CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – Feb 26 2026

Thursday, February 26, 2026 | Ramadan Day 9

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL — MAXIMUM ALERT OVERALL INDEX: 92/100 TREND: ⬆️⬆️ SHARPLY ESCALATING HEADLINE: US–IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS CONCLUDE IN GENEVA TODAY WITH NO DEAL — WAR RISK REMAINS ELEVATED; LEBANESE ARMY FIRES BACK AT ISRAEL AT SARDA; PARIS CONFERENCE MARCH 5 CONFIRMED; RIYAQ KILLS 14 IN WORST SINGLE STRIKE IN WEEKS; ELECTION POSTPONEMENT DEBATE ERUPTS; BEKAA RAIDS CONTINUE TODAY

🚨 BREAKING DEVELOPMENTS — THURSDAY FEBRUARY 26, 2026

🔴 BREAKING #1 — US–IRAN NUCLEAR TALKS CONCLUDE IN GENEVA TODAY: NO DEAL REACHED — WAR RISK PERSISTS

[AP via CBC, Washington Post, Al Jazeera, NBC News — Published today, February 26]

The third round of indirect US–Iran nuclear negotiations concluded in Geneva this Thursday afternoon with no deal announced. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the talks as the “longest, most serious” round yet and said technical talks will continue in Vienna on Monday. Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, the mediator, cited “significant progress in the negotiation” but offered no specifics. US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner participated on the American side.

What this means for Lebanon: The absence of a deal means the massive US military buildup in the Middle East — two aircraft carrier strike groups (USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald R. Ford), 50+ advanced fighter jets including F-35s and F-22s, and reinforced THAAD/Patriot batteries — remains in place. As Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Rajji confirmed on February 24: Israel has warned Beirut it would strike Lebanon’s civilian infrastructure, including Beirut International Airport, if Hezbollah joins any US–Iran conflict. The US State Department ordered non-emergency diplomatic personnel and families to leave the Beirut Embassy earlier this week. Australia has ordered diplomats’ families to leave both Israel and Lebanon.

President Trump stated in his State of the Union address this week that Iran was working to develop missiles that could “soon” reach the US and that it was trying to restart its nuclear program. Trump had previously given Iran a “10-day to two-week deadline” to reach a deal. That clock is running. If Vienna technical talks fail, military options come back to the fore immediately.

🔴 BREAKING #2 — LEBANESE ARMY FIRES BACK AT ISRAEL IN SARDA — RARE DIRECT CONFRONTATION

[Al Jazeera, Al-Monitor, Times of Israel, L’Orient Today — Feb 24–26]

In a highly significant development, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) on Tuesday February 24 issued orders to fire back at Israeli forces after Israeli troops opened fire on Lebanese soldiers establishing a new observation post near Sarda, south of Khiam in the Marjayoun district.

The Lebanese Army statement: “The army command issued orders to reinforce the post, remain there, and return fire at the sources of fire.” The Israeli military claimed it had spotted Lebanese soldiers setting up the post without prior coordination and fired warning shots. The LAF refused to withdraw.

On Wednesday February 25, Lebanese soldiers then used barbed wire to surround an earth embankment erected on Lebanese territory to obstruct an Israeli incursion — after an Israeli troop and tank had advanced into Lebanese territory before leaving. On Thursday today, the Lebanese Army has reinforced and fortified its position at Sarda, south of Khiam.

This is one of the most significant escalatory incidents since the November 2024 ceasefire. The Lebanese Armed Forces directly and publicly ordered its soldiers to return Israeli fire — a precedent. The incident is being followed up by the US-led Ceasefire Mechanism Committee and UNIFIL.

L’Orient Today confirmed today: The Lebanese army has redeployed to 165 positions in south Lebanon following the ceasefire, as documented by UNIFIL. The Sarda confrontation demonstrates that this deployment is now resulting in direct friction with Israeli forces.

🔴 BREAKING #3 — ANSAR AND AL-ZARARIYEH RAIDS NORTH OF LITANI — TODAY FEBRUARY 26

[LiveUAMap Lebanon — Published today, February 26]

Israeli forces carried out two raids today targeting the area between Ansar and Al-Zarariyeh, north of the Litani River, with columns of smoke and flames rising. This is a confirmed strike today in the Phase 2 disarmament corridor, in an area where the Lebanese Army is attempting to extend state authority under international supervision. Israeli strikes in the Ansar-Zarariyeh corridor have been documented previously; today’s strikes continue the pattern.

