CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX - July 25 2026

🇱🇧 CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™

Saturday, July 25, 2026

🟠 WAR DAY 146 | TRUMP REPORTEDLY PLEDGED TO "REIN IN" NETANYAHU, SENDS US MILITARY MISSION TO ASSESS LAF NEEDS | HEZBOLLAH CALLS AOUN'S WASHINGTON VISIT A "FAILURE," "SUBMISSION TO FOREIGN TUTELAGE" | AOUN: "TIME HAS COME TO BRING A DEFINITIVE END TO THE WAR" | SALAM VISITS ZAWTAR AL-GHARBIYEH, VOWS REBUILDING | UNESCO ADDS TYRE TO ENDANGERED HERITAGE LIST; ISRAEL OBJECTS TO BEAUFORT CASTLE NOMINATION | IRAN CLAIMS NEW STRIKES ON US BASES IN BAHRAIN, JORDAN, KUWAIT

INDEX LEVEL: 🟠 HIGH — DIPLOMATIC AFTERMATH OF THE WASHINGTON VISIT NOW PLAYING OUT IN PUBLIC, POSITION BY POSITION OVERALL INDEX: 66/100 TREND: ↔️ STABLE, WITH A MODEST POSITIVE TILT ON THE US-LEBANON TRACK — In the days since President Aoun's White House meeting, the practical follow-through has become clearer, and it is more substantive than Tuesday's vague public exchange suggested. A political source told Asharq al-Awsat that President Trump privately pledged to Aoun that he would work to "rein in" Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and prevent him, "as much as possible," from further escalating tensions — and that Trump instructed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, in the room at the time, to send a US military mission to Beirut to assess the Lebanese Army's needs as part of deepening military cooperation between the two countries. Aoun himself struck a notably optimistic public tone Friday, saying his meeting with Trump "was fruitful, and the time has come to bring a definitive end to the war," and calling on the European Union to support implementation of the framework. Prime Minister Salam personally visited Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh — the first pilot-zone village handed over on Tuesday — and vowed Lebanon is seeking "complete Israeli withdrawal" and will begin rebuilding. Hezbollah, however, delivered its own blunt verdict Thursday: the Washington visit was a "failure" that revealed the government's "extent of subservience and submission to foreign tutelage," having secured no American commitment to Israeli withdrawal, no halt to continued strikes, and no path to returning the displaced. Separately, UNESCO added the war-damaged city of Tyre to its List of World Heritage in Danger, while Israel's Foreign Ministry formally objected to a separate UNESCO nomination that would list Beaufort Castle — currently held by Israeli forces — as a protected heritage site. And the broader regional war ground on, with Iran's military claiming fresh strikes on US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait.

⛔ EXECUTIVE SUMMARY — SATURDAY JULY 25, 2026 (WAR DAY 146)

TRUMP'S PRIVATE PLEDGE: "REIN IN" NETANYAHU, SEND A MILITARY MISSION TO ASSESS THE LAF

CIS is reporting, for the first time, more granular detail on what actually happened behind closed doors during Tuesday's Trump-Aoun meeting, based on an "informed political source" cited by Asharq al-Awsat:

• Trump pledged to Aoun that he would work to restrain Netanyahu and prevent him, "as much as possible, from escalating tensions."
• Trump "responded positively" to Aoun's specific proposals, particularly regarding providing all forms of support to the Lebanese Army.
• During the summit itself, Trump instructed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth — who was present in the room — to "send a military mission to Beirut to assess the army's needs" as part of developing and strengthening the bilateral military cooperation program.
• The source said Trump "demonstrated full responsiveness to Aoun's requests."

CIS assessment: This is materially more substantive than the public exchange CIS reported from Tuesday's meeting, where Trump gave only noncommittal answers on a withdrawal timeline and LAF support when asked directly by reporters. If accurate, a direct in-person instruction to the sitting US Defense Secretary to dispatch an assessment mission to Beirut is a concrete, verifiable action CIS can watch for confirmation of in the coming days — a genuinely different category of commitment than rhetorical support. CIS treats this as credible but notes it rests on a single sourced account relayed through a regional newspaper rather than a US government confirmation, and will seek corroboration.

