CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – May 13 2026

Wednesday, May 13, 2026

⛔ CEASEFIRE DAY 27 | WAR DAY 75 | TALKS OPEN TOMORROW IN WASHINGTON | CEASEFIRE EXPIRES MAY 17 — 4 DAYS | TRUMP IN BEIJING | IRAN: US PROPOSAL IS “DEMAND FOR SURRENDER”

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴🔴 CATASTROPHIC OVERALL INDEX: 95/100 TREND: 🔴🔴 MAXIMUM ESCALATION — JIYEH HIGHWAY MASSACRE: 8 KILLED INCLUDING 2 CHILDREN ON BEIRUT-SOUTH COASTAL ROAD, 20KM FROM CAPITAL; ~12 KILLED TODAY TOTAL; IDF CONFIRMED WEEKLONG CROSSING NORTH OF LITANI WITH ARMORED VEHICLES; QASSEM CALLS ON LEBANON TO WITHDRAW FROM WASHINGTON TALKS; IRAN: US PROPOSAL “DEMAND FOR SURRENDER”; TRUMP: IRAN PROPOSAL “GARBAGE”; PENTAGON IRAN WAR COST $29 BILLION; CEASEFIRE EXPIRY MAY 17 — 4 DAYS

⚡ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY — WEDNESDAY MAY 13, 2026

Lebanon wakes on War Day 75 to three Israeli drone strikes on civilian cars on the main Beirut-South coastal highway — 20 kilometres from the Lebanese capital — killing 8 people including 2 children in Barja, Jiyeh, and Saadiyat. It is the closest mass-casualty attack to Beirut since the ceasefire began. Washington talks open tomorrow. The ceasefire expires in four days. Iran is calling the US peace proposal a “demand for surrender.” Trump — now in Beijing — called Iran’s counter-proposal “garbage.” And Hezbollah’s Naim Qassem has escalated his position: no longer just refusing disarmament, he is now calling on Lebanon to withdraw from the Washington talks entirely.

THE DEFINING HEADLINES OF TODAY:

JIYEH HIGHWAY: 8 KILLED INCLUDING 2 CHILDREN — 20KM FROM BEIRUT — Three Israeli drone strikes hit civilian cars on the Saida-South coastal highway at Barja, Jiyeh, and Saadiyat. Two children are among the dead. The highway is one of the main arteries connecting Beirut to the south. This attack is not in the declared security zone, not in Nabatieh, not in Bint Jbeil. It is 20 kilometres from the Lebanese capital.

QASSEM: CALLS ON LEBANON TO WITHDRAW FROM WASHINGTON TALKS — Yesterday Qassem said weapons are non-negotiable. Today he has escalated: Hezbollah’s leader is calling on Lebanon to pull out of tomorrow’s talks in Washington entirely, citing constant Israeli attacks during the ceasefire period.

IRAN: US 14-POINT PROPOSAL IS “DEMAND FOR SURRENDER” — Iran has rejected the US proposal formally, setting five preconditions for resumed negotiations. Trump called Iran’s counter-proposal “garbage” before boarding for Beijing.

TRUMP ARRIVES IN BEIJING — AP confirmed Trump arrived at Beijing Capital International Airport on May 13. The Iran war and the ceasefire are expected to be a central topic with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

IDF CONFIRMS WEEKLONG CROSSING NORTH OF LITANI WITH ARMORED VEHICLES — Golani Reconnaissance Unit crossed the Litani, reached Zawtar al-Sharqiyah, killed dozens of Hezbollah fighters, and engineered crossing points for future use. 8 Israeli soldiers lightly wounded. The IDF has now established the infrastructure to cross the Litani at will.

CEASEFIRE EXPIRY: MAY 17 — FOUR DAYS — A critical correction from prior editions: the three-week extension announced April 23 expires May 17, not May 14. The talks on May 14-15 precede the expiry by two days, giving any agreement time to take effect before the deadline.

📅 EVENTS — MAY 12 → MAY 13

🚨 BREAKING DEVELOPMENTS — WEDNESDAY MAY 13, 2026

🔴 #1 — JIYEH HIGHWAY MASSACRE: 8 KILLED INCLUDING 2 CHILDREN — 20KM FROM BEIRUT — MOST ALARMING ATTACK OF CEASEFIRE PERIOD NEAR CAPITAL

[Al Jazeera — May 13, published today; AFP; Lebanon Health Ministry; Arab News; Times of Israel confirmed]

Three Israeli drone strikes on cars on a major highway linking Beirut to southern Lebanon killed at least eight people, including two children, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health. The attacks took place in the Jiyeh area, some 20 kilometres south of the Lebanese capital.

