🛡️ CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™
Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Conflict Day 170 · Truce Day 59 · Methodology v3.0 · Coding Manual v3.1
OVERALL INDEX: 79/100
TREND: ⬇️ EASING BY DECAY, BAND FALLS TO HIGH — The national alert level reads 79/100 HIGH, set by Nabatieh and down six points from 85 as Saturday's mass-casualty day ages out of the seven-day window. The band change from CRITICAL to HIGH is arithmetic, not improvement: four southern localities — Majdal Zoun, Mansouri, Haddatha and Baraachit — were shelled early Tuesday, with no casualties reported at the time of compilation. The US–Iran ceasefire lapsed Monday and a projectile reportedly struck a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, a regional deterioration that does not enter the Lebanon score but remains the largest variable bearing on Lebanese conditions this week. No governorate reads CRITICAL, one HIGH, one MEDIUM, three LOW and four MINIMAL; confidence reads LOW across all nine.
TIER 1 — PUBLIC EDITION
🟠 NATIONAL ALERT LEVEL: 79/100 — HIGH
Driven by: Nabatieh · Trend: ⬇️ −6 (85 → 79) · Band change: CRITICAL → HIGH · Confidence: LOW Spread: 0 CRITICAL · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM · 3 LOW · 4 MINIMAL
Governorate Readings
| Governorate | Score | Level | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nabatieh | 79 | 🟠 HIGH | LOW |
| South Lebanon | 45 | 🟡 MEDIUM | LOW |
| Baalbek-Hermel | 24 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Beqaa Valley | 22 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Mount Lebanon | 22 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Beirut | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| Akkar | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| North Lebanon | 18 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 16 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
> ⚠️ The band change does not mean the south is safe. Four localities were shelled this morning — Majdal Zoun, Mansouri, Haddatha and Baraachit. Nabatieh falls below the CRITICAL threshold because Saturday's mass-casualty day is ageing out of the seven-day window, not because conditions have improved. Zone guidance below is unchanged from yesterday.
Shelling across four southern localities; US–Iran ceasefire lapses
- Israeli artillery struck the outskirts of Majdal Zoun early Tuesday, with strikes reported at Mansouri and shelling on the outskirts of Haddatha and Baraachit, according to Lebanese state media. No casualties reported at time of publication.
- The US–Iran ceasefire lapsed Monday. Reporting indicates Washington is not seeking to extend the interim deal, and a projectile has reportedly struck a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz with casualties and damage reported.
- This regional deterioration does not enter the Lebanon score — it is not an incident in Lebanon — but it is the largest variable bearing on Lebanese conditions this week.
🚦 Zone Guidance
| Area | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Majdal Zoun · Mansouri · Haddatha · Baraachit | Avoid entirely — shelled this morning |
| Ali al-Taher Ridge · Roumin · Deir Siriane | Avoid entirely |
| Israeli-controlled security zone (approx. 10 km deep) | Do not approach under any circumstances |
| Nabatieh district — Ansar, Deir al-Zahrani, Nabatieh al-Fawqa and al-Tahta, Kfar Rouman, Harouf, Habboush | Avoid |
| Bint Jbeil district — including Kafra, Kounine–Saf al-Hawa road | Avoid |
| Tyre district — coastal and inland routes south of Sidon | Avoid non-essential travel |
| Wadi al-Saluqi · Ansar–Zarariyeh valley | Avoid |
| Sidon and the coastal route | Passable — continued congestion from displacement traffic |
| Dahiyeh · Bekaa Valley | Elevated caution |
| Beirut · Mount Lebanon · North Lebanon · Akkar · Keserwan-Jbeil | Normal operations; maintain situational awareness |
If you are in or near an affected area
- Do not travel into Nabatieh, Bint Jbeil or southern Tyre districts.
- Treat any morning quiet as provisional. Activity has resumed overnight on four of the last five nights.
- Keep phones charged and agree a family check-in time and a meeting point.
- Identify the lowest interior room in your building, away from windows and glazing.
- Keep identity documents, medication and cash together and ready to move at short notice.
- Verify village-specific claims through official channels before acting — false threat rumours circulated in Tyre district this weekend.
- Follow Civil Defence (125) and Lebanese Red Cross (1760) in preference to social media.
