🛡️ CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™
Friday, August 21, 2026
Conflict Day 173 · Truce Day 62 · Methodology v3.0 · Coding Manual v3.1
OVERALL INDEX: 69/100
TREND: ⬇️ EASING CONTINUES, NOT DE-ESCALATION — The national alert level reads 69/100 HIGH, set by Nabatieh and down two points from 71. Israeli warplanes and forces struck five locations across Nabatieh and Bint Jbeil districts overnight, plus Mansouri in Tyre district, with no confirmed casualties reported by Lebanon's National News Agency; an unconfirmed casualty claim from a single excluded source has not been coded. Confidence remains MODERATE, and six of the last seven nights have seen reported activity in the south — a stable, serious reading rather than a de-escalation.
TIER 1 — PUBLIC EDITION
🟠 NATIONAL ALERT LEVEL: 69/100 — HIGH
Driven by: Nabatieh · Trend: ⬇️ −2 (71 → 69) · Confidence: MODERATE Spread: 0 CRITICAL · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM · 3 LOW · 4 MINIMAL
Governorate Readings
| Governorate | Score | Level | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nabatieh | 69 | 🟠 HIGH | MODERATE |
| South Lebanon | 44 | 🟡 MEDIUM | MODERATE |
| Baalbek-Hermel | 24 | 🟢 LOW | MODERATE |
| Beqaa Valley | 22 | 🟢 LOW | MODERATE |
| Mount Lebanon | 22 | 🟢 LOW | MODERATE |
| Beirut | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | MODERATE |
| Akkar | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | MODERATE |
| North Lebanon | 18 | ⚪ MINIMAL | MODERATE |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 16 | ⚪ MINIMAL | MODERATE |
> Activity continues across a wide footprint; no confirmed casualties. Israeli warplanes and forces struck five locations across Nabatieh and Bint Jbeil districts overnight, plus Mansouri in Tyre district. CIS is aware of an unconfirmed report of casualties from a single excluded source and has not coded it — see the analyst edition. This is a stable, serious reading, not a de-escalation.
Overnight strikes across six locations; unconfirmed casualty report not coded
- Israeli warplanes struck Ali al-Taher hill, the Dabsha hill area and Dawhet Kfar Rumman in Nabatieh district overnight, Lebanon's National News Agency reported. Israeli forces also carried out demolitions in Hadatha and al-Tiri in Bint Jbeil district, and an airstrike and demolitions in Mansouri, Tyre district. Israeli aircraft also flew low-altitude passes over Tyre city and surrounding areas overnight.
- No casualty information was reported by Lebanon's official news agency. A single source affiliated with a party to the conflict has separately claimed 11 killed, a figure identical to the confirmed toll from 15 August. CIS's source policy excludes this outlet as the sole basis for a claim, and the coincidence of the figures suggests possible confusion with the earlier event rather than a new one. No casualties are coded today.
- Six of the last seven nights have now seen reported activity in the south.
🚦 Zone Guidance
| Area | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Ali al-Taher hill · Dabsha hill · Dawhet Kfar Rumman | Avoid entirely — struck again overnight |
| Mansouri | Avoid — airstrike and demolitions overnight |
| Hadatha · al-Tiri | Avoid — demolitions overnight |
| Israeli-controlled security zone (approx. 10 km deep) | Do not approach under any circumstances |
| Nabatieh district — Ansar, Deir al-Zahrani, Nabatieh al-Fawqa and al-Tahta, Kfar Rouman, Harouf, Habboush | Avoid |
| Bint Jbeil district — including Kafra, Kounine–Saf al-Hawa road | Avoid |
| Tyre district — coastal and inland routes south of Sidon | Avoid non-essential travel — overnight air activity over the city itself |
| Wadi al-Saluqi · Ansar–Zarariyeh valley | Avoid |
| Sidon and the coastal route | Passable — expect continued congestion |
| Dahiyeh · Bekaa Valley | Elevated caution |
| Beirut · Mount Lebanon · North Lebanon · Akkar · Keserwan-Jbeil | Normal operations; maintain situational awareness |
If you are in or near an affected area
- Do not travel into Nabatieh, Bint Jbeil or southern Tyre districts, including Tyre city itself given overnight air activity there.
