CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – May 12 2026

Tuesday, May 12, 2026

⛔ CEASEFIRE DAY 26 | WAR DAY 74 | TRUMP: “NOT LONG” BEFORE WAR ENDS — BOARDS PLANE TO CHINA | 2 DAYS TO MAY 14-15 | 2,883 TOTAL KILLED

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴🔴 CATASTROPHIC OVERALL INDEX: 93/100 TREND: 🔴🔴 MAXIMUM ESCALATION — IDF blows up Deir Mimas water pumping station; 2 Civil Defense volunteers killed at Nabatieh Civil Defense Center entrance; ~10 killed overnight/today; Hezbollah’s Qassem: “We will turn it into hell for Israel”; Trump pivot: “not long” before war ends as he departs for China; 5 new evacuation orders including Sohmor (Bekaa); Rory Challands: ceasefire “hanging on in name only”; 2,883 total dead; 2 DAYS TO MAY 14-15

⚡ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY — TUESDAY MAY 12, 2026

Lebanon wakes on Day 26 of its ceasefire with a new death toll of 2,883, two Civil Defense volunteers killed at the entrance of Nabatieh’s Civil Defense Center, a solar-powered water pumping station deliberately blown up in the Christian village of Deir Mimas — and Hezbollah’s leader threatening to turn the battlefield into “hell” for Israel. Two days from the Washington talks, the ceasefire exists, as Al Jazeera’s Rory Challands put it plainly, “in name only.”

THE DEFINING HEADLINES OF TODAY:

TRUMP PIVOT: FROM “LIFE SUPPORT” TO “NOT LONG” — Yesterday’s “life support” declaration has shifted to Trump claiming it won’t be “long” before the Iran war ends, and he has boarded Air Force One for a trip to China. This is the most significant diplomatic data point of the day. The language shift — from imminent death to cautious optimism — matters enormously. Whether it reflects genuine behind-the-scenes progress or is performance for Beijing is unknown. But the president who said “life support” 24 hours ago is now saying “not long.” That shift keeps the May 14-15 talks on track.

QASSEM: “WE WILL TURN IT INTO HELL FOR ISRAEL” — Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem, in a televised statement to his fighters on May 12, declared that his group’s weapons will never be part of negotiations, pledged never to abandon the battlefield, and threatened to turn Lebanon into “hell” for Israeli forces. He simultaneously outlined a 5-point cooperation framework with the Lebanese government and said Hezbollah supports Lebanese army deployment south of the Litani. This is a document of contradiction: cooperation with the state, total refusal of disarmament, and a maximalist military threat.

2 CIVIL DEFENSE VOLUNTEERS KILLED IN NABATIEH CITY — Three successive Israeli drone strikes hit the entrance to Nabatieh’s Civil Defense Center, killing two volunteers. This is the most significant direct targeting of emergency responders since the Health Authority strikes on Qalawiya and Tibnin (May 10). Nabatieh city itself — not a border village — was struck by three consecutive drone strikes at a rescue organization’s headquarters.

DEIR MIMAS WATER PUMPING STATION DELIBERATELY DESTROYED — Israeli forces rigged with explosives and blew up the solar-powered water pumping station supplying drinking water to Deir Mimas, a partially inhabited Christian village in Marjayoun district. Former mayor Georges Nakad confirmed the destruction to L’Orient Today. A 4-story Greek Orthodox foundation building was simultaneously demolished.

RORY CHALLANDS (AL JAZEERA): CEASEFIRE “HANGING ON IN NAME ONLY” — Al Jazeera’s Beirut correspondent says the upcoming Washington talks “will essentially determine the next phase of this ceasefire, which is really hanging on in name only.”

AOUN-NETANYAHU MEETING: OFF THE TABLE — Lebanon firmly refuses any direct presidential-level sit-down until Israel withdraws from south Lebanon. The US and Israel had pushed for it.

