🛡️ CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™
Saturday, August 22, 2026
Conflict Day 174 · Truce Day 63 · Methodology v3.0 · Coding Manual v3.1
OVERALL INDEX: 64/100
TREND: ⬇️ TENTATIVE EASING ON A REVISED BASIS — The national alert level reads 64/100 HIGH, set by Nabatieh and down eight points on a revised basis. CIS's source sweep found no confidently dated new incidents for the night of 21–22 August, while fuller reporting on the night of 19 August established additional strike and demolition locations that revise Nabatieh's 19 August score from 73 to 78 and South Lebanon's from 42 to 45, carrying through 20 and 21 August. Confidence remains MODERATE and today's reading sits close to the boundary with MEDIUM — treat this as a genuine easing, not a certainty.
TIER 1 — PUBLIC EDITION
🟠 NATIONAL ALERT LEVEL: 64/100 — HIGH
Driven by: Nabatieh · Trend: ⬇️ −8 (72 → 64, revised basis — see note) · Confidence: MODERATE Spread: 0 CRITICAL · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM · 3 LOW · 4 MINIMAL
Governorate Readings
| Governorate | Score | Level | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nabatieh | 64 | 🟠 HIGH | MODERATE |
| South Lebanon | 42 | 🟡 MEDIUM | MODERATE |
| Baalbek-Hermel | 24 | 🟢 LOW | MODERATE |
| Beqaa Valley | 22 | 🟢 LOW | MODERATE |
| Mount Lebanon | 22 | 🟢 LOW | MODERATE |
| Beirut | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | MODERATE |
| Akkar | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | MODERATE |
| North Lebanon | 18 | ⚪ MINIMAL | MODERATE |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 16 | ⚪ MINIMAL | MODERATE |
> ⚠️ Important: recent days' published scores have been revised upward. Fuller reporting on the night of 19 August established significantly more activity than was known at the time. Nabatieh's 19–21 August scores are all revised higher as a result — see the analyst edition. Today's own reading of 64 reflects no newly confirmed activity overnight and sits close to the boundary with MEDIUM; treat this as a genuine easing, not a certainty.
No newly confirmed activity overnight; three prior days revised upward
- CIS's source sweep found no confidently dated new incidents for the night of 21–22 August at the time of compilation.
- Separately, fuller reporting on the night of 19 August established several additional strike and demolition locations beyond what was known when that edition published — Wadi Zebqine, a house in Nabatieh al-Fawqa, Deir Siryan, Majdal Zoun, and corroborated activity at Hadatha and Mansouri. Nabatieh's score for 19 August revises from 73 to 78; South Lebanon's from 42 to 45. Because those days remained inside the decay window, 20 and 21 August also revise.
- With this correction applied, today's reading of 64 represents a genuine, if still tentative, easing from the past week's pattern.
🚦 Zone Guidance
| Area | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Ali al-Taher hill · Dabsha/Doha Kfar Rumman area | Avoid entirely — struck repeatedly over the past week |
| Wadi Zebqine · Deir Siryan · Nabatieh al-Fawqa | Avoid — struck 19 August |
| Mansouri · Majdal Zoun | Avoid — struck repeatedly this week |
| Hadatha · al-Tiri | Avoid |
| Israeli-controlled security zone (approx. 10 km deep) | Do not approach under any circumstances |
| Nabatieh district — Ansar, Deir al-Zahrani, Kfar Rouman, Harouf, Habboush | Avoid |
| Bint Jbeil district | Avoid |
| Tyre district — routes south of Sidon | Avoid non-essential travel |
| Sidon and the coastal route | Passable — expect continued congestion |
| Dahiyeh · Bekaa Valley | Elevated caution |
| Beirut · Mount Lebanon · North Lebanon · Akkar · Keserwan-Jbeil | Normal operations; maintain situational awareness |
If you are in or near an affected area
- Do not travel into Nabatieh, Bint Jbeil or southern Tyre districts.
- Treat any quiet period as provisional — this week has shown activity can resume without warning, and today's easier reading follows a week where earlier scores understated the true picture.
- Keep phones charged and agree a family check-in time and a meeting point.
- Identify the lowest interior room in your building, away from windows and glazing.
- Keep identity documents, medication and cash together and ready to move at short notice.
- Verify any casualty or threat claim through official channels before acting.
