🛡️ CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™
Monday, August 17, 2026
Conflict Day 169 · Truce Day 58 · Methodology v3.0 · Coding Manual v3.1
OVERALL INDEX: 85/100
TREND: ⬇️ EASING BY DECAY, STILL CRITICAL — The national alert level reads 85/100 CRITICAL, set by Nabatieh and down seven points from 92 as the weekend's mass-casualty load ages out of the seven-day window. No incidents had been confirmed anywhere in Lebanon at the time of compilation this morning, so the fall is decay rather than assessed improvement. Israeli forces concentrated strikes on the heights around Ali al-Taher overnight into Sunday and a small drone dropped a stun grenade at Kafra in Bint Jbeil district, causing no casualties, while Hezbollah has not claimed the drone attack Israel cites as the trigger for Saturday's strikes. The US–Iran ceasefire is due to expire today, with Washington preparing further economic measures against Iran — the largest single variable affecting Lebanese conditions this week, and one originating outside Lebanon. One of nine governorates reads CRITICAL, one MEDIUM, three LOW and four MINIMAL; confidence reads LOW across all nine.
TIER 1 — PUBLIC EDITION
🔴 NATIONAL ALERT LEVEL: 85/100 — CRITICAL
Driven by: Nabatieh · Trend: ⬇️ −7 (92 → 85) · Confidence: LOW Spread: 1 of 9 governorates CRITICAL · 1 MEDIUM · 3 LOW · 4 MINIMAL
Governorate Readings
| Governorate | Score | Level | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nabatieh | 85 | 🔴 CRITICAL | LOW |
| South Lebanon | 42 | 🟡 MEDIUM | LOW |
| Baalbek-Hermel | 24 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Beqaa Valley | 22 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Mount Lebanon | 22 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Beirut | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| Akkar | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| North Lebanon | 18 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 16 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
> The seven-point fall is decay, not improvement. No incidents had been confirmed anywhere in Lebanon at the time of compilation this morning. The score reflects the weekend's events ageing out of the seven-day window. The day is not over, and conditions have not been assessed as having improved.
No confirmed incidents this morning; US–Iran ceasefire lapses today
- Israeli forces concentrated strikes on the heights around Ali al-Taher overnight into Sunday, using explosives against the ridge itself. A small drone dropped a stun grenade at Kafra in Bint Jbeil district, causing no casualties.
- Israel stated on Sunday it would strike again if threatened. Hezbollah has not claimed the drone attack that Israel cites as the trigger for Saturday's strikes.
- The US–Iran ceasefire is due to expire today, with Washington preparing further economic measures against Iran. This is the largest single variable affecting Lebanese conditions this week and it originates outside Lebanon.
🚦 Zone Guidance
| Area | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Ali al-Taher Ridge · Roumin · Deir Siriane | Avoid entirely |
| Israeli-controlled security zone (approx. 10 km deep) | Do not approach under any circumstances |
| Nabatieh district — Ansar, Deir al-Zahrani, Nabatieh al-Fawqa and al-Tahta, Kfar Rouman, Harouf, Habboush | Avoid |
| Bint Jbeil district — including Kafra, Kounine–Saf al-Hawa road | Avoid |
| Wadi al-Saluqi · al-Mansouri · Ansar–Zarariyeh valley | Avoid |
| Sidon and the coastal route | Passable — continued congestion from displacement traffic |
| Dahiyeh | Elevated caution — large public gatherings following Sunday's funerals |
| Bekaa Valley | Elevated caution |
| Beirut · Mount Lebanon · North Lebanon · Akkar · Keserwan-Jbeil | Normal operations; maintain situational awareness |
If you are in or near an affected area
- Do not travel into Nabatieh or Bint Jbeil districts. If you are leaving, use the coastal route and allow for delays.
- Treat this morning's quiet as provisional. Weekend patterns have seen activity resume overnight.
- Keep phones charged and agree a family check-in time and a meeting point.
- Identify the lowest interior room in your building, away from windows and glazing.
- Keep identity documents, medication and cash together and ready to move at short notice.