Additionally, the LiveUAMap confirmed a German Navy frigate Nordrhein-Westfalen (F223) appeared on AIS in the Eastern Mediterranean off the coast of Lebanon/Cyprus today — the latest European naval asset positioned in the region during the escalating Iran crisis.

🔴 BREAKING #4 — RIYAQ MASSACRE: WORST SINGLE STRIKE IN WEEKS — 14 KILLED FEBRUARY 20

[FDD Long War Journal, Al Jazeera, GlobalSecurity, AFP — February 20–23]

The most lethal Israeli strike since the ceasefire in recent memory occurred on Friday February 20 in Riyaq, Baalbek-Hermel Governorate. Israeli warplanes conducted three strikes on Mahallet al-Shaara in the Baalbek District, destroying a building on the Riyaq-Baalbek Highway near a branch of Al Qard Al Hassan — Hezbollah’s microfinance institution.

Casualties confirmed: 10 Hezbollah operatives killed; two Hamas operatives killed in a separate simultaneous strike on Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp; one Syrian national killed; one Ethiopian national killed; three children wounded; 24 unidentified individuals wounded. Total dead from February 20 alone: 14 people.

Some reports suggest Israel destroyed Hezbollah long-range missiles equipped with warheads and ready for deployment — though the IDF did not confirm this. IDF sources stated the Riyaq strikes were meant to “degrade Hezbollah’s rocket and missile capabilities in case the group sought to resume hostilities as tensions between Iran and the United States remain high.”

The IDF’s OC Northern Command chief Maj. Gen. Rafi Milo had ordered a more aggressive posture against Hezbollah mid-week February 16–22, specifically emphasizing targeted killings, tunnel shaft and weapons depot strikes, and expanded freedom of action. The February 20 Riyaq strike was the direct consequence of that order.

The Riyaq strikes triggered public Hezbollah vows of “resistance.” Hezbollah held military funerals in Nabi Sheet for its operatives, further inflaming tensions.

🔴 BREAKING #5 — LEBANESE ARMY NEEDS $1.2 BILLION ANNUALLY — CAIRO PREPARATORY MEETING OUTCOME (FEBRUARY 24)

[TheIntelDrop, Arab News, Egypt SIS, L’Orient Today — February 24–25]

The critical preparatory meeting for the March 5 Paris Conference was held in Cairo on February 24 with Army Commander Gen. Haykal, ISF Director-General Raed Abdallah, French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, Qatari Minister Mohammed al-Khulaifi, Saudi Prince Yazid bin Farhan, senior US officials, and Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty.

Most significant outcome: Gen. Haykal presented formal figures: the Lebanese Army requires approximately $1.2 billion annually — totalling approximately $6 billion over five years — to fulfil its full disarmament and sovereignty mandate. The ISF requires a further $100 million in the first phase. This is the first time the army’s financial requirements have been formally quantified in the international arena.

Haykal’s presentation was described as “positive” by participants. Egypt praised the army’s Phase 1 completion and called for intensified international support for remaining phases. A “clear consensus on supporting Lebanon” emerged — with the actual figures to be officially announced at the Paris Conference on March 5.

The US Ambassador Michel Issa was notably absent from the Cairo meeting in person — described as unable to leave the US Embassy due to the security situation. He was represented by a delegate. This reflects the extraordinary security posture the US Embassy is maintaining in Beirut given the Iran escalation risk.

Cairo side-meeting: Egyptian FM Abdelatty met French envoy Le Drian and stressed that “there is no path to restoring stability except by obliging Israel to immediately halt its aggression and fully withdraw from occupied Lebanese territories” — a strong Egyptian position that frames Israeli withdrawal as a precondition for stability.

🔴 BREAKING #6 — PARIS CONFERENCE MARCH 5 CONFIRMED — MACRON-SALAM MEETING THIS WEEK

[The National, L’Orient Today, Naharnet — confirmed February 26]

The international conference in support of the Lebanese Armed Forces and Internal Security Forces is confirmed for March 5, 2026 in Paris. Lebanese PM Nawaf Salam has been confirmed to meet French President Macron in Paris this week ahead of the conference. Macron’s invitation confirmed Aoun as co-chair.

The Paris Conference is the most significant international gathering for Lebanon since the 2006 Stockholm Conference and the 2024 emergency donor conferences. It is expected to formally announce pledges approaching the $6 billion figure presented in Cairo — transformational funding for the Lebanese Army.

President Aoun met French National Assembly member Amélie Lakrafi this week to coordinate Lebanese-French positions. The Quintet ambassadors — US, France, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar — are fully engaged.