📞 Emergency Contacts
- CIS Security emergency line (active clients): +961-3-539900 — 24/7/365
- CIS general enquiries: +961-3-539900 · info@cissecurity.net · Monday–Friday, 8:00 AM–6:00 PM
- Civil Defence: 125 · Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 · Internal Security Forces: 112
- Lebanese Army — South Lebanon Liaison: +961-8-802-510
- National Mental Health Lifeline: 1564 — free, confidential, 24/7
- US Embassy emergency (overseas citizens services): +1-202-501-4444 · BeirutACS@state.gov
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology · Corrections: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections
Need security cover for a property or site? → https://app.cissecurity.net/request Get the Index in your inbox daily, 8:15 AM → cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/
CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn't Optional — Since 1990
TIER 2 — ANALYST EDITION
⚠️ Revision Notice — REV-2026-003
17 August 2026 · South Lebanon · Published 42 · Revised 45
Yesterday's edition carried no coded incidents for 14 August in South Lebanon governorate. Middle East Eye's live coverage, citing the National News Agency, subsequently established repeated strikes on the wooded areas of Mansouri and Majdal Zoun that day, demolition operations east of Mansouri, machine-gun fire on the Mansouri outskirts, and artillery on the outskirts of both towns.
Coding those incidents raises 17 August's South Lebanon score from 42 to 45. Nabatieh recomputes unchanged at 85 — the same reporting placed an artillery shell at Haddatha in Bint Jbeil district, but at a 0.42 decay weight it does not move the rounded score.
Both figures remain in the archive. Logged at cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections.
1 · Executive Summary
Israeli artillery struck the outskirts of Majdal Zoun in Tyre district early Tuesday, according to Lebanese state media. Earlier, strikes were reported in the town of Mansouri, with shelling on the outskirts of Haddatha and Baraachit, both in Bint Jbeil district. No casualties had been reported at the time of compilation.
The National Alert Level falls six points and crosses from CRITICAL into HIGH.
CIS assessment. This is the first band change since the Index moved to computed scoring, and it requires the plainest possible statement: it is not a safety signal. Four named localities were shelled this morning. The fall is produced by 15 August — eleven killed, nineteen wounded across nine incidents — moving from a 0.56 to a 0.42 decay weight. Today's own activity is real and it is concentrated in exactly the districts CIS has advised avoiding for four days. What has changed is the arithmetic, not the ground.
The methodology behaves this way by design: a seven-day window means a catastrophic day cannot hold the score indefinitely. That is correct for a measure of current conditions. It is also the point at which a reader most needs the number explained rather than merely published.
2 · Today's Activity — A Shift South and West
The four localities shelled this morning sit across two districts:
- Majdal Zoun and Mansouri — Tyre district, South Lebanon governorate
- Haddatha and Baraachit — Bint Jbeil district, Nabatieh governorate
CIS assessment. Since 15 August, CIS's incident log has been dominated by the Ali al-Taher Ridge and the Nabatieh district around it. Today's activity is concentrated instead in the Tyre and Bint Jbeil districts to the south and west, with nothing reported at Ali al-Taher at the time of compilation.
CIS treats this as a shift in the locus of activity, not as evidence that Ali al-Taher has been resolved. Mansouri and Majdal Zoun have been struck repeatedly across recent weeks, and both featured in CIS's 14 August incident set. Whether this represents a broadening of the operating area or a rotation away from the ridge is not determinable from today's reporting, and CIS does not speculate.
3 · Regional Context — Outside Lebanon, Bearing On It
The US–Iran ceasefire lapsed on Monday. Reporting indicates Washington is not seeking to extend the interim deal. A projectile has reportedly struck a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, with casualties and damage reported.
CIS assessment. CIS's sourcing on the Hormuz incident at compilation time consists of headline reporting only, without confirmed detail on attribution, vessel, or casualty figures. CIS reports it as an unresolved development and will not characterise it further until sourcing supports it.
The operational significance for Lebanon is indirect but real. CIS identified the ceasefire lapse as this week's principal variable in yesterday's edition. It has now occurred, and the immediate regional environment has deteriorated rather than stabilised.
None of this scores. It is not an incident in Lebanon, and inventing a mechanism to import it into the number would break the reproducibility the Index depends on. It belongs in planning and in posture — which is why CIS holds Level 5 while the Index falls into HIGH.
4 · Coded Incident Log
18 August 2026 — decay 1.00
| # | Governorate | Location | Category | Confirmation | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Lebanon | Majdal Zoun, Tyre district | Artillery | Reported | 2.4 |
| 2 | South Lebanon | Mansouri, Tyre district | Airstrike | Reported | 3.6 |
| 3 | Nabatieh | Haddatha, Bint Jbeil district | Artillery | Reported | 2.4 |
| 4 | Nabatieh | Baraachit, Bint Jbeil district | Artillery | Reported | 2.4 |
All four rest on National News Agency reporting carried by Middle East Eye. Under coding rule 4.6 that is one originating organisation, not two, so all four code as Reported at ×0.6 rather than Confirmed. Should independent Lebanese or wire confirmation emerge today, these will be recoded and the score revised upward.