- Follow Civil Defence (125) and Lebanese Red Cross (1760) in preference to social media.
📞 Emergency Contacts
- CIS Security emergency line (active clients): +961-3-539900 — 24/7/365
- CIS general enquiries: +961-3-539900 · info@cissecurity.net · Monday–Friday, 8:00 AM–6:00 PM
- Civil Defence: 125 · Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 · Internal Security Forces: 112
- Lebanese Army — South Lebanon Liaison: +961-8-802-510
- National Mental Health Lifeline: 1564 — free, confidential, 24/7
- US Embassy emergency (overseas citizens services): +1-202-501-4444 · BeirutACS@state.gov
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology · Corrections: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections
Need security cover for a property or site? → https://app.cissecurity.net/request Get the Index in your inbox daily, 8:15 AM → cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/
CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn't Optional — Since 1990
TIER 2 — ANALYST EDITION
⚠️ Revision Notice — REV-2026-004 (with cascading effects REV-2026-005, REV-2026-006)
19 August 2026 · Nabatieh · Published 73 · Revised 78. 19 August 2026 · South Lebanon · Published 42 · Revised 45.
The 19 August edition coded only two incidents for that night — a single, no-count-stated airstrike at Ali al-Taher Ridge and one at Kfar Rumman — both Reported on a single Israeli-outlet relay chain, reflecting the sourcing available at 08:00 that morning.
Subsequent research located two further, independently reported descriptions of that night's activity: Naharnet's own account, and a separate account attributed to Lebanon's National News Agency. Together they establish a materially larger incident set: strikes and shelling at the outskirts of Wadi Zebqine, a house struck in Nabatieh al-Fawqa, an airstrike near Deir Siryan, artillery on Majdal Zoun, and — corroborated by both independent accounts — demolitions at Hadatha and at Mansouri. Under coding rule 4.6, the Hadatha and Mansouri incidents now meet the Confirmed bar (two distinct organisations); the remainder, each resting on a single account, are coded Reported.
This is a materially larger revision than any issued so far, and it demonstrates exactly why CIS retains superseded incident data and never estimates a period as complete based on same-morning sourcing alone. The 19 August edition was compiled correctly from what was known at 08:00 that day. It was, as it turned out, substantially incomplete.
Cascading effect. Because 19 August remained inside the seven-day decay window on 20 and 21 August, both of those published scores are also revised:
| Date | Governorate | Published | Revised |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Aug | Nabatieh | 73 | 78 |
| 19 Aug | South Lebanon | 42 | 45 |
| 20 Aug | Nabatieh | 71 | 74 |
| 20 Aug | South Lebanon | 44 | 47 |
| 21 Aug | Nabatieh | 69 | 72 |
| 21 Aug | South Lebanon | 44 | 46 |
All six original figures remain permanently in the archive alongside the revised figures. Logged as REV-2026-004 (19 Aug, substantive), REV-2026-005 (20 Aug), REV-2026-006 (21 Aug) — the latter two mechanical propagations of the first — at cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections.
Also not scored, both nights: flares dropped over Tyre and Bint Jbeil, reported alongside the 19 August strikes. As with low-altitude overflights on 21 August, no existing category fits a flare drop with no reported ordnance effect. Logged, not scored, added to the list of candidate categories for the 14 November calibration review.
1 · Executive Summary
CIS's source sweep for the night of 21–22 August found no confidently dated new incidents at the time of compilation. Separately and more significantly, further reporting on the night of 19 August established substantially more activity than was captured in that day's edition, triggering the revision above.
With the revision applied, the National Alert Level for today reads 64 — down eight points from the revised 21 August figure of 72, and the lowest reading since the methodology launched on 16 August.
CIS assessment. Two distinct things are happening in this edition and they should not be conflated. First, today's own contribution to the score is zero — no new activity was confirmed overnight, which is itself a genuine and welcome data point after a week of near-continuous nightly strikes. Second, the 15 August mass-casualty load — now eight days old — has fully exited the seven-day window for the first time. Both effects push the score down together. CIS regards today's reading as a real easing on current information, while noting plainly that this week's own experience is a reason for caution: the 19 August score was understated for three consecutive editions before fuller reporting caught up, and CIS cannot rule out the same pattern applying to today's apparent quiet.
