CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Nov 15 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL – NEAR-DAILY STRIKES CONTINUE & LAF DISARMAMENT ADVANCING
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 84/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⬇️ CAUTIOUS STABILIZATION – NO NEW INCIDENTS TODAY BUT SYSTEMATIC PATTERN PERSISTS

🚨 BREAKING: SATURDAY NOVEMBER 15 – RELATIVE CALM WHILE LAF DISARMAMENT PROGRESSES

IMMEDIATE CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS:

TODAY: NO NEW STRIKES REPORTED: Saturday November 15 marks relative calm with no new Israeli strikes reported as of afternoon, though near-daily pattern throughout November continues demonstrating systematic violations since ceasefire.

THIS WEEK: MULTIPLE STRIKES WITH CASUALTIES: Recent days saw November 6 wave of strikes on 5 southern towns wounding one, November 2-3 strikes killing 6 people (4 in Kfarsir Saturday November 2, 2 more Monday), demonstrating continuing violations pattern.

LAF DISARMAMENT CONTINUING: Lebanese Armed Forces continues implementing five-phase plan to disarm Hezbollah, with army clearing southern areas despite Israeli strikes disrupting operations – LAF racing toward year-end deadline.

HEZBOLLAH: “LEGITIMATE RIGHT TO DEFEND ITSELF”: Armed group November 6 issued statement asserting “legitimate right” to defend against Israel while refusing to enter negotiations, citing continuing Israeli attacks as justification.

NOVEMBER 2 KFARSIR STRIKE KILLS FOUR: Israeli air strike Saturday November 2 killed at least four people in Kfarsir town in Nabatieh district and wounded three, with health ministry confirming “guided missile” targeted car at 2:15pm – came day after President Aoun accused Israel of escalating.

PRESIDENT AOUN: “ISRAELI ESCALATION”: Lebanese President Friday November 1 accused Israel of escalating strikes in response to his offer to negotiate more lasting end to cross-border attacks, calling strikes violations.

111+ CIVILIANS KILLED SINCE CEASEFIRE: United Nations human rights office has verified at least 111 civilians killed by Israeli forces in Lebanon since November 27, 2024 ceasefire took effect.

ISRAEL MAINTAINS 5 POSITIONS IN LEBANON: Israeli forces continue occupying five hilltop positions in southern Lebanon in violation of ceasefire requiring full withdrawal south of Blue Line.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 76/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Systematic Violations Despite Today’s Calm. The capital coordinates environment with today’s relative calm while LAF advances five-phase disarmament plan amid continuing near-daily strike pattern.

Government facilities manage complex situation with LAF’s disarmament operations advancing while this week’s strikes (November 6 wave, November 2-3 casualties) demonstrate systematic violations continuing.

The combination of today’s calm, LAF disarmament advancement, this week’s strikes killing 6 people, President Aoun’s escalation accusation, and 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire creates critical environment.

Economic activities face uncertainty from systematic violations while LAF races toward year-end disarmament deadline with Israeli strikes disrupting operations.

Security coordination advances with LAF five-phase plan despite Hezbollah November 6 statement asserting defensive rights and refusing negotiations.

Key Factor: Capital experiencing today’s calm while managing systematic strike pattern (6 killed this week) and LAF disarmament amid political tensions.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 59/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Today’s Calm and Disarmament Progress. The governorate observes today’s relative calm while processing this week’s strikes and LAF’s advancement.

Tourism sector experiences cautious improvement from today’s calm and LAF’s progress while this week’s casualties (6 killed November 2-6) maintain elevated concerns.

Local businesses express measured optimism from today’s lack of strikes while 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire demonstrates systematic toll.

Regional communities observe today’s calm with hope while Hezbollah’s November 6 refusal to negotiate indicates ongoing tensions.

Key Factor: Regional cautious environment from today’s calm despite this week’s strikes killing 6 people.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 67/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Today’s Calm Amid Systematic Pattern. Tripoli and surrounding areas face measured improvement from today’s lack of strikes while near-daily November pattern continues.

The region observes today’s calm and LAF’s five-phase disarmament plan advancing while this week’s strikes demonstrate operations persisting.

Port operations experience cautious stabilization from today’s calm while 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire demonstrates fragile situation.

Cross-border dynamics face complexity from LAF’s advancement while Hezbollah’s November 6 defensive statement and Israel’s 5 maintained positions indicate challenges persisting.

