Armed Forces authority and international recognition of governmental military capacity. The completion of first phase disarmament demonstrates LAF operational capabilities applicable to border security.

The region benefits from national political stability and economic progress, with infrastructure development proceeding under governmental framework supported by international partners.

Key Factor: LAF capacity demonstration through disarmament success creating confidence for enhanced border security operations while national stability enables development progress.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 70/100 🟡
Status: Elevated Awaiting Second Phase Implementation. The valley faces transition period as first phase disarmament south of Litani completes while second phase implementation extending to Beqaa approaches. Hezbollah’s conditional cooperation stance creates ongoing political tension.

Agricultural operations benefit from improved national stability and economic progress, with offshore gas development creating employment and economic diversification prospects.

The region’s strategic importance for second phase disarmament creates ongoing monitoring requirements, though Hezbollah’s stated cooperation with Lebanese state and army provides framework for peaceful implementation.

International development interest increases with demonstrated governmental capacity and economic breakthrough developments.

Key Factor: Transition period between first and second phase disarmament creating political tension while agricultural sector benefits from national stability and economic progress.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 73/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Implementation Concerns. This region faces highest tension regarding second phase disarmament extension beyond Litani River. Hezbollah’s position that arms control demands while “Israel is committing aggression” are not in Lebanon’s interest creates implementation challenges.

However, infrastructure improvements proceed under governmental authority as national stability creates development opportunities. The completion of first phase demonstrates governmental capacity while creating pressure for second phase implementation.

The region benefits from national economic progress including depositor repayment and offshore gas development creating employment prospects.

Key Factor: Second phase disarmament implementation concerns balanced by national economic progress and demonstrated governmental capacity through first phase completion.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 60/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Tourism Recovery. The coastal governorate experiences significant improvement from national stability progress and disarmament milestone. Tourism sector shows strong recovery indicators as regional and international confidence increases.

Business operations expand with governmental stability and economic breakthroughs. The offshore gas deal creates employment prospects in energy sector while depositor repayment provides consumer spending capacity.

Infrastructure improvements proceed normally under stable governmental framework with international support and partnership.

Key Factor: Tourism recovery acceleration from national stability while economic breakthroughs create business expansion and employment opportunities.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 74/100 🟡
Status: Elevated Despite Ongoing Violations. The south experiences historic transition as Lebanese Army establishes operational control of territory south of Litani River. However, ongoing Israeli violations and occupation of five points create continued security concerns.

UNIFIL’s documentation of 10,000+ ceasefire violations including 7,500 airspace violations and 2,500 ground violations demonstrates scale of ongoing challenges despite Lebanese compliance with disarmament obligations.

The Lebanese army’s operational control achievement represents major progress, with UN Special Coordinator recognizing this as “undeniable progress” while acknowledging “hard work lies ahead.”

Civilian populations benefit from Lebanese Army presence and state authority while facing continued threats from Israeli strikes and forced evacuation orders affecting four villages plus Bekaa areas.

Key Factor: Historic Lebanese Army control achievement balanced by ongoing Israeli violations creating security concerns despite disarmament compliance progress.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 72/100 🟡
Status: Elevated with Reconstruction Progress. The governorate benefits from Lebanese Army control and first phase disarmament completion enabling reconstruction and civilian return processes.

Infrastructure restoration accelerates under governmental framework with international support as disarmament progress demonstrates state capacity and attracts development funding.

The civilian population benefits from improved security under Lebanese Army presence while managing challenges from unexploded ordnance and ongoing Israeli violations in broader southern region.

Key Factor: Reconstruction acceleration under Lebanese Army control while managing unexploded ordnance clearance and broader regional Israeli violation concerns.

🎯 CURRENT SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF – DISARMAMENT MILESTONE

🔄 AREAS UNDER MAJOR POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT:

Priority Level 1 – Historic Progress:

1. South of Litani River – Lebanese Army operational control established in first phase disarmament
2. Government Authority Zones – State monopoly on force demonstrated through military operations
3. International Recognition Areas – UN and international community acknowledging Lebanese progress
4. Economic Development Zones – Offshore gas deal and depositor repayment creating optimism

Priority Level 2 – Transition Monitoring: 5. Second Phase Preparation Areas – Beqaa and broader Lebanon awaiting disarmament extension 6. Hezbollah Cooperation Zones – Conditional cooperation requiring ongoing diplomatic engagement 7. Israeli Violation Monitoring – 10,000+ violations documented requiring international pressure 8. Unexploded Ordnance Clearance – Ongoing operations south of Litani for civilian safety