- Verify claims about specific villages through official channels — at least one municipality reported false threat rumours circulating this weekend.
- Follow Civil Defence (125) and Lebanese Red Cross (1760) in preference to social media.
📞 Emergency Contacts
- CIS Security emergency line (active clients): +961-3-539900 — 24/7/365
- CIS general enquiries: +961-3-539900 · info@cissecurity.net · Monday–Friday, 8:00 AM–6:00 PM
- Civil Defence: 125 · Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 · Internal Security Forces: 112
- Lebanese Army — South Lebanon Liaison: +961-8-802-510
- National Mental Health Lifeline: 1564 — free, confidential, 24/7
- US Embassy emergency (overseas citizens services): +1-202-501-4444 · BeirutACS@state.gov
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology · Corrections: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections
Need security cover for a property or site? → https://app.cissecurity.net/request Get the Index in your inbox daily, 8:15 AM → cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/
CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn't Optional — Since 1990
TIER 2 — ANALYST EDITION
⚠️ Revision Notice — REV-2026-002
16 August 2026 · Nabatieh · Published 91 · Revised 92
Sunday's edition coded the overnight Ali al-Taher activity partly as Reported, because CIS's source set at 08:00 consisted of Israeli outlets relaying Lebanese media without independent Lebanese confirmation.
L'Orient Today's correspondent in southern Lebanon subsequently reported the overnight concentration directly, and the National News Agency reported that Israeli troops used explosives against Ali al-Taher Hill near Nabatieh al-Fawqa. Two further incidents were established: the explosive demolition on the ridge itself, and a small drone dropping a stun grenade at Kafra in Bint Jbeil district, without casualties.
Recoding raises Sunday's Nabatieh score from 91 to 92. Both figures remain in the archive. Logged at cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections.
1 · Executive Summary
No incidents had been confirmed anywhere in Lebanon at the time of compilation this morning.
Today's seven-point fall in the National Alert Level is produced entirely by time decay: Saturday's mass-casualty load moves from a 0.75 weighting to 0.56, and Sunday's activity moves to 0.75. Nothing in today's reading reflects an assessed improvement in conditions.
CIS assessment. This is the behaviour the decay model is designed to produce, and it requires stating plainly rather than being allowed to read as good news. Across the preceding three days, activity resumed overnight on each occasion, and the 08:00 compilation window closes before the period in which strikes have most often been reported. Clients should treat this morning's figure as the floor of the day, not its ceiling.
2 · Hezbollah Has Not Claimed the Drone Attack
Israel's stated basis for Saturday's strikes is a Hezbollah explosive drone attack at approximately 02:30 on 15 August that seriously wounded an Israeli officer and two soldiers of the Combat Engineering Corps' Yahalom unit near the Ali al-Taher Ridge.
As of compilation, Hezbollah has not claimed that attack.
CIS assessment. CIS records this as an unresolved fact of the record and draws no inference from it. It is noted because Israel's stated casus belli remains unacknowledged by the party to which it is attributed, and because a claim or a continued absence of one is a meaningful indicator for the coming days. CIS does not speculate as to why the attack is unclaimed.
3 · The US Position Has Hardened
Three developments over the weekend point in the same direction:
- The US State Department stated following Saturday's strikes that Hezbollah "bears full responsibility for Israel's presence" in Lebanon.
- Haaretz reported that the sharp escalation prompted US requests for clarification from Israel, and that after those were provided the administration accepted Israel's account of Hezbollah's actions.
- The US–Iran ceasefire is due to lapse today, with Washington preparing further economic measures against Iran.
CIS assessment. CIS's 16 August edition identified the reported requirement for a US green light as a constraint on any Israeli operation to seize Ali al-Taher. The weekend's developments indicate that constraint is weaker than it appeared, not stronger. CIS makes no judgment on the merits of any government's position and notes only the operational implication: the external brake CIS had identified is, on current reporting, less likely to apply.