The Lebanese Ministry of Health said “the three raids carried out by the Israeli enemy on the Saida-South coastal highway — specifically in Barja, Jiyeh and Saadiyat — resulted in 8 martyrs, including two children.”

The three separate airstrikes were carried out well beyond the main theatre of conflict in the south, targeting vehicles on the coastal highway in an area around 20 kilometres south of Beirut, security sources said. Images showed a burnt-out car in the middle of the road and rescuers carrying a body at one of the sites, near Jiyeh. On Saturday, similar strikes targeted two other cars in the same area.

The significance of Jiyeh cannot be overstated. This is not the Yellow Line zone. This is not Nabatieh. This is not even the Litani River region. The Jiyeh area sits 20 kilometres south of Beirut on the main coastal highway. Beirut residents who drive south pass through Jiyeh on the way to Sidon, to Tyre, to their home villages. The three drone strikes hit three separate civilian cars on the public highway in Barja, Jiyeh, and Saadiyat. Two of the dead are children. The IDF did not immediately comment. This is the most alarming single attack near Beirut since the ceasefire began.

🔴 #2 — ~12 KILLED TODAY IN TOTAL — TYRE STRIKES AND SIDON AREA ALSO HIT

[PressTV; Antiwar.com; Democracy Now! — May 13 confirmed]

At least twelve people, including two children, have been killed in a string of Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon. According to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health, three separate air raids targeted vehicles on a major highway linking Beirut to the south. A fourth attack killed one person near the southern city of Sidon, 40 kilometres from Beirut.

The dozen people killed in today’s attacks were in addition to the 13 killed yesterday, which included two paramedics. Though the IDF purports that almost everyone they killed is Hezbollah, the slain persistently include a number of medical workers as well as women and children.

The May 12-13 rolling toll: 13 killed Tuesday, ~12 killed Wednesday. Across 48 hours, approximately 25 people killed — all under the formal ceasefire.

🔴 #3 — QASSEM: CALLS ON LEBANON TO WITHDRAW FROM WASHINGTON TALKS — MAJOR ESCALATION

[Antiwar.com — May 13; Al Jazeera confirmed]

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem called on Lebanon to withdraw from negotiations with Israel, citing the constant Israeli attacks during what was meant to be a ceasefire period.

Hezbollah, which has been launching attacks on northern Israel and on Israeli troops who have entered and occupied a section of southern Lebanon, says it opposes the negotiations in the US.

This is a significant escalation from yesterday’s position. On May 12, Qassem declared weapons non-negotiable and threatened “hell.” On May 13 — the day before the talks — he is calling on Lebanon’s government to not show up at all. This places Lebanese PM Salam and President Aoun under direct pressure from Lebanon’s most powerful armed group to cancel the talks. The Lebanese government’s attendance tomorrow becomes an act of political courage and a direct defiance of Hezbollah’s stated position.

🔴 #4 — IDF CONFIRMS WEEKLONG NORTH-OF-LITANI OPERATION: GOLANI RECON, ZAWTAR AL-SHARQIYAH, DOZENS KILLED, ARMORED VEHICLES, FUTURE CROSSING INFRASTRUCTURE

[Times of Israel; i24NEWS; Asharq Al-Awsat — confirmed]

The Israel Defense Forces announced that its troops recently crossed the Litani River for a weeklong raid against Hezbollah, led by the Golani Brigade’s Reconnaissance Unit. The IDF said the troops achieved “operational control” over the area and worked to clear it of Hezbollah infrastructure.

During the raid, the military says, troops encountered numerous Hezbollah operatives and killed dozens of them in close-quarters combat and by directing airstrikes. Despite this, the troops managed to cross the river with armoured vehicles. The army carried out engineering activity in the area to enable easier crossing of the river by troops in the future, if required.

At the peak of their advance, the forces reached a neighbourhood in Zawtar al-Sharqiya, a Shiite town considered a key strategic point. During the operation, several Hezbollah fighters emerged from a tunnel shaft and attempted to engage the forces. Some were eliminated on the spot while others fled. An Oketz unit attack dog chased after the fleeing fighters and was wounded by gunfire. Around eight soldiers were lightly wounded in close-quarters combat and explosive drone attacks.