2 · Why This Revision Is Being Published in Full
CIS is choosing to show the complete mechanics of this revision — the original incidents, the new incidents, the source reasoning, and the exact cascading recalculation — rather than simply posting corrected numbers.
CIS assessment. A reader who saw the Index fall from 73 to 71 to 69 across three consecutive mornings, and now sees those same three days retroactively read 78, 74 and 72, is owed an explanation of why, not just a note that a correction occurred. The explanation is straightforward and not a failure of the system: same-morning compilation is structurally limited by what has been reported by 08:00, and this week's reporting environment has repeatedly filled in a fuller picture over the following one to two days. The corrections register exists precisely so that the record — not just today's headline — reflects the best available information. CIS regards a visible, explained, six-figure revision as evidence the methodology is working as designed, not as evidence it has failed.
3 · Today's Sweep
No incident meeting CIS's coding threshold was confidently dated to the night of 21–22 August at compilation time. This is recorded as a completed sweep with a genuine zero, consistent with the treatment of 17 August.
CIS assessment. Given this week's pattern — where the fullest account of a night's activity has sometimes taken two to three days to emerge — CIS flags this zero as provisional in a stronger sense than usual. It is coded honestly as zero because that is what the completeness rule requires, but readers should not treat today's apparent lull with more confidence than the past week's experience warrants.
4 · Coded Incident Log
22 August 2026 — decay 1.00
No incidents confirmed at time of compilation. Contribution: 0.0
21 August 2026 — decay 0.75
Seven scoring incidents as coded in the 21 August edition (unrevised). Nabatieh subtotal 14.40; South Lebanon subtotal 5.40.
20 August 2026 — decay 0.5625
Eight incidents as coded in the 20 August edition (unrevised). Nabatieh subtotal 13.20; South Lebanon subtotal 8.40.
19 August 2026 — decay 0.421875 — REVISED (REV-2026-004)
| # | Governorate | Location | Category | Confirmation | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nabatieh | Ali al-Taher hill | Airstrike (series → 1) | Confirmed (2 independent accounts) | 6.0 |
| 2 | Nabatieh | Doha Kfar Rumman | Airstrike | Reported | 3.6 |
| 3 | Nabatieh | Wadi Zebqine outskirts | Artillery | Reported | 2.4 |
| 4 | Nabatieh | House, Nabatieh al-Fawqa | Airstrike | Reported | 3.6 |
| 5 | Nabatieh | Deir Siryan outskirts | Airstrike | Reported | 3.6 |
| 6 | Nabatieh | Hadatha | Demolition (quantity unstated → 1) | Confirmed (2 independent accounts) | 3.0 |
| 7 | South Lebanon | Mansouri | Demolition (quantity unstated → 1) | Confirmed (2 independent accounts) | 3.0 |
| 8 | South Lebanon | Majdal Zoun | Artillery | Reported | 2.4 |
| — | Tyre · Bint Jbeil | — | Flares dropped | Confirmed | 0.0 — no scoring category |
Nabatieh subtotal: 22.20 (previously 7.20). South Lebanon subtotal: 5.40 (previously 0.00).
18 August 2026 — decay 0.316406
Four incidents as coded in the 18 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 4.80; South Lebanon subtotal 6.00.
17 August 2026 — decay 0.237305
Swept, no incidents confirmed. Contribution: 0.0
16 August 2026 — decay 0.177979
Ten scoring incidents as coded in the 17 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 34.40; South Lebanon subtotal 8.00.
15 August 2026 — decay 0.133484
Twenty-three incidents as coded in the 16 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 187.40; South Lebanon subtotal 20.00. This is this day's final contribution — it exits the seven-day window entirely after today.
14 August 2026
Aged out of the window as of today. No longer contributes at any weight.