✅ SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED SECURITY ZONES:

Major Progress Areas:

• Lebanese Army Control Territory – South of Litani under operational state authority
• Government Institution Areas – Presidential and Prime Ministerial authority strengthened
• International Cooperation Zones – EU, France, US engagement supporting Lebanese sovereignty
• Economic Development Areas – Offshore gas and banking recovery creating stability

⚠️ CONTINUED MONITORING REQUIRED:

Ongoing Challenge Areas:

• Five Israeli-occupied points inside Lebanon despite ceasefire commitments
• 10,000+ documented ceasefire violations requiring international accountability
• Second phase disarmament implementation requiring Hezbollah cooperation
• Regional tensions from Iranian and Israeli competing interests

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE – DISARMAMENT MILESTONE PERIOD

🏠 GUIDANCE FOR RESIDENTS:

HISTORIC PROGRESS ACHIEVED: Lebanon completes first phase of Hezbollah disarmament with Lebanese Army establishing operational control south of Litani River, representing the most significant state authority assertion in decades.

IMPROVED CONDITIONS:

• State Authority: Lebanese Army control replacing non-state armed presence
• UN Recognition: International community acknowledging “undeniable progress”
• Economic Progress: Offshore gas deal and depositor repayment creating optimism
• Political Stability: Presidential and Prime Ministerial authority strengthened
• International Support: EU, France, US engagement supporting Lebanese sovereignty

CONTINUED PRECAUTIONS:

• Monitor ongoing Israeli violations (10,000+ documented) affecting security
• Unexploded ordnance clearance operations require civilian awareness
• Second phase disarmament implementation creating political tensions
• Five Israeli-occupied points requiring diplomatic resolution

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATIONS GUIDANCE:

SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT:

• Government Stability: Demonstrated capacity through disarmament implementation
• Economic Breakthroughs: Offshore gas development creating sector opportunities
• Banking Progress: Depositor repayment addressing crisis affecting business operations
• International Confidence: Foreign investment interest increasing with stability demonstration
• Tourism Recovery: Regional and international visitor confidence returning

EXPANSION OPPORTUNITIES:

• Energy sector development from offshore gas deal
• Tourism infrastructure investment as stability improves
• Banking sector normalization enabling business financing
• International partnerships as Lebanon demonstrates governance capacity
• Infrastructure development with international support

🚗 TRAVEL ADVISORY UPDATE:

IMPROVED CONDITIONS: Lebanon demonstrates significant stability progress through first phase disarmament completion and governmental capacity, though ongoing violations require continued caution.

CURRENT STATUS:

• Government Control: Lebanese Army operational authority south of Litani
• International Recognition: UN acknowledging progress and mechanism success
• Economic Progress: Major developments in energy and banking sectors
• Regional Stability: Improved outlook despite Israeli violation concerns

RECOMMENDED APPROACH:

• Business Travel: Increasingly viable with proper coordination
• Tourism: Gradual recovery underway in stable areas
• International Engagement: Normal diplomatic and development activities proceeding
• Southern Areas: Lebanese Army control improving but Israeli violations requiring awareness

🔮 24-HOUR SECURITY FORECAST

Predicted Index Reading: 70/100
Forecast Trend: → STABLE WITH CONTINUED PROGRESS

Expected Positive Developments:

1. Second Phase Planning: Government preparing disarmament extension beyond Litani
2. International Support: Continued EU, US, France engagement supporting sovereignty
3. Economic Implementation: Offshore gas deal execution beginning
4. Depositor Repayment: Banking law implementation providing economic relief
5. Reconstruction Acceleration: Lebanese Army control enabling southern development

Monitoring Areas:

• Israeli violation patterns requiring international accountability
• Hezbollah cooperation framework for second phase implementation
• Regional diplomatic dynamics from Iranian and Israeli competing interests
• Unexploded ordnance clearance progress for civilian safety

Preparation Recommendations: Cautious optimism appropriate as Lebanon demonstrates governmental capacity while managing ongoing external challenges.