The ceasefire lapse is exogenous to Lebanon but material to it. Hezbollah is described by all parties as Iranian-aligned, and a deterioration in US–Iran relations has historically preceded broader regional escalation. This is the single largest variable affecting Lebanese conditions this week, and it does not score, because it is not an incident. It belongs in planning, not in the number.
4 · Sunday's Activity
Israeli forces concentrated overnight strikes on the heights of the Nabatieh region, principally the Ali al-Taher ridge, according to L'Orient Today's correspondent in southern Lebanon. The National News Agency reported Israeli troops using explosives against Ali al-Taher Hill near Nabatieh al-Fawqa. Artillery was reported at Roumin and Deir Siriane. Israeli warplanes were reported overflying villages across the south.
A small Israeli drone dropped a stun grenade at Kafra in Bint Jbeil district. No casualties.
Hezbollah held a funeral in Dahiyeh for the family killed at Ansar. Those identified include Ali Samir Hajj Hassan of the Bekaa Valley — whom Israel identified as a commander in the Radwan force — with his wife Zeinab Nassereddine and their four children.
The municipality of Tayr Debba in Tyre district publicly denied circulating social media reports that Israel had threatened a house in the village, urging residents to rely on official sources.
CIS assessment. Two items warrant client attention beyond the strike record. Large public gatherings in Dahiyeh following the funerals create crowd-density risk independent of any strike activity, and CIS has added elevated caution for the area on that basis alone. Separately, the Tayr Debba episode is the second instance this month of false locality-specific threat claims circulating on social media. CIS advises clients to verify any village-specific warning through official channels before acting, and to expect more such claims as tension rises.
5 · Casualty Coding — Stated Openly
All eleven deaths of 15 August are coded civilian in CIS's incident log.
Israel identified two of those killed as Hezbollah commanders — Ali Samir Hajj Hassan at Ansar and Abu Hassan Alaa, also named as Ali Muhammad Fakhr al-Din, at Deir al-Zahrani. Lebanon's Prime Minister Nawaf Salam rejected the characterisation of those killed as military targets.
Under CIS coding rule 4.7, casualties are coded civilian by default and combatant only where status is stated and undisputed. The characterisation is disputed between the parties, so all eleven code as civilian.
CIS assessment. This rule errs toward over-counting civilian casualties in contested cases. That is the correct direction of error for a civilian risk product, and CIS states the rule rather than leaving readers to infer why the figure is what it is. CIS takes no position on the status of any individual killed.
6 · Coded Incident Log
17 August 2026 — decay 1.00
No incidents confirmed at time of compilation. Contribution to today's scores: 0.0
16 August 2026 — decay 0.75
| # | Governorate | Location | Category | Confirmation | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nabatieh | Ali al-Taher Ridge | Airstrike (series, no count → 1) | Confirmed | 6.0 |
| 2 | Nabatieh | Ali al-Taher Hill | Explosive demolition (quantity unstated → 1) | Confirmed | 3.0 |
| 3 | Nabatieh | Roumin | Artillery | Reported | 2.4 |
| 4 | Nabatieh | Deir Siriane | Artillery | Reported | 2.4 |
| 5 | Nabatieh | Kafra, Bint Jbeil district | Explosive device (drone, stun grenade) | Confirmed | 4.0 |
| 6 | Nabatieh | Ali al-Taher Ridge | Ground incursion | Reported | 3.6 |
| 7 | Nabatieh | Nabatieh + Bint Jbeil districts | Mass displacement (2 districts) | Confirmed | 10.0 |
| 8 | Nabatieh | Routes toward Sidon | Route disruption | Confirmed | 3.0 |
| 9 | South Lebanon | Sidon district | Mass displacement (1 district) | Confirmed | 5.0 |
| 10 | South Lebanon | Coastal route | Route disruption | Confirmed | 3.0 |
| — | Nabatieh | Ali al-Taher Ridge | Small arms / incendiary munitions | Unverified | 0.0 |
| — | Mount Lebanon | Dahiyeh | Mass gathering (funerals) | Confirmed | 0.0 — no scoring category |
| — | South Lebanon | Tayr Debba, Tyre district | False threat claim, denied by municipality | Confirmed | 0.0 — no scoring category |
15 August 2026 — decay 0.56
Twenty-three incidents as coded in the 16 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 187.4; South Lebanon subtotal 20.0.