Key Factor: Regional measured improvement from today’s calm while this week’s 6 deaths demonstrate continuing systematic pattern.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 64/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Today’s Calm and Regional Context. The Syrian border region faces cautious outlook from today’s lack of strikes while processing LAF disarmament operations.

Local communities observe today’s calm with measured optimism while this week’s strikes (November 6 wave, November 2-3 casualties) demonstrate operations continuing.

Border security operations monitor today’s calm and LAF’s progress while Hezbollah’s refusal to fully disarm indicates implementation challenges.

Agricultural activities proceed with improved outlook from today’s calm while this week’s 6 deaths maintain elevated concerns.

Key Factor: Border area cautious improvement from today’s calm despite this week’s systematic strikes killing 6.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 83/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Systematic Targeting Pattern Despite Today’s Calm. The valley faces maximum crisis from systematic operations since ceasefire with this week demonstrating pattern continuation.

NEAR-DAILY STRIKES throughout November include Beqaa Valley targets despite LAF’s disarmament operations demonstrating valley remains active zone.

Emergency services operate under MAXIMUM THREAT coordinating response to systematic violations while today’s calm offers brief respite.

Civilian populations face MAXIMUM VULNERABILITY from near-daily strikes and 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire despite today’s calm and LAF’s progress.

The combination of today’s calm, this week’s strikes, systematic targeting pattern, and 111+ civilian deaths creates critical environment.

Key Factor: Critical status from systematic Beqaa targeting within 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire despite today’s calm.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 82/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Regional Strike Pattern Despite Today’s Calm. The region faces maximum tensions from systematic operations with brief respite today.

The region observes today’s calm while this week’s strike pattern demonstrates continued vulnerability despite LAF’s disarmament operations.

Infrastructure development faces complex environment from LAF’s progress while this week’s strikes demonstrate reconstruction targeting continuing.

Cultural sites experience tension from systematic targeting pattern while today’s calm and LAF’s five-phase plan offer potential stabilization path.

Traditional community structures observe today’s calm while Hezbollah’s November 6 refusal to negotiate demonstrates implementation challenges.

Key Factor: Maximum tension from systematic targeting pattern despite today’s calm and LAF disarmament progress.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 61/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Today’s Calm. The coastal governorate experiences today’s relative calm while managing systematic violations pattern.

Tourism activities face improved outlook from today’s lack of strikes while this week’s 6 deaths maintain elevated concerns.

Local businesses express measured optimism from today’s calm while 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire demonstrates systematic toll.

The region experiences cautious environment from today’s calm and LAF’s disarmament progress while Hezbollah’s refusal to negotiate shows political challenges.

Key Factor: Local cautious improvement from today’s calm despite this week’s strikes killing 6 people.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 90/100 🔴
STATUS: ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM CRISIS – RELATIVE CALM TODAY BUT THIS WEEK’S 6 DEATHS. The south faces ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM DANGER despite today’s calm, with this week seeing November 6 wave strikes plus November 2-3 killing 6 people total.

TODAY’S RELATIVE CALM offers brief respite from near-daily strike pattern that killed 6 people this week alone (4 in Kfarsir November 2, 2 more November 3).

NOVEMBER 6 WAVE STRIKES targeted Tayba, Teir Debba, Aita al-Jabal, Zawtar al-Sharqiyah, and Kfar Dounin wounding one – IDF warning “just a preview” unless Hezbollah disarmed.

Emergency services operate under ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM THREAT coordinating response to this week’s casualties while today’s calm offers operational respite for LAF disarmament operations.

Civilian populations face ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM VULNERABILITY from near-daily strikes killing 6 this week and 111+ civilians since ceasefire despite today’s calm.

IDF MAINTAINS 5 POSITIONS conducting near-daily strikes with this week’s pattern including November 6 wave and November 2-3 casualties before today’s calm.

The combination of today’s relative calm, this week’s 6 deaths, November 6 wave targeting 5 towns, systematic violations, and 111+ civilian deaths creates ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM danger environment.

Key Factor: ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM CRISIS from this week’s 6 deaths and systematic violations despite today’s relative calm offering brief respite.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 89/100 🔴
Status: Critical – November 2 Kfarsir Strike Killed Four. The governorate faces maximum security crisis from Saturday November 2 strike killing 4 in Kfarsir within district territory.

November 2 “guided missile” strike on Kfarsir killed at least four people and wounded three demonstrating continued district vulnerability.

Community services face extreme pressure from this week’s casualties while today’s calm offers brief operational respite.

Medical facilities coordinate emergency response while managing environment from LAF’s five-phase disarmament plan advancing.