📊 DISARMAMENT MILESTONE SECURITY ANALYSIS

Today’s Historic Achievement: First Phase Hezbollah Disarmament Completed
Lebanese Army Control: Operational authority south of Litani River established
International Recognition: UN Special Coordinator acknowledging “undeniable progress”
Economic Breakthroughs: Offshore gas deal and depositor repayment creating optimism

Critical Analysis: Lebanon achieves historic milestone as the Lebanese Army announces completion of first phase disarmament with operational control of territory south of the Litani River. This represents the most significant assertion of state authority over armed groups in decades.

UN Special Coordinator Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert’s recognition that this “is undeniable progress” while acknowledging “hard work lies ahead” captures both achievement and ongoing challenges. The Lebanese military’s demonstrated capacity through this operation creates confidence for broader security sector reform.

President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government demonstrates effective leadership through this complex political and military operation. The Prime Minister’s statement that “Resistance role ended in 2000, only state and army can protect Lebanon today” provides clear governmental vision for exclusive state monopoly on force.

However, Israel’s position that progress is “far from sufficient” combined with over 10,000 documented ceasefire violations demonstrates ongoing external pressure and implementation challenges. The Lebanese army’s statement correctly identifies that “ongoing Israeli attacks in Lebanon, occupation of Lebanese sites, and repeated violations of the November 2024 ceasefire agreement” negatively affect “efforts to extend state authority and confine weapons to legitimate forces.”

Hezbollah’s conditional cooperation through Sheikh Naim Qassem’s statement about continuing ‘cooperation’ with Lebanese state and army while maintaining arms due to Israeli aggression creates framework for second phase negotiations requiring diplomatic engagement.

Economic Context: The offshore gas deal with TotalEnergies, Eni, and QatarEnergy combined with cabinet approval of depositor repayment up to $100,000 creates economic optimism supporting security sector reform. French President Macron’s welcome of Lebanese authorities’ monopoly restoration and identification of second phase as decisive demonstrates international support framework.

Historical Significance: This milestone follows more than a year of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah beginning October 8, 2023, which killed more than 4,000 people in Lebanon and caused an estimated $11 billion in destruction according to the World Bank. The November 2024 ceasefire creating framework for disarmament represents diplomatic achievement now demonstrating implementation progress.

Long-term Prospects: Lebanon’s demonstrated governmental capacity through first phase completion creates foundation for broader security sector reform and state authority consolidation. International recognition and support provide framework for continued progress while managing competing regional interests and ongoing violation challenges.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: DISARMAMENT MILESTONE SUPPORT SERVICES

🎯 HISTORIC ACHIEVEMENT – PROFESSIONAL SECURITY DURING STATE AUTHORITY CONSOLIDATION

CIS Security provides comprehensive protection during Lebanon’s historic disarmament milestone and state authority consolidation while supporting governmental capacity demonstration and economic breakthrough implementation.

DISARMAMENT MILESTONE SPECIALIZED SERVICES:

State Authority Transition Security:

• Lebanese Army Operational Support – Professional coordination with LAF in newly controlled territories
• Government Institution Protection – Enhanced security during historic governmental achievement
• International Delegation Security – Protection for EU, French, US officials supporting Lebanese sovereignty
• Economic Development Security – Professional services for offshore gas deal implementation

Second Phase Preparation Services:

• Diplomatic Security Coordination – Protection during second phase negotiations and implementation planning
• Hezbollah Cooperation Framework – Professional security enabling conditional cooperation discussions
• Regional Diplomatic Protection – Security for competing international interests requiring management
• Transition Period Security – Professional services during political and military authority consolidation

Economic Breakthrough Support:

• Offshore Energy Security – Protection for TotalEnergies, Eni, QatarEnergy operations
• Banking Sector Security – Professional services for depositor repayment implementation
• International Investment Protection – Security for foreign business engagement during stability demonstration
• Tourism Recovery Security – Professional services supporting sector revival

SPECIALIZED MILESTONE SERVICES:

Lebanese Army Coordination: With historic operational control achievement south of Litani:

• Professional security coordination supporting state authority consolidation
• Intelligence cooperation for second phase planning and implementation
• Training coordination maintaining international security standards
• Operational support for sustainable state monopoly on force

International Partnership Enhancement: Supporting Lebanon’s governmental capacity demonstration:

• EU, France, US delegation security during sovereignty support visits
• UN mechanism security for ceasefire monitoring and implementation
• International NGO protection during reconstruction and development
• Diplomatic mission security during competing regional interest management

Violation Response Management: Addressing 10,000+ documented Israeli violations:

• Real-time monitoring and documentation support
• Civilian protection during ongoing violation patterns
• Emergency response coordination for strike incidents
• International accountability mechanism support

📞 MILESTONE ACHIEVEMENT COORDINATION SERVICES

STATE AUTHORITY SUPPORT HOTLINE: +961-3-539900
Professional security supporting historic Lebanese Army control and governmental capacity demonstration

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROTECTION: Comprehensive security for offshore gas and banking sector implementation
INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIP SECURITY: Professional services for EU, France, US sovereignty support engagement
SECOND PHASE COORDINATION: Security services enabling disarmament extension negotiations and implementation

Specialized Achievement Centers:

• Lebanese Army Coordination Center: Professional support for operational control consolidation
• International Partnership Office: Security for diplomatic engagement supporting sovereignty
• Economic Development Division: Protection for offshore energy and banking breakthrough implementation
• Transition Management Center: Professional services during authority consolidation period

During Lebanon’s historic disarmament milestone with Lebanese Army operational control south of Litani and governmental capacity demonstration, CIS Security’s professional services support state authority consolidation, international partnership engagement, and economic breakthrough implementation under President Aoun and PM Salam’s leadership.

⚠️ MILESTONE ACHIEVEMENT OPERATIONAL NOTICE

HISTORIC PROGRESS ALERT: Lebanon completes first phase of Hezbollah disarmament with Lebanese Army establishing operational control south of Litani River, representing most significant state authority assertion in decades with UN recognition as “undeniable progress.”

Update Frequency: Regular monitoring during second phase preparation. Next Assessment: Sunday, January 11, 2026, 09:00 local time.

Economic Breakthrough Context: Offshore gas deal with TotalEnergies, Eni, QatarEnergy combined with depositor repayment approval creates economic optimism supporting security sector reform and state authority consolidation.

Professional Milestone Support: CIS Security provides comprehensive protection during historic achievement period, supporting Lebanese Army control consolidation, international partnership engagement, economic development implementation, and second phase disarmament preparation.

State Authority Commitment: Our services support Lebanon’s exclusive state monopoly on force through professional security coordination with Lebanese Armed Forces, governmental institution protection, and international partnership support during this historic authority consolidation period.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

During Lebanon’s historic disarmament milestone with Lebanese Army operational control south of Litani and governmental capacity demonstration, trust CIS Security’s 35+ years of proven expertise in state authority transition support and security sector reform coordination. As Lebanon’s most reviewed security company, we provide comprehensive milestone achievement security including Lebanese Army operational support, international delegation protection, economic development security, and second phase preparation services. Our trained, uniformed, and licensed security personnel deliver 24/7 protection supporting Lebanon’s exclusive state monopoly on force under President Aoun and PM Salam’s governmental leadership.

CIS Security Milestone Achievement Services:

• Lebanese Army Coordination – Professional support for operational control consolidation south of Litani
• State Authority Protection – Comprehensive security for governmental capacity demonstration and achievement
• International Partnership Security – Protection for EU, France, US delegation support visits
• Economic Development Protection – Professional services for offshore gas deal and depositor repayment implementation
• Second Phase Preparation – Security coordination for disarmament extension planning and negotiations
• Transition Management – Professional services during political and military authority consolidation

Why Choose CIS During Historic Milestone: ✓ 35+ Years State Authority Experience – Proven security supporting Lebanese sovereignty and governmental capacity
✓ Lebanese Army Partnership – Professional coordination with LAF operational control achievement
✓ International Recognition Support – Security services for UN, EU, France, US engagement
✓ Economic Development Enablement – Protection for offshore energy and banking breakthrough
✓ Second Phase Expertise – Professional planning for disarmament extension implementation
✓ Transition Period Management – Comprehensive security during authority consolidation

Historic Achievement Support: 📞 Milestone Coordination: +961-3-539900
💬 Lebanese Army Support: Professional security for operational control consolidation
🌐 State Authority Services: www.cissecurity.net – Comprehensive governmental capacity protection
📧 Economic Development: Professional security for offshore gas and banking implementation

Serving all Lebanese governorates during historic disarmament milestone with professional security for Lebanese Army control, governmental achievement, international partnership, and economic breakthrough. CIS Security – Your trusted partner supporting Lebanon’s exclusive state monopoly on force, UN-recognized progress, and sovereignty consolidation under President Aoun and PM Salam during this transformative period of state authority demonstration and international recognition.