Note on Saudi-US tone: Reports suggest a “coolness” in the Saudi-American response relative to French-Egyptian enthusiasm at Cairo. This may reflect US-Saudi concerns about Hezbollah’s intransigence and whether army funding alone can achieve disarmament.

🔴 BREAKING #7 — ELECTION POSTPONEMENT CRISIS: BERRI DEFIES QUINTET, SAYS NO DELAY

[Naharnet, Tehran Times, Wikipedia — February 23–26]

Lebanon’s most explosive domestic political debate of the week: foreign ambassadors including the US have reportedly asked Speaker Berri to postpone the May 10 elections by 1–2 years, citing US–Iran tensions, disarmament complexity, and regional instability as justifications.

Berri’s response — publicly defiant: “I told him [US Ambassador Issa] no, and I also informed the other ambassadors of the Quintet that I do not support a technical postponement of the elections or an extension of the parliament.” Berri stated he personally registered as a candidate and instructed Amal Movement candidates to file — sending a deliberate political message.

Hezbollah alignment: Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc head Mohammad Raad visited Berri and confirmed their positions are “completely identical.” Hezbollah has re-nominated all its current MPs and is planning a full electoral slate. For Hezbollah and Amal, the elections are a vehicle to reassert popular legitimacy amid military and financial weakening.

The postponement argument: Foreign officials cite the sensitive “weapons file,” ongoing disarmament, US-Iran negotiations, and fear of destabilising electoral competition as justifications. Postponement could require constitutional revision (Article 22) or parliamentary extension — both politically explosive.

Tehran Times analysis (published today February 26): The debate “exposes Lebanon’s structural vulnerability: constitutional timelines remain entangled in regional and international calculations.”

The decision on whether Lebanon holds elections in 73 days remains contested between its constitutional calendar, its own political forces, and the preferences of its foreign partners.

🔴 BREAKING #8 — AIN AL-HILWEH REFUGEE CAMP STRUCK FEBRUARY 20 — HAMAS OPERATIVES KILLED

[FDD Long War Journal, Al Jazeera — February 20–23]

On February 20, Israel carried out a strike on Ain al-Hilweh, Lebanon’s largest Palestinian refugee camp located on the outskirts of Sidon, killing two people identified by the IDF as Hamas operatives. This is the first confirmed Israeli strike inside a Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon during the post-ceasefire period. The strike adds a new and highly sensitive dimension to Israel’s targeting doctrine in Lebanon — the refugee camps, home to hundreds of thousands of Palestinians with Lebanese IDs, had not previously been targeted.

The Lebanese government condemned the strike; PM Salam’s recent visits to Sidon and Kafr Kila reflect ongoing governmental efforts to demonstrate presence in the south.

🔴 BREAKING #9 — CABINET SESSION TODAY: 29-ITEM AGENDA INCLUDING REVENUE AND ELECTIONS LAW

[TheIntelDrop, Naharnet — February 25–26]

The Lebanese cabinet convened today, Thursday February 26, with a 29-item agenda including continuing discussion on activating collection of outstanding revenues, addressing customs and tax evasion, following up on forensic audit processes, and — crucially — a Ministry of Information request for a draft law enabling Télé Liban to collect fees for media appearances during election campaigns. The inclusion of election-related legislation in today’s cabinet session confirms that the government, at least formally, is proceeding with May 10 election preparations despite foreign pressure for postponement.

🔴 BREAKING #10 — HEZBOLLAH REJECTED DISARMAMENT; IRGC OFFICERS IN LEBANON; INTERNAL TENSIONS GROWING

[Times of Israel, Al Arabiya, Meir Amit Intelligence Center — February 20–26]

Multiple intelligence assessments this week describe a complex Hezbollah internal picture:

IRGC in Lebanon: Al Arabiya, quoting sources close to Hezbollah, reported that Iran’s IRGC has “effectively taken charge of Hezbollah in anticipation of a war with the US and Israel,” with IRGC officers recently arrived from Iran tasked with rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities and directing its war planning.

Battle preparations: Hezbollah is reportedly drawing up battle plans for an Israeli attack and bracing for potential conflict. Coordination meetings of the “resistance axis” under Qods Force supervision were held to formulate a regional response framework to any US attack on Iran.

Internal turmoil: Intelligence assessments (Meir Amit Center, January 26–February 2) describe “growing internal turmoil within Hezbollah and its social base because of the heavy costs of destruction, displacement, loss of property and economic collapse with no horizon of reconstruction or compensation.”