Israeli escalation in southern Lebanon has entered a new phase after the Israeli army announced operations north of the Litani River, as heavy vehicles crossed toward the outskirts of eastern Zawtar. The move signalled a shift from limited strikes to an effort to impose new facts on the ground north of the river.

The engineering of crossing points for future armoured use is the most strategically significant military development of the ceasefire period. Israel has now:

1. Crossed the Litani with armoured vehicles during the ceasefire
2. Conducted a week-long ground operation north of the river
3. Built physical infrastructure for future crossings
4. Achieved “operational control” of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah
5. Disclosed this publicly on the eve of the Washington talks

This public disclosure on the eve of May 14-15 is a message to Lebanon’s delegation: Israel is not waiting for negotiations to expand its military position.

🔴 #5 — IRAN: US PROPOSAL IS “DEMAND FOR SURRENDER” — 5 PRECONDITIONS SET — TRUMP: “GARBAGE”

[CBS News live updates — May 13; Democracy Now! — May 13; ABC News confirmed]

Iran’s government had rejected the most recent US 14-point proposal for a peace deal as a “demand for surrender,” calling it an attempt to secure through diplomacy what was sought militarily. Tehran has set five preconditions for resuming negotiations with Washington to end the 75-day war, according to Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency, including the lifting of sanctions and compensation for war-related damages.

Iran is demanding reparations, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and a full end to sanctions as conditions for any deal. President Trump called Iran’s latest ceasefire proposal “garbage.”

The Iran-US diplomatic deadlock is now fully confirmed on both sides: US calls Iran’s proposal “garbage,” Iran calls US proposal “demand for surrender.” This mirrors the “unacceptable”/”unreasonable” impasse of May 10-11 — but is now linguistically more extreme on both sides. Trump’s “garbage” and Iran’s “demand for surrender” are not positions from which rapid resolution is likely.

🔴 #6 — TRUMP ARRIVES IN BEIJING — IRAN AND HORMUZ EXPECTED ON AGENDA WITH XI

[Times of Israel liveblog May 13; AP confirmed]

US President Donald Trump arrived on Air Force One at Beijing Capital International Airport in Beijing on May 13, 2026. As President Trump arrives in Beijing today, he is expected to discuss the Iran war with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Trump is the first US president to visit Beijing in years, arriving specifically at the moment when the Iran ceasefire is at its most fragile and the Lebanon-Israel talks are about to open. The diplomatic significance is extraordinary: China has leverage over Iran through their oil relationship, and Trump appears to be seeking Chinese pressure on Tehran to accept a deal. Whether Xi uses that leverage, and on what terms, may determine the trajectory of the wider war.

🔴 #7 — 6 NEW EVACUATION ORDERS: MEISS EL-JABAL, YANOUH, BURJ SHEMALI, HULA, DEBL, AABBASIYYEH (TYRE REGION)

[Al Jazeera May 13; Times of Israel confirmed]

On Wednesday morning, the Israeli military issued forced displacement orders for the residents of Meiss el-Jabal, Yanouh, Burj Shemali, Hula, Debl and Aabbasiyyeh, warning that it will soon act against these six southern Lebanese villages “forcefully.” Anyone who remains “endangers their life,” the military said, warning residents to move at least 1,000 metres away to “open areas”.

Six more communities — all in the Tyre region. This is on top of the 5 from May 12, the 9 from May 11, and the dozens issued in preceding weeks. The cumulative total of communities under active evacuation orders now covers virtually the entire area south of the Litani River and beyond.

🔴 #8 — ONE OF THREE REMAINING TYRE HOSPITALS NOW IN DISPLACEMENT ZONE

[Al Jazeera — Zeina Khodr reporting from Tyre, May 13 confirmed]

Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr, reporting from Tyre, said one of the few remaining hospitals in the area was in the displacement zone. “There are only three left in the whole district of Tyre, and there are still people who live here. At least 100,000 people still live here,” she said. “These hospitals are really a lifeline for these people, but some of them, those who are injured, don’t make it because the road is a long journey to reach these hospitals and people are still in villages further south.”

Three hospitals. 100,000 residents still in Tyre district. One of those three hospitals now in an Israeli-designated evacuation zone. The collapse of Tyre’s medical infrastructure — already at 108 emergency workers dead and 140+ attacks on ambulances and facilities — is accelerating as evacuation orders expand northward.

