CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Sept 24 2025
🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Sept 24 2025
📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING
INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL – DIPLOMATIC OFFENSIVE AT UN AMID VIOLATIONS
TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 85/100
TREND ANALYSIS: ⬆️ HEIGHTENED TENSION FROM INTERNAL POLITICAL CRISIS
🌐 BREAKING: PRESIDENT AOUN ADDRESSES UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY – DEMANDS ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL
IMMEDIATE CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS:
September 24, 2025 – UN DIPLOMATIC OFFENSIVE INTENSIFIES: Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun delivered a powerful address to the UN General Assembly in New York, calling for the “immediate cessation of Israeli aggression” in Lebanon and demanding the “full withdrawal” of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory. Aoun told the Assembly that Lebanon faces a triple crisis due to instability from the war in Gaza, the Syrian refugee issue, and the reconstruction of the south.
DISARMAMENT TENSIONS ESCALATE: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government faces internal challenges as Hezbollah defies orders to cease unauthorized use of national landmarks, with the group insisting it will illuminate Beirut’s iconic Raouche Rock with images of slain leaders Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine on September 25, despite government prohibition. This confrontation symbolizes broader tensions over state authority and the disarmament deadline.
ARMY CHIEF HAYKAL’S IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES: Lebanese army chief raised the prospect of stepping down over the Hezbollah disarmament process, as sources reveal he “wants the government to pursue a comprehensive agreement and avoid putting the army in a direct confrontation with the group”. The army lacks sufficient resources and capabilities for forced disarmament by the December 31 deadline.
U.S. PRESSURE AMID ISRAELI “GREEN LIGHT”: The U.S. has given Israel a “green light” that allows it to wage military strikes on various regions of Lebanon to “terminate Hezbollah’s capabilities and block its attempt to rebuild its assets,” informed sources said. This contradicts diplomatic efforts for de-escalation and complicates Lebanon’s disarmament implementation.
BINT JBEIL MASSACRE INTERNATIONAL FALLOUT: Following the killing of five civilians including three U.S. citizen children in Bint Jbeil, President Aoun and officials met with a delegation led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with Aoun asking Rubio to ensure Israel sticks to the truce. The State Department disputes claims about U.S. citizenship status but international condemnation continues.
HEZBOLLAH’S FINANCIAL RESILIENCE CONFIRMED: Despite being weakened militarily, Hezbollah remains financially resilient a year after the Israel war, still managing to pay its fighters and fund social services with the U.S. confirming it’s still receiving $60 million monthly from Iran and illicit businesses.
COMPREHENSIVE DEFENSE STRATEGY ANNOUNCEMENT: President Aoun alluded to securing “the exclusive sovereignty of the Lebanese state,” which would be “enforced solely by its legal armed forces,” while committing to an independent financial audit and fair restructuring of the banking sector.
🌡️ COMPREHENSIVE GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT
BEIRUT 🏙️
Index Reading: 80/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Political Confrontation Zone. The capital faces unprecedented internal political tensions as Hezbollah challenges government authority through the planned Raouche Rock illumination event, with PM Salam issuing circulars to “all public administrations and institutions regarding commitment to enforcing laws governing the use of public land and touristic sites that carry unifying national symbolism”.
Security forces prepare for potential confrontation on September 25 as Hezbollah supporters plan to gather for the unauthorized memorial event. Multiple Beirut MPs express outrage, with concerns about civil peace and memories of the May 7, 2008 armed takeover still fresh.
The absence of President Aoun during UN meetings creates additional security coordination challenges while government ministers navigate the crisis without full leadership presence. International diplomatic missions increase security protocols amid rising tensions.
Economic activities continue under strain with ongoing electricity crisis and uncertainty about political stability affecting business confidence. The banking sector awaits promised restructuring while corruption investigations proceed slowly.
Key Factor: Managing internal political confrontation over state authority while President conducts crucial UN diplomacy.
MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️
Index Reading: 66/100 🟠
Status: Elevated with Spillover Concerns. The governorate maintains relative stability but experiences heightened anxiety from Beirut’s political tensions and ongoing southern violations. Tourism sector shows caution as international visitors monitor the Raouche Rock confrontation and its implications.
Local authorities coordinate with security forces to prevent any spillover from Beirut demonstrations while maintaining enhanced vigilance around government facilities and infrastructure. Business operations continue with contingency planning for potential civil unrest.