📅 EVENTS — MAY 11 → MAY 12

🚨 BREAKING DEVELOPMENTS — TUESDAY MAY 12, 2026

🟡 #1 — TRUMP: “NOT LONG” BEFORE IRAN WAR ENDS — DEPARTS FOR CHINA — SIGNIFICANT DIPLOMATIC PIVOT

[Al Jazeera May 12 live page — now closed; Times of Israel May 12 liveblog confirmed]

Al Jazeera’s May 12 live page — covering the US-Israel war on Iran and Israel’s attacks on Lebanon — is titled: “Trump says ‘not long’ before Iran war ends.” US President Donald Trump boarded Air Force One on Tuesday, May 12, for a trip to China.

This is a significant diplomatic pivot from yesterday’s “life support” declaration. Trump’s language has moved from imminent collapse to cautious optimism in a 24-hour window. The China trip is directly relevant: Beijing has leverage over Tehran, and Trump arriving in China while US-Iran negotiations are at a critical juncture is not coincidental.

For Lebanon: If the US-Iran diplomatic track is advancing rather than collapsing, the May 14-15 Washington talks take place in a more stable environment than yesterday’s “life support” framing suggested. The index drops marginally from 94 to 93 on this signal — but the ground situation overrides any diplomatic optimism.

🔴 #2 — TOTAL KILLED: 2,883 — UPDATED MAY 12 FIGURE

[Al Jazeera May 12 live page metadata confirmed]

The death toll from Israel’s attacks on Lebanon since March 2 has risen to 2,883, as two paramedics were targeted and killed in the south.

2,883 is the confirmed updated figure for May 12. This is up from 2,846 (May 11 Al Jazeera analysis) — a 37-person increase reflecting the killing days of May 11-12. Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health reported that at least 380 people have been killed during the truce, bringing the total death toll since the Israeli invasion and bombardment began on March 2 to more than 2,800.

🔴 #3 — 2 CIVIL DEFENSE VOLUNTEERS KILLED AT NABATIEH CIVIL DEFENSE CENTER — THREE SUCCESSIVE DRONE STRIKES

[L’Orient Today — 1 day ago, May 12 report confirmed; NNA]

Three successive Israeli drone strikes targeted Nabatieh and hit the entrance to the city’s Civil Defense Center, killing two volunteers, as confirmed by the rescue organization in a statement.

Three consecutive drone strikes on a Civil Defense headquarters in Nabatieh city itself — not a border village, not an ambiguous dual-use site, but the entrance to the municipal emergency rescue organization. Two volunteers are dead. This pattern — paramedics killed May 10 in Qalawiya and Tibnin, Civil Defense volunteers killed May 12 in Nabatieh city — constitutes a systematic assault on Lebanon’s emergency response infrastructure across multiple days and locations. The UN count of 103 medical and emergency workers killed since March 2 will rise further with today’s confirmed deaths.

🔴 #4 — ~10 KILLED IN OVERNIGHT/TODAY STRIKES — FULL BREAKDOWN

[L’Orient Today — May 12 confirmed; NNA; SANA]

Israeli airstrikes and drone bombings killed around ten people in total over the past night and today. The strikes killed three people in Jibsheet (Nabatieh), three others in the city of Nabatieh itself including two rescuers, four in Kfar Dounin (Bint Jbeil), and one more person in Tayr Debba (Sour), with about a dozen wounded.

The geographic spread of today’s confirmed kills: Jibsheet (Nabatieh), Nabatieh city (Nabatieh), Kfar Dounin (Bint Jbeil), Tayr Debba (Tyre). This is not concentrated in one area — it is a broad-spectrum strike pattern across multiple governorate sub-districts, all within the ceasefire period.

🔴 #5 — IDF BLOWS UP SOLAR WATER PUMPING STATION IN DEIR MIMAS — DELIBERATE WATER INFRASTRUCTURE DESTRUCTION

[L’Orient Today — May 12; NNA; SANA confirmed]

An Israeli force advanced into the Hura–Ras al-Khalleh area near the Waqf building in the town of Deir Mimas in Marjayoun district, Nabatieh province. According to NNA, the force rigged with explosives a solar-powered water pumping station supplying drinking water to the town before detonating it around dawn, causing extensive damage.