Local communities experience maximum vulnerability from November 2 Kfarsir strike and 111+ civilian deaths since ceasefire despite today’s relative calm.

Key Factor: Maximum vulnerability from November 2 Kfarsir strike killing 4 in district within systematic 111+ civilians killed pattern.

🎯 CURRENT SECURITY ASSESSMENT – TODAY’S CALM AMID SYSTEMATIC VIOLATIONS

🔴 CRITICAL IMMEDIATE DEVELOPMENTS:

Saturday November 15 (Today):

1. NO NEW STRIKES REPORTED – Relative calm as of afternoon
2. BRIEF RESPITE – From near-daily strike pattern
3. LAF OPERATIONS CONTINUING – Disarmament advancing during calm
4. SYSTEMATIC PATTERN PERSISTS – Despite today’s lack of incidents
5. MONITORING CONTINUES – Government tracking ceasefire violations

This Week’s Strikes:

1. NOVEMBER 6 WAVE – Strikes on 5 southern towns wounding one
2. NOVEMBER 2 KFARSIR – 4 killed, 3 wounded Saturday afternoon
3. NOVEMBER 3 STRIKES – 2 more killed (Doueir, Aita al-Shaab)
4. 6 TOTAL DEATHS THIS WEEK – Demonstrating systematic pattern
5. IDF: “JUST A PREVIEW” – Warning of escalation unless disarmament

LAF Disarmament Operations:

1. FIVE-PHASE PLAN ADVANCING – South to north gradual strategy
2. YEAR-END DEADLINE – LAF racing toward December 31 target
3. ISRAELI STRIKES DISRUPT – Operations complicated by attacks
4. PROGRESS DESPITE CHALLENGES – Army advancing clearing operations
5. HEZBOLLAH RESISTANCE – November 6 statement refusing negotiations

Political Developments:

1. AOUN ACCUSES ESCALATION – President November 1 criticized Israeli strikes
2. HEZBOLLAH DEFENSIVE STANCE – November 6 “legitimate right to defend” statement
3. REFUSES NEGOTIATIONS – Armed group won’t enter direct talks
4. US PRESSURE – Encouraging Lebanon-Israel negotiations
5. CABINET SUPPORTS LAF – Government backing disarmament plan

🔴 SYSTEMATIC VIOLATIONS FACTORS:

November Pattern:

1. Today’s Calm – No strikes reported Saturday November 15
2. This Week’s 6 Deaths – November 2-6 casualties from strikes
3. Near-Daily Pattern – Systematic operations throughout month
4. 111+ Civilians Since Ceasefire – UN-verified toll
5. IDF 5 Positions – Maintained despite withdrawal requirement

⚠️ COMPLEX TRANSITION ASSESSMENT:

• Today’s Relative Calm – No new strikes reported Saturday November 15
• This Week’s 6 Deaths – November 2-6 casualties demonstrating pattern
• 111+ Civilians Killed – UN-verified since November 2024 ceasefire
• LAF Disarmament Advancing – Five-phase plan toward year-end deadline
• Hezbollah Refuses Negotiations – November 6 defensive rights statement

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE – RELATIVE CALM TODAY

🏠 RESIDENT SECURITY RECOMMENDATIONS:

CAUTIOUS ENVIRONMENT – TODAY’S CALM BUT SYSTEMATIC PATTERN PERSISTS: Lebanon experiences relative calm Saturday November 15 with no new strikes reported as of afternoon, while this week saw 6 deaths (November 2-6), LAF disarmament plan advances, and 111+ civilians killed since November 2024 ceasefire demonstrate systematic violations continuing.

IMMEDIATE SECURITY ACTIONS:

• SOUTHERN LEBANON VIGILANCE – Despite today’s calm, pattern persists
• KFARSIR AREA AWARENESS – November 2 strike killed 4 in district
• NOVEMBER 6 ZONES CAUTION – Wave strikes targeted 5 towns
• NEAR-DAILY PATTERN MONITORING – Today’s calm doesn’t mean pattern ended
• LAF OPERATIONS ZONES – Disarmament continuing during calm period

INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSITIONAL VULNERABILITY: LAF’s disarmament operations advance during today’s calm while this week’s 6 deaths and 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire demonstrate systematic challenges.