🔴 #9 — 108 EMERGENCY WORKERS KILLED; 140+ ATTACKS ON AMBULANCES AND MEDICAL FACILITIES — UPDATED FIGURES

[Al Jazeera May 13; Lebanon Health Ministry confirmed]

Lebanon’s Ministry of Health said on Monday that 108 emergency medical services and healthcare workers had been killed in Lebanon during the war, with more than 140 Israeli attacks recorded on ambulances and medical facilities.

108 — updated from 103 (May 11 figure). Five additional emergency workers killed in two days. 140+ attacks on ambulances and medical facilities is the most comprehensive count of medical infrastructure targeting published to date. The two Civil Defense paramedics killed at Nabatieh’s Civil Defense Center on May 12 — Hussein Jaber and Ahmad Noura — are part of this toll.

🔴 #10 — PENTAGON: IRAN WAR COSTS $29 BILLION — UP $4 BILLION IN TWO WEEKS

[Democracy Now! — May 13; CBS News confirmed]

The Pentagon’s comptroller testified on Capitol Hill Tuesday that the cost of the war with Iran had risen to around $29 billion, an increase of $4 billion from the figure provided two weeks ago. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth also refused to tell lawmakers at the hearing how much emergency funding he would request to cover the cost of the war, despite repeated questioning from both Democrats and Republicans.

$29 billion and rising at $4 billion per two-week interval. The economic cost of the US-Iran war to American taxpayers is accelerating. This figure does not include the cost to Lebanon, Iran, or Israel. It establishes the scale of the American military commitment — and the domestic political pressure it is generating, as evidenced by the War Powers Resolution vote.

🔴 #11 — SENATE FAILS IRAN WAR POWERS RESOLUTION 49-50 — SEVENTH FAILURE

[ABC News — May 13 confirmed]

The Senate did not pass an Iran War Powers Resolution introduced by Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) on Wednesday, marking the seventh time the Senate has failed to advance such a resolution in a vote of 49-50.

The seventh failed vote — by a single vote. The margin has been consistently narrow, reflecting a Senate that is nearly equally divided on the question of whether Congress should reassert its war authorization powers. The single Republican crossover vote that has consistently denied the resolution its majority has not flipped fully. But the sustained 49-vote coalition for the resolution represents a significant and growing congressional challenge to the executive’s war powers.

⚠️ #12 — IDF: “GAZA MODEL” PLANNED FOR SOUTH LEBANON — DEFENSE MINISTER KATZ

[NBC News — May 13; confirmed]

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has described plans to apply a “Gaza model” to southern Lebanon, comparing the Israeli military’s tactics to those used in parts of the Palestinian enclave that remain under Israeli control. Katz has also warned that residents of southern Lebanon would not be able to return to their homes until the safety of Israelis in northern Israel was guaranteed.

The “Gaza model” declaration from Israel’s Defense Minister is the most explicit statement of Israeli strategic intent toward south Lebanon published during the ceasefire period. Khiam mayor Abbas Awada’s assessment — that the destruction has been “systematic” and aimed at destroying “everything related to life” — aligns precisely with this declared policy.

⚠️ #13 — NORWAY REFUGEE COUNCIL: “NEARLY 600 KILLED” SINCE CEASEFIRE — HIGHER THAN OFFICIAL TALLY

[Antiwar.com — May 13; NRC statement confirmed]

The Norwegian Refugee Council issued a statement on Wednesday calling for Israel to respect the ceasefire and to allow for the safe return of refugees to their homes. Estimates have put in excess of 20 per cent of Lebanon’s entire population displaced since the war began. Even since the ceasefire was announced last month, Israel has killed in excess of 400 people in attacks — nearly 600 by NRC’s estimate.

The NRC’s “nearly 600 killed since ceasefire” significantly exceeds the Lebanese Health Ministry’s official 380+ figure. The discrepancy likely reflects different counting methodologies — but either figure is catastrophic for a nominal ceasefire. If NRC’s count is accurate, the ceasefire has been deadlier in its first 27 days than some full-scale conflicts.

⚠️ #14 — CEASEFIRE EXPIRY: MAY 17 — CORRECTION AND CLARIFICATION

[NBC News — May 13; Wikipedia Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire; all confirmed]

With the deal expiring on May 17, the US is expected to mediate a fresh round of talks between Israel and Lebanon on May 14 and 15.

CIS CORRECTION: Previous editions of this index stated the ceasefire expires approximately May 14. The correct date is May 17. The three-week extension announced by Trump on April 23 runs to May 17. The Washington talks on May 14-15 occur two days before expiry, providing a diplomatic window for any agreement reached at the talks to be formalized before the ceasefire technically lapses. This does not reduce urgency — four days to expiry is four days — but it clarifies the timeline.