Communities hosting displaced families from the south face additional strain as reconstruction delays continue. Educational institutions operate under enhanced security protocols following recent child casualties in southern regions.
International schools and businesses maintain elevated security measures while monitoring political developments closely. The region’s economic activities show resilience but operate under shadow of potential instability.
Key Factor: Preventing spillover from Beirut political confrontation while maintaining economic stability.
NORTH LEBANON 🌊
Index Reading: 72/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Displacement and Border Pressures. The region manages what President Aoun described as “the largest [refugee crisis] in history” per capita, with Lebanon burdened by an “unprecedented displacement situation”. Syrian refugee populations face deteriorating conditions with 90% living in poverty.
Tripoli experiences ongoing security challenges from both internal displacement management and potential impacts from political tensions in Beirut. Cross-border dynamics require careful monitoring as regional instability persists.
Local security forces operate under strain while managing multiple crisis points. Economic activities in port areas continue with enhanced security measures but face uncertainty from political developments.
Humanitarian organizations struggle to meet growing needs while international assistance remains insufficient. Communities show resilience but resources are stretched to breaking point.
Key Factor: Managing massive displacement crisis while preventing security deterioration from political tensions.
AKKAR 🌲
Index Reading: 74/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Border Security Under Strain. The Syrian border region faces complex challenges as ongoing violations in the south combine with refugee movements and limited resources for border management.
Border security forces continue operations with U.S. assistance but lack sufficient resources for comprehensive control. Cross-border economic activities face restrictions while humanitarian needs grow.
Local communities navigate difficult conditions with traditional support systems under extreme pressure. Agricultural activities continue but face security constraints and market disruptions.
International support remains limited despite growing needs. Security coordination with Syrian authorities remains complex amid ongoing regional instability.
Key Factor: Maintaining border security with limited resources while managing humanitarian crisis.
BEQAA VALLEY 🍇
Index Reading: 82/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Disarmament Resistance Center. The valley faces maximum pressure as Hezbollah’s opposition to disarmament is absolute, with their five Shiite ministers leaving cabinet meetings in protest, while the group conducts counter-campaigns emphasizing “We will die before we give up our weapons”.
The December 31 deadline looms while implementation resources remain insufficient. The Lebanese army’s plan sketches three scenarios, including armed resistance from Hezbollah, with the army lacking sufficient political support and military strength to fulfill the mission without risking civil strife.
Agricultural communities face uncertainty about future security arrangements. Traditional economic activities continue under shadow of potential confrontation. Infrastructure remains vulnerable to both Israeli strikes and internal tensions.
Enhanced Lebanese Armed Forces presence continues but effectiveness is limited by resource constraints and political complications.
Key Factor: Critical disarmament deadline approaching with high risk of armed confrontation.
BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌
Index Reading: 83/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Maximum Implementation Challenges. The region represents ground zero for disarmament resistance with Hezbollah’s strongest infrastructure and support base concentrated here.
Questions arise about whether disarmament means complete removal of all weaponry including searches in “private property” within civilian areas where Hezbollah hides large portions of its arsenal, including weapon production facilities.
Cultural sites and civilian infrastructure intertwined with military assets create complex operational challenges. Local populations strongly support resistance with economic dependencies on Hezbollah’s financial networks.
International monitoring remains limited while security forces lack capacity for comprehensive operations in this challenging terrain.
Key Factor: Highest risk zone for disarmament confrontation with deeply embedded resistance infrastructure.
KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️
Index Reading: 60/100 🟠
Status: Elevated – Watching Political Crisis. The coastal governorate maintains better conditions but monitors Beirut’s political confrontation with concern. Tourism sector adopts wait-and-see approach as September 25 deadline approaches.
Local authorities maintain coordination with national security forces while preparing contingency plans. Business communities express concern about potential civil unrest spreading from capital.
Cultural and historical sites maintain standard security protocols while international visitors show caution. Economic activities continue but investment decisions are delayed pending political resolution.
Community leaders work to maintain calm while preparing for potential instability spillover.
Key Factor: Maintaining stability while capital faces political confrontation test.
SOUTH LEBANON 🌴
Index Reading: 94/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Active Violation Zone Under Occupation. Israel launched fresh waves of airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, with the IDF issuing evacuation warnings for multiple sites before strikes targeting weapon depots belonging to Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force.
The Lebanese army warned that Israeli strikes were violations of the ceasefire hampering its deployment in the south and could block implementation of its plan to end Hezbollah’s armed presence south of the Litani River.
