CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX Sept 10 2025

📊 TODAY’S LEBANON SECURITY INDEX READING

INDEX LEVEL: 🔴 CRITICAL

TODAY’S OVERALL INDEX: 95/100

TREND ANALYSIS: ⚡ VOLATILE – POST-CABINET TENSIONS

🌡️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNATE SECURITY ASSESSMENT

BEIRUT 🏙️

Index Reading: 94/100 🔴

Status: Critical. Following the September 5 cabinet meeting where Hezbollah and Amal ministers walked out as the government approved the Lebanese Armed Forces’ plan to disarm Hezbollah, tensions remain extremely high in the capital. The cabinet welcomed the army plan without setting a timeframe for implementation, creating continued uncertainty. Security forces maintain heightened presence around government buildings as protests continue in various neighborhoods, particularly in areas with strong Hezbollah support.

Key Factor: Post-cabinet meeting tensions following the disarmament plan approval, with no clear implementation timeline creating dangerous uncertainty.

MOUNT LEBANON 🏞️

Index Reading: 88/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The governorate continues to experience significant civil unrest following the cabinet’s decision. Major highways remain intermittently blocked by protesters opposing the disarmament plan. Despite the meeting ending without clear commitments, Hezbollah has responded by praising the cabinet’s “wisdom and reason”, suggesting tactical positioning rather than acceptance. Armed faction presence remains high in certain areas.

Key Factor: Sustained protest activity and strategic positioning by armed factions following the ambiguous cabinet decision.

NORTH LEBANON 🌊

Index Reading: 92/100 🔴

Status: Critical. Tripoli and surrounding areas remain highly volatile. The socio-economic crisis continues to fuel tensions, with the disarmament debate adding another layer of instability. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri warned that Lebanon faces a “ball of fire” over the disarmament issue, reflecting the extreme sensitivity of the situation in areas with diverse sectarian populations.

Key Factor: Combination of economic desperation and sectarian tensions amplified by the national disarmament crisis.

AKKAR 🌲

Index Reading: 94/100 🔴

Status: Critical. The Syrian border remains extremely volatile with continued security threats. The LAF’s capacity to manage border security is severely strained by the ongoing political crisis and resource limitations. Cross-border incidents continue, with smuggling operations and militant movements reported despite increased army deployments.

Key Factor: Porous border with Syria compounded by LAF resource constraints amid the disarmament crisis.

BEQAA VALLEY 🍇

Index Reading: 96/100 🔴

Status: Critical. As a Hezbollah stronghold, the region remains on highest alert following the cabinet decision. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam stated the government tasked the army with developing a plan to restrict weapons to government forces by the end of 2025, a timeline that Hezbollah has not accepted. Israeli surveillance drones continue regular overflights, maintaining military pressure.

Key Factor: Core Hezbollah territory under pressure from both disarmament plans and continued Israeli military surveillance.

BAALBEK-HERMEL 🕌

Index Reading: 97/100 🔴

Status: Critical. This Hezbollah stronghold remains the most sensitive area regarding disarmament. The Lebanese military will begin implementing its plan to disarm Hezbollah, though details remain secret, creating extreme uncertainty and potential for violent resistance. The area continues to be subject to Israeli surveillance operations.

Key Factor: Ground zero for potential confrontation over disarmament implementation.

KESERWAN-JBEIL 🏛️

Index Reading: 72/100 🟡

Status: Elevated. While less volatile than other regions, tensions have increased following the cabinet decision. Small solidarity protests have occurred, and the area remains vulnerable to spillover from national tensions. Israeli violations of Lebanese airspace continue over this region.

Key Factor: Relatively stable but increasingly affected by national political tensions.

SOUTH LEBANON 🌴

Index Reading: 98/100 🔴

Status: Critical – Active Conflict Zone. UNIFIL reported that Israeli drones dropped four grenades close to its peacekeepers in southern Lebanon near the border, marking a severe escalation. UNIFIL’s mandate was extended until December 31, 2026, after which it will have a year to withdraw and hand over control to the Lebanese Army. The area remains under constant Israeli surveillance and periodic strikes.

Key Factor: Active Israeli military operations against UNIFIL peacekeepers and ongoing border violations.

