All Reports

⬆️⬆️ SHARP RE-ESCALATION — After several weeks in which the acute nightly-strikes phase of the US-Iran war appeared to have given way to a sanctions-driven standoff, hostilities have reignited dramatically over the past 48 hours.

⬆️ RISING SHARPLY — CIS must report today the most consequential single verdict on the entire post-framework process since it began tracking this conflict in late June.

⬇️ −7 (64 → 57), a band change from HIGH to MEDIUM driven by Nabatieh.

⬇️ −9 (73 revised → 64), driven by Nabatieh.

⬇️ −7 (75 → 68), driven by Nabatieh.

⬆️ RISING ON THE LEBANON-SPECIFIC TRACK, EASING ON THE BROADER REGIONAL TRACK — CIS must correct and update the picture from its August 25 report.

⬆️ +12 (62 → 74).

⬆️ +6 (56 → 62).

⬆️ +1 (55 → 56).

⬇️ FIRST DROP OUT OF THE HIGH BAND — The national alert level reads 55/100 MEDIUM, down six points from 61 and set by Nabatieh.

⬇️ EASING AS THE 15 AUGUST LOAD DECAYS OUT — The national alert level reads 61/100 HIGH, set by Nabatieh and sitting at the very bottom edge of the HIGH band. 15 August, the deadliest day since the truce, has now fully exited the seven-day window, while yesterday's published score is revised upward from 64 to 73 after further reporting surfaced eight additional incidents.

⬇️ TENTATIVE EASING ON A REVISED BASIS — The national alert level reads 64/100 HIGH, set by Nabatieh and down eight points on a revised basis.

⬇️ EASING CONTINUES, NOT DE-ESCALATION — The national alert level reads 69/100 HIGH, set by Nabatieh and down two points from 71.

⬇️ SMALLEST FALL OF THE DECLINE — The national alert level reads 71/100 HIGH, set by Nabatieh and down two points from 73, the smallest daily fall since the decline began on 17 August.

⬇️ EASING BY DECAY, SECOND CONSECUTIVE FALL — The national alert level reads 73/100 HIGH, set by Nabatieh and down six points from 79 as Saturday's mass-casualty day decays further out of the seven-day window.

⬇️ EASING BY DECAY, BAND FALLS TO HIGH — The national alert level reads 79/100 HIGH, set by Nabatieh and down six points from 85 as Saturday's mass-casualty day ages out of the seven-day window.

⬇️ EASING BY DECAY, STILL CRITICAL — The national alert level reads 85/100 CRITICAL, set by Nabatieh and down seven points from 92 as the weekend's mass-casualty load ages out of the seven-day window.

⬇️ EASING FROM PEAK, STILL CRITICAL — The national alert level reads 91/100 CRITICAL, set by Nabatieh and down three points from 94 as Saturday's mass-casualty load decays.

⬆️⬆️ SHARPLY RISING — CIS must report the deadliest single Israeli attack on Lebanon since the truce that took hold in June.

↔️ STABLE — CIS must open today's update with a correction to its own prior reporting.

⬆️ SLIGHT DETERIORATION — CIS is elevating its index by one point today to reflect what is, in CIS's assessment, the most significant political development of the past week: a public, on-the-record rebuke from the Trump administration to its own security partner.

↔️ STABLE, WITH A SERIOUS NEW ACCOUNTABILITY DIMENSION — CIS is incorporating today a major finding that sharpens the legal stakes of this conflict considerably: Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and the Lebanese rights group The Legal Agenda released separate investigations concluding that Israel's April 22 killing of veteran Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil in al-Tiri, southern Lebanon, was very likely an intentional, targeted killing that constitutes a war crime, compounded by a deliberate, hours-long obstruction of rescuers that a postmortem examination suggests may have cost Khalil her life.

↔️ HOLDING AT SEVERE LEVEL, WITH A NOTABLE OFFICIAL CLAIM OF UNDERLYING IMPROVEMENT — CIS is holding its assessment in the HIGH-CRITICAL band across this reporting window (August 9-11), balancing two genuinely different pictures presented by the same set of facts.

⬆️ RISING SHARPLY — CIS must report today that the pattern of continued Israeli military activity, which UNIFIL first quantified for CIS on August 3, has now escalated to its highest documented level.

↔️ HOLDING AT SEVERE LEVEL, WITH GENUINELY MIXED SIGNALS — CIS is holding its assessment at a severely elevated level over this three-day reporting window (August 7-9), with countervailing developments pulling in different directions.

↔️ STABLE BUT CONTRADICTORY — CIS must report a genuinely striking incident today: Israeli troops infiltrated Zawtar al-Gharbiyeh overnight — the single village CIS has tracked most closely as the framework's proof-of-concept success story since its July 21 handover — and built a new earthen barrier roughly 100 meters from the town square, blocking a road at the village's eastern entrance.

⬆️ RISING — CIS must report a significant and unambiguous military escalation today.

↔️ STABLE TO SLIGHTLY EASING — The seventh round of US-brokered Israel-Lebanon talks, running Tuesday through today in Rome, appears more substantive than prior rounds in its actual agenda — but reportedly no closer to a breakthrough.

⬆️⬆️ SHARPLY RISING — CIS is raising its assessment materially today, from 70 to 78, reflecting the most serious single military escalation CIS has recorded since the ceasefire took hold on June 20.

⬇️ EASING (LEBANON TRACK, CAUTIOUSLY) — CIS is moderating its assessment slightly today, from 73 to 70, while maintaining the HIGH band.