CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Nov 16 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL – WEEKEND CALM CONTINUES & LAF REMOVES 10,000+ ROCKETS
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 83/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⬇️ CAUTIOUS STABILIZATION – NO STRIKES TODAY BUT SYSTEMATIC PATTERN PERSISTS

🚨 BREAKING: SUNDAY NOVEMBER 16 – CONTINUED CALM WHILE LAF DISARMAMENT PROGRESSES

IMMEDIATE CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS:

TODAY: SECOND DAY WITHOUT STRIKES REPORTED: Sunday November 16 marks second consecutive day of calm with no new Israeli strikes reported, offering weekend respite from near-daily November pattern – longest quiet period this month.

CENTCOM: LAF REMOVED 10,000 ROCKETS, 400 MISSILES: US Central Command October 16 statement confirmed Lebanese Armed Forces removed approximately 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, and over 205,000 unexploded ordnance fragments demonstrating major disarmament achievement.

NOVEMBER 10: THREE HEZBOLLAH OPERATIVES KILLED: Most recent documented strike Monday November 10 killed three Hezbollah operatives destroying “rocket launching site” in south, “several terror infrastructure sites” in Nabatieh, and “strategic weapons production site” in Bekaa.

FIVE-PHASE LAF DISARMAMENT PLAN ADVANCING: September 5 cabinet welcomed plan formulated by LAF laying out phased stages for state to achieve weapons monopoly across country – indirect reference to disarmament of non-state armed groups.

ISRAEL MAINTAINS 5 POSITIONS IN LEBANON: Israeli forces continue occupying five hilltop positions in southern Lebanon violating ceasefire requiring full withdrawal south of Blue Line by February 18, 2025 deadline that passed.

111+ CIVILIANS KILLED SINCE CEASEFIRE: United Nations human rights office verified at least 111 civilians killed by Israeli forces in Lebanon since November 27, 2024 ceasefire took effect – including 71 men, 21 women, 16 children.

UNIFIL MANDATE ENDING DECEMBER 2026: Security Council resolution 2790 adopted August 28 extends UNIFIL mandate final time until December 31, 2026, directing mission begin orderly drawdown marking end of peacekeeping since 1978.

MONITORING MECHANISM OPERATIONAL: Reformulated mechanism includes Lebanon, Israel, US (chair), France, UNIFIL representatives addressing violations and supporting enforcement of cessation of hostilities.

🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 75/100 🔴
Status: Critical with Weekend Calm and LAF Achievement. The capital coordinates environment with today’s second consecutive day of calm while LAF’s major achievement (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles removed) demonstrates progress.

Government facilities manage complex situation with weekend calm offering operational respite while CENTCOM October 16 statement confirming LAF’s massive weapons removal demonstrates disarmament success.

The combination of today’s continued calm, LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal, November 10 three operatives killed, five-phase plan advancing, and 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire creates critical improving environment.

Economic activities face cautious optimism from weekend calm and LAF’s documented success while November pattern demonstrates vulnerabilities persist.

Security coordination advances with LAF’s major achievement (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000+ ordnance) while monitoring mechanism addresses violations.

Key Factor: Capital experiencing weekend calm (second day) while managing LAF’s major achievement removing 10,000 rockets and 400 missiles.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 58/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Weekend Calm and Disarmament Success. The governorate observes today’s continued calm while processing LAF’s documented achievement removing massive weapons cache.

Tourism sector experiences improvement from weekend calm (Saturday-Sunday) and LAF’s major success while 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire demonstrates toll.

Local businesses express measured optimism from today’s calm and CENTCOM confirmation of 10,000 rockets removal while November pattern maintains elevated awareness.

Regional communities observe weekend calm with hope while LAF’s documented success (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000+ ordnance) demonstrates progress.

Key Factor: Regional cautious optimism from weekend calm and LAF’s major achievement removing 10,000 rockets.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 66/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Weekend Calm and LAF Success. Tripoli and surrounding areas face measured improvement from today’s continued calm while five-phase plan advances.

The region observes weekend calm (second day) and LAF’s documented 10,000 rockets removal as significant stabilizing achievements.

Port operations experience cautious optimism from weekend calm while 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire and November 10 strikes demonstrate fragile situation.

Cross-border dynamics face complexity from LAF’s progress (10,000 rockets removed) while Israel’s 5 maintained positions indicate challenges persisting.

Key Factor: Regional measured improvement from weekend calm and LAF’s documented 10,000 rockets removal achievement.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 63/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Weekend Calm and Regional Context. The Syrian border region faces cautious outlook from today’s continued calm while LAF disarmament demonstrates progress.