🌡️ GOVERNORATE SECURITY INDEX — MAY 13, 2026

🏙️ BEIRUT

Index: 84/100 🔴🔴 | Trend: MAXIMUM — Jiyeh strikes 20km from Beirut capital; coastal highway attacked; shelter-ready posture mandatory

Beirut’s index rises sharply today from 76 to 84. The Jiyeh highway attack — three drone strikes on civilian cars 20 kilometres from the Lebanese capital — is the closest mass-casualty attack to Beirut since the ceasefire began. The coastal highway is used daily by hundreds of thousands of Lebanese. This is not a border-zone event. This is an attack on the infrastructure of greater Beirut’s connectivity.

Some Israeli strikes have hit other areas during the ceasefire. On Thursday, the Israeli military said it had killed a senior Hezbollah commander in a Beirut suburb.

Beirut residents must treat the coastal highway south of the capital as a potential strike zone. Do not use the Saida-South coastal highway (the main highway through Jiyeh, Barja, Saadiyat) without maximum caution. Shelter-ready posture is mandatory.

🏞️ MOUNT LEBANON

Index: 70/100 🟠 | Trend: Elevated — Jiyeh is in the Chouf District of Mount Lebanon; the coastal highway attack is geographically within Mount Lebanon Governorate

CRITICAL CORRECTION: Jiyeh is in the Chouf District, Mount Lebanon Governorate — not South Lebanon Governorate. Today’s coastal highway massacre occurred in Mount Lebanon. This is the first time CIS has assigned a MAXIMUM ALERT to a Mount Lebanon community since the war began.

JIYEH, BARJA, SAADIYAT: ❌ DIRECT STRIKE TODAY — DO NOT USE COASTAL HIGHWAY THROUGH THESE AREAS

🌊 NORTH LEBANON & TRIPOLI

Index: 62/100 🟡 | Trend: Stable

North Lebanon remains the primary internal refuge. No strikes in North Lebanon today.

🌲 AKKAR

Index: 62/100 🟡 | Trend: Stable

Masnaa crossing open. Airport operating. Rafic Hariri Airport remains the primary exit option.

🍇 BEQAA VALLEY

Index: 88/100 🔴🔴 | Trend: Maximum — Western Bekaa evacuation orders (Sohmor, Machghara, Qlayaa) remain active; IDF north-of-Litani operation touches Bekaa corridor

The Zawtar al-Sharqiyah operation is near the Bekaa side of the Litani. Asharq Al-Awsat analysts describe Zawtar as “a strategic node linking western Zawtar, Yohmor, and Arnoun.” If Israel manages to entrench its presence on the heights of Beaufort Castle, Yohmor and Zawtar, it would be able to place the areas of Nabatieh, Kfar Tebnit, Nabatieh al-Fawqa and Nabatieh al-Tahta under direct fire pressure. The Bekaa Valley sits immediately to the east of this strategic axis.

🕌 BAALBEK-HERMEL

Index: 83/100 🔴🔴 | Trend: Maximum

Baalbek-Hermel faces catastrophic risk if the ceasefire expires May 17 without agreement. Qassem’s call to withdraw from talks makes that expiry more, not less, likely.

🌴 SOUTH LEBANON

Index: 98/100 🔴🔴 | Status: CATASTROPHIC — 6 NEW EVACUATION ORDERS; TYRE HOSPITAL IN DISPLACEMENT ZONE; HEZBOLLAH ROCKETS FIRED; IDF 100+ STRIKES IN SUPPORT OF LITANI CROSSING; 100,000 RESIDENTS REMAINING IN TYRE DISTRICT UNDER MAXIMUM DANGER

Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr said the “conflict is only escalating.” “It is a conflict that is taking a high toll on the civilians who live in these areas,” she said. Six new evacuation orders cover Meiss el-Jabal, Yanouh, Burj Shemali, Hula, Debl and Aabbasiyyeh — all Tyre region communities. One of the three remaining Tyre district hospitals is now in an evacuation zone. 100,000 people still live in the Tyre district.