AOUN: "TIME HAS COME TO BRING A DEFINITIVE END TO THE WAR"

President Aoun said Friday: "My meeting with President Trump was fruitful, and the time has come to bring a definitive end to the war." He separately called on the European Union to support the implementation of the framework agreement reached with Israel in late June, and said Lebanon remains committed to the path of reforms despite continuing to be under Israeli attack.

CIS assessment: This is a notably more upbeat public assessment than Aoun's own more cautious tone in Tuesday's Oval Office session, and — combined with the Asharq al-Awsat reporting on Trump's private commitments — suggests Aoun personally came away from Washington believing he secured real, if not yet delivered, assurances.

SALAM VISITS ZAWTAR AL-GHARBIYEH: "COMPLETE ISRAELI WITHDRAWAL" IS THE GOAL

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam personally visited Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh — the first village handed over from Israeli to Lebanese Army control under the pilot-zone scheme — and said Lebanon is seeking "complete Israeli withdrawal," vowing the government will begin rebuilding the village. Army Commander Rodolphe Haykal separately visited the village and "reviewed the measures" taken by troops there.

CIS assessment: A prime ministerial visit to the newly-handed-over village, paired with an explicit rebuilding pledge, signals the government intends to treat Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh as a proof-of-concept it wants to visibly succeed — both to reassure displaced residents it is safe to return and to build public momentum for further pilot-zone handovers.

HEZBOLLAH'S VERDICT: WASHINGTON VISIT WAS A "FAILURE," SHOWED "SUBMISSION TO FOREIGN TUTELAGE"

Hezbollah issued a formal lawmakers' statement Thursday branding Aoun's Washington visit a failure, stating it revealed "the extent of subservience and submission to foreign tutelage." The statement itemized what the group says the visit failed to achieve:

• No American commitment to "the withdrawal of the enemy from our land" (Israel).
• No halt to what Hezbollah called "the crimes of killing, bombing and bulldozing that this enemy continues to commit against our people."
• No path to "a safe return for the displaced" or the start of reconstruction.

Hezbollah's lawmakers also reiterated the group's categorical rejection of Beirut's direct talks with Israel (ongoing since April) and of the US-sponsored framework agreement itself, while separately renewing their own call for full Israeli withdrawal from the south — a demand Hezbollah frames as necessary but insists cannot come through the current negotiating framework.

CIS assessment: Hezbollah's critique is notable for what it does and does not dispute: the group does not deny that Israeli withdrawal is the correct goal (it explicitly demands the same outcome Aoun sought in Washington) — it disputes that Aoun's diplomatic approach can or will deliver it, and frames the visit itself as evidence of national humiliation rather than strategy. This continues the pattern CIS has tracked since mid-July of Hezbollah escalating its rhetorical attacks on the presidency specifically, even as it continues to avoid direct confrontation with the army.

UNESCO ADDS TYRE TO ENDANGERED HERITAGE LIST; ISRAEL OBJECTS TO BEAUFORT CASTLE NOMINATION

In a development combining cultural heritage protection with the ongoing military reality on the ground, UNESCO added the war-damaged Lebanese city of Tyre to its List of World Heritage in Danger, reflecting the accumulated damage documented throughout CIS's tracking of strikes on that city and its surrounding district since March.

Separately, and in direct tension with this, Israel's Foreign Ministry formally objected to a UNESCO nomination covering five castles in Lebanon's Mount Amel area — including Beaufort Castle, which Israeli forces captured in May and continue to hold. The Israeli ministry stated that Hezbollah has turned Beaufort Castle into a military stronghold by building tunnels beneath the site and launching rockets from the area, and accused UNESCO of ignoring these developments in considering the site for heritage protection.

CIS assessment: This dispute is a microcosm of the war's central, unresolved argument — is Beaufort Castle a historic and cultural site deserving of protected status, or an active Hezbollah military position that happens to sit atop one? Both framings are likely true simultaneously, and CIS notes this specific site (which it has flagged repeatedly as an active zone of Israeli military operations) is unlikely to see any near-term change in status regardless of UNESCO's eventual decision.

