CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – March 6 2026
CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – March 6 2026

Friday, March 6, 2026 | Ramadan Day 17 | US-Iran War Day 7
⚠️⚠️ WARTIME EDITION — EXTREME CONDITIONS ⚠️⚠️
INDEX LEVEL: 🔴🔴 EXTREME — ACTIVE WAR OVERALL INDEX: 99/100 — MAXIMUM SUSTAINED TREND: 🚨 CATASTROPHIC AND DEEPENING
HEADLINE: DEATH TOLL REACHES 217 — DAHIYEH ORDERED COMPLETELY EVACUATED (500,000 RESIDENTS) — TRIPOLI STRUCK FOR FIRST TIME — BEKAA VILLAGES ORDERED TO FLEE TODAY — 95,000+ IN SHELTERS — PM SALAM: “HUMANITARIAN DISASTER IS LOOMING” — UN WARNS DISPLACEMENT ORDERS MAY BE WAR CRIMES — SMOTRICH THREATENS TO LEVEL DAHIYEH LIKE KHAN YOUNIS — OIL WARNING: $150/BARREL — US-IRAN WAR DAY 7
⛔ MAXIMUM EMERGENCY NOTICE — MARCH 6, 2026: Lebanon is in the seventh consecutive day of active war. The security environment has materially worsened since our March 4 edition. No part of Lebanon can now be considered safe. Tripoli — previously untouched — was struck Thursday and Friday. The entirety of Beirut’s southern suburbs (~500,000 people) has been ordered evacuated. New Bekaa Valley evacuation orders issued today. The UN has formally warned displacement orders may constitute war crimes. Every person in Lebanon must have an active emergency plan.
📅 THE WAR IN CHRONOLOGY: MARCH 1–6, 2026
March 2 (Monday — War Begins in Lebanon): Hezbollah fires rockets and drones into Israel in response to Khamenei’s assassination. Israel retaliates massively. 31 killed, 149 wounded. Dahiyeh, south Lebanon, and Bekaa Valley struck. Lebanese cabinet bans Hezbollah military activities. Lebanese judiciary issues arrest warrants.
March 3 (Tuesday): 50+ killed total, 335 wounded. Al-Qard al-Hassan offices in Tyre destroyed. Israeli ground forces advance into south Lebanon. Lebanese Army withdraws from seven border positions. Israel orders 80+ villages evacuated; announces buffer zone creation.
March 4 (Wednesday): Comfort Hotel struck in Hazmieh (near Presidential Palace) without warning. Baalbek residential building destroyed (5-6 killed). Aramoun and Saadiyat in Mount Lebanon struck (6 killed). Khiam entered by Israeli ground forces. All residents south of Litani ordered to evacuate. Total: 74+ killed, 437+ wounded. 250,000+ displaced.
March 5 (Thursday): Israel orders complete evacuation of all of Dahiyeh — home to ~500,000 people. Mass exodus from Beirut southern suburbs. Beddawi refugee camp near Tripoli struck — first attack near Lebanon’s second city. Labaya (Bekaa) struck. Qaqaiyat al-Jisr struck. Haret Hreik buildings struck. Hezbollah strikes Ramat Airbase and Golan Heights. Smotrich threatens Dahiyeh will face Khan Younis-level destruction. 80,000+ displaced by evening.
March 6 (TODAY — Friday): Death toll confirmed at 217 killed, 798 wounded. 26 rounds of strikes on Dahiyeh. New Bekaa evacuation orders (Nabi Chit, Khader, Sarain al-Fawqa, Sarain al-Tahta). Tripoli struck again — Hamas commander killed by Israeli navy. Sidon struck: 5 killed, 7 wounded. Israeli warplanes over Tyre and Bint Jbeil. UN warns displacement orders may be war crimes. PM Salam: “Humanitarian disaster is looming.” 95,000+ in shelters.