⛪ NABATIEH

Index: 97/100 🔴🔴 | Status: Maximum — Continuing strikes; Zawtar operation directly threatens Nabatieh population centres

If Israel manages to entrench its presence on the heights of Beaufort Castle, Yohmor and Zawtar, it would be able to place the areas of Nabatieh, Kfar Tebnit, Nabatieh al-Fawqa and Nabatieh al-Tahta under direct fire pressure. This is not a hypothetical — the IDF has now confirmed it achieved “operational control” of Zawtar al-Sharqiyah with armoured vehicles during the ceasefire.

📊 FULL DASHBOARD — MAY 13, 2026

🎯 CRITICAL INTELLIGENCE — MAY 13, 2026

⚠️ JIYEH: WHAT IT MEANS THAT THE COASTAL HIGHWAY IS NOW A STRIKE ZONE

The main coastal highway — Route 51, the Saida-South road — is the spine of Lebanese coastal geography. It connects Beirut to Sidon, Tyre, and the south. Hundreds of thousands of people use it daily. Three civilian cars were struck in the Jiyeh-Barja-Saadiyat corridor on Wednesday morning. Two children are dead.

This is not a military road. This is not near a declared security zone. This is the highway that Lebanese families use to visit relatives, that merchants use to transport goods, that displaced southerners use to return home.

The strike pattern mirrors Gaza’s treatment of civilian movement routes. In Gaza, Israel struck the Salah al-Din road repeatedly, effectively dividing the territory and preventing civilian movement. The Jiyeh strikes — and the similar attack on the same area last Saturday — suggest a deliberate Israeli policy of interdicting civilian movement on the coastal highway.

If this highway becomes systematically targeted, it cuts Beirut off from the south more effectively than any ground operation. It also puts every Lebanese civilian who drives south of the capital at mortal risk.

⚠️ QASSEM’S ESCALATION: FROM NON-NEGOTIATION TO WITHDRAWAL DEMAND

Three days of Qassem statements must be read as a sequence:

• May 11: Ceasefire is practically dead; 24 attacks in 24 hours
• May 12: Weapons are non-negotiable; “We will turn it into hell”
• May 13: Lebanon should withdraw from Washington talks entirely

Each day has escalated. Today’s call for withdrawal from talks is Hezbollah’s maximum political intervention against the diplomatic process. If Lebanon’s government attends tomorrow (as it has consistently signalled it will), it is making a direct defiance of Hezbollah’s stated position. That defiance has limits — Hezbollah remains the most powerful armed actor in Lebanon, and any agreement that Lebanon’s government signs without Hezbollah’s acceptance is an agreement that Hezbollah can and likely will undermine.

⚠️ THE LITANI CROSSING: WHAT “ENGINEERING FOR FUTURE CROSSINGS” MEANS

The IDF’s confirmation that it built engineering infrastructure to enable future armoured crossings of the Litani River during the ceasefire is a strategic declaration, not a tactical detail. The Litani River has been the de facto northern limit of Israel’s declared security zone. By engineering crossing points, Israel has:

1. Demonstrated capability to cross at will
2. Signalled intent to expand the security zone north of the Litani if negotiations fail
3. Placed Nabatieh, Sidon district, and all communities between the Litani and the Awali River under credible threat of future ground operations

This is the message Israel is sending to Lebanon’s Washington delegation: the alternative to a negotiated settlement is Israeli military expansion north of the Litani River.

⚠️ THE TRUMP-XI MEETING: THE ONLY LEVER THAT CAN MOVE IRAN

China buys the majority of Iran’s oil. China has been Iran’s economic lifeline through the US naval blockade. If Trump secures a Chinese commitment to reduce oil purchases from Iran or to pressure Tehran diplomatically, Iran’s negotiating position weakens significantly. If Xi refuses, the US-Iran impasse continues and the broader ceasefire remains fragile.

The Lebanon-Israel talks on May 14-15 will occur in the context of whatever signal emerges from Beijing. A positive Trump-Xi signal on Iran could stabilise the Lebanon talks. A negative or empty signal from Beijing would mean Lebanon’s delegation arrives in Washington negotiating in a vacuum.

⚠️ MAY 17 EXPIRY — THE FOUR-DAY WINDOW

Four days to expiry. One day to talks. The corrected timeline:

• May 14 (tomorrow): Washington talks Day 1 — Simon Karam leads Lebanese delegation
• May 15: Washington talks Day 2
• May 16: Any agreement must be formalised
• May 17: Ceasefire expires — if no extension, Lebanon faces immediate return to full-scale bombardment

The window is narrow but real. The ICG’s David Wood said talks “might result in another temporary extension.” Even this modest outcome requires both Israel and Lebanon to agree, requires US mediation to hold, and requires Hezbollah not to actively sabotage the process — something Qassem’s call for withdrawal makes significantly harder.