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATION RECOMMENDATIONS:

RELATIVE CALM PROTOCOLS:

• SOUTHERN OPERATIONS CAUTION – Today’s calm doesn’t end pattern
• KFARSIR OPERATIONS REVIEW – November 2 strike zone (4 killed)
• NOVEMBER 6 ZONES MONITORING – Wave strikes areas
• LAF DISARMAMENT COORDINATION – Five-phase plan advancing
• SYSTEMATIC PATTERN AWARENESS – Near-daily strikes continuing

🚗 TRAVEL SECURITY STATUS:

MAXIMUM CAUTION – TODAY’S CALM DOESN’T END SYSTEMATIC PATTERN: Today’s lack of strikes offers brief respite while this week’s 6 deaths require MAXIMUM CAUTION.

ABSOLUTE DANGER ZONES:

• KFARSIR (NABATIEH) – November 2 strike killed 4
• SOUTHERN LEBANON – This week’s 6 deaths, November 6 wave targets
• TAYBA, TEIR DEBBA, AITA AL-JABAL – November 6 strike zones
• ZAWTAR, KFAR DOUNIN – November 6 targeted towns
• ALL SOUTHERN AREAS – 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire pattern

🔮 24-HOUR TRANSITION FORECAST

Predicted Index Reading: 82/100
Forecast Trend: ⬇️ CAUTIOUS STABILIZATION – TODAY’S CALM POTENTIALLY CONTINUING

Transition Developments Probability:

1. Continued Calm (60% probability) – Saturday/Sunday respite pattern
2. LAF Disarmament Advancement (85% probability) – Operations during calm
3. Return to Strikes (70% probability) – Near-daily pattern resuming Monday
4. Political Developments (65% probability) – Hezbollah-government tensions
5. Monitoring Mechanism Activity (70% probability) – Addressing this week’s violations

Critical Monitoring Factors: Duration of today’s calm, LAF disarmament pace, return to strike pattern timing, Hezbollah political stance, Israeli statements.

Stabilization Factors: Extended calm period, LAF disarmament success, political dialogue, strikes cessation, IDF withdrawal from 5 positions.

📊 TODAY’S RELATIVE CALM ANALYSIS

Today’s Security Level: Critical – Relative Calm But Systematic Pattern Persists
Change from Previous Assessment: -1 point (Slight improvement from today’s lack of incidents)
Crisis Trend: Brief Respite in Systematic Violations Pattern
Assessment: Lebanon experiences relative calm Saturday November 15 with no new Israeli strikes reported as of afternoon offering brief respite from near-daily pattern, while this week saw 6 people killed (4 in Kfarsir November 2, 2 more November 3), November 6 wave strikes on 5 southern towns wounding one, Lebanese Armed Forces five-phase disarmament plan advancing toward year-end deadline, Hezbollah November 6 statement refusing negotiations and asserting defensive rights, and 111+ civilians killed since November 27, 2024 ceasefire demonstrate systematic violations continuing despite today’s calm.

Strategic Relative Calm Analysis: Saturday November 15 marks relative calm in Lebanon with no new Israeli strikes reported as of afternoon, offering brief respite from near-daily attack pattern that has characterized November 2025, though systematic violations pattern demonstrates strikes likely to resume.

This week saw 6 people killed in Israeli strikes: Saturday November 2 attack in Kfarsir town in Nabatieh district killed at least 4 people and wounded 3 when “guided missile” targeted car at 2:15pm according to health ministry, while Monday November 3 strikes killed 2 more (one in Doueir, one in Aita al-Shaab).

November 6 Israeli jets conducted wave of strikes targeting Tayba, Teir Debba, Aita al-Jabal, Zawtar al-Sharqiyah, and Kfar Dounin in southern Lebanon after evacuation warnings, wounding one person, with IDF official warning attacks were “just a preview” unless Hezbollah fully disarmed by Lebanese military.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun Friday November 1 accused Israel of escalating strikes in response to his offer to negotiate more lasting end to cross-border attacks, stating “Almost a year since ceasefire came into effect, Israel has spared no effort to show its refusal of arrangement between two countries.”

Hezbollah November 6 issued statement asserting “legitimate right” to defend itself against Israel hours before cabinet disarmament meeting, urging Lebanese government not to enter negotiations with Israel and citing continuing Israeli attacks as justification for defensive stance.

Lebanese Armed Forces continues implementing five-phase plan to impose state monopoly on arms starting in south and gradually moving north and east, with army racing toward year-end deadline to complete operations despite Israeli strikes disrupting disarmament efforts.

United Nations human rights office has verified at least 111 civilians killed by Israeli forces in Lebanon since November 27, 2024 ceasefire took effect, while Lebanese health ministry reports more than 270 people total killed and around 850 wounded by Israeli military actions.