REGIONAL WAR CONTINUES: IRAN CLAIMS FRESH STRIKES ON BAHRAIN, JORDAN, KUWAIT BASES

Iran's military said Friday it had again attacked US bases in Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait, continuing the pattern of claimed retaliatory strikes CIS has tracked since the US-Iran ceasefire's collapse in early July. CIS notes, consistent with its approach throughout this conflict, that these are Iranian military claims that CIS cannot independently verify, and the Pentagon has continued to release only limited confirming detail on individual incidents.

Separately, in a minor but symbolically resonant item, a Japanese militant who participated in the 1972 Lod Airport (Tel Aviv) attack died in Beirut this week — a reminder of the decades-long history of transnational militant networks operating out of Lebanon that long predates the current war.

CIS assessment: The regional war shows no clear sign of abating, continuing to run as a parallel track alongside — and periodically intersecting with — the Lebanon-specific negotiations. CIS continues to monitor for any sign this broader war draws Hezbollah back into direct rocket fire, which, as of this writing, remains absent.

📊 UPDATED KEY FIGURES — AS OF JULY 25, 2026

CIS notes the 4,230/12,179 OCHA figure is now a month old (dated to the June 25 update referenced in the UN Security Council's July Monthly Forecast) and almost certainly understates the current cumulative toll given the continued strikes CIS has documented since; CIS will continue seeking a more current official figure.

📌 WHAT CIS IS WATCHING — THE WEEK AHEAD

1. Does a US military assessment mission actually arrive in Beirut, confirming the Asharq al-Awsat account of Trump's private instruction to Hegseth?
2. Does any visible change in Netanyahu's public posture or Israeli military conduct in south Lebanon emerge, which would be the clearest test of whether Trump's reported pledge to "rein in" him has any practical effect?
3. Does the Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh rebuilding effort Salam pledged actually begin, and do displaced residents begin returning, providing a real-world test case other pilot-zone villages will be watched against?
4. Does Hezbollah's "failure" framing of the Washington visit harden into any further concrete action, or remain at the level of rhetoric, consistent with the group's approach since mid-July?
5. Does UNESCO's Tyre designation, or the Beaufort Castle heritage dispute, have any practical effect on military conduct in either location?

🛡️ CIS SECURITY — JULY 25 ASSESSMENT & GUIDANCE

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 | "Because Your Safety Isn't Optional"

CIS POSTURE: LEVEL 4 — HIGH ALERT (maintained)

CIS maintains Level 4 — High Alert. The reported substance behind Tuesday's Washington meeting is incrementally more encouraging than CIS's initial assessment, but remains unconfirmed by official US or Israeli statements, and no independently verifiable change in on-the-ground military conduct has yet occurred.

ZONE-BY-ZONE GUIDANCE

ZAWTAR AL-GHARBIYEH: Elevated but improving — active rebuilding and official visits underway; residents should continue to follow Lebanese Army guidance on timing of return. ZAWTAR AL-SHARQIYEH / BUFFER ZONE BOUNDARY: Continue to avoid given the unresolved risk from last week's gunfire incident. BEAUFORT CASTLE / MOUNT AMEL AREA: Avoid — confirmed active Israeli military position with ongoing operational significance. MANSOURI (TYRE DISTRICT): Continue to avoid pending resolution of the July 18 fatal blast investigation. SECURITY ZONE / BUFFER ZONE (GENERAL): Do not approach under any circumstances. DAHIYEH, BEKAA VALLEY: Maintain elevated caution given the ongoing regional war and Hezbollah's hardened political rhetoric. BEIRUT (general), MOUNT LEBANON, NORTH LEBANON, AKKAR: Calm, normal operations continue.

📞 EMERGENCY CONTACTS — JULY 25, 2026

CIS Security 24/7: +961 3 539900 | info@cissecurity.net | www.cissecurity.net Lebanese Army South Lebanon Liaison: +961-8-802-510 US Embassy Emergency: +1-202-501-4444 | BeirutACS@state.gov Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 Civil Defence: 125 ISF: 112 National Mental Health Lifeline: 1564 (24/7 — confidential)

⚠️ FINAL ASSESSMENT — WAR DAY 146, JULY 25, 2026

The days since Aoun's historic Washington visit have brought both more encouraging private detail and a sharper public rejection than the meeting itself suggested at the time.