Civilian populations cannot safely return to destroyed villages. Reconstruction efforts remain stalled due to ongoing security threats. Emergency services operate under extreme danger with limited access to affected areas.
Israeli forces maintain and expand positions with eight locations now reported instead of the original five. Daily violations continue despite international diplomatic efforts.
Key Factor: Active war zone conditions preventing stabilization or disarmament implementation.
NABATIEH ⛪
Index Reading: 90/100 🔴
Status: Critical – Violation Impact Zone. The governorate suffers from proximity to active violation zones with civilian populations under constant threat. Recent massacres create ongoing trauma and displacement.
Medical facilities operate at capacity while managing casualties from ongoing strikes. Educational institutions cannot safely operate in many areas. Essential services face severe disruptions.
Community support systems strain under continued pressure while international humanitarian access remains limited. Local authorities lack resources for adequate civilian protection.
Infrastructure damage accumulates with no safe window for repairs or reconstruction.
Key Factor: Managing humanitarian crisis under active threat conditions.
🎯 CURRENT SECURITY ASSESSMENT – UN DIPLOMATIC PERIOD
🔴 CRITICAL RISK AREAS – MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS:
Priority Level 1 – Imminent Confrontation Risk:
- Raouche Rock Beirut – September 25 political confrontation flashpoint
- All Southern Border Areas – Daily Israeli strikes and violations continue
- Bekaa Valley Disarmament Zones – Armed resistance preparations reported
- Government Buildings Beirut – Enhanced threat during political crisis
- UNIFIL Positions – Caught between violations and implementation pressures
Priority Level 2 – Severe Risk Areas: 6. LAF Deployment Zones – Forces lack resources for disarmament mission 7. Hezbollah Strongholds – Preparing defensive positions against disarmament 8. Major Urban Centers – Political tension spillover risk September 25 9. Syrian Border Crossings – Refugee crisis and security deterioration 10. Critical Infrastructure – Vulnerable to both strikes and civil unrest
⚠️ SEPTEMBER 25 FLASHPOINT WARNING:
Raouche Rock Confrontation Scenarios:
- Government Forces vs. Hezbollah Supporters – Direct confrontation risk
- Civil Unrest Spread – Potential for citywide demonstrations
- Security Forces Divided – Risk of force fragmentation along sectarian lines
- International Intervention – Diplomatic pressure may escalate tensions
- Media Amplification – Global attention increases stakes for all parties
📊 DISARMAMENT DEADLINE CRISIS FACTORS:
- Army Resources Insufficient – Cannot implement by December 31
- Political Support Fragmented – Government lacks unified backing
- Hezbollah Resistance Firm – “Die before disarm” stance maintained
- Israeli Strikes Continue – Undermines Lebanese implementation capacity
- International Pressure Mounting – U.S. threats of aid cutoff
📱 CRITICAL SECURITY GUIDANCE – SEPTEMBER 24-25 PERIOD
🚨 IMMEDIATE 48-HOUR WARNING:
SEPTEMBER 25 CONFRONTATION ALERT: All residents and visitors must prepare for potential civil unrest centered on Beirut’s Raouche area from 5:00 PM to 7:00 PM on September 25, with high risk of escalation and spread to other areas.