14 August 2026 — decay 0.42
| # | Governorate | Location | Category | Confirmation | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nabatieh | Ali al-Taher Ridge | Airstrike | Confirmed | 6.0 |
9–13 August 2026
Not coded. CIS's v3.1 incident log does not extend behind 14 August. Under the completeness rule CIS does not estimate an unlogged period; it contributes zero. Today's scores are a floor. Backfilling can raise them, never lower them. This is why every governorate carries LOW confidence.
Two incidents known to fall in this window from prior narrative reporting — a major explosion at Zawtar al-Sharqiyeh and machine-gun fire toward Wadi al-Saluqi on 10 August — remain uncoded pending the backfill.
7 · Scoring — Full Working
Nabatieh
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 17 August, decay 1.00 | 0.00 |
| 16 August, decay 0.75 (34.40 × 0.75) | 25.80 |
| 15 August, decay 0.56 (187.40 × 0.56) | 104.94 |
| 14 August, decay 0.42 (6.00 × 0.42) | 2.52 |
| 9–13 August | 0.00 — not coded |
| Raw Load L | 133.26 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−133.26/100)) | 55.22 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier (active armed conflict) | 8 |
| Score | 85.22 → 85 🔴 |
South Lebanon
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 17 August, decay 1.00 | 0.00 |
| 16 August, decay 0.75 (8.00 × 0.75) | 6.00 |
| 15 August, decay 0.56 (20.00 × 0.56) | 11.20 |
| Raw Load L | 17.20 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−17.20/100)) | 11.85 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier | 8 |
| Score | 41.85 → 42 🟡 |
Remaining seven governorates
No scoring incidents logged, 9–17 August. Activity 0.00. Score = baseline + modifier.
| Governorate | Baseline | Modifier | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baalbek-Hermel | 16 | 8 | 24 🟢 |
| Beqaa Valley | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Mount Lebanon | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Beirut | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| Akkar | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| North Lebanon | 10 | 8 | 18 ⚪ |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 8 | 8 | 16 ⚪ |
Parameters in force (frozen to 14 November 2026): methodology v3.0 · coding manual v3.1 · decay 0.75/day over 7 days · compression K=100 · activity ceiling 75 · fatality 8, injury 2, structure 3 capped at 12, displacement 5/district, route disruption 3 · confirmation multipliers 1.0 / 0.6 / 0.0.
8 · Index Drivers
| Driver | Reading | Concentration |
|---|---|---|
| Armed conflict activity | 74 | Nabatieh |
| Displacement & movement disruption | 68 | Nabatieh and Bint Jbeil districts, Sidon corridor |
| Infrastructure & property destruction | 40 | Nabatieh, border villages |
| Crime & opportunistic risk | 36 | Nationwide |
| Civil unrest | 22 | — |
Driver readings are thematic and national in scope with concentration noted. They explain the scores; they do not sum to them.
9 · What CIS Is Watching
- The US–Iran ceasefire lapse today and whether it produces regional escalation reaching Lebanon. Highest-consequence variable this week.
- Whether Hezbollah claims or continues not to claim the 15 August drone attack.
- Whether Israeli activity at Ali al-Taher develops into a ground operation to seize the ridge, given the apparent absence of US restraint.
- Whether activity resumes overnight, as it has on each of the preceding three nights.
- Whether the Rome round proceeds on schedule following the weekend.
- Whether displacement from Nabatieh and Bint Jbeil districts accelerates or begins to reverse.
10 · CIS Operational Posture
CIS maintains Level 5 — Severe Alert.
The Index has fallen seven points. The posture has not changed, and that divergence is deliberate: posture is set by CIS operations management against forward risk to client sites, not derived from the score. Today's fall is decay, and the week's principal risk variable — the ceasefire lapse — is not an incident and does not enter the calculation.