If the Asharq al-Awsat account of Trump's private commitments is accurate — a pledge to restrain Netanyahu and a direct instruction to send a US military assessment mission to Beirut — this represents genuine substance behind what was, in public, a warm but vague exchange. Aoun's own upbeat framing on Friday, and Salam's hands-on visit to Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh with a concrete rebuilding pledge, suggest the Lebanese government came away from this week believing it has real, if not yet delivered, assurances to build on.

Hezbollah's verdict could not be more different: a "failure" that achieved nothing but demonstrated submission. CIS notes that this is not a dispute over the desired outcome — both the government and Hezbollah want Israeli withdrawal — but over whether Beirut's diplomatic strategy can plausibly deliver it, and over who gets to claim credit or blame for how this plays out.

The coming days offer a clear, falsifiable test: does a US military mission actually arrive in Beirut, does any change in Israeli conduct become visible, and does Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh's rebuilding proceed as a genuine model for further pilot-zone villages? CIS will be watching all three closely, alongside the continuing, unresolved regional war between the US and Iran that remains the volatile backdrop against which all of this unfolds.

CIS maintains Level 4 — High Alert and will adjust as concrete confirmation — or lack thereof — of this week's reported private commitments emerges.

+961 3 539900 | info@cissecurity.net | cissecurity.net CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn't Optional — Est. 1990

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ | Saturday, July 25, 2026 | WAR DAY 146

Sources: Naharnet, "Trump promised Aoun to rein in Netanyahu, support army" (July 24, 2026 — full Asharq al-Awsat-sourced quotes on Hegseth instruction, military mission to Beirut); Naharnet, "Aoun: My meeting with Trump was fruitful, time has come to end war" (July 24-25, 2026 — full quotes, EU appeal); Naharnet, "Salam inspects Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh, says Lebanon seeking 'complete Israeli withdrawal'" (July 23-24, 2026 — Haykal visit detail); Naharnet, "Hezbollah says Aoun's US visit 'submission' to foreign power link" (July 23-24, 2026 — full lawmakers' statement quotes); Arab News, "Hezbollah says Lebanon president's US visit 'submission' to foreign power" (July 24, 2026 — additional Trump "we'll be looking at that" quote); RTE News, "Hezbollah brands Aoun's visit to US a 'submission'" (July 23, 2026 — Haykal Zawtar visit detail); The Times of Israel liveblog, July 23-24, 2026 (UNESCO Tyre heritage-in-danger listing, Beaufort Castle Foreign Ministry objection, full quotes on tunnels/rockets); The Times of Israel liveblog, "July 24" (Iran military claims on Bahrain/Jordan/Kuwait base strikes); Muslim Network TV, "Hezbollah criticizes Lebanese president's Washington visit as submission to US" (July 24, 2026); Al-Monitor/Reuters, "Lebanon's Aoun, Trump discuss disarming Hezbollah" (July 21-22, 2026 — background on Aoun's approach, nearly two-hour visit detail); MSNBC/MS NOW, "Lebanon's president asks Trump to do what he rarely does: Cross Netanyahu" (July 21, 2026 — framing of the Trump-Netanyahu dynamic); UN Security Council Report, "Lebanon, July 2026 Monthly Forecast" (OCHA 4,230 killed/12,179 injured figure as of June 25 update); prior CIS reporting (July 4–22, 2026) carried forward for context.

CIS notes the account of Trump's private pledges to Aoun rests on a single sourced report (Asharq al-Awsat, via an unnamed "informed political source") and has not been independently confirmed by US or Israeli officials as of this writing; CIS presents it as a credible but unverified account. Iranian military claims of strikes on US bases are likewise presented as reported claims, not independently confirmed facts. All other diplomatic and political statements are attributed to named officials or sourced reporting, July 21–25, 2026. Index compiled: Saturday, July 25, 2026 — Beirut time.