URGENT SECURITY MEASURES:
- AVOID RAOUCHE AREA – Stay minimum 2km from coastline 5-7 PM September 25
- AVOID ALL DEMONSTRATIONS – Both pro and anti-government gatherings
- STOCK ESSENTIAL SUPPLIES – 72-hour minimum food, water, medications
- PREPARE EVACUATION PLANS – Multiple routes from residence/workplace
- MONITOR COMMUNICATIONS – Keep phones charged, multiple news sources
BUSINESS CONTINGENCY REQUIREMENTS:
- EARLY CLOSURE SEPTEMBER 25 – Recommend closing by 3:00 PM
- REMOTE WORK PROTOCOLS – Activate for September 25-26 minimum
- SECURE FACILITIES – Enhanced physical security measures required
- STAFF SAFETY PRIORITY – Ensure safe departure before demonstrations
🏢 DIPLOMATIC PERIOD OPERATIONS:
GOVERNMENT ZONE RESTRICTIONS:
- Enhanced security checks at all government facilities
- Possible road closures around Parliament and Grand Serail
- Diplomatic quarter on high alert status
- International organization compounds increase security
🚗 MOVEMENT RESTRICTIONS SEPTEMBER 24-25:
CRITICAL TRAVEL ADVISORY:
- BEIRUT CITY CENTER – Avoid non-essential travel September 25
- COASTAL ROADS – May face sudden closures around Raouche
- SOUTHERN SUBURBS – Heightened tensions, avoid if possible
- AIRPORT ROAD – Keep alternate routes ready, protests possible
🔮 72-HOUR FORECAST – CRITICAL DECISION PERIOD
Predicted Index Reading: 87/100
Forecast Trend: 📈 ESCALATION LIKELY AROUND SEPTEMBER 25
Confrontation Probability Assessment:
- Raouche Rock Clash (75% probability) – Security forces vs. Hezbollah supporters
- Government Authority Test Failed (80% probability) – Hezbollah proceeds despite ban
- Civil Unrest Spread (60% probability) – Demonstrations expand beyond Raouche
- Israeli Exploitation (70% probability) – Strikes increase during internal tensions
- Political Crisis Deepening (85% probability) – Government authority undermined
Critical Watch Factors:
- 5:00 PM September 25 – Hezbollah gathering begins
- 6:50 PM September 25 – Lebanese flag illumination attempt
- 6:55 PM September 25 – Nasrallah/Safieddine images confrontation point
- Post-7:00 PM – Escalation or de-escalation determination
- September 26 – Government response and aftermath management
Escalation Triggers:
- Any casualties during confrontation
- Mass arrests of Hezbollah supporters
- Israeli strikes during internal tension
- Security force fragmentation
- Regional actor intervention
📊 CRITICAL SITUATION ANALYSIS
Today’s Security Level: Critical with Imminent Confrontation Risk
Change from Previous: +2 points (Deterioration due to political crisis)
Trend Direction: Negative – Internal confrontation compounds external threats
Assessment: Lebanon faces its most serious internal political crisis since government formation, with the September 25 Raouche Rock confrontation representing a critical test of state authority against Hezbollah at the worst possible time.
Strategic Crisis Analysis: President Aoun’s UN address calling for immediate cessation of Israeli aggression occurs simultaneously with the government’s first major confrontation with Hezbollah over state authority. The symbolism of the Raouche Rock dispute transcends a simple memorial event – it represents the fundamental question of whether the Lebanese state can assert its monopoly over national symbols and spaces.
The timing could not be worse: Israeli strikes continue daily, the army lacks resources for disarmament, political unity is fractured, and international patience is exhausted. The September 25 confrontation may determine whether peaceful disarmament remains possible or whether Lebanon descends into internal conflict.
The convergence of external aggression, internal political crisis, humanitarian catastrophe, and economic collapse creates unprecedented risks. Government authority, already weakened, faces its greatest test since formation.
🛡️ CIS SECURITY: CRITICAL PERIOD MAXIMUM ALERT PROTOCOLS
🔴 MAXIMUM ALERT STATUS – SEPTEMBER 24-26 CRITICAL PERIOD
During the September 25 political confrontation and ongoing security crisis, CIS Security activates maximum alert protocols with comprehensive crisis management capabilities.