Not carried forward: displacement and route disruption in Nabatieh and Sidon scored on 16 and 17 August are not coded today, because no source reported them today. Under coding rule 4.8 a district scores while movement is being reported and stops the day reporting stops — never the day CIS assumes it has continued. This accounts for roughly 13 points of the day's fall and may be an under-count rather than a genuine cessation.
17 August 2026 — decay 0.75
No incidents coded. Yesterday's edition was compiled at 08:00 with nothing confirmed. CIS has found no subsequent reporting of 17 August incidents, but the sweep for the post-compilation period is not complete and this day may be under-coded.
16 August 2026 — decay 0.56
Ten scoring incidents as coded in the 17 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 34.4; South Lebanon subtotal 8.0.
15 August 2026 — decay 0.42
Twenty-three incidents as coded in the 16 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 187.4; South Lebanon subtotal 20.0.
14 August 2026 — decay 0.32
| # | Governorate | Location | Category | Confirmation | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nabatieh | Ali al-Taher Ridge | Airstrike | Confirmed | 6.0 |
| 6 | Nabatieh | Haddatha, Bint Jbeil district | Artillery | Reported | 2.4 |
| 7 | South Lebanon | Mansouri, Majdal Zoun wooded areas | Airstrike ×2 | Reported | 7.2 |
| 8 | South Lebanon | East of Mansouri | Demolition (quantity unstated → 1) | Reported | 1.8 |
| 9 | South Lebanon | Mansouri outskirts | Small-arms fire | Reported | 1.8 |
| 10 | South Lebanon | Majdal Zoun, Mansouri outskirts | Artillery | Reported | 2.4 |
Nabatieh subtotal 8.4; South Lebanon subtotal 13.2.
Logged, not scored
| Governorate | Location | Category | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nabatieh | Ali al-Taher to al-Dabsha; Kafr Rouman outskirts | Airstrikes, 16 August | Unverified — sole source is an outlet affiliated with a party to the wider conflict. Contributes 0.0. Recorded so the exclusion is visible rather than silent. |
9–13 August 2026
Not coded. Under the completeness rule CIS does not estimate an unlogged period; it contributes zero. Today's scores are a floor. Backfilling can raise them, never lower them. Every governorate therefore carries LOW confidence.
5 · Scoring — Full Working
Nabatieh
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 18 August, decay 1.00 | 4.80 |
| 17 August, decay 0.75 | 0.00 |
| 16 August, decay 0.56 (34.40 × 0.56) | 19.26 |
| 15 August, decay 0.42 (187.40 × 0.42) | 78.71 |
| 14 August, decay 0.32 (8.40 × 0.32) | 2.69 |
| 9–13 August | 0.00 — not coded |
| Raw Load L | 105.46 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−105.46/100)) | 48.87 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier (active armed conflict) | 8 |
| Score | 78.87 → 79 🟠 |
South Lebanon
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 18 August, decay 1.00 | 6.00 |
| 17 August, decay 0.75 | 0.00 |
| 16 August, decay 0.56 (8.00 × 0.56) | 4.48 |
| 15 August, decay 0.42 (20.00 × 0.42) | 8.40 |
| 14 August, decay 0.32 (13.20 × 0.32) | 4.22 |
| Raw Load L | 23.10 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−23.10/100)) | 15.47 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier | 8 |
| Score | 45.47 → 45 🟡 |
Remaining seven governorates
No scoring incidents logged, 11–18 August. Activity 0.00. Score = baseline + modifier.
| Governorate | Baseline | Modifier | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baalbek-Hermel | 16 | 8 | 24 🟢 |
| Beqaa Valley | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Mount Lebanon | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Beirut | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| Akkar | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| North Lebanon | 10 | 8 | 18 ⚪ |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 8 | 8 | 16 ⚪ |
Parameters in force (frozen to 14 November 2026): methodology v3.0 · coding manual v3.1 · decay 0.75/day over 7 days · compression K=100 · activity ceiling 75 · fatality 8, injury 2, structure 3 capped at 12, displacement 5/district, route disruption 3 · confirmation multipliers 1.0 / 0.6 / 0.0.