🚨 BREAKING DEVELOPMENTS — FRIDAY MARCH 6, 2026
🔴 BREAKING #1 — DEATH TOLL: 217 KILLED, 798 WOUNDED IN LEBANON THIS WEEK
[Lebanese Ministry of Public Health — TODAY]
The Lebanese Ministry of Public Health confirmed the death toll from Israeli attacks since March 2 stands at at least 217 people killed and 798 wounded. Among the confirmed dead: a 5-year-old girl and a 7-year-old boy killed when Israeli forces struck their home in Mashghara in the Bekaa Valley. At least 95,000 people are registered in collective shelters nationwide. UN agencies and the IRC assess the actual displacement figure is significantly higher, with hundreds of thousands more sleeping in cars, on roadsides, and in informal settings.
🔴 BREAKING #2 — DAHIYEH: 26 ROUNDS OF STRIKES; AREA “ALMOST EMPTY”; 500,000 ORDERED OUT
[Al Jazeera, Reuters, Lebanese NNA — TODAY]
Israel has now conducted 26 separate rounds of strikes on Dahiyeh, Beirut’s southern suburbs, since March 2. Thursday’s IDF order covered the entirety of the Dahiyeh area — home to an estimated 400,000–500,000 people. The National News Agency reported the area is now “almost empty.”
Today a new wave of strikes targeted 10 high-rise buildings in southern Beirut, along with multiple command centres, per the IDF. Hezbollah’s Executive Council headquarters and a drone warehouse were claimed as targets. Israeli forces killed Hezbollah commander Zaid Ali Jumaa — identified as a senior figure in Hezbollah’s rocket and drone operations — in Beirut strikes.
Israeli far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich issued a public threat on Thursday: “You wanted to bring hell upon us? You brought hell upon yourselves.” He explicitly compared the fate planned for Dahiyeh to Khan Younis in Gaza — which Israel reduced to rubble. The threat has drawn international condemnation.
🔴 BREAKING #3 — TRIPOLI STRUCK — FIRST CONFIRMED ATTACK ON NORTH LEBANON
[Al Jazeera, Reuters, NHE Travel — TODAY AND THURSDAY]
In the single most significant geographic expansion of the conflict since our last edition: Tripoli has been struck. On Thursday, a drone struck Beddawi Palestinian refugee camp near Tripoli, killing at least two people including a Hamas official — a targeted assassination. On Friday (today), an Israeli navy strike killed a Hamas commander in Tripoli itself.
This is the first confirmed Israeli strike on Lebanon’s second-largest city since the current war began. Israeli operations now span from the southern border to Tripoli — approximately 200km of Lebanese territory. No part of Lebanon is now confirmed safe from Israeli targeting.
🔴 BREAKING #4 — NEW BEKAA VALLEY EVACUATION ORDERS — 4 VILLAGES TODAY
[Al Jazeera, Reuters — TODAY]
Israel today ordered residents of four additional Bekaa Valley villages to evacuate immediately: Nabi Chit, Khader, Sarain al-Fawqa, and Sarain al-Tahta. UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Lebanon Imran Riza told Reuters:
“What we saw in the last couple of days is… unprecedented in terms of the scale here in Lebanon of the warnings, the displacement orders, and the reaction, the panic also, that this has all created.”
Confirmed Bekaa strikes this week include: Mashghara (family home; two children killed), Labaya, Qaqaiyat al-Jisr, and Baalbek city (March 4 residential building: 5-6 killed).
🔴 BREAKING #5 — SIDON STRUCK: 5 KILLED, 7 WOUNDED IN SOUTH’S LARGEST CITY
[Lebanese Health Ministry, Al Jazeera — TODAY]
Israeli strikes on Sidon (Saida) killed at least 5 people and wounded 7 today. Israeli warplanes also reported over Tyre and Bint Jbeil. Sidon — which had been a relative point of safety and shelter hub — has now been directly bombed. Displacement shelters in Sidon are overwhelmed; today’s strikes on the city itself mean there is no safe urban centre remaining in south Lebanon.