Disarmament position unchanged: Qassem’s February 16 annual speech confirmed total rejection of disarmament north of the Litani unless Israel withdraws. His exact words: “It is a far-fetched dream that Hezbollah would hand over its weapons.” Lebanese PM Salam’s response in Nida al-Watan: “We hope we will not be dragged into another adventure.”

🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE SECURITY INDEX — FEBRUARY 26, 2026

🏙️ BEIRUT — Index: 85/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️ Escalating

Status: Maximum Political Pressure — War Risk Dominant

Beirut today faces its most complex simultaneous crisis set since the November 2024 ceasefire. The US–Iran Geneva talks concluding with no deal — announced this afternoon — keeps the war risk alive and the US military buildup in place. The US Embassy is in reduced-operations mode with non-essential staff evacuated. Foreign pressure to postpone elections is meeting determined Lebanese resistance led by Berri.

The Paris Conference (March 5) represents the most significant diplomatic and financial opportunity for Lebanon in years. PM Salam’s Paris visit this week is central preparation. Army needs of $6 billion over five years — formally stated for the first time at Cairo — now await pledging at Paris.

The cabinet’s 29-item agenda today including election-related legislation confirms the government is proceeding with constitutional timelines. The election postponement demand, if pressed harder, would require a cabinet crisis that could unwind the fragile Salam-Aoun governing framework.

The Lebanon FM’s Geneva statement (February 24) was without precedent in its directness: Israel has warned Lebanon that Beirut Airport is a target if Hezbollah responds to any US–Iran military action. The population of Beirut must now plan around this possibility.

Key factors today: Geneva no-deal prolongs war risk; Lebanese Army fires at Israel at Sarda; cabinet session with election law item; Paris conference last-minute preparations.

🏞️ MOUNT LEBANON — Index: 80/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

Status: Economic Strain; Iran War Risk Increases National Threat Level

Mount Lebanon continues to absorb displaced populations and manage Ramadan economic pressures (Day 9). The Sarda confrontation and Ansar-Zarariyeh strikes today, combined with the no-deal outcome in Geneva, elevates the threat environment nationally — including for Mount Lebanon, which hosts critical infrastructure, key political figures, and significant Hezbollah-affiliated communities in its southern suburbs.

Fuel protest disruptions from earlier in Ramadan have moderated but economic hardship persists. The Paris Conference pledges, if successful on March 5, could inject new momentum into national stabilisation — relevant to this governorate’s commercial sector.

Key factor: Iran war risk makes all Lebanese governorates vulnerable; displaced family support remains inadequate.

🌊 NORTH LEBANON & TRIPOLI — Index: 80/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

Status: Economic Distress; Syria Border Sensitivity

Tripoli remains economically devastated. The Syria border remains a sensitivity given the former Assad figures controversy and Lebanon-Syria normalisation complexity. Lebanese Army border operations continue at heightened tempo. Ramadan Day 9 household expenses are straining already-depleted budgets.

Election campaign activity is beginning to intensify in the north — Tripoli constituencies are competitive and strategically significant for anti-Hezbollah reform blocs.

Key factor: Syria border sensitivity; economic hardship; electoral campaign dynamics emerging ahead of May 10.

🌲 AKKAR — Index: 81/100 🔴 | Trend: Elevated

Status: Border Operations; Economic Vulnerability

Akkar’s cross-border commercial lifelines remain severed after January 22 Israeli strikes on four Syria-Lebanon border crossings. Economic conditions remain acute. Lebanese Army border operations continue. The Iran war risk creates a new threat dimension — any Hezbollah re-mobilisation would route through Akkar-adjacent corridors.

Key factor: Severed border crossings; fuel crisis impact; Iran-linked escalation risk via Syria border corridors.

🍇 BEQAA VALLEY — Index: 93/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️⬆️ HIGHEST NON-SOUTH RISK IN COUNTRY

Status: CRITICAL — Active Strike Zone; Riyaq Aftermath; Today’s Ansar-Zarariyeh Raids; Iran War Directly Threatened Here

The Bekaa Valley is today’s single highest-risk non-southern governorate.

February 20 Riyaq Massacre: The killing of 14 people in a single strike on the Riyaq-Baalbek Highway remains the defining event of this week. The IDF directly stated it was targeting Hezbollah’s “rocket and missile capabilities in case the group sought to resume hostilities” over Iran. This transforms the Bekaa from a post-ceasefire enforcement zone into a pre-conflict targeting zone.