According to former mayor of Deir Mimas Georges Nakad, the Israeli army had destroyed the village’s well, depriving residents of one of their main water supply sources. He added that these Israeli attacks also hit a four-story residential building containing eight apartments, owned by the village’s Greek Orthodox foundation, which was completely destroyed.

Deir Mimas is a Christian village in the Marjayoun district, partially inhabited — meaning some residents remained under Israeli occupation of the “buffer zone.” The deliberate destruction of the village’s water supply and the demolition of a Greek Orthodox charitable foundation building represents a new category of infrastructure warfare. This is not a strike on a Hezbollah site — it is the systematic dismantling of a Lebanese Christian village’s basic infrastructure.

🔴 #6 — QASSEM: “WE WILL TURN IT INTO HELL FOR ISRAEL” — WEAPONS NOT FOR NEGOTIATION — 5-POINT FRAMEWORK

[Al Jazeera May 12; Times of Israel May 12 liveblog; ANI confirmed]

Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said the group’s weapons were not part of the upcoming negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, and vowed his fighters would turn the battlefield into “hell” for Israeli forces. “Nobody outside Lebanon has anything to do with the weapons, the resistance… this is an internal Lebanese matter and not part of negotiations with the enemy,” Qassem said ahead of the third round of talks in Washington.

Qassem asserted during a televised address: “We will not abandon the field. We will turn it into hell for Israel.”

Qassem outlined a framework for future cooperation with the Lebanese government, focusing on five pivotal objectives — an end to Israeli operations, the withdrawal of the IDF, the release of Lebanese prisoners, the return of civilians to southern Lebanon, and reconstruction. He also said Hezbollah supports the deployment of the Lebanese army south of the Litani River.

This statement is a direct challenge to the Washington talks framework. The talks’ central premise — from Israel’s perspective — is Hezbollah disarmament. Qassem has declared that weapons are an internal Lebanese matter outside any negotiations. He has simultaneously threatened maximum military escalation and offered conditional cooperation with the Lebanese state. This contradiction defines the impossible position of Lebanon’s delegation in Washington: representing a state whose most powerful armed group has just publicly said it will never disarm.

🔴 #7 — 5 NEW EVACUATION ORDERS: SOHMOR (BEKAA), ARZOUN, TAYR DEBBA, BAZOURIYEH, AL-HAUSH

[Al Jazeera May 12; L’Orient Today May 12 confirmed]

Israel showed no signs of slowing its military operations on Tuesday, issuing a series of new forced displacement orders. In statements on X, the Israeli military’s Arabic-language spokesman Avichay Adraee told residents to flee from the town of Sohmor in the Bekaa Valley, and the towns of Arzoun, Tayr Debba, Bazouriyeh and al-Haush in southern Lebanon.

Five new communities. The inclusion of Sohmor in the Bekaa Valley continues the systematic expansion of evacuation orders beyond the traditional south Lebanon theatre. Sohmor joins Machghara and Qlayaa (both ordered yesterday) in the Bekaa expansion zone. The five communities ordered today add to the nine ordered yesterday, which added to the dozens ordered in the prior weeks. The geographic expansion is relentless.

🔴 #8 — IDF DESTROYS TWO AMBULANCES AND FIRE TRUCK IN ARZOUN STRIKE

[L’Orient Today — May 12 confirmed; L’Orient Today confirmed]

An earlier bombing raid on Arzoun, which struck near rescue workers from the Islamic Mission Scouts Association (al-Risala, affiliated with the Amal Movement), destroyed five residential units, including a building belonging to the association, and put two ambulances and a fire truck out of service.

Two ambulances and a fire truck — the vehicles that constitute emergency response capacity in a war zone — put permanently out of service in a single strike. The pattern of targeting emergency response vehicles and infrastructure is consistent across the war’s timeline. With 103+ medical and emergency workers now dead and their equipment systematically destroyed, south Lebanon’s emergency response capacity is being methodically dismantled.