NABATIEH ⛪

Index Reading: 98/100 🔴

Status: Critical – Active Conflict Zone. Amnesty International has documented Israel’s extensive destruction in Southern Lebanon, with the region bearing the brunt of military operations. The area remains highly militarized with both Hezbollah and Israeli forces maintaining aggressive postures along the border.

Key Factor: Continued Israeli military operations and extensive infrastructure damage documented by international organizations.

🎯 TODAY’S SECURITY INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

🔥 HIGH-RISK AREAS TO MONITOR:

Location 1: Southern Lebanon border areas – Following the September 3 Israeli drone attack on UNIFIL peacekeepers

Location 2: Baalbek-Hermel – Primary resistance point for disarmament implementation

Location 3: Beirut government district – Continued protests following cabinet decision

Location 4: Beqaa Valley – Hezbollah stronghold under surveillance and political pressure

Location 5: Tripoli – Sectarian tensions amplified by national crisis

Location 6: Lebanese-Syrian border – Continued security threats and smuggling operations

Location 7: UNIFIL positions – Under direct threat from Israeli military actions

✅ RELATIVELY LOWER-RISK ZONES (WITH EXTREME CAUTION):

Area 1: Coastal cities of Jbeil (Byblos) and Batroun – Caveat: Subject to rapid deterioration

Area 2: Central Mount Lebanon residential areas – Caveat: Vulnerable to protest spillover

Area 3: Northern Metn district – Caveat: Monitor for sudden security changes

⚠️ AVOID TODAY:

DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. The U.S. State Department advises “Do Not Travel to Lebanon due to crime, terrorism, civil unrest, kidnapping, unexploded landmines, and the risk of armed conflict”

• All areas of South Lebanon and Nabatieh
• Baalbek-Hermel region
• Syrian border areas
• Any political demonstrations or gatherings
• Government buildings and security installations

📱 PROFESSIONAL SECURITY GUIDANCE

🏠 FOR RESIDENTS:

The implementation of the disarmament plan without clear timeline or details creates extreme uncertainty. Maintain maximum vigilance and preparedness for rapid security deterioration.

• Keep 2-week emergency supplies (food, water, medicine, cash)
• Maintain multiple communication channels
• Identify nearest shelters and safe rooms
• Have evacuation plans ready with multiple routes
• Monitor local news continuously
• Avoid discussing political topics in public

🏢 FOR BUSINESSES:

Critical operational period requiring maximum security measures.

• Review and test crisis management protocols immediately
• Ensure all staff know evacuation procedures
• Maintain skeleton crews only for essential operations
• Secure all facilities with enhanced measures
• Back up all critical data offshore
• Prepare for potential infrastructure disruptions

🚗 FOR TRAVELERS:

DO NOT TRAVEL TO LEBANON. International governments continue to advise against all travel. Commercial flights may be cancelled without notice. Evacuation options are extremely limited.

🔮 24-HOUR SECURITY FORECAST

Predicted Index Reading: 94/100

Forecast Trend: ⚡ HIGHLY VOLATILE

Expected Factors:

• Continued tensions over disarmament implementation
• Potential for localized clashes between opposing factions
• Ongoing Israeli military operations in the south
• Possible escalation of protests in urban areas
• Risk of security incidents at checkpoints

Preparation Recommendation: Maintain highest alert status. Be prepared for sudden security deterioration, particularly around protest sites and in areas with mixed sectarian populations.

📊 WEEKLY SECURITY ANALYSIS

This Week’s Average: 94/100

Change from Last Week: -2 points (Slight improvement following cabinet meeting, but situation remains critical)

Monthly Trend: Severely Deteriorated

Seasonal Assessment: The security environment has entered a new phase following the cabinet’s approval of the disarmament plan. While the lack of clear timeline has temporarily reduced immediate confrontation risk, the underlying tensions remain explosive. The combination of internal political crisis, ongoing Israeli military actions including attacks on UN peacekeepers, and economic collapse creates an extremely dangerous environment.

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IMMEDIATE ASSISTANCE AVAILABLE

📞 Emergency Hotline: +961-3-539900
🌐 Website: www.cissecurity.net

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DISCLAIMER: This security index is based on available open-source intelligence and should be used as one component of comprehensive security planning. Situations can change rapidly. Always verify current conditions through multiple sources.