6 · What CIS Is Watching
- Whether the Hormuz incident is attributed, and whether the US–Iran deterioration produces escalation reaching Lebanon.
- Whether today's activity in Tyre and Bint Jbeil districts represents a broadening of the operating area or a rotation away from Ali al-Taher.
- Whether independent confirmation emerges for today's four shelling incidents, which would raise the score.
- Whether displacement from Nabatieh and Bint Jbeil districts has genuinely ceased or has simply stopped being reported.
- Whether Hezbollah claims or continues not to claim the 15 August drone attack.
- Whether the Rome round proceeds on schedule.
7 · CIS Operational Posture
CIS maintains Level 5 — Severe Alert.
The Index has now fallen 13 points across two days and crossed a band threshold. Posture is unchanged. That divergence is at its widest since the methodology went live, and it is deliberate: posture is set by operations management against forward risk to client sites, not derived from the score. Shelling continues in the districts where CIS advises avoidance, the region deteriorated overnight, and neither of those facts is fully captured by a seven-day decay window.
(CIS Posture Levels 1–5: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#posture)
Practical effect for active client sites:
- Continuous supervisor contact for all sites in Nabatieh and South Lebanon governorates, now extended to Tyre district sites given today's shift.
- Reinforcement standby maintained under the 24/7 emergency line for active clients.
- Clients along the Sidon coastal corridor should continue to plan for congestion affecting staff movement, deliveries and shift changeovers.
- Route and access planning reviewed daily for all southern sites.
- New deployments continue within 24 hours of contract confirmation.
8 · Assessment
The Index crossed out of CRITICAL this morning while artillery was landing on four southern localities. Both of those things are true, and holding them together is the whole test of whether this instrument is honest.
Saturday was the deadliest day since the truce. Its weight in the seven-day window has now dropped to 0.42, and by Friday it will be gone. That is correct behaviour for a measure of current conditions — a catastrophic day should not hold a score elevated indefinitely, or the number stops carrying information. But it means that on a morning when four localities were shelled, the arithmetic pulled the headline down.
CIS has stated this at the top of the public edition rather than in the analysis, because a subscriber who reads 79 as an improvement has been misled by a correct calculation.
Two things genuinely changed. Activity moved south and west, into Tyre and Bint Jbeil districts, with nothing reported at Ali al-Taher at compilation. And the regional environment deteriorated: the US–Iran ceasefire lapsed, Washington signalled no extension, and a vessel was reportedly struck in the Strait of Hormuz. None of that enters the Lebanon number, and CIS will not invent a mechanism to import it, because reproducibility is what the Index is for. It enters posture instead, which is why CIS holds Level 5 with the Index at HIGH.
For Beirut, Mount Lebanon, North Lebanon, Akkar and Keserwan-Jbeil, conditions remain calm and normal operations continue. Four governorates read MINIMAL. The severity remains concentrated in the south, and CIS states that plainly so clients can plan against reality rather than against alarm.
9 · Sources
Tier 1 — wire services and established international outlets Bloomberg (US–Iran ceasefire expiry; Washington's economic measures; casualty totals for 15 August).
Tier 2 — regional and national outlets Middle East Eye live coverage, 18 August (Majdal Zoun, Mansouri, Haddatha, Baraachit; Hormuz incident headline; 14 August Mansouri and Majdal Zoun activity) · Lebanese National News Agency, via Middle East Eye (all four of today's incidents; 14 August incident set) · The Times of Israel (15 August context; ceasefire date reference) · The Japan Times (IDF statement on Abu Hassan Alaa).
Note under coding rule 4.6: NNA carried by Middle East Eye is one originating organisation. All four of today's incidents are coded Reported on that basis.
Tier 3 — real-time monitoring and single-source, indicative only Hormuz vessel incident — headline reporting only at compilation, attribution and detail unconfirmed.
Logged but not scored Airstrikes reported between Ali al-Taher and al-Dabsha and on the Kafr Rouman outskirts on 16 August. The sole source is an outlet affiliated with a party to the wider conflict. Under CIS's source policy this is logged Unverified, contributing zero. Recorded here so the exclusion is visible rather than silent.
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology > Source register: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#sources > Corrections and revisions: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections > To challenge a score: info@cissecurity.net with the date, governorate and basis.
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About CIS Security
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CIS Lebanon Security Index™ · Tuesday, 18 August 2026 · Conflict Day 170 · Truce Day 59 Methodology v3.0 · Coding Manual v3.1 · Compiled in Beirut CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn't Optional — Since 1990