Local communities observe weekend calm with measured optimism while LAF’s CENTCOM-confirmed achievement (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles) shows success.

Border security operations monitor today’s calm and LAF’s major weapons removal while November 10 strikes maintain elevated awareness.

Agricultural activities proceed with improved outlook from weekend calm and LAF’s progress while systematic pattern awareness continues.

Key Factor: Border area cautious improvement from weekend calm and LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 82/100 🔴
Status: Critical – November 10 “Strategic Site” Strike Despite LAF Progress. The valley faces maximum crisis from November 10 “strategic weapons production and storage site” strike demonstrating continued targeting.

NOVEMBER 10 BEKAA STRIKE targeted what IDF called “strategic weapons production and storage site” showing valley remains active zone despite LAF’s documented removal of 10,000 rockets and 400 missiles.

Emergency services operate under MAXIMUM THREAT coordinating response to systematic targeting while weekend calm offers operational respite.

Civilian populations face MAXIMUM VULNERABILITY from November 10 strategic site strike and 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire despite today’s calm and LAF’s major success.

The combination of weekend calm (second day), November 10 Bekaa strike, LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal, and 111+ civilian deaths creates critical environment.

Key Factor: Critical status from November 10 “strategic weapons site” strike in Bekaa despite weekend calm and LAF’s documented achievement.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 81/100 🔴
Status: Critical with November 10 Regional Strike Despite Progress. The region faces maximum tensions from November 10 Bekaa strike while weekend calm offers respite.

The region observes today’s continued calm while November 10 “strategic weapons production and storage site” strike demonstrates vulnerability despite LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal.

Infrastructure development faces complex environment from LAF’s documented achievement while November 10 strike demonstrates reconstruction targeting.

Cultural sites experience tension from systematic pattern while weekend calm and LAF’s major success (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000+ ordnance) offer stabilization path.

Traditional community structures observe weekend calm and LAF’s progress while November 10 strike demonstrates continued threat.

Key Factor: Maximum tension from November 10 Bekaa strike despite weekend calm and LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal achievement.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 60/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Weekend Calm and LAF Success. The coastal governorate experiences today’s continued calm while managing LAF’s major disarmament achievement.

Tourism activities face improved outlook from weekend calm (second day) and CENTCOM-confirmed LAF success while 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire maintains awareness.

Local businesses express measured optimism from today’s calm and LAF’s documented 10,000 rockets removal while systematic pattern persists.

The region experiences cautious environment from weekend calm and LAF’s major achievement (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000+ ordnance removed).

Key Factor: Local cautious improvement from weekend calm and LAF’s CENTCOM-confirmed major disarmament achievement.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 89/100 🔴
STATUS: ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM CRISIS – WEEKEND CALM BUT NOVEMBER 10 PATTERN. The south faces ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM DANGER despite weekend calm, with November 10 three operatives killed plus rocket site destroyed demonstrating systematic pattern.

WEEKEND CALM (Saturday-Sunday) offers unprecedented two-day respite from near-daily November pattern that saw November 10 three operatives killed and November 6 wave strikes.

LAF’S MAJOR ACHIEVEMENT removing 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, and 205,000+ ordnance fragments from southern areas demonstrates extensive disarmament success per CENTCOM October 16 statement.

Emergency services operate under ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM THREAT coordinating response to systematic pattern while weekend calm offers operational respite and LAF success shows progress.

Civilian populations face ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM VULNERABILITY from November 10 three operatives killed, November 6 wave on 5 towns, and 111+ civilians since ceasefire despite weekend calm and LAF’s achievements.

IDF MAINTAINS 5 POSITIONS conducting strikes including November 10 operations in violation of ceasefire while LAF removes massive weapons cache from southern areas.

The combination of weekend calm (longest quiet period this month), November 10 strikes, LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal, and 111+ civilian deaths creates ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM environment with progress alongside systematic violations.

Key Factor: ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM CRISIS from systematic pattern despite weekend calm and LAF’s major achievement removing 10,000 rockets and 400 missiles.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 88/100 🔴
Status: Critical – November 10 “Infrastructure Sites” Strike. The governorate faces maximum security crisis from November 10 “several terror infrastructure sites” destroyed in Nabatieh district.

November 10 strikes targeted “several terror infrastructure sites” in Nabatieh demonstrating continued district vulnerability despite weekend calm.

Community services face extreme pressure from November 10 district strikes while weekend calm offers respite and LAF’s 10,000 rockets removal shows progress.