📱 EMERGENCY GUIDANCE — MAY 13, 2026

🚨 MAXIMUM EMERGENCY — COASTAL HIGHWAY ATTACKED; CEASEFIRE EXPIRY 4 DAYS; TALKS TOMORROW

ALL LEBANESE — TODAY:

The Jiyeh coastal highway attack — 20 kilometres from Beirut — is a warning that no major road in Lebanon should be treated as safe. The coastal highway has been struck twice in the past week (Saturday and today). 2 children are dead. The ceasefire expires in 4 days. Talks open tomorrow. Emergency preparedness is survival.

72-HOUR EMERGENCY KIT — RECONFIRM NOW:

• ✅ Water: 3 litres per person per day × 3 days (Deir Mimas residents had their water supply blown up on May 12)
• ✅ Non-perishable food × 3 days
• ✅ Phone charged; power bank charged
• ✅ CIS +961-3-539900 | Red Cross 1760 | Civil Defence 125
• ✅ Shelter confirmed and accessible
• ✅ Family emergency meeting point agreed

COASTAL HIGHWAY (SAIDA-SOUTH ROAD) — JIYEH/BARJA/SAADIYAT: ❌ DO NOT USE. Three drone strikes hit civilian cars on Wednesday morning. Similar strikes hit the same area last Saturday. This road must be treated as a military strike zone.

SOUTH LEBANON: ~12 killed today. 6 new evacuation orders. One of Tyre’s three remaining hospitals in evacuation zone. 100,000 residents still in Tyre district — if you are one of them, contact Red Cross 1760 immediately for support. Do not attempt to travel on the coastal highway.

MOUNT LEBANON — CHOUF DISTRICT: Jiyeh, Barja, Saadiyat are in the Chouf District of Mount Lebanon and are active strike zones. If you live or work south of Beirut toward Sidon, avoid the coastal highway entirely and use inland routes via Deir el-Qamar/Beiteddine.

TYRE DISTRICT: One of only three remaining hospitals in an evacuation zone. If you have a medical emergency in the Tyre district, call Red Cross 1760 before approaching any facility.

ALL COMMUNITIES UNDER CURRENT EVACUATION ORDERS: May 13: Meiss el-Jabal, Yanouh, Burj Shemali, Hula, Debl, Aabbasiyyeh May 12: Sohmor (Bekaa), Arzoun, Tayr Debba, Bazouriyeh, al-Haush May 11: Ar-Rihan, Jarjouaa, Kfar Reman, al-Numairiyah, Arab Salim, al-Jumayjimah, Machghara, Qlayaa, Harouf All orders remain active. If you are in any of these communities, leave now.

🚗 MAY 13 TRAVEL STATUS

🛡️ CIS SECURITY — MAY 13 MAXIMUM EMERGENCY — LEVEL 5

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 | “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

🔴🔴 LEVEL 5 MAXIMUM — COASTAL HIGHWAY ATTACKED; CEASEFIRE EXPIRY MAY 17; TALKS TOMORROW

The Jiyeh highway attack puts every Lebanese civilian who travels south of Beirut on notice: the road itself is now a potential target. CIS Level 5 protocols remain fully active. All clients in Mount Lebanon, Beirut, and south Lebanon are being directly contacted.

🗓️ MAY 17 COUNTDOWN Four days to ceasefire expiry. One day to Washington talks. CIS will monitor all developments from May 14-15 in real time and provide immediate governorate-level guidance on whatever the talks produce — extension, framework, or collapse.

🚗 COASTAL HIGHWAY MONITORING CIS is now tracking the Saida-South coastal highway (Route 51) through Jiyeh, Barja, and Saadiyat as an active interdiction zone. All clients who regularly use this road are advised to cease using it until further notice. Use inland mountain routes via the Chouf or Metn instead.

🏥 MEDICAL EMERGENCY UPDATE 108 emergency workers killed. 140+ attacks on ambulances and medical facilities. One of Tyre’s three remaining hospitals in an evacuation zone. CIS maintains an updated map of operational medical facilities in all affected areas. Call before approaching any facility south of Sidon.