Today’s raids: The confirmed Ansar-Zarariyeh strikes today (north of Litani, south of Sidon) extend Israeli operations into the Phase 2 corridor adjacent to the Bekaa’s western approach.

Iran war contingency: The Bekaa is Hezbollah’s strategic heartland and the primary Iranian weapons transfer corridor. If Iran is struck, the Bekaa becomes the first operational theatre for Hezbollah re-mobilisation and Israeli pre-emptive strikes. The IDF Northern Command’s more aggressive posture (ordered mid-February) is specifically calibrated for this scenario.

Chemical contamination: Glyphosate herbicide spraying on agricultural land near the Blue Line continues to threaten farming livelihoods throughout the Bekaa’s southern zone. The OHCHR’s documented concerns remain unresolved.

Ain al-Hilweh (Sidon-adjacent): The February 20 Hamas strike in the refugee camp directly adjacent to the Sidon District affects the valley’s western security perimeter.

Key factors today: Ansar-Zarariyeh strikes; Riyaq massacre aftermath; Iran war risk makes Bekaa primary escalation theatre; Hezbollah Phase 2 rejection most acute here.

🕌 BAALBEK-HERMEL — Index: 94/100 🔴 | Trend: ⬆️⬆️ CRITICAL MAXIMUM

Status: HIGHEST RISK GOVERNORATE IN LEBANON TODAY

Baalbek-Hermel has surpassed even South Lebanon in terms of strategic escalation risk today.

The Riyaq strike zone: The February 20 attack hit Mahallet al-Shaara in the Baalbek District — the core of this governorate. Ten Hezbollah operatives killed, a building near Al Qard Al Hassan destroyed, three children wounded, 24 injured. IDF explicitly linked it to Hezbollah missile preparation for a potential Iran conflict.

Strategic logic: Baalbek-Hermel is Hezbollah’s primary strategic depth, missile storage and launch preparation zone, and the main Iran-to-Lebanon operational corridor. In any US-Iran conflict scenario, this governorate is Target #1 for Israeli pre-emptive operations.

IRGC presence confirmed: Intelligence reports describe IRGC officers arriving in Lebanon and operating in this region to rebuild Hezbollah capabilities and direct war planning. This makes Baalbek-Hermel a priority Israeli targeting zone under its newly declared more-aggressive posture.

Phase 2 impossibility: The Lebanese Army’s Phase 2 disarmament plan formally notionally encompasses the Litani-to-Awali corridor — but any attempt to enforce disarmament in Baalbek-Hermel proper remains far-future. Hezbollah’s rejection is absolute here.

Ramadan Day 9: Holy month observances are severely disrupted by active Israeli operations, community trauma from the Riyaq killings, and the existential uncertainty of potential Iranian-conflict escalation.

Key factor today: Iran war risk makes this Lebanon’s highest-risk governorate; February 20 Riyaq massacre established new kinetic precedent; IDF aggressive posture confirmed.

🏛️ KESERWAN-JBEIL — Index: 75/100 🔴 | Trend: Stable-Elevated

Status: Economic Pressure; Iran War National Spillover Risk

Keserwan-Jbeil is the least directly affected by current kinetic threats but the Iran war risk raises the national threat environment. Ramadan Day 9 commercial activity is reduced. Tourism and business investment remain suppressed by the broader security environment.

Election campaign preparations are intensifying in this politically competitive governorate as the May 10 date — so far confirmed — approaches.

Key factor: National Iran war risk elevates all Lebanese governorates; economic pressures during Ramadan; electoral campaign beginning.

🌴 SOUTH LEBANON — Index: 93/100 🔴 | Trend: Critical-Active

Status: Active Confrontation; Lebanese Army Fires Back; Phase 2 Under Fire

South Lebanon remains a sustained active conflict zone with a new and unprecedented element this week: the Lebanese Army’s direct return of fire against Israeli forces at Sarda.

Sarda Confrontation (Feb 24–26): Lebanese soldiers establishing an observation post near Sarda were fired upon by Israeli forces, with a drone issuing expulsion threats. The army refused to withdraw, reinforced the position, and ordered return fire. On Wednesday, Lebanese soldiers used barbed wire to obstruct Israeli ground intrusion. Today the Lebanese Army has fortified and maintained the Sarda position. This is a direct Israeli-Lebanese Army confrontation — not Hezbollah — and is unprecedented in its public, sustained character.

165 LAF positions confirmed: UNIFIL today confirmed the Lebanese Army has redeployed to 165 positions in south Lebanon — but as the Sarda incident demonstrates, this deployment is generating direct friction with Israeli forces.