🔴 BREAKING #6 — UN WARNS DISPLACEMENT ORDERS MAY VIOLATE INTERNATIONAL LAW
[UN Human Rights Office, CBS News — TODAY]
UN Human Rights Office spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani stated in Geneva:
“These warnings and displacement orders issued for the south of Lebanon reportedly affected more than 100 towns and villages — home to tens of thousands of people, and risk affecting many more… hundreds of thousands have now been affected by these Israeli displacement orders,” warning they risked amounting to “prohibited forced displacement” under international law.
UN High Commissioner Volker Türk called Lebanon “a key flashpoint” and demanded an immediate cessation of hostilities. The UN demanded swift investigations into all fatal Israeli strikes to determine whether they violate international humanitarian law.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned: “The world economy is at grave risk; the situation could spiral beyond anyone’s control.” He urged: “It is time to stop the fighting and get to serious diplomatic negotiations.”
🔴 BREAKING #7 — PM SALAM: “HUMANITARIAN DISASTER IS LOOMING”
[AFP, Al Jazeera, Reuters — TODAY]
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam stated: “A humanitarian disaster is looming.” He added: “Our country has been drawn into a devastating war that we did not seek and did not choose.” He called on the US and France to pressure Israel for a complete halt to attacks on all Lebanese territory and announced Lebanon’s “full readiness to resume negotiations with Israel, with civilian participation and under international auspices.”
Al Jazeera correspondent Zeina Khodr reported from Beirut: “There aren’t enough schools to shelter the hundreds of thousands of people who were forced to flee their homes… The humanitarian crisis is growing rapidly, as people seeking shelter can be seen on the side of the roads on almost every corner. Many do not have any means of transport.”
🔴 BREAKING #8 — HEZBOLLAH ATTACKS ISRAELI FORCES INSIDE LEBANON AND STRIKES HAIFA + GOLAN
[Hezbollah Telegram, Al Jazeera — TODAY]
Hezbollah claimed attacks on Israeli ground forces at Maroun al-Ras and Kfar Kila within Lebanese sovereign territory. It also struck Israel’s Yoav military camp in the occupied Golan Heights and the Haifa naval base — struck for the second time this week.
Hezbollah issued a public call for Israelis to evacuate border areas — framing the conflict as symmetrical. Israel refused: it “will not evacuate its border towns” and has dispatched more troops into Lebanon, calling it “a defensive measure to protect Israeli border citizens.”
Atlantic Council analyst Nicholas Blanford assessed: “It looks like Hezbollah aimed at open areas rather than proper targets to inflict damage. But it has given the Israelis an excuse, if they needed one, to come in and really start battering Hezbollah in the south, Bekaa and Dahiyeh more heavily.” He described Hezbollah’s decision to fire on March 1 as “a mistake” and “an act of strategic desperation.”
🔴 BREAKING #9 — US-IRAN WAR DAY 7: OPERATION EPIC FURY — IRAN REFUSES CEASEFIRE
[CBS News, WORLD Radio, Just Security, CFR — TODAY]
- Operation Epic Fury: US B-2 bombers have struck nearly 200 targets deep inside Iran, including deeply buried ballistic missile launchers with 2,000-pound penetrator bombs
- Iran’s navy decimated: US claims 30 Iranian warships destroyed, including one “the size of a WWII aircraft carrier”
- Air superiority: Israel claims “near-complete air superiority” over Iran; 80%+ of Iran’s air defenses destroyed
- 1,300+ killed in Iran including Khamenei, 160+ in a girls’ school strike
- Iran refuses ceasefire: FM Araghchi says Tehran is “not asking for a ceasefire” and is “prepared to defend against a US ground invasion”
- Iran retaliates: New salvo of missiles at Israel Friday; 7 Iranian drones at Bahrain residential areas; Kuwait sirens blaring; UK Embassy Bahrain targeted; US Embassy Kuwait suspended
- UK RAF Cyprus base struck by Iranian drone — first confirmed hit on NATO-territory asset
- Russia providing Iran intelligence on US military positions (per live updates)
- Trump: Demands Iran’s “unconditional surrender”; signals he wants to choose Iran’s next supreme leader; “We’re destroying more of Iran’s missiles every single hour”
- Congress: House rejects War Powers resolution 212-219; Senate also rejected it Thursday — Trump retains full war authority
🔴 BREAKING #10 — $150/BARREL OIL WARNING; GLOBAL ECONOMIC SHOCK
[CFR, Financial Times, Politico — TODAY]
Qatar’s energy minister warned the Financial Times that continued war could force Gulf energy exporters to shut down production within days, driving oil to $150/barrel. White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles has urgently ordered energy advisers to “find good news” on gasoline prices. A source told Politico: “Folks are scrambling for announcements and messaging.”