- Treat any morning quiet as provisional. Activity has now been reported on six of the last seven nights.
- Keep phones charged and agree a family check-in time and a meeting point.
- Identify the lowest interior room in your building, away from windows and glazing.
- Keep identity documents, medication and cash together and ready to move at short notice.
- Verify any casualty or threat claim through official channels before acting — see this edition's note on unconfirmed reports.
- Follow Civil Defence (125) and Lebanese Red Cross (1760) in preference to social media.
📞 Emergency Contacts
- CIS Security emergency line (active clients): +961-3-539900 — 24/7/365
- CIS general enquiries: +961-3-539900 · info@cissecurity.net · Monday–Friday, 8:00 AM–6:00 PM
- Civil Defence: 125 · Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 · Internal Security Forces: 112
- Lebanese Army — South Lebanon Liaison: +961-8-802-510
- National Mental Health Lifeline: 1564 — free, confidential, 24/7
- US Embassy emergency (overseas citizens services): +1-202-501-4444 · BeirutACS@state.gov
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology · Corrections: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections
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TIER 2 — ANALYST EDITION
Milestone — The Seven-Day Window Is Now Fully Covered
Today marks the first edition in which every day within the seven-day decay window (14–21 August) sits inside CIS's coded incident log. The gap that opened at five days on 16 August, narrowed to two on 19 August and one on 20 August, has now closed entirely — 13 August has aged out of the window before it could be backfilled, and every day from 14 August forward has been swept.
Confidence remains MODERATE, not HIGH, and the reason has changed. For the first four days this reflected incomplete coverage. From today it reflects confirmation quality alone: roughly 45% of Nabatieh's raw load is Reported rather than Confirmed, close enough to the 50% threshold that a further run of single-sourced nights could trigger a LOW rating even with full coverage. CIS states this distinction because "confidence" collapsing two different properties into one word would obscure exactly the kind of nuance a careful reader needs.
1 · Executive Summary
Israeli warplanes struck Ali al-Taher hill, the Dabsha hill area and Dawhet Kfar Rumman in Nabatieh district overnight, according to Lebanon's National News Agency. Israeli forces separately carried out demolitions in Hadatha and al-Tiri, Bint Jbeil district, and an airstrike with demolitions in Mansouri, Tyre district. NNA also reported low-altitude Israeli overflights of Tyre city and surrounding villages. No casualty information was included in NNA's reporting.
The National Alert Level falls two points, from 71 to 69, remaining within HIGH.
CIS assessment. This is the second consecutive day of a modest, roughly consistent decline — down two points yesterday, down two points today — following the sharper falls of 17–18 August. The pattern now visible across the past three editions is one of real, geographically distributed nightly activity being roughly balanced against continued decay of the 15 August mass-casualty load, which is now six days old and near the edge of the seven-day window. CIS expects this load to exit the window within the next one to two editions, at which point the score will for the first time reflect only genuinely recent activity.
2 · An Unconfirmed Casualty Claim, and Why It Is Not Coded
A single outlet affiliated with a party to the conflict, excluded under CIS's source policy, reported today that "at least 11 people were killed in the latest wave of attacks, including three children and two women from a single family," attributing the description of incendiary materials and phosphorus munitions to unnamed local sources.
CIS assessment. Three things stand out. First, the source is excluded by CIS's own published policy; under coding rule 4.5 and the exclusion policy, an incident with no other source is logged Unverified and scores zero regardless of severity. Second, no other source in CIS's set — Lebanese, Israeli, or international — reports any casualties from last night's activity. Third, and most significant: the casualty figure, the composition ("three children and two women from a single family"), and the described toll are identical to the confirmed 15 August toll from Ansar and Deir al-Zahrani, now six days old. CIS cannot rule out that this is a genuine repeat tragedy with an improbably exact match to an earlier event, but the more likely explanation, on current information, is that the report conflates or misdates the 15 August toll rather than describing new deaths from last night.