Medical facilities coordinate emergency response while managing environment from LAF’s major disarmament achievement (CENTCOM-confirmed).

Local communities experience maximum vulnerability from November 10 district strikes and 111+ civilian deaths since ceasefire despite weekend calm and LAF success.

Key Factor: Maximum vulnerability from November 10 “infrastructure sites” struck in district despite weekend calm and LAF’s achievement.

🎯 CURRENT SECURITY ASSESSMENT – WEEKEND CALM & LAF MAJOR ACHIEVEMENT

🔴 CRITICAL IMMEDIATE DEVELOPMENTS:

Sunday November 16 (Today):

1. SECOND DAY WITHOUT STRIKES – Weekend calm continuing Sunday
2. LONGEST QUIET PERIOD – Saturday-Sunday unprecedented for November
3. LAF OPERATIONS ADVANCING – Disarmament during calm period
4. MONITORING MECHANISM ACTIVE – Addressing November violations
5. SYSTEMATIC PATTERN PERSISTS – Despite weekend respite

CENTCOM Statement (October 16):

1. 10,000 ROCKETS REMOVED – LAF approximately removed from southern areas
2. 400 MISSILES DISMANTLED – Almost 400 missiles removed
3. 205,000+ ORDNANCE CLEARED – Unexploded ordnance fragments removed
4. MAJOR ACHIEVEMENT – US Central Command confirms LAF success
5. MECHANISM MEETING – US, France, Lebanon, Israel, UNIFIL coordination

Monday November 10 Strikes:

1. THREE HEZBOLLAH OPERATIVES KILLED – IDF strikes in southern Lebanon
2. ROCKET SITE DESTROYED – “Rocket launching site” struck in south
3. NABATIEH INFRASTRUCTURE HIT – “Several terror infrastructure sites” destroyed
4. BEKAA STRATEGIC SITE – “Weapons production and storage site” targeted
5. MOST RECENT DOCUMENTED STRIKE – Last confirmed operations

LAF Five-Phase Plan:

1. SEPTEMBER 5 CABINET APPROVAL – Phased stages for weapons monopoly
2. SOUTH TO NORTH STRATEGY – Gradual advancement approach
3. 10,000 ROCKETS SUCCESS – Major achievement documented
4. YEAR-END TARGET – Racing toward December 31 deadline
5. INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT – US assistance and monitoring

🔴 WEEKEND CALM FACTORS:

November 16 Developments:

1. Second Calm Day – Sunday following Saturday respite
2. LAF Success Documented – 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles removed
3. November 10 Last Strike – Six days since most recent operations
4. 111+ Civilians Since Ceasefire – UN-verified toll
5. IDF 5 Positions – Maintained despite withdrawal requirement

⚠️ COMPLEX TRANSITION ASSESSMENT:

• Weekend Calm Continuing – Second day without strikes Sunday November 16
• LAF Major Achievement – 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000+ ordnance removed
• 111+ Civilians Killed – UN-verified since November 2024 ceasefire
• November 10 Last Strike – Three operatives killed, infrastructure destroyed
• Five-Phase Plan Advancing – LAF toward year-end weapons monopoly deadline

📱 CURRENT SECURITY GUIDANCE – WEEKEND CALM PERIOD

🏠 RESIDENT SECURITY RECOMMENDATIONS:

CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM – WEEKEND CALM BUT PATTERN PERSISTS: Lebanon experiences unprecedented weekend calm Sunday November 16 marking second consecutive day without strikes (longest November quiet period), while LAF’s CENTCOM-confirmed achievement removing 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, and 205,000+ ordnance demonstrates major progress, though November 10 three operatives killed and 111+ civilians since ceasefire demonstrate systematic violations continuing.

IMMEDIATE SECURITY ACTIONS:

• SOUTHERN LEBANON VIGILANCE – Despite weekend calm, pattern persists
• NOVEMBER 10 ZONES AWARENESS – Last strike areas (south, Nabatieh, Bekaa)
• LAF OPERATIONS SUPPORT – Major achievement (10,000 rockets removed)
• WEEKEND CALM MONITORING – Assessing if respite extends
• SYSTEMATIC PATTERN AWARENESS – Near-daily strikes likely resuming

INFRASTRUCTURE TRANSITIONAL VULNERABILITY: LAF’s major achievement (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000+ ordnance removed) demonstrates progress while weekend calm offers respite from systematic pattern.