For Lebanon — where 80% of the population already lived in poverty and the lira has lost 98%+ of its value since 2023 — this energy price shock compounds an already catastrophic economic environment.
🔴 BREAKING #11 — UNRWA EMERGENCY REPORT: CLINICS CLOSED, SCHOOLS SHUT, WASTE PILING UP
[UNRWA Situation Report #1 — TODAY]
- 1,300 displaced persons registered in UNRWA camp shelters (Nahr el-Bared north of Tripoli; Beddawi — now a strike target)
- Beirut clinics (Shatila, Burj el-Barajneh, Polyclinic) suspended due to security
- Ghazieh and Adloun (Sidon area) clinics closed
- All UNRWA schools and vocational training centres closed nationally since March 2
- Solid waste collection disrupted in Tyre, Bekaa, Saida, and Beirut camps — public health emergency risk
- Fuel, equipment, and vehicle shortages disrupting humanitarian operations across all governorates
🔴 BREAKING #12 — ISRAEL MOBILISES 100,000+ RESERVISTS; FULL GROUND INVASION REMAINS “ON THE TABLE”
[AP, CBS News, IDF — confirmed this week]
Israel’s military confirmed 100,000+ reservists have been called up since the war began February 28. Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin stated Israel keeps “all options on the table, including a potential ground invasion of Lebanon.” Israeli tanks are maneuvering near the Israel-Lebanon border. The 500+ targets struck in Lebanon to date include senior Hezbollah commanders, rocket launchers, weapons storage, and command facilities across all of Lebanon’s regions.
🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE WARTIME ASSESSMENT — MARCH 6, 2026
⚠️ No governorate in Lebanon is currently safe. These assessments describe relative risk within an extreme wartime environment where all areas face danger.
🏙️ BEIRUT — 98/100 🔴🔴 | EXTREME — ACTIVE BOMBARDMENT
After 26 rounds of strikes, Dahiyeh is “almost empty” — but Israel continues striking it. Today’s wave targeted 10 high-rise buildings. Constant Israeli drone presence is audible across the capital. The Hazmieh-Baabda diplomatic quarter was struck Wednesday without warning; Iran’s threat against Israeli embassies maintains danger in that zone. Central and west Beirut face threat from strike spillover and drone proximity.
PM Salam’s government is functioning but overwhelmed. 27 Hezbollah members have been arrested in the ongoing enforcement of the military ban — operationally marginal relative to the scale of the conflict. Displacement shelters across Beirut — including Martyrs’ Square — are documented with families sleeping on the ground. Schools converted to shelters are beyond capacity. MSF is delivering water.
GUIDANCE: Dahiyeh — DO NOT ENTER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. Hazmieh-Baabda — AVOID. Anywhere in Beirut — shelter in place in most reinforced room; prepare emergency departure. Beirut airport is open — depart now if possible.
🏞️ MOUNT LEBANON — 93/100 🔴🔴 | EXTREME — DIRECTLY STRUCK; ABSORBING MASS DISPLACEMENT
Aramoun and Saadiyat were struck March 4 (6 killed, 8 wounded). No confirmed new strikes in Mount Lebanon today, but the widening of Israeli targeting across Lebanon — now including Tripoli — means no area is definitively safe. The governorate is absorbing an enormous wave of the newly displaced. Roads northward are severely congested. Fuel availability is becoming a concern as the global energy crisis deepens.
GUIDANCE: EXTREME CAUTION. All areas near Dahiyeh at continued risk. Emergency plan essential.