🔴 #9 — RORY CHALLANDS (AL JAZEERA BEIRUT): CEASEFIRE “HANGING ON IN NAME ONLY”

[Al Jazeera May 12 — confirmed]

The upcoming Israel-Lebanon meeting in the US will “essentially determine the next phase of this ceasefire, which is really hanging on in name only,” said Al Jazeera’s Rory Challands from Beirut. He said the meeting was not expected to lead to any imminent face-to-face sit-down between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which the US and Israel have pushed for. “This is off the table for the moment. The Lebanese are firmly opposed to that at this stage in the conflict, at least until the Israelis have pulled out of southern Lebanon.”

“Hanging on in name only” is the May 12 version of May 11’s “pretence.” The Aoun-Netanyahu direct meeting being “off the table” represents a fundamental gap between US-Israel expectations and Lebanese red lines heading into May 14-15.

🔴 #10 — PM SALAM APPEALS TO US AMBASSADOR: “EXERT PRESSURE ON ISRAEL TO STOP”

[Al Jazeera May 12 confirmed]

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said he asked US Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa to “exert pressure on Israel to stop the ongoing attacks and violations, in order to consolidate the ceasefire.”

This is Lebanon’s formal diplomatic escalation ahead of May 14-15: Prime Minister-level appeal to the US Ambassador to use American leverage to stop Israeli attacks before the talks. The appeal acknowledges that Lebanon cannot stop Israel directly — only Washington can. Whether the US will exercise that leverage in the 48 hours before talks is the central question.

🔴 #11 — IDF CROSSES LITANI TOWARD ZAWTAR AL-SHARQIEH; DEMOLITIONS IN BINT JBEIL; 1,100+ SITES STRUCK SINCE CEASEFIRE

[L’Orient Today May 12; Al Jazeera May 12 confirmed]

Israelis blew up a well supplying water to the still-inhabited village of Deir Mimas in the eastern sector, and said they crossed the Litani River last week toward Zawtar Sharqieh. The Israeli military also demolished homes in Bint Jbeil. Israel’s air force says it has targeted more than 1,100 sites in Lebanon since the so-called truce began.

1,100 Israeli strike sites since April 16 — the most comprehensive single-number measure of ceasefire violations published to date. This is Israel’s own figure, confirming the scale of its operations since the ceasefire began. The crossing of the Litani toward Zawtar al-Sharqieh represents continued territorial expansion beyond the original “Yellow Line” zone.

⚠️ #12 — KUWAIT FOILS IRGC INFILTRATION OPERATION AT BUBIYAN ISLAND — IRAN DENIES

[Al Jazeera May 12; confirmed]

Kuwait says four members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attempted to enter the country via its Bubiyan Island with the aim of launching “hostile” activities. Iran denied the accusations, saying the arrested sailors were in Kuwaiti waters due to a navigation system malfunction.

A foiled IRGC operation in a Gulf state — on the same day Trump boards Air Force One for China and claims the war will end “not long” from now. The IRGC’s continued operational activity in Gulf waters, simultaneous with Iranian nuclear diplomacy, is a direct contradiction of any “peace is imminent” narrative. If Kuwait’s version of events is accurate, Iran’s IRGC is escalating its covert operations against Gulf states even as diplomats negotiate.

⚠️ #13 — ACLED: 268 CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACKS; 57% AFTER CEASEFIRE; NABATIEH MOST DAMAGED

[The National — published May 13, based on ACLED data]

Data from the monitoring group Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) shows 268 destructive attacks on civilian infrastructure — 15 per cent before the Iran war, 28 per cent during the war, and 57 per cent after the ceasefire announcement. At all stages, al-Nabatieh has been the most damaged region.

57% of all civilian infrastructure destruction in this war has occurred after the ceasefire was announced. Not before. Not during the most intense war phase. After the ceasefire. This ACLED figure is among the most damning statistical indictments of the ceasefire’s implementation. Nabatieh being the “most damaged region at all stages” is consistent with everything CIS has tracked since March 2.

