All Reports

72/100 — HIGH, provisional, easing on decay only, with October 30 revised up to 73. Israeli forces set houses on fire in Qantara and blew up a house near Shebaa; a young man from Rab Thalathine is missing after walking from Wadi Hujeir toward Qantara. The Military Court commissioner charged 13 people in the Hezbollah explosives case. War Day 244.

73/100 — HIGH (final; published as provisional 72, revised after late reports of houses burned in Qantara and an interceptor over Taybeh). Two explosive-laden drones detonated over Mansouri with no claimed origin; jets struck Kfar Tibnit twice; General Security seized explosives in Tripoli. War Day 243.

73/100 — HIGH (final; published as provisional 72, revised after late reports of jet strikes on Kfar Tibnit and drone blasts over Mansouri). Israeli forces struck the Deir Mimas municipality after a window warning; Israel's near-final count is 53–48–19; the WSJ reports a possible US offensive on Iran after November 3. War Day 242.

73/100 — HIGH (final; published as provisional 72, revised after nine late incidents, including a strike on the Deir Mimas municipality). Israel's election produced no majority; a Hezbollah official said it gives no guarantees to stay out of a war; the US Embassy in Beirut is on restricted operations. War Day 241.

73/100 — HIGH, down one point on Israel's election day, with October 26 revised up to 74. Unexploded ordnance injured a man collecting scrap metal in Deir Kifa, ending six days without reported casualties. Aoun said Lebanon would welcome a European force if UNIFIL ends. War Day 240.

74/100 — HIGH (final; published as provisional 73, revised after 13 late incidents were coded). On the eve of Israel's election the Marjayoun district came under heavy fire, a house was demolished in Khiam, and unexploded ordnance injured a man in Deir Kifa. War Day 239.

73/100 — HIGH, up one point. Fire landed near olive harvesters twice in 24 hours, in Wadi Hujeir and Aita al-Jabal, and drone and jet strikes hit Kfar Tibnit, with no one hurt. October 24 is revised up to 72. The US repeated its Level 4 warning, naming Beirut. War Day 238.

72/100 — HIGH (final; published as provisional 71, revised after ten late incidents were coded). Weekly review of October 18–24: no civilian deaths, a demolition surge on October 22 and strikes reaching Nabatieh al-Fawqa. Weekend risks are regional. War Day 237.

72/100 — HIGH, up one point as Israeli jets struck the al-Deir neighborhood and Nabatieh al-Fawqa, and homes and displaced Syrians' tents were burned in the south. No casualties were reported for a fourth day. The US opposes renewing UNIFIL's mandate. War Day 236.

71/100 — HIGH, easing one point with no casualties reported for a third day, while demolitions reached eight villages, including dozens of explosions in Beit Yahoun. The Cabinet postponed the Dahr al-Baidar explosives referral; the Tampa outcome is still unpublished. War Day 235.

72/100 — HIGH, easing one point as no casualties were reported, but this is not a calmer day. Israeli forces fired stun grenades at a Lebanese Army post in Deir Mimas, and Defense Minister Katz threatened the southern suburbs and an expansion into the Nabatieh and Litani regions. No evacuation order. War Day 234; Level 5 — High Alert.

73/100 — HIGH, easing one point. No casualties were reported on October 19 or the morning of October 20. Israeli forces blew up houses in Khiam and fired at Kfar Shuba farmers, while the Lebanese Army escorted farmers in Rashaya al-Foukhar. Tampa talks open as Israel accuses the Lebanese Army. War Day 233; Level 5 — High Alert.

74/100 — HIGH, rising one point. About 10 Israeli soldiers entered Kfar Shuba and searched homes as three Merkava tanks advanced; airstrikes hit four sites and demolitions four localities, with no casualties reported. President Aoun ordered a ban on armed displays on the eve of the Tampa talks. War Day 232; Level 5 — High Alert.

73/100 — HIGH, rising one point. Two Syrian nationals were injured in Tebnine when an unidentified object exploded as a fire was lit, and Israeli demolitions reached eight villages. Israel placed two divisions on high alert; Lebanon confirmed Tampa military talks for October 20. War Day 231; Level 5 — High Alert.