🌊 NORTH LEBANON & TRIPOLI — 92/100 🔴🔴 | CRITICAL UPGRADE — NOW ACTIVELY STRUCK
⬆️ UPGRADED FROM MARCH 4 ASSESSMENT.
Tripoli has been struck. Thursday: Beddawi refugee camp (Hamas official killed). Friday (today): Hamas commander killed by Israeli navy in Tripoli. This governorate is now a confirmed Israeli targeting zone.
North Lebanon is simultaneously the primary destination for Lebanon’s displaced population and is now under active strike threat. UNRWA opened a second shelter at Nahr el-Bared camp north of Tripoli — which now sits in an active target zone. Shelter capacity is overwhelmed. The Syrian border is closed for Lebanese departures.
GUIDANCE: CRITICAL — UPGRADED. Tripoli is now an Israeli target. Palestinian refugee camps (Beddawi, Nahr el-Bared) are active targets. All residents should identify emergency shelter in reinforced buildings. Monitor Israeli statements on northern Lebanon continuously. Consider departure from Lebanon via Beirut airport.
🌲 AKKAR — 87/100 🔴 | Critical — Proximity Risk; Border Closed
Akkar has not been directly struck but the northward expansion to Tripoli places it in Israel’s emerging operational corridor. UK RAF Cyprus was struck by Iranian drone — complicating the regional airspace environment near Akkar’s coastline. Syrian border remains closed for departures. Palestinian refugee camp operations disrupted by national humanitarian crisis.
GUIDANCE: HIGH CAUTION — UPGRADED. Syrian border closed. Monitor Israeli statements on north Lebanon operations. Have emergency plan ready.
🍇 BEQAA VALLEY — 98/100 🔴🔴 | EXTREME — ACTIVE EVACUATIONS TODAY
New evacuation orders today for Nabi Chit, Khader, Sarain al-Fawqa, and Sarain al-Tahta. Multiple confirmed strikes this week. A family home in Mashghara was struck — two children (5 and 7 years old) among those killed. Syria border closed; all four border crossings destroyed or non-functional. Humanitarian access severely degraded.
GUIDANCE: DO NOT TRAVEL. If in Bekaa — especially in the four villages ordered to evacuate today — LEAVE IMMEDIATELY. Move toward Zahle and north. Syria border is closed.
🕌 BAALBEK-HERMEL — 99/100 🔴🔴 | MAXIMUM DANGER — ONGOING BOMBARDMENT; INVASION THREAT
Baalbek-Hermel remains at maximum danger. The March 4 residential building strike (5-6 killed) is one of many operations here. As Hezbollah’s heartland and the primary Iran-Hezbollah supply corridor, it is Israel’s highest-priority interdiction zone. With 100,000+ reservists mobilised and a full ground invasion “on the table,” Baalbek-Hermel would be among the primary theatres of any such operation.
GUIDANCE: MAXIMUM DANGER. No safe zones. Evacuate immediately northward. Do not approach Hermel-Syria border under any circumstances.
🏛️ KESERWAN-JBEIL — 82/100 🔴 | Critical — Safest Zone; Use Airport Now
No direct strikes confirmed. The least-affected Lebanese governorate. The northward expansion to Tripoli signals Israel’s targeting is geography-agnostic, so this status could change. Beirut Rafic Hariri Airport (BEY) is operational — the primary departure point for those leaving Lebanon.
GUIDANCE: ELEVATED CAUTION. Best current staging zone for departure. Use Beirut airport now if departing Lebanon. Monitor closely.
🌴 SOUTH LEBANON — 100/100 🔴🔴 | DO NOT ENTER — ACTIVE GROUND WAR
Total evacuation order in force for all territory south of the Litani River. Israeli warplanes over Tyre and Bint Jbeil today. Sidon struck (5 killed, 7 wounded). Israeli ground forces operating in Maroun al-Ras and Kfar Kila. Buffer zone creation ongoing. Lebanese Army withdrawn from border positions. UNIFIL in bunkers. No protection available for civilians.
