All Reports

➡️ STEADY — unchanged from 70 (HIGH) on October 9.

70/100 — HIGH, easing by one point. Southern military activity continues; no Lebanese civilian casualties were reported for October 7–9 in the reviewed sources. An Israeli officer’s death is assessed separately from civilian risk. EU diplomacy and regional tensions remain in focus. War Day 222; Level 5 — High Alert.

71/100 — HIGH, unchanged from October 7. A UNIFIL post near Kfar Shuba was hit by small-arms fire; the shooter is unidentified. Haddatha incursion and southern strikes continue, with no casualties reported in the reviewed sources. EU diplomacy and US–Iran risks remain in focus. War Day 221; Level 5 — High Alert.

71/100 — HIGH, steady overall and down one point from October 6. Qassem signals cooperation without external dictates; Qatar reports continued US–Iran messages. No October 7 ground incidents were located at compilation; the October 5–6 baseline remains. War Day 220; CIS maintains Level 5 — High Alert.

72/100 — HIGH, up one point from October 5. A civilian is injured in Shoukin; the cause is provisionally attributed by local reporting. Israeli forces enter Kfar Shuba, while regional airport and shipping tensions continue. War Day 219; CIS maintains Level 5 — High Alert.

71/100 — HIGH, steady overall and down one point against the supplied October 4 baseline. Israeli strikes resume after a quieter night; phosphorus fire is reported in Majdal Zoun. October 20 talks remain a reported date. War Day 218; CIS maintains Level 5 — High Alert.

Proposed analyst estimate: 73/100 (HIGH), up one point from the October 3 estimate. Shelling near journalists in Mayfadoun and bombardment in Mansouri sustain southern exposure. War Day 217; reporting cutoff 19:30 Beirut time. Unverified claims and retained baselines are identified.

Proposed analyst estimate: 72/100 (HIGH), up two points from October 2. Houla school demolition, southern strikes and Mansouri blasts sustain high alert. War Day 216; sources through 20:07 Beirut time. Retained regional baselines are identified in the full report.

STEADY — 70/100 (HIGH), down one point from October 1. PM Salam visits Nabatieh as shelling and demolitions continue in the south. A tanker is hit in Hormuz; Iran has not publicly answered the US proposal. CIS maintains Level 5 — High Alert.

⬆️ RISING — up from 69 (HIGH) on September 30.

FALLING — 69/100 (HIGH), down from 73. Iran receives the US response to its Hormuz proposal; overnight shelling continues in the south. The Golani Brigade announcement describes a rotation, while Salam’s office disputes reported meeting remarks. CIS holds Level 5.

FALLING — 73/100 (HIGH). Indirect US–Iran contacts reopen via Qatar, while demolitions continue in southern Lebanon. No new cross-border attack claim was identified in the reporting window. CIS maintains Level 5 — High Alert.

EASING — 80/100 (HIGH), down from 84. No new cross-border exchange was located in the sources reviewed. Salam presses for an Israeli withdrawal timetable; US–Iran signals conflict. CIS steps down to Level 5 and corrects two points from the previous edition.

RISING SHARPLY — 84/100 (CRITICAL). The report tracks a claimed drone attack and Israeli strikes, the rejected Hormuz–Lebanon ceasefire proposal, and renewed annexation rhetoric. CIS raises its posture to Level 6 — Critical Escalation Alert.

EASING — 74/100 (HIGH). Salam urges respect for Lebanese sovereignty at the UN; Fadlallah signals conditional openness to indirect negotiations. Ground conditions remain unchanged; CIS maintains Severe Alert.

↔️ HOLDING, WITH GENUINE BUT CONTESTED DIPLOMATIC MOVEMENT — Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told the New York Times and the Guardian in New York on Thursday that Iran has submitted a proposal to the United States under which a seven-day cessation of hostilities across the Middle East — explicitly including Lebanon — would culminate in Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz on the seventh day, contingent on the release of at least $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets, the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil, and an end to the US naval blockade of Iran.

⬇️ EASING (MODESTLY) — The European Commission announced €505 million in financial support for Lebanon covering 2026 and 2027, the second and final tranche of a €1 billion package first announced by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during her May 2024 visit to Beirut.