Ansar-Zarariyeh (today): Confirmed raids north of the Litani today in the Sidon District continue Israeli operations in the Phase 2 zone.

Ain al-Hilweh (February 20): First post-ceasefire Israeli strike inside a Palestinian refugee camp — two Hamas operatives killed, camp population alarmed.

Five occupied positions: Israel continues to occupy five strategic hilltop positions inside Lebanese territory. These serve as launch points for ground incursions and the Sarda-type confrontations.

FDD Feb 16-22 chronology (verified): Strikes, detonations, quadcopter stun grenades, and artillery targeting across Tebna, Hanine, Ayta Ash Shaab, Yaroun, Khiam, Labbouneh, Maaroub, Marwahin, Shihine, and Ain al-Hilweh — 25 Lebanese locales over the single week.

Israel’s explicit warning via Lebanon FM Rajji (February 24): Israel has warned that if Hezbollah joins a US-Iran war, Israel will strike Lebanon “very hard” — including civilian infrastructure and Beirut Airport. This warning is directly relevant to south Lebanon which would absorb the first wave of any such escalation.

Key factors today: Lebanese Army fires at Israel at Sarda; 165 LAF positions confirmed; Ansar-Zarariyeh raids today; Phase 2 under active fire; five occupied Israeli positions unchanged.

⛪ NABATIEH — Index: 92/100 🔴 | Trend: Critical-Active

Status: Continued Multi-Front Operations; Systematic Displacement Ongoing

Nabatieh Governorate continues to be the most intensively targeted district for Israeli ground operations, detonations, artillery, and quadcopter activity.

FDD Feb 16-22 documented (Nabatieh only): Artillery strikes on Aitaroun (direct Merkava tank hit on a house); stun grenades and detonations in Ayta Ash Shaab; ground incursions and house demolitions in Khiam; artillery targeting Marjayoun Valley toward Khiam; machine-gun fire toward Yaroun; artillery in Beit Lif; five shells in Marjayoun Valley.

Sarda confrontation (Marjayoun district): The Lebanese Army-Israel confrontation at Sarda (Feb 24-26) is in Nabatieh’s Marjayoun District — the most sensitive flashpoint in the governorate.

Ayta Ash Shaab: 52 residents remain in a village of 15,000. The mayor has formally characterised the stun grenade drops, incursions, glyphosate spraying, and house demolitions as “a strategy to pressure residents and force gradual displacement.” This is documented systematic demographic displacement.

Feb 9 tragedy (documented): The killing of Lebanese Army officer Warrant Officer-level and his three-year-old son in a single Israeli strike on February 9 remains the most condemned incident of the post-ceasefire period — a Lebanese military officer and his infant child killed by Israeli fire while Lebanon implements Phase 1 disarmament.

Key factors today: Lebanese Army-Israel Sarda confrontation in Marjayoun district; continued systematic displacement operations; multi-method Israeli operations (artillery, tank, quadcopter, ground incursions) across all Nabatieh districts.

🎯 CRITICAL SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF — FEBRUARY 26, 2026

🔥 THREAT TIERING — TODAY

TIER 1 — ACTIVE KINETIC / TODAY:

1. Ansar–Al-Zarariyeh, Sidon District — Confirmed raids today, north of Litani
2. Sarda, Marjayoun District — Lebanese Army vs. Israeli forces active confrontation; reinforced today
3. Riyaq-Baalbek corridor (Baalbek-Hermel) — Feb 20 strike aftermath; IDF aggressive posture ongoing
4. All Blue Line territory — Glyphosate contamination zone; ongoing quadcopter/artillery activity
5. Ayta Ash Shaab — Systematic displacement; ongoing stun grenades and detonations

TIER 2 — STRATEGIC ESCALATION TRIGGERS: 6. US–Iran War Risk — Geneva no-deal today; war risk PERSISTS; Vienna technical talks Monday; Trump deadline clock running 7. Beirut Airport — Explicitly named by Israel as target if Hezbollah joins Iran conflict; US Embassy reduced operations 8. Baalbek-Hermel/Bekaa — Primary Hezbollah-IRGC operational zone; Iran pre-conflict targeting logic applies here NOW 9. Phase 2 Disarmament Flashpoints — Lebanese Army operating in face of Hezbollah rejection; Sarda incident demonstrates collision risk 10. Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp — New targeting precedent; Palestinian camp population on alert