SEPTEMBER 25 CRISIS RESPONSE SERVICES:
Raouche Confrontation Management:
- Advance Intelligence Gathering – Real-time monitoring of gathering preparations
- Evacuation Corridors – Pre-positioned assets for emergency extraction
- Safe House Activation – Secure locations away from confrontation zones
- Medical Emergency Response – Standby trauma teams and evacuation routes
- Communication Networks – Redundant systems operational during civil unrest
Political Crisis Security Operations:
- Government Facility Protection – Enhanced security for critical infrastructure
- VIP Protection Services – Increased protection for at-risk individuals
- Demonstration Monitoring – Real-time intelligence on crowd movements
- Sectarian Tension Assessment – Early warning systems for communal violence
- International Coordination – Direct liaison with diplomatic security
Business Continuity Support:
- Facility Lockdown Protocols – Immediate implementation capabilities
- Staff Evacuation Management – Coordinated departure planning and execution
- Asset Protection Services – Securing critical business resources
- Remote Operations Support – Enabling continued operations during crisis
- Insurance Documentation – Comprehensive incident recording for claims
COMPREHENSIVE CRISIS CAPABILITIES:
Multi-Domain Threat Response:
- Simultaneous management of internal and external threats
- Coordination between political, security, and humanitarian responses
- Integration with international security and diplomatic channels
- Advanced threat assessment incorporating all risk factors
- Proactive rather than reactive security posturing
Enhanced Intelligence Operations:
- 24/7 monitoring of political, security, and social media channels
- Predictive analysis of escalation patterns and triggers
- Ground intelligence from embedded local networks
- Coordination with international intelligence partners
- Real-time threat evolution tracking
🔴 EMERGENCY HOTLINES – MAXIMUM ALERT
CRISIS RESPONSE CENTER: +961-3-539900
Immediate response for September 25 confrontation period
EVACUATION COORDINATION: 24/7 emergency extraction services
MEDICAL EMERGENCY: Dedicated trauma response teams
SAFE HOUSE NETWORK: Pre-positioned secure locations activated
Critical Period Operations Centers:
- Beirut Crisis Command: Central coordination for capital security
- Raouche Monitoring Post: Direct observation of confrontation zone
- Regional Security Hubs: Nationwide coverage for crisis response
- International Liaison Center: Diplomatic and military coordination
During Lebanon’s most critical 72-hour period, CIS Security’s maximum alert protocols provide comprehensive protection and crisis management capabilities. Your safety is our absolute priority during this unprecedented convergence of threats.
⚠️ CRITICAL SECURITY ALERT – SEPTEMBER 24-26
MAXIMUM THREAT WARNING: Lebanon enters its most dangerous period since government formation with the September 25 Raouche Rock confrontation coinciding with ongoing Israeli violations, disarmament deadline pressure, and President Aoun’s UN diplomatic efforts.
Critical Timeline:
- September 24: Final preparations and tension building
- September 25, 5:00 PM: Confrontation initiation point
- September 25, 6:55 PM: Peak confrontation moment
- September 26: Aftermath and potential escalation
Confrontation Variables:
- Government resolve to enforce authority
- Hezbollah determination to proceed
- Security force unity or fragmentation
- Public reaction and participation
- Israeli opportunistic actions
- International intervention timing
SURVIVAL PRIORITIES SEPTEMBER 25:
- Physical safety through avoidance
- Essential supplies secured
- Multiple evacuation routes ready
- Communication redundancy maintained
- Documentation of all incidents
Professional Risk Assessment: The September 25 Raouche Rock confrontation represents more than a memorial dispute – it is a defining moment for Lebanese state authority. Failure to prevent the unauthorized event undermines all future disarmament efforts. Success through force risks civil conflict. The government has no good options, only degrees of bad outcomes.
International Context: With President Aoun at the UN seeking support while his government faces its first major authority challenge, international confidence in Lebanon’s ability to implement disarmament hangs in the balance. The outcome will determine future international assistance and diplomatic support.
🔍 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY EXCELLENCE – CIS SECURITY LEBANON
Trusted Crisis Management Since 1990 – “When Every Decision Matters”
During Lebanon’s most critical security convergence – political confrontation, ongoing violations, and disarmament crisis – trust CIS Security’s 35+ years of proven expertise in complex crisis management. As Lebanon’s premier security company with unmatched government and international coordination capabilities, we provide comprehensive protection during this unprecedented period.
September 25 Specialized Services:
- Confrontation Avoidance Planning – Strategic positioning away from risk zones
- Real-Time Intelligence Updates – Minute-by-minute situation monitoring
- Emergency Extraction Teams – Pre-positioned rapid response units
- Medical Emergency Support – Trauma teams and evacuation capabilities
- Safe Haven Networks – Secure locations throughout greater Beirut
- International Evacuation – Cross-border movement if required
Why CIS Security During Crisis: ✓ 35+ Years Crisis Experience – Managed Lebanon’s worst security periods
✓ Government Coordination Access – Direct channels during emergencies
✓ International Recognition – Trusted by diplomatic missions globally
✓ Proven Track Record – Zero client casualties in managed evacuations
✓ Comprehensive Capabilities – Full-spectrum crisis management
✓ Local Knowledge Advantage – Embedded networks providing real intelligence
📞 Security : +961-3-539900
💬 WhatsApp: 24/7 monitored
🌐 Portal: www.cissecurity.net
📧 Crisis: info@cissecurity.net
When Lebanon faces its greatest test of state authority amid multiple crises, CIS Security provides the experience, capabilities, and determination to protect what matters most – your life and safety. Contact us immediately for September 25 preparations.