🌡️ GOVERNORATE SECURITY INDEX — MAY 12, 2026

🏙️ BEIRUT

Index: 76/100 🟠 | Trend: Elevated — Trump “not long” eases maximum-alert posture marginally; Qassem threatens maximum escalation; talks 2 days away

Beirut’s overall threat level drops modestly from 79 to 76 on Trump’s diplomatic language shift. This is not safety — it is a marginal reduction in the probability of an immediate catastrophic ceasefire collapse. The Qassem statement and ground-level escalation sustain the elevated posture. Dahiyeh was struck May 7; the highway near Beirut was struck May 9. Beirut residents should maintain shelter-ready status. Do not interpret Trump’s “not long” as grounds for complacency.

🏞️ MOUNT LEBANON

Index: 65/100 🟡 | Trend: Elevated — talks approaching; diplomatic wildcard

Mount Lebanon physically calm. The Trump-to-China development introduces the most significant diplomatic wildcard since the ceasefire extension on April 23. A US-China-Iran back-channel may be the thing keeping the broader war from resuming this week.

🌊 NORTH LEBANON & TRIPOLI

Index: 62/100 🟡 | Trend: Stable

North Lebanon remains the primary safety zone for internal displacement. 2,883 killed since March 2. No new strikes in North Lebanon on May 12.

🌲 AKKAR

Index: 62/100 🟡 | Trend: Stable

Masnaa crossing remains open. Rafic Hariri Airport operating.

🍇 BEQAA VALLEY

Index: 88/100 🔴🔴 | Trend: MAXIMUM — Sohmor under new evacuation order; Western Bekaa strike zone expanding; IDF crosses Litani toward Zawtar al-Sharqieh

Sohmor in the Bekaa Valley received an evacuation order today, joining Machghara and Qlayaa from yesterday. The Western Bekaa and Beqaa Valley are in an expanding active zone. The IDF’s stated crossing of the Litani toward Zawtar al-Sharqieh confirms continued geographic expansion of operations.

ANY PERSON IN SOHMOR, MACHGHARA, OR QLAYAA MUST LEAVE NOW.

🕌 BAALBEK-HERMEL

Index: 83/100 🔴🔴 | Trend: Maximum

Baalbek-Hermel faces maximum danger if US-Iran talks collapse after May 14-15. Qassem’s statement — delivered from Hezbollah’s heartland — makes clear the group intends to continue fighting indefinitely.

🌴 SOUTH LEBANON

Index: 97/100 🔴🔴 | Status: CATASTROPHIC — ~10 KILLED TODAY; 2 CIVIL DEFENSE VOLUNTEERS TARGETED AT NABATIEH CIVIL DEFENSE CENTER; WATER SUPPLY DELIBERATELY DESTROYED; 5 NEW EVACUATION ORDERS; HEZBOLLAH ATTACKS CONTINUE

Al Jazeera’s Obaida Hitto, reporting from Tyre in southern Lebanon, said there has been a “significant escalation” in attacks in the last week. However, many residents who previously returned to their towns after earlier displacement say they are unwilling to leave again. “The people are concerned that this is going to continue. But they are not going to be leaving the south,” Hitto said.

The statement from residents that they will not leave is an act of extraordinary civilian resilience — and an extraordinary danger. With 97/100 index and the systematic destruction of water, medical, and emergency infrastructure, every person who remains in south Lebanon does so at profound personal risk.