TIER 3 — POLITICAL FLASHPOINTS (NEXT 30 DAYS): 11. Paris Conference (March 5) — $6 billion LAF pledge expected; diplomatic success critical for Lebanese Army momentum 12. Elections (May 10 — 73 days) — Foreign pressure for postponement vs. Berri/Hezbollah insistence on proceeding; constitutional crisis potential 13. US-Iran Vienna talks (Monday) — Success or failure determines war/peace trajectory for Lebanon 14. UNIFIL (Dec 31 2026) — 308 days to mandate expiry; no replacement force confirmed

⚠️ SPECIAL ASSESSMENT: US-IRAN WAR RISK AND LEBANON

Status as of today, February 26: ELEVATED — WATCH-LEVEL MAXIMUM

Today’s Geneva talks concluded without a deal. Iran’s FM cited “progress” and scheduled Vienna technical talks for Monday. The Omani mediator used positive language. However:

• Trump’s State of the Union declared Iran’s nuclear threat “imminent” and set an implicit ultimatum
• The US military has assembled its largest regional fleet in decades — two carrier groups, 50+ advanced jets
• Trump’s previously stated “10-14 day deadline” was issued on approximately February 20 — it is expiring this weekend
• Iran’s Khamenei has publicly rejected Trump’s terms; Iran’s Security Commission threatened to drag “all regional countries into war”
• Britain has reportedly declined to allow US use of its bases for Iran strikes (Diego Garcia/RAF Fairford) — a strategic constraint on US options
• IRGC officers are in Lebanon directing Hezbollah war preparations

For Lebanon: The chain reaction feared by Lebanese officials is explicit — US strike on Iran → Hezbollah retaliatory strike on Israel → massive Israeli response against Lebanon including civilian infrastructure. The Lebanese FM has made this public. The US Embassy has evacuated non-essential staff. Australia has done the same. The Lebanese government has directly appealed to Hezbollah not to join.

CIS Security assessment: Probability of full-scale US-Iran military exchange in the next 7 days: elevated but not certain. Vienna technical talks Monday represent the last diplomatic runway. If those fail, the situation will become critical by mid-March. Lebanon should prepare for both scenarios.

📊 LEBANON STATUS DASHBOARD — FEBRUARY 26, 2026

📱 SECURITY GUIDANCE — THURSDAY FEBRUARY 26, 2026

🏠 FOR RESIDENTS AND FAMILIES — IMMEDIATE GUIDANCE:

🚨 EMERGENCY PLANNING — ALL RESIDENTS: Given the US-Iran Geneva talks producing no deal today and Trump’s deadline clock running, every Lebanese household should review its emergency plan today. This means:

• Identifying shelter locations within your building or immediate area
• Stocking 72-hour emergency supplies (water, food, medication, documents)
• Having evacuation routes identified if you are in high-risk zones (south Lebanon, Nabatieh, Baalbek-Hermel, Bekaa, Beirut southern suburbs)
• Identifying family communication protocols if networks are disrupted

SOUTH LEBANON AND NABATIEH: Do not travel. Active Lebanese Army-Israeli confrontation ongoing at Sarda. Israeli strikes continuing (Ansar-Zarariyeh today). Glyphosate contamination zones north of Blue Line remain a health hazard. Five Israeli-occupied positions serve as incursion launch points. Ayta Ash Shaab, Yaroun, Khiam, Aitaroun: avoid entirely.

BAALBEK-HERMEL AND BEKAA: Highest non-southern risk today. Riyaq-Baalbek Highway was struck on February 20 killing 14 people. IDF has explicitly stated it is targeting Hezbollah missile infrastructure in the Bekaa in preparation for Iran-conflict contingencies. Non-essential travel to Baalbek-Hermel should be suspended. In the Bekaa Valley: avoid the Riyaq area, the Baalbek-Nabi Sheet corridor, and the Syrian border zone (Masna/Majdal Anjar area).

BEIRUT: Monitor Beirut Airport status closely. Israel has explicitly warned it is a target if Hezbollah joins any Iran conflict. The US Embassy and Australian government have both ordered family evacuations — civilians should treat this as a serious signal. Avoid Beirut southern suburbs. Have an interior shelter plan for your residence or office.

SIDON AND PHASE 2 CORRIDOR: Ansar-Zarariyeh raids confirmed today. Ain al-Hilweh camp struck February 20. The Sidon District is Phase 2 territory under simultaneous disarmament operations and Israeli strikes — a contradictory and dangerous environment.