🏢 BUSINESS OPERATION RECOMMENDATIONS:

WEEKEND CALM PROTOCOLS:

• SOUTHERN OPERATIONS CAUTIOUS OPTIMIZATION – Weekend calm period
• NOVEMBER 10 ZONES MONITORING – Last strike areas awareness
• LAF DISARMAMENT COORDINATION – Major achievement support
• SYSTEMATIC PATTERN AWARENESS – Near-daily strikes expected resumption
• WEEKEND RESPITE UTILIZATION – Operations during calm period

🚗 TRAVEL SECURITY STATUS:

MAXIMUM CAUTION – WEEKEND CALM DOESN’T END SYSTEMATIC PATTERN: Weekend calm offers respite while November 10 strikes and 111+ civilians killed require MAXIMUM CAUTION.

ABSOLUTE DANGER ZONES:

• SOUTHERN LEBANON – November 10 three operatives killed, rocket site
• NABATIEH DISTRICT – November 10 “infrastructure sites” destroyed
• BEKAA VALLEY – November 10 “strategic weapons site” targeted
• ALL SOUTHERN AREAS – 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire pattern
• IDF 5 POSITIONS – Israeli-occupied Lebanese territory

🔮 24-HOUR TRANSITION FORECAST

Predicted Index Reading: 81/100
Forecast Trend: ⬇️ CAUTIOUS STABILIZATION – WEEKEND CALM POTENTIALLY EXTENDING

Transition Developments Probability:

1. Continued Calm Monday (65% probability) – Weekend respite extending
2. LAF Disarmament Advancement (85% probability) – Operations during calm
3. Return to Strikes Pattern (70% probability) – Near-daily resuming this week
4. Monitoring Mechanism Activity (75% probability) – November violations addressed
5. Political Developments (70% probability) – Five-phase plan advancement

Critical Monitoring Factors: Duration of weekend calm, LAF disarmament pace, strike pattern resumption timing, monitoring mechanism effectiveness, Israeli statements.

Stabilization Factors: Extended calm period, LAF year-end success, political consensus, strikes cessation, IDF withdrawal from 5 positions.

📊 WEEKEND CALM & LAF ACHIEVEMENT ANALYSIS

Today’s Security Level: Critical – Weekend Calm Continues with LAF Major Success
Change from Previous Assessment: -1 point (Improvement from second calm day)
Crisis Trend: Unprecedented Weekend Respite in Systematic Pattern
Assessment: Lebanon experiences unprecedented weekend calm Sunday November 16 marking second consecutive day without strikes (longest November quiet period) offering respite from near-daily pattern, while US Central Command October 16 statement confirms Lebanese Armed Forces removed approximately 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, and over 205,000 unexploded ordnance demonstrating major disarmament achievement, though November 10 three operatives killed destroying infrastructure sites and 111+ civilians verified killed since November 27, 2024 ceasefire demonstrate systematic violations continuing despite progress.

Strategic Weekend Calm Analysis: Sunday November 16 marks second consecutive day of calm in Lebanon with no new Israeli strikes reported, representing longest quiet period in November 2025 and offering unprecedented weekend respite from near-daily attack pattern that has characterized month.

US Central Command October 16 statement following meeting of cessation-of-hostilities monitoring mechanism confirmed Lebanese Armed Forces had removed approximately 10,000 rockets, almost 400 missiles, and over 205,000 unexploded ordnance fragments demonstrating major disarmament achievement toward state weapons monopoly.

Most recent documented strikes occurred Monday November 10 when Israeli military reported killing three Hezbollah operatives and destroying what it described as “rocket launching site” in southern Lebanon, “several terror infrastructure sites” in Nabatieh district, and “strategic weapons production and storage site” in Bekaa region.

September 5 Lebanese cabinet welcomed plan formulated by LAF that lays out phased stages for state to achieve monopoly of arms across country – indirect reference to process of disarmament of non-state armed groups in Lebanon – with army advancing south to north gradually.

United Nations human rights office verified at least 111 civilians killed by Israeli forces in Lebanon since November 27, 2024 ceasefire took effect, including 71 men, 21 women, and 16 children, demonstrating systematic civilian toll throughout year-long period.

Israeli forces continue occupying five hilltop positions in southern Lebanon in violation of ceasefire requiring full IDF withdrawal south of Blue Line by February 18, 2025 deadline that passed without compliance nine months ago.

Reformulated monitoring mechanism includes representatives of Lebanon, Israel, US (chair), France, and UNIFIL meeting to address threats, violations, and support enforcement of cessation of hostilities, with October 16 meeting confirming LAF’s major weapons removal achievement.

Security Council resolution 2790 adopted August 28, 2025 extends UNIFIL mandate final time until December 31, 2026, directing mission begin orderly drawdown and full withdrawal within one year marking end of peacekeeping presence since 1978 founding.