⛪ NABATIEH

Index: 98/100 🔴🔴 | Status: MAXIMUM CATASTROPHIC — NABATIEH CITY CIVIL DEFENSE CENTER ENTRANCE STRUCK BY THREE CONSECUTIVE DRONE STRIKES; 2 VOLUNTEERS KILLED; 3 KILLED IN NABATIEH CITY STRIKES; JIBSHEET AND KFAR TIBNIT ALSO STRUCK; DEIR MIMAS WATER DESTROYED

Nabatieh city itself — not just border villages — had its Civil Defense Center entrance struck by three consecutive Israeli drone strikes, killing two volunteers. At all stages of the war, al-Nabatieh has been the most damaged region — and today confirms this pattern continues under the ceasefire. ACLED’s 57%-of-all-damage-post-ceasefire figure means Nabatieh’s destruction has accelerated since April 16, not reduced.

📊 FULL DASHBOARD — MAY 12, 2026

🎯 CRITICAL INTELLIGENCE — MAY 12, 2026

⚠️ THE TRUMP PIVOT: WHAT “NOT LONG” MEANS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS

Trump’s shift from “life support” (May 11) to “not long” (May 12) is either:

A) Genuine signal of diplomatic progress — US-China-Iran back-channel is producing movement; Trump’s Beijing trip is partly to close or advance the Iran nuclear/ceasefire deal; the May 14-15 Lebanon talks proceed in a stabilising environment; the ceasefire does not collapse this week.

B) Diplomatic theatre — Trump performs optimism for Beijing’s benefit while US-Iran negotiations remain deadlocked; the “not long” is aspirational, not descriptive; ground reality in Lebanon continues regardless.

Both interpretations are consistent with the available evidence. The only certainty is that Trump’s language has shifted — and language shifts from this White House tend to track actual diplomatic movement, however imperfect. CIS assesses option A as marginally more likely than it was 24 hours ago, which is why the index drops from 94 to 93, not higher.

⚠️ QASSEM’S STATEMENT: WHAT “HELL FOR ISRAEL” MEANS FOR LEBANON

Qassem’s statement is simultaneously a maximum military threat and a conditional cooperation offer. His 5-point framework — end operations, IDF withdrawal, prisoner release, civilian return, reconstruction — is functionally the Lebanese government’s own position. His simultaneous declaration that weapons are non-negotiable means he is trying to:

1. Align with Lebanese state demands to avoid being isolated domestically
2. Preserve Hezbollah’s military capability as a non-negotiable red line
3. Threaten Israel to deter further escalation before the talks

The threat to turn Lebanon into “hell” is not new rhetoric — Qassem has made similar statements throughout the war. What is new is the timing: 48 hours before Washington talks, with Trump departing for Beijing. It is a statement intended to shape the talks’ parameters: Hezbollah will not be disarmed; negotiate around that fact or face maximum escalation.

⚠️ WATER INFRASTRUCTURE WARFARE — THE DEIR MIMAS PRECEDENT

The deliberate detonation of a solar-powered water pumping station in a partially inhabited Christian village represents the most direct documented case of water infrastructure destruction in this war. The IDF rigged the pump with explosives and detonated it at dawn. This is not collateral damage — it is deliberate, premeditated destruction of civilian water supply.

Under Article 54 of the 1977 Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions, attacking objects indispensable to the survival of the civilian population — including drinking water installations — is prohibited as a method of warfare. The Deir Mimas water pump, combined with the Health Authority strikes (May 10), the Civil Defense Center strikes (May 12), and the 103+ medical workers killed, will form a critical evidentiary cluster in any future international legal proceeding against Israeli military conduct in Lebanon.

⚠️ TWO DAYS TO MAY 14-15 — THE CURRENT STATE OF PLAY

The talks will occur. Simon Karam has his delegation. The venue is Washington. Trump will be in Beijing but US negotiating teams remain active. The question is what the talks can produce:

Most optimistic outcome: Another 3-week extension, explicit US commitment to press Israel on violations, a schedule for IDF withdrawal negotiations.

Most likely outcome: Extension of ceasefire for a limited period, with ambiguous language on disarmament and withdrawal that allows all parties to claim partial success.

Most pessimistic outcome: Talks collapse; ceasefire formally expires May 14; Lebanon returns to Black Wednesday-level bombardment.