📞 EMERGENCY CONTACTS — MAY 13, 2026

CIS Security 24/7: +961-3-539900 | www.cissecurity.net US Embassy Emergency: +1-202-501-4444 | BeirutACS@state.gov Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 | Civil Defence: 125 | ISF: 112 National Mental Health Lifeline: 1564 (24/7 — confidential)

⚠️ FINAL ASSESSMENT — MAY 13, 2026

War Day 75. Ceasefire Day 27. Four days to May 17 expiry. One day to Washington talks.

Two children died on a public highway 20 kilometres from Beirut today. They were in a car. The road was a road that any Lebanese person might drive on any day of the week. Three drones found three cars and killed eight people. That is what the ceasefire looks like on May 13, 2026.

Iran called the US peace proposal “a demand for surrender.” Trump called Iran’s counter-proposal “garbage.” The two men who could end this war are both in or near Beijing today — one arriving for meetings with Xi Jinping, the other governing from a country under an American naval blockade.

Hezbollah’s Naim Qassem has told Lebanon not to go to Washington tomorrow. The Lebanese government will go anyway. It will sit across from Israel’s delegation and try to negotiate a framework for peace under the precise conditions that make peace the least likely it has ever been: a ceasefire that kills dozens per day, a military that has just crossed the Litani with armoured vehicles, and a domestic opposition that demands withdrawal from the talks themselves.

Four days. The talks open tomorrow.

Lebanon will not give up. It never has.

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ | Wednesday, May 13, 2026 | WAR DAY 75 | CEASEFIRE DAY 27 Sources: Al Jazeera “At least eight killed in Israeli drone strikes on Lebanon highway” (May 13, published today — Jiyeh 8 killed incl. 2 children; Barja, Jiyeh, Saadiyat; 20km from Beirut; 6 new evacuation orders; Tyre 3 hospitals; Zeina Khodr “only escalating”; talks Thursday;

Hezbollah opposes); Arab News “Israel strikes cars on highway south of Beirut” (May 13 — Health Ministry statement confirmed; Barja/Jiyeh/Saadiyat named); Times of Israel “Israeli strikes on highway south of Beirut kill 8” (May 13 — Jiyeh confirmed; Hezbollah rockets at troops; Adraee warning text); Times of Israel liveblog May 13 (Trump arrives Beijing; AP photo; Knesset events); Antiwar.com “Israel Attacks Lebanon’s Main Coastal Highway, Killing 12 Including Two Children” (May 13 — ~12 total;

Qassem calls on Lebanon to withdraw from talks; NRC statement 400-600 killed since ceasefire; 20% displaced); Democracy Now! “Headlines for May 13, 2026” (8 killed incl. 2 children; 13 killed Tuesday; 108 medical workers; 140+ facility attacks; talks Thursday; Pentagon $29 billion; Iran “garbage” Trump; Trump-Xi Tehran agenda); CBS News live updates “Iran says it’s ready to repel” (May 13 — Iran 5 preconditions; “demand for surrender”; US 14-point proposal);

ABC News “Iran live updates” (May 13 — Senate War Powers 49-50 seventh failure; Araghchi “overbearing approach”); NBC News “Amid ceasefire, Israeli forces ramp up destruction” (May 13 — satellite imagery; Katz Gaza model; Ozcelik RUSI “in name”; Khiam mayor “destroy everything related to life”; May 17 expiry confirmed); Times of Israel “IDF says it carried out weeklong raid on Hezbollah sites beyond Litani” (May 12-13 — Golani Recon; Zawtar al-Sharqiyah; dozens killed; armoured vehicles; engineering for future crossings); i24NEWS “IDF crosses Litani River” (Zawtar al-Sharqiyah; 8 soldiers lightly wounded; Oketz dog wounded; forces crossed back); Asharq Al-Awsat “Israel Crosses Litani by Fire” (strategic analysis; Zawtar node; Nabatieh fire control);

Israel Policy Forum “What’s at Stake in Israel-Lebanon Negotiations” (May 12 — framework analysis); PressTV (12 total killed); Wikipedia 2026 Lebanon War (updated 14 hours ago); Wikipedia Timeline (updated 7 hours ago); Lebanon LiveUAMap May 13 (Israeli Channel 12 armoured crossing confirmation). CEASEFIRE EXPIRY CORRECTION: May 17 confirmed (NBC News, Wikipedia), not May 14 as stated in prior editions. Three-week extension announced April 23 expires May 17. All Lebanon casualty figures from Lebanese Ministry of Public Health unless otherwise noted. All IDF data from IDF official statements or confirmed Israeli media. Index compiled: Wednesday, May 13, 2026 — 16:00 Beirut time.