72/100 — HIGH, easing one point. Beirut rises to 40 LOW after the Army ended an armed standoff at Galerie Semaan without injuries. A drone missile hit an inhabited building in Mayfadoun. No casualties were reported on October 15–16; October 17 ground coverage was unavailable at compile time. War Day 230; Level 5 — High Alert.

73/100 — HIGH, easing one point. No new casualties were reported on October 15 or Friday morning. A missile hit Nabatieh Fawqa and Israeli forces uprooted Kfar Shuba olive groves. Beirut remains LOW at 38; the explosives case remains unresolved. War Day 229; Level 5 — High Alert.

74/100 — HIGH, up one point. A Bint Jbeil district strike injured two people, including a child; a school burned in Kfar Tibnit. Beirut remains LOW at 38: the threat against its southern suburbs is conditional, with no evacuation order. War Day 228; Level 5 — High Alert.

73/100 — HIGH, easing by two points. Four Israeli strikes followed an October 13 warning; shelling continued across six districts overnight. No new casualties were found in the reviewed Lebanon reporting after October 12 morning. The Army neutralized an old explosive device in Kfar Zabad. War Day 227; Level 5 — High Alert.

75/100 — HIGH, easing by two points. The EU approved a support mission for the Army and ISF; around 200 kg of explosives were seized in Qasr-Hermel. The edition corrects the Dahr al-Baidar seizure date to October 5. Southern reporting covers the October 12 baseline. War Day 226; Level 5 — High Alert.

77/100 — HIGH, up two points. A landmine killed Edgard Jillo in Ain Ibl, the third non-combatant death in Bint Jbeil district in two days. Israeli tanks entered eastern Kfar Shuba and homes burned in Khiam. Nabatieh 77, South Lebanon 67, Beirut 38. War Day 225; Level 5 — High Alert.

75/100 — HIGH, up five points. Two civilians were killed in olive groves near Yater and in Froun; southern strikes and demolitions continue. Nabatieh 75, South Lebanon 68, Beirut 38. The edition includes harvest safety guidance and a governorate correction. War Day 224; Level 5 — High Alert.

➡️ STEADY — unchanged from 70 (HIGH) on October 9.

70/100 — HIGH, easing by one point. Southern military activity continues; no Lebanese civilian casualties were reported for October 7–9 in the reviewed sources. An Israeli officer’s death is assessed separately from civilian risk. EU diplomacy and regional tensions remain in focus. War Day 222; Level 5 — High Alert.

71/100 — HIGH, unchanged from October 7. A UNIFIL post near Kfar Shuba was hit by small-arms fire; the shooter is unidentified. Haddatha incursion and southern strikes continue, with no casualties reported in the reviewed sources. EU diplomacy and US–Iran risks remain in focus. War Day 221; Level 5 — High Alert.

71/100 — HIGH, steady overall and down one point from October 6. Qassem signals cooperation without external dictates; Qatar reports continued US–Iran messages. No October 7 ground incidents were located at compilation; the October 5–6 baseline remains. War Day 220; CIS maintains Level 5 — High Alert.

72/100 — HIGH, up one point from October 5. A civilian is injured in Shoukin; the cause is provisionally attributed by local reporting. Israeli forces enter Kfar Shuba, while regional airport and shipping tensions continue. War Day 219; CIS maintains Level 5 — High Alert.

71/100 — HIGH, steady overall and down one point against the supplied October 4 baseline. Israeli strikes resume after a quieter night; phosphorus fire is reported in Majdal Zoun. October 20 talks remain a reported date. War Day 218; CIS maintains Level 5 — High Alert.

Proposed analyst estimate: 73/100 (HIGH), up one point from the October 3 estimate. Shelling near journalists in Mayfadoun and bombardment in Mansouri sustain southern exposure. War Day 217; reporting cutoff 19:30 Beirut time. Unverified claims and retained baselines are identified.

Proposed analyst estimate: 72/100 (HIGH), up two points from October 2. Houla school demolition, southern strikes and Mansouri blasts sustain high alert. War Day 216; sources through 20:07 Beirut time. Retained regional baselines are identified in the full report.

STEADY — 70/100 (HIGH), down one point from October 1. PM Salam visits Nabatieh as shelling and demolitions continue in the south. A tanker is hit in Hormuz; Iran has not publicly answered the US proposal. CIS maintains Level 5 — High Alert.