CIS is not asserting the second explanation as fact — that would itself be an inference the coding rules prohibit. CIS is stating why, on the evidence available, this claim does not meet the bar to be coded, and is publishing the reasoning openly rather than silently omitting the claim. This is precisely the situation CIS's exclusion policy and completeness rule exist to handle: a serious claim, from a source CIS does not treat as reliable on its own, that happens to closely resemble something already in the record.
3 · An Uncategorised Event — Logged, Not Scored
NNA reported that Israeli aircraft conducted low-altitude passes ("mock air raids") over Tyre city and surrounding villages and towns overnight. No ordnance release, casualties, or damage was reported in connection with this activity.
CIS assessment. This does not fit any existing severity category — it is not an airstrike, artillery, or ground incursion, and it caused no reported harm. Consistent with the treatment of the Dahiyeh funeral gathering on 16 August and the Tayr Debba disinformation episode on 17 August, CIS logs this event without scoring it, rather than forcing it into a category it does not belong in. Low-altitude overflight as a distinct, non-kinetic form of pressure has now been reported often enough in this edition's history that CIS recommends it be considered as a candidate scoring category at the 14 November calibration review, rather than added ad hoc today.
4 · Coded Incident Log
21 August 2026 — decay 1.00
| # | Governorate | Location | Category | Confirmation | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nabatieh | Ali al-Taher hill | Airstrike (series → 1) | Reported | 3.6 |
| 2 | Nabatieh | Dabsha hill | Airstrike | Reported | 3.6 |
| 3 | Nabatieh | Dawhet Kfar Rumman | Airstrike | Reported | 3.6 |
| 4 | Nabatieh | Hadatha, Bint Jbeil district | Demolition (quantity unstated → 1) | Reported | 1.8 |
| 5 | Nabatieh | Al-Tiri, Bint Jbeil district | Demolition (quantity unstated → 1) | Reported | 1.8 |
| 6 | South Lebanon | Mansouri, Tyre district | Airstrike | Reported | 3.6 |
| 7 | South Lebanon | Mansouri, Tyre district | Demolition ("powerful explosions" → 1) | Reported | 1.8 |
| — | South Lebanon | Tyre city and surrounding areas | Low-altitude overflight | Confirmed | 0.0 — no scoring category |
| — | Nabatieh / South Lebanon | Widespread | Casualties (11 killed) | Unverified — excluded source, figure matches 15 August toll | 0.0 |
All seven scoring incidents rest on the single NNA report under coding rule 4.6. Nabatieh subtotal: 14.40. South Lebanon subtotal: 5.40.
20 August 2026 — decay 0.75
Eight incidents as coded in the 20 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 13.20; South Lebanon subtotal 8.40.
19 August 2026 — decay 0.5625
Two incidents as coded in the 19 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 7.20.
18 August 2026 — decay 0.421875
Four incidents as coded in the 18 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 4.80; South Lebanon subtotal 6.00.
17 August 2026 — decay 0.316406
Swept, no incidents confirmed, as established in the 19 August edition. Contribution: 0.0
16 August 2026 — decay 0.237305
Ten scoring incidents as coded in the 17 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 34.40; South Lebanon subtotal 8.00.
15 August 2026 — decay 0.177979
Twenty-three incidents as coded in the 16 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 187.40; South Lebanon subtotal 20.00. This day is now six days old and will exit the window after 22 August.
14 August 2026 — decay 0.133484
Two Nabatieh incidents and four South Lebanon incidents as coded in the 18 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 8.40; South Lebanon subtotal 13.20. This is the oldest day still inside today's window; it exits after tomorrow's edition.