Over 100 towns and villages have received evacuation orders. The UN has warned these orders may constitute illegal forced displacement — but they remain in effect and Israeli operations continue.
IF YOU ARE IN SOUTH LEBANON: LEAVE NOW. Every hour of delay increases danger to your life.
⛪ NABATIEH — 100/100 🔴🔴 | DO NOT ENTER — ACTIVE WAR ZONE
Same total evacuation order as South Lebanon. Bint Jbeil District under Israeli air operations today. Ground operations ongoing in Maroun al-Ras (Bint Jbeil District) and Kfar Kila (Marjayoun District). Sidon — the main urban hub for displaced from Nabatieh — was struck today. A cascade of displacement is underway with no safe destination available in the entire south.
LEAVE IMMEDIATELY. There is no safe zone in Nabatieh Governorate.
📊 ACTIVE THREAT MATRIX — MARCH 6, 2026
| Location | Active Threat | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Dahiyeh / South Beirut | 26 rounds of strikes; evacuated | ⛔ DO NOT ENTER |
| All South Lebanon (below Litani) | Ground war; airstrikes | ⛔ DO NOT ENTER |
| All Nabatieh | Ground war; Sidon struck today | ⛔ DO NOT ENTER |
| Bekaa Valley (4 new villages) | Evacuation orders today | ⛔ EVACUATE NOW |
| Baalbek-Hermel | Sustained bombardment | ⛔ EVACUATE NOW |
| Tripoli | STRUCK TODAY — Hamas commander killed | ⛔ NEW ACTIVE TARGET |
| Beddawi Camp (Tripoli) | Struck Thursday | ⛔ ACTIVE TARGET |
| Sidon | Struck today — 5 killed | ⛔ DO NOT TRAVEL |
| Syria border crossings (all) | Closed; strike zones | ⛔ CLOSED |
| Hazmieh-Baabda | Struck Wednesday; Iranian embassy threat | ⚠️ AVOID |
| Central / West Beirut | Drone overhead; displacement chaos | ⚠️ SHELTER |
| Mount Lebanon | Struck Wednesday; displacement influx | ⚠️ EXTREME CAUTION |
| Akkar | Tripoli spillover risk; border closed | ⚠️ HIGH CAUTION |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | No direct strikes; monitor | ⚠️ ELEVATED |
| Beirut Airport (BEY) | OPEN — USE NOW | ✈️ DEPART |
📊 HUMANITARIAN CRISIS NUMBERS — MARCH 6, 2026
| Metric | Number | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Killed in Lebanon since March 2 | 217+ | Lebanese Health Ministry |
| Wounded in Lebanon since March 2 | 798+ | Lebanese Health Ministry |
| Registered in collective shelters | 95,000+ | IRC, UNRWA, Health Ministry |
| Villages with evacuation orders | 100+ | IDF, UN Humanitarian Coordinator |
| Israeli strike rounds on Dahiyeh | 26 | IDF |
| Total targets struck in Lebanon | 500+ | Israeli military |
| UNRWA clinics closed/suspended | 4 | UNRWA Sit Rep #1 |
| UNRWA schools closed | All nationally | Lebanese Ministry of Education |
| Lebanese in poverty pre-war | 80% (~4.1 million) | IRC |
| In need of humanitarian aid pre-war | 4.1 million (70%+) | IRC |
| Killed in Iran (war total) | 1,300+ | Iranian Red Crescent |
| Israeli reservists mobilised | 100,000+ | IDF |
| Regional flights cancelled | 3,000+ | Multiple sources |
📱 WARTIME EMERGENCY GUIDANCE — MARCH 6, 2026
🚨 PRIORITY ACTIONS — ACT NOW:
1. SOUTH LEBANON & NABATIEH: LEAVE IMMEDIATELY Total evacuation order. Active ground war. No protection. Move north now — do not wait.
2. BEKAA VALLEY (ESPECIALLY NABI CHIT, KHADER, SARAIN AL-FAWQA, SARAIN AL-TAHTA): EVACUATE New evacuation orders issued today. All Bekaa residents should move north toward Zahle and Beirut.