(CIS Posture Levels 1–5 are an internal operational-readiness scale. Definitions: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#posture)
Practical effect for active client sites:
- Continuous supervisor contact for all sites in Nabatieh and South Lebanon governorates.
- Reinforcement standby maintained under the 24/7 emergency line for active clients.
- Clients along the Sidon coastal corridor should continue to plan for displacement-related congestion affecting staff movement, deliveries and shift changeovers.
- Sites near Dahiyeh should account for gathering-related access disruption this week.
- Route and access planning reviewed daily for all southern sites.
- New deployments continue within 24 hours of contract confirmation.
11 · Assessment
The number fell seven points this morning because nothing new was confirmed by 08:00. That is the honest reason, and it is the only reason.
Three of the last three nights have seen activity resume after dark. The compilation window closes before the period in which strikes have most often been reported. A reader who takes 85 as evidence that the weekend has passed would be drawing a conclusion the data does not support, and CIS would rather say so than let a falling number do the talking.
Two things have changed structurally, and both point the wrong way. Israel's stated trigger for Saturday's strikes remains unclaimed by Hezbollah. And the external constraint CIS identified on Sunday — the reported requirement for a US green light before any operation to seize Ali al-Taher — looks weaker after a weekend in which Washington sought clarification, accepted Israel's account, and publicly assigned responsibility to Hezbollah.
Against that, the US–Iran ceasefire lapses today. It does not score, because it is not an incident in Lebanon. It is nonetheless the largest variable bearing on Lebanese conditions this week, and it is the reason CIS holds posture at Level 5 while the Index falls.
For Beirut, Mount Lebanon, North Lebanon, Akkar and Keserwan-Jbeil, conditions remain calm and normal operations continue. Four governorates read MINIMAL. Clients in Dahiyeh should account for large gatherings this week. The severity in this edition remains concentrated in one governorate of nine, and CIS states that plainly so clients can plan against reality rather than against alarm.
12 · Sources
Tier 1 — wire services and established international outlets Bloomberg (US–Iran ceasefire expiry; Washington's economic measures; IDF naming of Abu Hassan Alaa) · Reuters (Health Ministry totals) · Agence France-Presse, via France 24 (weekend casualty reporting; Sidon displacement) · Al Jazeera (Nabatieh district strikes following the deadliest day; Prime Minister Salam's rejection) · CBS News (Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan identification; strike geography).
Note under coding rule 4.6: a single AFP report carried by multiple outlets counts as one source.
Tier 2 — regional and national outlets L'Orient Today live blog, correspondent Mountasser Abdallah (overnight concentration on the Nabatieh heights; Kafra stun grenade; overflights; Dahiyeh funerals and victim identification; Tayr Debba denial; US State Department statement) · Lebanese National News Agency (Israeli troops using explosives at Ali al-Taher Hill) · Haaretz (US requests for clarification and acceptance of Israel's account; Al Mayadeen relay) · The National (alternative wounded figure) · Japan Times (Israeli statement on further strikes).
Tier 3 — real-time monitoring and single-source, indicative only Reported ground activity at Ali al-Taher · Iranian escalation message and Israeli operational-preparation reporting, both single-sourced through Lebanese media.
Logged but not scored Al Mayadeen reporting of machine-gun fire and incendiary munitions at Ali al-Taher. Al Mayadeen is affiliated with a party to the conflict and is the sole source. Logged Unverified, contributing zero. Recorded here so the exclusion is visible rather than silent.
Sourcing note. Sunday's activity is now corroborated by Lebanese sources reporting directly — L'Orient Today's southern correspondent and the National News Agency — rather than by Israeli outlets relaying Lebanese media. This is why several incidents move from Reported to Confirmed and Sunday's score revises upward by one point.
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology > Source register: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#sources > Corrections and revisions: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections > To challenge a score: info@cissecurity.net with the date, governorate and basis.
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About CIS Security
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CIS Lebanon Security Index™ · Monday, 17 August 2026 · Conflict Day 169 · Truce Day 58 Methodology v3.0 · Coding Manual v3.1 · Compiled in Beirut CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn't Optional — Since 1990