🏢 FOR BUSINESSES:

• Immediate business continuity review is strongly advised for all operations in south Lebanon, Nabatieh, Bekaa, Baalbek-Hermel, and Beirut-adjacent zones given the Iran war risk
• Supply chain exposure in strike-active areas (Riyaq corridor, Sidon District, south Lebanon) must be mitigated now
• Paris Conference pledges (March 5) — monitor outcome for international investment signals; potentially transformational for LAF and Lebanese stability
• Airport contingency planning: if Beirut International Airport is targeted, all air cargo, passenger, and logistics operations requiring air access are disrupted. Plan alternate routing now
• Election-related uncertainty (postponement vs. proceed) creates political risk for any medium-term planning

🚗 TRAVEL ADVISORY:

🛡️ CIS SECURITY — RAMADAN PERIOD / CRITICAL ESCALATION SERVICES

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 — “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional” Lebanon’s Most Reviewed Security Company | 35+ Years Experience

CRISIS-LEVEL SERVICES — FEBRUARY 26, 2026:

Iran War Contingency Planning Emergency scenario planning for US-Iran military exchange; evacuation route preparation for all Lebanese governorates; shelter-in-place protocols for residential and commercial facilities; family emergency communication systems; business continuity for airport-dependent operations

Phase 2 Disarmament Zone Security Real-time monitoring of Lebanese Army operations north of Litani; Hezbollah friction zone mapping; Sarda-type confrontation early warning; Sidon corridor assessment

Israeli Operations Tracking Today’s Ansar-Zarariyeh raids in real time; Sarda confrontation updates; Riyaq corridor monitoring; five occupied points activity tracking; quadcopter/drone/artillery early warning for south Lebanon and Nabatieh

Paris Conference Intelligence (March 5) Pre-conference diplomatic movement monitoring; $6 billion pledge announcement impact assessment; post-conference Lebanese Army capability enhancement timeline

Ramadan Community Security (Day 9) Professional protection for iftar gatherings in elevated-risk zones; mosque security in south Lebanon and Bekaa; family security consulting for displaced households

Election Security Assessment Postponement-vs-proceed political risk monitoring; campaign event security; May 10 electoral operations security planning

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Serving all Lebanese governorates. Maintaining full operational capacity throughout the Ramadan period and regional crisis escalation.

⚠️ CRITICAL OPERATIONAL NOTICE — FEBRUARY 26, 2026

🚨 US-IRAN GENEVA TALKS: NO DEAL TODAY. Vienna technical talks scheduled Monday. Trump deadline clock running. Lebanon’s Foreign Minister has publicly warned of Israeli strikes on Beirut Airport if Hezbollah enters any Iran conflict. The US Embassy has evacuated non-essential staff. This is the single highest strategic risk factor for all Lebanese security planning.

🔴 LEBANESE ARMY FIRES AT ISRAEL AT SARDA. First sustained, public, confirmed Lebanese Army return of fire at Israeli forces since the ceasefire. Situation remains active and fluid in Marjayoun district.

🔴 RIYAQ MASSACRE AFTERMATH. 14 killed in a single Israeli strike on February 20. IDF OC Northern Command has ordered an explicitly more aggressive posture. This posture remains in effect.

🔴 TODAY’S CONFIRMED STRIKES. Ansar-Al-Zarariyeh raids north of Litani confirmed today.

📅 PARIS CONFERENCE MARCH 5 — 7 DAYS AWAY. $6 billion LAF funding request formally presented at Cairo. Pledges to be announced in Paris. Transformational if successful.

📅 ELECTIONS MAY 10 — 73 DAYS AWAY. Foreign pressure for postponement vs. constitutional calendar. Berri publicly refuses delay. Hezbollah plans full electoral slate. Decision pending.

CIS Security has activated its enhanced operational monitoring posture for all Lebanese governorates. All clients should ensure their security plans are current and that emergency protocols have been reviewed.

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ — Thursday, February 26, 2026 | Ramadan Day 9 Compiled from verified sources published today and this week: AP (via CBC, Washington Times), Washington Post, Al Jazeera (live blog, multiple stories), NBC News, NPR, Al-Monitor, Times of Israel, L’Orient Today, Naharnet, FDD’s Long War Journal (Feb 16–22 chronology), Arab News, Asharq Al-Awsat, Tehran Times, TheIntelDrop, WARYATV, AFP, Egypt State Information Service, LiveUAMap Lebanon, Wikipedia (2025-2026 Iran-US Negotiations; 2026 Lebanese Elections), Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, Lebanese Army official account. All events cited are verified from named credible news sources published February 19-26, 2026. Index updated 17:30 Lebanon time, Thursday February 26, 2026.