3. DAHIYEH AND SOUTH BEIRUT: DO NOT ENTER 26 rounds of strikes. Area almost empty. If you returned to collect belongings — leave again immediately.
4. BAALBEK-HERMEL: EVACUATE NOW Ongoing bombardment. Full ground invasion remains “on the table.” No safe zones.
5. TRIPOLI AND NORTH LEBANON: TAKE EMERGENCY PRECAUTIONS NOW First confirmed strikes Thursday-Friday. Beddawi camp and Tripoli itself are active Israeli targets. Identify reinforced shelter. Do not congregate near Palestinian camps.
6. DEPART LEBANON VIA BEIRUT AIRPORT: DO IT NOW BEY is operational. This window may close. Book immediately. Contact your embassy for emergency evacuation assistance.
7. US CITIZENS: US Embassy Beirut: BeirutACS@state.gov | US State Dept: +1-202-501-4444 | The US government is ready to assist Americans departing the Middle East.
8. ALL PERSONS IN LEBANON — SHELTER-IN-PLACE PROTOCOL:
- Keep mobile devices fully charged; have portable backup charger
- Identify most structurally reinforced room (interior, no external walls, away from windows)
- 72-hour supply: minimum 3 litres water/person/day, non-perishable food, essential medications
- Know nearest functioning hospital (call ahead — many are at or beyond capacity)
- Do NOT operate drones (all permits suspended nationwide since March 1)
- Monitor CIS Security alerts, Civil Defense announcements, and NNA continuously
⚖️ STRATEGIC SCENARIO ASSESSMENT — NEXT 72 HOURS
THREE VARIABLES DETERMINING LEBANON’S TRAJECTORY:
- Whether US-Iranian diplomatic channels can be reopened (Qatar and Oman are the viable facilitators; Iran currently refuses to ask for ceasefire)
- Physical status of the Strait of Hormuz — Iran has repeatedly threatened closure; this would trigger catastrophic global oil shock ($150/barrel) and potentially force US de-escalation
- Hezbollah’s willingness and physical capacity to sustain offensive operations given continued degradation from US-Israeli operations
Scenario A — Rapid De-escalation (LOW PROBABILITY): Ceasefire between US/Israel and Iran within weeks reduces Hezbollah’s rationale. Israeli forces withdraw from Lebanon. Qatar/Oman broker agreement. Requires Iran to reverse “not asking for ceasefire” stance.
Scenario B — Protracted Conflict (MODERATE-HIGH PROBABILITY): Iran pursues sustained asymmetric retaliation — Hormuz harassment, Hezbollah strikes, Houthi reactivation. Hezbollah continues limited but symbolically significant strikes. Israel maintains bombardment of Lebanon. Humanitarian crisis deepens for weeks to months.
Scenario C — Full Israeli Ground Invasion of Lebanon (ELEVATED PROBABILITY): Israel launches comprehensive ground operation in south Lebanon and potentially Bekaa, exceeding 2024 in scale. Would cause displacement exceeding one million people. Hezbollah’s degraded forces contest. International pressure for ceasefire intensifies.
🛡️ CIS SECURITY — WARTIME EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
ALL EMERGENCY PROTOCOLS ACTIVE | 24/7 WARTIME OPERATIONS
CIS Security teams are operational across all accessible Lebanese governorates. We coordinate with Lebanese Army, Civil Defense, UNIFIL, MSF, ICRC, IRC, and international diplomatic partners.
WARTIME SERVICES — AVAILABLE NOW:
🚗 SECURE EVACUATION: Route intelligence from South Lebanon, Nabatieh, Bekaa, Baalbek-Hermel, Dahiyeh, and now North Lebanon / Tripoli. Updated in real-time. Family reunification support.
🏠 DISPLACEMENT COORDINATION: Shelter identification in safer zones. Medical facility access. Emergency supply coordination.
📡 REAL-TIME INTELLIGENCE (UPDATED HOURLY): Active monitoring of Israeli strike patterns, displacement orders, and safe corridor status. IDF Arabic social media, Civil Defense alerts, NNA, and ground sources tracked simultaneously.