⬆️ RISING — This week's UN General Assembly session in New York has produced the most consequential single day of statements CIS has tracked in this cycle, and they pull in genuinely opposite directions.

↔️ HOLDING — CIS begins today's edition with a correction to its own September 21 report, in which CIS stated it had found no major new incident for that day.

⬇️ EASING (CAUTIOUSLY, PENDING CONFIRMATION) — As of this edition, CIS has not identified a new major incident specific to Monday, September 21, comparable in scale to the events of the preceding three days: Friday's hospital burning in Mays al-Jabal, the Israeli-Lebanese army tank standoff at Deir Mimas, the double-tap strike on an ambulance crew in Nabatieh al-Fawqa's Old Square, and the Israeli claim that two soldiers were hurt by a Hezbollah-attributed explosive device.

⬆️ RISING — Al Jazeera reported that Israeli warplanes struck the Old Square neighborhood of Nabatieh al-Fawqa twice in quick succession on Friday, and that a third strike then targeted the ambulance crew that responded to render aid — a strike sequence consistent with the internationally recognized "double-tap" pattern, in which a location is struck, then struck again once rescuers arrive.

⬆️ RISING SHARPLY — Lebanon's National News Agency reported that Israeli forces set fire Friday to the government hospital in Mays al-Jabal, a border town inside Israel's self-declared security zone in Marjayoun district.

↔️ HOLDING, WITH BROADENING GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE — Anadolu Agency reported that Israeli forces carried out a wide-ranging set of operations across four southern Lebanese districts on Thursday: airstrikes, artillery shelling, machine-gun fire, explosions, and the bulldozing and burning of homes across Tyre, Nabatieh, Marjayoun, and Bint Jbeil districts, while Israeli drones flew at low altitude over Beirut, its southern suburbs, and — notably — the Hermel district in Lebanon's east, well outside the recurring southern theater CIS has focused on for most of this month.

↔️ HOLDING, WITH A NEW POLITICAL FRACTURE LINE — Lebanon's parliament concluded a two-day general debate session by granting Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's government a vote of confidence, with 68 MPs in favor, 12 withholding support, and 2 abstaining.

⬇️ EASING (MODESTLY) — President Joseph Aoun told AFP in an interview published Wednesday that Lebanon wants a new international force — potentially from Europe or elsewhere — to prevent a security "vacuum" in the south when UN peacekeepers (UNIFIL) withdraw at the end of this year, describing any such force as "temporary until the Lebanese army can deploy." More significantly, Aoun said he wants a security agreement with Israel "primarily to end the state of hostility and the deployment of the army on the border," explicitly framing it as a possible prelude to a full peace agreement, while stressing "we cannot jump directly to a peace agreement." He also reaffirmed his determination to disarm Hezbollah "without a confrontation." CIS regards this as the most substantively forward-looking diplomatic statement it has recorded from Lebanon's presidency in this entire cycle — a step beyond the "no new talks at present" posture Aoun held as recently as Saturday, toward an actual, if still preliminary, articulated roadmap.

⬇️ EASING (MODESTLY) — CIS lowers its Index slightly from yesterday's 80, reflecting a day without a new hardline Israeli statement on the scale of Sunday's "eliminate anyone approaching" threat, and without a new mass-casualty incident.

⬆️ RISING — Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Sunday that Israeli forces will "eliminate" anyone who approaches the Ali al-Taher ridge, describing the army as preparing to take control of the area and to prevent Hezbollah or any other party from re-establishing a presence there.

↔️ HOLDING AT AN ELEVATED PLATEAU — Lebanon's National News Agency reported more than 30 separate explosions in the town of Al-Mansouri, in Tyre district, between Friday evening and Saturday, as Israeli forces destroyed homes, shelled the town with artillery, and used a drone to drop containers of highly explosive material onto the area.

↗️ WORSENING (DIPLOMATICALLY) — CIS nudges its Index score up today, not because of a new mass-casualty incident, but because the primary mechanism for de-escalating this conflict has just been pushed back by a full month.

↔️ MIXED — CIS holds its reading close to Thursday's level, but the character of today's top story is different from anything CIS has reported in this cycle.