The convergence of weekend calm (second consecutive day representing longest November quiet period), LAF’s CENTCOM-confirmed major achievement (10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000+ ordnance removed), November 10 three operatives killed with infrastructure strikes, five-phase gradual disarmament plan advancing toward year-end deadline, 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire, and Israel’s 5 maintained positions creates critical environment with unprecedented respite alongside systematic pattern likely resuming requiring continued maximum vigilance despite progress and calm.

🛡️ CIS SECURITY: WEEKEND CALM MAXIMUM PROTOCOLS

🔴 CRITICAL TRANSITION ALERT – WEEKEND CALM & LAF MAJOR ACHIEVEMENT

During Lebanon’s unprecedented weekend calm and LAF’s CENTCOM-confirmed major achievement, CIS Security maintains maximum protocols.

WEEKEND CALM SERVICES:

Weekend Calm Response:

• Second Day Monitoring – Sunday calm tracking and assessment
• Pattern Analysis – Longest November quiet period evaluation
• LAF Operations Support – Disarmament during calm advancing
• Resumption Preparedness – Ready for pattern return monitoring
• Achievement Documentation – 10,000 rockets removal tracking

LAF Major Achievement Coordination:

• CENTCOM Statement – October 16 confirmation documentation
• 10,000 Rockets Removed – Major weapons cache removal
• 400 Missiles Dismantled – Significant disarmament success
• 205,000+ Ordnance Cleared – Unexploded fragments removal
• Five-Phase Plan – Year-end deadline advancement

🔴 WEEKEND CALM CONTACT – MAXIMUM ALERT

EMERGENCY COMMAND CENTER: +961-3-539900
Maximum protocols for weekend calm and LAF major achievement

WEEKEND CALM MONITORING: Second day tracking
LAF ACHIEVEMENT COORDINATION: 10,000 rockets removal documentation
NOVEMBER 10 LAST STRIKE: Six days since operations

During Lebanon’s weekend calm and LAF’s major achievement, CIS Security provides maximum protection.

⚠️ WEEKEND CALM NOTICE

CRITICAL TRANSITION ALERT: Lebanon experiences unprecedented weekend calm Sunday November 16 marking second consecutive day without Israeli strikes representing longest November quiet period offering respite from near-daily pattern, while US Central Command October 16 statement confirms Lebanese Armed Forces removed approximately 10,000 rockets, almost 400 missiles, and over 205,000 unexploded ordnance demonstrating major disarmament achievement toward state weapons monopoly, though November 10 three operatives killed with infrastructure sites destroyed and 111+ civilians verified killed since November 27, 2024 ceasefire demonstrate systematic violations continuing requiring maximum security protocols with vigilance as pattern likely resuming despite progress.

Update Frequency: Real-time monitoring during weekend calm. Alerts: Immediate updates if strikes resume or LAF developments.

WEEKEND CALM: Second consecutive day (Saturday-Sunday) longest November quiet period.

LAF MAJOR ACHIEVEMENT: CENTCOM-confirmed 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, 205,000+ ordnance removed.

Professional Weekend Statement: CIS Security maintains maximum capabilities during Sunday November 16 unprecedented weekend calm (second consecutive day) representing longest November quiet period, while LAF’s CENTCOM-confirmed major achievement removing 10,000 rockets, 400 missiles, and 205,000+ ordnance demonstrates significant disarmament progress, though November 10 strikes and 111+ civilians killed since ceasefire show systematic pattern continuing. Our commitment to all personnel safety remains absolute during critical period with weekend calm offering respite within broader near-daily strike pattern requiring continued maximum vigilance despite progress.

🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY SERVICES – CIS SECURITY LEBANON

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 – “Protection During Weekend Calm”

During Lebanon’s unprecedented weekend calm and LAF’s major achievement, trust CIS Security’s 35+ years expertise.

CIS Security Weekend Calm Services:

• Weekend Calm Monitoring – Second day tracking and analysis
• LAF Achievement Documentation – 10,000 rockets removal coordination
• November 10 Pattern – Last strike operations tracking
• Five-Phase Plan Support – Year-end deadline advancement
• 111+ Civilians Tracking – Since ceasefire toll documentation

Weekend Calm Consultation: 📞 24/7 Emergency Command: +961-3-539900
💬 Maximum Vigilance WhatsApp: Real-time weekend calm coordination
🌐 Emergency Website: www.cissecurity.net

During Lebanon’s unprecedented weekend calm and LAF’s major CENTCOM-confirmed achievement, CIS Security provides absolute maximum protection.