🏢 BUSINESS CONTINUITY: Staff evacuation, asset protection, emergency protocol activation, insurance documentation.
🌍 INTERNATIONAL COORDINATION: Liaison with all embassies, UN agencies, MSF, ICRC, IRC. Support for foreign nationals. Emergency document assistance.
⚕️ MEDICAL ACCESS: Functioning hospital and clinic identification in zones of relative safety. Medical evacuation support. Mental health and trauma coordination.
📞 WARTIME EMERGENCY — CALL NOW
🚨 24/7 EMERGENCY HOTLINE: +961-3-539900 Website: www.cissecurity.net For life-safety emergencies: Do not delay. Call immediately.
CIS Security — Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 35 years protecting Lebanon’s communities through 1982, 1989, 2006, 2008, 2024 — and now March 2026. “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional.”
⚠️ FINAL CRITICAL WARNING — MARCH 6, 2026
Lebanon’s war is in its seventh day. The death toll has nearly tripled since our last edition — from 74 to 217. Tripoli has been struck. The entirety of Dahiyeh has been ordered evacuated. New Bekaa evacuation orders are in effect as of today. The UN has formally warned that mass displacement orders may constitute war crimes under international law.
PM Salam said it plainly: “Our country has been drawn into a devastating war that we did not seek and did not choose.”
Iran is refusing to seek a ceasefire. Israel has 100,000+ reservists mobilised with a full ground invasion “on the table.” The US plans 1–2 more weeks of Iran strikes. Oil prices are heading toward $150/barrel. The UK’s RAF base in Cyprus has been struck. Russia is providing Iran with US military position intelligence.
For everyone in Lebanon:
- If you can leave, leave now while Beirut airport is open
- If you cannot leave, prepare for extended extreme danger — stock supplies, identify shelter
- Trust NO area of Lebanon as definitively safe — Tripoli was struck today
- Monitor verified, updated sources only — situation changes by the hour
- Call CIS Security if you need help: +961-3-539900
Stay safe. Seek shelter. Trust verified information only. We are here.
CIS Lebanon Security Index™ | Friday March 6, 2026 | Ramadan Day 17 | US-Iran War Day 7 | WARTIME EDITION
Sources (all published March 5-6, 2026 unless noted): Al Jazeera (death toll 217, Dahiyeh evacuation 26 rounds, Sidon strikes, Hezbollah Telegram, Bekaa orders, displacement reporting); Reuters (Bekaa orders, Imran Riza UN quote, Tripoli/Beddawi strikes, Dahiyeh evacuation); NPR (Smotrich quotes, Health Ministry figures, reservists); CBS News Live Updates Day 7 (UN rights office Shamdasani, $150/barrel, UK Bahrain, Khamenei bunker struck); WORLD Radio March 6 (Operation Epic Fury, CENTCOM briefing, Iran navy); Just Security Early Edition March 6 (10 high-rise buildings, Kuwait);
US Embassy Beirut Security Alert Update 1 March 6 2026; CFR Daily News Brief March 6 2026 (Guterres, Qatar energy warning, Trump-Kurds); NHE Travel Live Updates (Beddawi camp, Labaya, Qaqaiyat al-Jisr); UN News Live Day 7 (Guterres quotes); Democracy Now! / Havana Times March 6 (5-year-old/7-year-old, Mashghara, Smotrich Khan Younis); UNRWA Situation Report #1 Lebanon Emergency 2026;
IRC Lebanon Crisis explainer; Wikipedia — 2026 Hezbollah-Israel strikes; Wikipedia — 2024 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement; AP; AFP; Atlantic Council (Blanford analysis); Maxthon/88ask.com (conflict trajectory analysis); House of Commons Library Lebanon briefing; Security Council Report March 2026 Monthly Forecast.
All events cited are verified from named, credible international news sources. Index issued approximately 20:00 Lebanon time, Friday March 6, 2026.
🛡️ CIS Security Lebanon | +961-3-539900 | www.cissecurity.net | “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”
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