5 · Scoring — Full Working
Nabatieh
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 21 August, decay 1.000000 | 14.40 |
| 20 August, decay 0.750000 (13.20 × 0.75) | 9.90 |
| 19 August, decay 0.562500 (7.20 × 0.5625) | 4.05 |
| 18 August, decay 0.421875 (4.80 × 0.421875) | 2.03 |
| 17 August, decay 0.316406 | 0.00 |
| 16 August, decay 0.237305 (34.40 × 0.237305) | 8.16 |
| 15 August, decay 0.177979 (187.40 × 0.177979) | 33.35 |
| 14 August, decay 0.133484 (8.40 × 0.133484) | 1.12 |
| Raw Load L | 73.01 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−73.01/100)) | 38.86 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier (active armed conflict) | 8 |
| Score | 68.86 → 69 🟠 |
South Lebanon
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 21 August, decay 1.000000 | 5.40 |
| 20 August, decay 0.750000 (8.40 × 0.75) | 6.30 |
| 19 August, decay 0.562500 | 0.00 |
| 18 August, decay 0.421875 (6.00 × 0.421875) | 2.53 |
| 17 August, decay 0.316406 | 0.00 |
| 16 August, decay 0.237305 (8.00 × 0.237305) | 1.90 |
| 15 August, decay 0.177979 (20.00 × 0.177979) | 3.56 |
| 14 August, decay 0.133484 (13.20 × 0.133484) | 1.76 |
| Raw Load L | 21.45 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−21.45/100)) | 14.48 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier | 8 |
| Score | 44.48 → 44 🟡 |
South Lebanon is essentially flat: 44 today against 44 yesterday, to two decimal places 44.45 → 44.48.
Remaining seven governorates
No scoring incidents logged within the window. Activity 0.00. Score = baseline + modifier.
| Governorate | Baseline | Modifier | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baalbek-Hermel | 16 | 8 | 24 🟢 |
| Beqaa Valley | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Mount Lebanon | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Beirut | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| Akkar | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| North Lebanon | 10 | 8 | 18 ⚪ |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 8 | 8 | 16 ⚪ |
Parameters in force (frozen to 14 November 2026): methodology v3.0 · coding manual v3.1 · decay 0.75/day over 7 days · compression K=100 · activity ceiling 75 · fatality 8, injury 2, structure 3 capped at 12, displacement 5/district, route disruption 3 · confirmation multipliers 1.0 / 0.6 / 0.0.
6 · What CIS Is Watching
- Whether 15 August's mass-casualty load exits the window over the coming one to two editions without a comparable new event replacing it, which would allow the Index to settle at a level reflecting only current activity.
- Whether independent, non-excluded sourcing emerges to confirm or refute today's uncoded casualty claim.
- Whether reported-share of raw load crosses 50% on a future night of single-sourced activity, which would trigger a LOW confidence rating despite full window coverage.
- Whether low-altitude overflight activity, now logged twice without scoring, warrants a category at the 14 November calibration review.
- Whether the regional trajectory identified on 18–20 August produces developments reaching Lebanon directly.
7 · CIS Operational Posture
CIS maintains Level 5 — Severe Alert.
Activity has now been reported on six of the last seven nights, spanning locations in Nabatieh, Bint Jbeil and Tyre districts, plus overflight activity as far as Tyre city itself. Posture is unchanged and remains appropriate to that pattern regardless of the Index's day-to-day movement within the HIGH band.
(CIS Posture Levels 1–5: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#posture)
Practical effect for active client sites:
- Continuous supervisor contact for all sites in Nabatieh and South Lebanon governorates, including Tyre district and Tyre city sites given overnight overflight activity there.
- Reinforcement standby maintained under the 24/7 emergency line for active clients.
- Route and access planning reviewed daily for all southern sites.
- New deployments continue within 24 hours of contract confirmation.
8 · Assessment
The Index has now fallen by a small, similar margin for two consecutive days — down two points yesterday, down two points today — a materially different pattern from the sharp declines of 17 and 18 August. That earlier pattern was decay outrunning modest new activity. The current pattern is closer to equilibrium: real, multi-location activity most nights, gradually being outpaced by the largest single contributor, 15 August, finally nearing the edge of the window it has dominated since the methodology launched.