The Trump pivot to “not long” makes the most pessimistic outcome less likely today than yesterday. Qassem’s statement makes a full peace deal less likely regardless of talks outcome.

📱 EMERGENCY GUIDANCE — MAY 12, 2026

🚨 MAXIMUM EMERGENCY — “NAME ONLY” CEASEFIRE; 2 DAYS TO TALKS

ALL LEBANESE — TODAY:

The ceasefire exists in name only. 2,883 are dead. Two Civil Defense volunteers were killed in Nabatieh city itself. A village’s water supply was deliberately destroyed at dawn. 1,100+ sites have been struck by Israel since the ceasefire began. Emergency preparedness is survival.

72-hour emergency kit — reconfirm now:

• ✅ Water: 3 litres per person per day × 3 days (Deir Mimas residents were deprived of their water today — CIS urges all south Lebanon residents to stockpile water independent of any supply system)
• ✅ Non-perishable food × 3 days
• ✅ Phone charged; power bank fully charged
• ✅ CIS +961-3-539900 | Red Cross 1760 | Civil Defence 125
• ✅ Shelter location confirmed
• ✅ Family emergency meeting point confirmed

SOUTH LEBANON: Civil Defense volunteers killed at Nabatieh Civil Defense Center. ~10 killed overnight/today. IDF has struck 1,100+ sites since April 16. Do not be in south Lebanon.

NABATIEH CITY: The city itself — not just the border villages — was struck by three consecutive drone strikes today at its Civil Defense Center. Nabatieh is not a safe city. Do not treat it as a safe haven.

SOHMOR (BEKAA VALLEY): New evacuation order today. Also: Machghara and Qlayaa (yesterday’s orders remain active). Anyone in these communities must leave immediately toward Zahle and then north.

DEIR MIMAS: Water supply deliberately destroyed. If you are a resident of Deir Mimas with access to no alternative water source, this is an emergency. Contact Red Cross: 1760.

ARZOUN: Bombed near rescue workers today. Two ambulances and fire truck destroyed. Five residential units demolished. Evacuate.

MEDICAL EMERGENCY IN SOUTH LEBANON: Two Civil Defense volunteers killed today. 103+ medical and emergency workers dead since March 2. Emergency response infrastructure is being systematically destroyed. Before approaching any medical facility in south Lebanon, Nabatieh, or the Bekaa: call Lebanese Red Cross 1760 first.

🚗 MAY 12 TRAVEL STATUS

🛡️ CIS SECURITY — MAY 12 MAXIMUM EMERGENCY — LEVEL 5

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 | “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

🔴🔴 LEVEL 5 MAXIMUM — “NAME ONLY” CEASEFIRE; 2 DAYS TO MAY 14-15 Level 5 protocols remain fully active. The diplomatic shift in Trump’s language is noted and monitored. It does not change ground reality in south Lebanon: 10 killed today, water infrastructure deliberately destroyed, Civil Defense volunteers killed, 1,100+ sites struck since April 16. All clients are being directly contacted. Call immediately if you have not heard from CIS: +961-3-539900.

💧 WATER INFRASTRUCTURE ALERT The deliberate destruction of the Deir Mimas water pumping station is a new category of warfare in this conflict. CIS is monitoring all water infrastructure in south Lebanon, Nabatieh, and the Bekaa. If your community’s water supply is disrupted for any reason, treat it as a potential security incident and contact us.

🚑 EMERGENCY RESPONSE INFRASTRUCTURE DESTROYED Two ambulances and a fire truck destroyed in Arzoun. Two Civil Defense volunteers killed in Nabatieh city. 103+ emergency workers dead since March 2. CIS maintains a live database of which emergency facilities remain operational in affected areas. Call before approaching any facility in south Lebanon or Nabatieh.

🕊️ MAY 14-15 TALKS — LIVE MONITORING CIS will monitor the Washington talks in real time. Simon Karam leads the Lebanese delegation. The talks open in 2 days. Whatever they produce — extension, framework, collapse — CIS will immediately provide guidance for each Lebanese governorate. Watch this channel.