Israeli forces continue occupying five hilltop positions in southern Lebanon in violation of ceasefire requiring full IDF withdrawal south of Blue Line by February 18, 2025 deadline that passed without compliance.

The convergence of today’s relative calm offering brief respite, this week’s 6 deaths demonstrating systematic pattern continuation, November 6 wave strikes on 5 towns, President Aoun’s escalation accusation, Hezbollah’s defensive stance refusing negotiations, LAF disarmament advancing toward year-end deadline, and 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire creates critical environment with today’s calm likely temporary within broader systematic violations pattern requiring continued maximum vigilance.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: RELATIVE CALM MAXIMUM PROTOCOLS

🔴 CRITICAL TRANSITION ALERT – TODAY’S CALM BUT PATTERN PERSISTS

During Lebanon’s relative calm Saturday November 15 with this week’s 6 deaths and LAF disarmament advancing, CIS Security maintains maximum protocols.

RELATIVE CALM SERVICES:

Today’s Calm Response:

• No New Strikes Monitoring – Saturday afternoon calm tracking
• Pattern Analysis – Assessing if respite temporary
• LAF Operations Support – Disarmament during calm period
• Resumption Preparedness – Ready for pattern return
• Systematic Tracking – This week’s 6 deaths documentation

This Week’s Casualties Coordination:

• November 2 Kfarsir Strike – 4 killed, 3 wounded response
• November 3 Strikes – 2 additional deaths coordination
• November 6 Wave – 5 towns targeted, 1 wounded
• 111+ Civilians Tracking – Since ceasefire toll documentation
• LAF Advancement – Year-end deadline progress

🔴 RELATIVE CALM CONTACT – MAXIMUM ALERT

EMERGENCY COMMAND CENTER: +961-3-539900
Maximum protocols for today’s calm while systematic pattern persists

RELATIVE CALM MONITORING: Today’s lack of strikes tracking
THIS WEEK’S 6 DEATHS: November 2-6 casualties coordination
LAF DISARMAMENT SUPPORT: Five-phase plan advancement

During Lebanon’s relative calm Saturday November 15 with systematic pattern persisting, CIS Security provides maximum protection.

⚠️ RELATIVE CALM NOTICE

CRITICAL TRANSITION ALERT: Lebanon experiences relative calm Saturday November 15 with no new Israeli strikes reported as of afternoon offering brief respite from near-daily pattern, while this week saw 6 people killed (4 in Kfarsir November 2, 2 more November 3), November 6 wave strikes on 5 southern towns wounding one, Lebanese Armed Forces five-phase disarmament plan advancing toward year-end deadline, Hezbollah November 6 statement refusing negotiations asserting defensive rights, and 111+ civilians killed since November 27, 2024 ceasefire demonstrate systematic violations continuing despite today’s calm requiring maximum security protocols with vigilance as pattern likely to resume.

Update Frequency: Real-time monitoring during relative calm. Alerts: Immediate updates if strikes resume or LAF developments.

TODAY’S CALM: No new strikes reported Saturday afternoon November 15 offering brief respite.

THIS WEEK’S 6 DEATHS: November 2-6 casualties demonstrating systematic pattern continuation.

Professional Relative Calm Statement: CIS Security maintains maximum capabilities during Saturday November 15 relative calm with no new strikes reported offering brief respite, while this week’s 6 deaths (November 2-6), November 6 wave strikes on 5 towns, LAF disarmament advancing, Hezbollah refusing negotiations, and 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire demonstrate systematic violations pattern continuing. Our commitment to all personnel safety remains absolute during critical period with today’s calm likely temporary within broader near-daily strike pattern requiring continued maximum vigilance.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Protection During Relative Calm”

During Lebanon’s relative calm Saturday November 15 with systematic pattern persisting, trust CIS Security’s 35+ years expertise.

CIS Security Relative Calm Services:

• Today’s Calm Monitoring – No new strikes tracking and analysis
• This Week’s 6 Deaths – November 2-6 casualties coordination
• November 6 Wave – 5 towns strike zones security
• LAF Disarmament Support – Five-phase plan advancement
• 111+ Civilians Tracking – Since ceasefire toll documentation

Relative Calm Consultation: 📞 24/7 Emergency Command: +961-3-539900
💬 Maximum Vigilance WhatsApp: Real-time calm period coordination
🌐 Emergency Website: www.cissecurity.net

*During Lebanon’s relative calm Saturday November