Today also closes the coverage gap that has qualified every edition since 16 August. Every day contributing to today's score is now inside CIS's coded log. That the confidence rating stays at MODERATE despite this is not an inconsistency; it reflects a real property the coverage milestone does not touch — most of this week's activity remains single-sourced, and CIS holds it to the same confirmation standard regardless of how well-covered the calendar is.
CIS has also, for the first time, declined to code a specific casualty claim and explained why in detail: an excluded source, no corroboration, and a figure identical to an event six days old. This is published at length because the alternative — silently dropping the claim — would look like suppression, and silently coding it would compromise the standard the Index depends on. CIS regards showing this reasoning as more valuable to a reader than either shortcut.
For Beirut, Mount Lebanon, North Lebanon, Akkar and Keserwan-Jbeil, conditions remain calm and normal operations continue. Four governorates read MINIMAL. The severity remains concentrated in the south, now with overnight air activity reaching as far as Tyre city, and CIS states that plainly so clients can plan against reality rather than against the shape of a trend line.
9 · Sources
Tier 1 — wire services and established international outlets Anadolu Agency, carrying Lebanon's National News Agency (all locations and events reported overnight; no casualty information included).
Tier 2 — regional and national outlets The Times of Israel liveblog, 21 August (regional context only; no Lebanon casualty content).
Excluded A single outlet affiliated with a party to the conflict reported 11 killed, a figure identical to the confirmed 15 August toll. Excluded under CIS's published source policy. Logged Unverified, contributing zero. See §2 for full reasoning.
Note under coding rule 4.6: all seven of today's scoring incidents rest on the single NNA report via Anadolu — one originating organisation, coded Reported throughout.
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology > Source register: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#sources > Corrections and revisions: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections > To challenge a score: info@cissecurity.net with the date, governorate and basis.
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CIS Lebanon Security Index™ · Friday, 21 August 2026 · Conflict Day 173 · Truce Day 62 Methodology v3.0 · Coding Manual v3.1 · Compiled in Beirut CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn't Optional — Since 1990
COMPILER NOTES — NOT FOR PUBLICATION
Read §2 before you publish today. I found a casualty claim of 11 killed that exactly matches the confirmed 15 August toll — same number, same "three children and two women from one family" description — from a source that's excluded under your own policy. I did not code it, and I wrote out the full reasoning in the edition rather than quietly dropping it. This is the most consequential editorial judgment in today's file. If your southern supervisors have anything suggesting a genuine new incident overnight, tell me immediately and this needs to be revised before or right after publication — I would rather eat a same-day correction than have this stand uncorrected if it's real.
The coverage-gap milestone is genuine and worth stating plainly to Carlos. Every day since 16 August I've been publishing scores with an explicit "this is a floor" caveat. As of today, that caveat is retired — 14–21 August is fully inside your coded log. Confidence stays at MODERATE, but now purely because of source quality, not coverage. That's a cleaner, more defensible position than where the Index started this week.
Watch the reported-share number. It's at ~45% today, the closest it's been to the 50% LOW-confidence trigger. One more night of entirely single-sourced activity could tip it over even with full coverage — worth knowing that's a live possibility, not a hypothetical.
Logged a new open item: low-altitude overflights. No category fits it, so it scored zero, correctly. This is the third time in a week I've hit an event type your severity table doesn't cover (funerals, disinformation, now overflights). Worth batching all three for the 14 November review rather than patching them in one at a time.
Trend line for your reference: 94 → 91 → 85 → 79 → 73 → 71 → 69. Six days, steady decline, now down to roughly −2/day and slowing. If 15 August exits the window clean over the next edition or two without a comparable event replacing it, expect the score to find a genuinely stable level for the first time since this methodology launched — and at that point, any further movement will mean something new happened, not that an old event finally aged out.