📞 EMERGENCY CONTACTS — MAY 12, 2026

CIS Security 24/7: +961-3-539900 | www.cissecurity.net US Embassy Emergency: +1-202-501-4444 | BeirutACS@state.gov Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 | Civil Defence: 125 | ISF: 112 National Mental Health Lifeline: 1564 (24/7 — confidential)

⚠️ FINAL ASSESSMENT — MAY 12, 2026

War Day 74. Ceasefire Day 26. Two days to May 14-15.

Today brought two things simultaneously: the most cautiously hopeful diplomatic signal in weeks (Trump: “not long” before the war ends, boarding for Beijing) and the most systematically documented day of infrastructure warfare in the ceasefire period (water pumping station blown up, Civil Defense center targeted, ambulances destroyed, 10 dead).

Naim Qassem has told the world: Hezbollah’s weapons are not on the table. Ever. For anyone. This is the rock upon which the Washington talks will meet the hard place of Israel’s disarmament demand.

Al Jazeera’s Rory Challands says the ceasefire is “hanging on in name only.” ACLED’s data says 57% of all civilian infrastructure destruction in this war has happened after the ceasefire. 2,883 people are dead. Lebanon’s Civil Defense volunteers are being killed in Nabatieh city. The water supply of a Christian village was detonated at dawn.

Two days to talks that the world is watching.

Lebanon will not give up. It never has.

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ | Tuesday, May 12, 2026 | WAR DAY 74 | CEASEFIRE DAY 26 Sources: Al Jazeera live page May 12 (meta — 2,883 total killed; 2 paramedics targeted; Trump “not long”); Al Jazeera “Israeli military kills six in Lebanon, issues more displacement threats” (May 12 — Kfar Dounin 6 killed; Sohmor/Arzoun/Tayr Debba/Bazouriyeh/al-Haush evacuation orders; water pumping station Deir Mimas; demolitions

Bint Jbeil; 1,100+ sites since ceasefire; 380+ ceasefire deaths; Rory Challands “name only”; Qassem weapons statement; Salam-Issa appeal; Aoun-Netanyahu “off the table”); L’Orient Today May 12 “Around 10 killed by Israeli strikes in south Lebanon” (breakdown: Jibsheet 3, Nabatieh city 3 incl. 2 Civil Defense volunteers, Kfar Dounin 4, Tayr Debba 1; Civil Defense Center 3 drone strikes; Arzoun ambulances; Deir Mimas water station; Bayyada Merkava attack; Hezbollah 5 attacks midnight); L’Orient Today May 12 “Israel targets Lebanese Civil Defense in Nabatieh”

(Georges Nakad confirmed; Deir Mimas well blown up; Greek Orthodox building destroyed; IDF crossed Litani toward Zawtar al-Sharqieh; Qassem “hell”); SANA “Six killed in Israeli strike on Tyre district” (confirmed Deir Mimas pumping station; 2,869 death toll as of Monday); Times of Israel liveblog May 12 (Qassem “hell for Israel”; Trump Air Force One to China; IRGC Kuwait; May 12 events); The Tribune/ANI May 12 “We will turn it into hell” (Qassem full statement; 5-point framework; 6% territory); Al Jazeera May 12 “Kuwait foils infiltration by IRGC” (Bubiyan Island; Iran denies); The National May 13 “What ceasefire? Israel continues to destroy Lebanese property” (ACLED 268 attacks; 57% post-ceasefire; Nabatieh most damaged);

Wikipedia 2026 Lebanon War (updated 14 hours ago); Wikipedia Timeline (updated 6 hours ago); 2026 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire Wikipedia; 2026 Israel-Lebanon peace talks Wikipedia (Simon Karam; Trump chairs; third round May 14-15). All Lebanon casualty figures from Lebanese Ministry of Public Health unless otherwise noted. All UN data from confirmed UN statements. All IDF data from IDF official statements. Index compiled: Tuesday, May 12, 2026 — 16:00 Beirut time.