5 · Scoring — Full Working
Nabatieh
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 22 August, decay 1.000000 | 0.00 |
| 21 August, decay 0.750000 (14.40 × 0.75) | 10.80 |
| 20 August, decay 0.562500 (13.20 × 0.5625) | 7.43 |
| 19 August, decay 0.421875 (22.20 × 0.421875, revised) | 9.37 |
| 18 August, decay 0.316406 (4.80 × 0.316406) | 1.52 |
| 17 August, decay 0.237305 | 0.00 |
| 16 August, decay 0.177979 (34.40 × 0.177979) | 6.12 |
| 15 August, decay 0.133484 (187.40 × 0.133484) | 25.01 |
| Raw Load L | 60.25 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−60.25/100)) | 33.94 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier (active armed conflict) | 8 |
| Score | 63.94 → 64 🟠 |
South Lebanon
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 22 August, decay 1.000000 | 0.00 |
| 21 August, decay 0.750000 (5.40 × 0.75) | 4.05 |
| 20 August, decay 0.562500 (8.40 × 0.5625) | 4.73 |
| 19 August, decay 0.421875 (5.40 × 0.421875, revised) | 2.28 |
| 18 August, decay 0.316406 (6.00 × 0.316406) | 1.90 |
| 17 August, decay 0.237305 | 0.00 |
| 16 August, decay 0.177979 (8.00 × 0.177979) | 1.42 |
| 15 August, decay 0.133484 (20.00 × 0.133484) | 2.67 |
| Raw Load L | 17.05 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−17.05/100)) | 11.76 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier | 8 |
| Score | 41.76 → 42 🟡 |
Remaining seven governorates
No scoring incidents logged within the window. Activity 0.00. Score = baseline + modifier.
| Governorate | Baseline | Modifier | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baalbek-Hermel | 16 | 8 | 24 🟢 |
| Beqaa Valley | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Mount Lebanon | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Beirut | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| Akkar | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| North Lebanon | 10 | 8 | 18 ⚪ |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 8 | 8 | 16 ⚪ |
Parameters in force (frozen to 14 November 2026): methodology v3.0 · coding manual v3.1 · decay 0.75/day over 7 days · compression K=100 · activity ceiling 75 · fatality 8, injury 2, structure 3 capped at 12, displacement 5/district, route disruption 3 · confirmation multipliers 1.0 / 0.6 / 0.0.
6 · Confidence
The window (15–22 August) remains fully covered — no coding gaps. Confidence remains MODERATE: the 15 August load, still the largest single component today at its final day of contribution, is mostly Confirmed, but a meaningful share of the more recent days (18–21 August) remains single-sourced and Reported. HIGH is reserved for a window in which every contributing incident is Confirmed, which is not yet the case.
Nabatieh's score (64) now sits close to the HIGH/MEDIUM boundary (61). A downward revision of even a few points on any remaining Reported incident, or the natural decay of tomorrow's window, could plausibly cross that threshold. CIS flags this explicitly so a band change tomorrow — in either direction — is understood in context rather than treated as a surprise.
7 · What CIS Is Watching
- Whether tonight produces confirmed activity, or whether the apparent lull that began 21–22 August continues.
- Whether further reporting emerges on the 21–22 August period requiring a similar revision to this week's other editions — CIS regards this as a live possibility given the pattern observed with 19 August.
- Whether Nabatieh's score crosses into MEDIUM, which would be the first band change into a lower category since the methodology launched.
- Whether the regional trajectory — the lapsed US–Iran ceasefire, Syria–Turkey friction — produces developments reaching Lebanon.
- Whether independent sourcing ever emerges for the 21 August casualty claim CIS declined to code.
8 · CIS Operational Posture
CIS maintains Level 5 — Severe Alert.
The Index has fallen to its lowest reading since the methodology launched, and no new activity was confirmed overnight. Posture is unchanged. This week's own experience — three consecutive days in which the published score understated the true picture until fuller reporting caught up — is itself part of CIS's reasoning for holding posture steady through an apparent lull rather than stepping down in response to a single quiet night.
(CIS Posture Levels 1–5: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#posture)
Practical effect for active client sites:
- Continuous supervisor contact for all sites in Nabatieh and South Lebanon governorates.
- Reinforcement standby maintained under the 24/7 emergency line for active clients.
- Route and access planning reviewed daily for all southern sites.
- New deployments continue within 24 hours of contract confirmation.
9 · Assessment
This edition contains two stories, and both matter. The smaller one is that no new activity was confirmed overnight, and the Index reads 64 — its lowest level since computed scoring began, and the first reading to genuinely reflect the 15 August mass-casualty event fully exiting the seven-day window.
The larger one is the revision. Fuller reporting on the night of 19 August, located only after that edition published, showed CIS's own real-time coding had substantially understated that night's activity — not by a small margin, but by enough to move three consecutive days of published scores, cascading through the decay window exactly as the methodology requires. CIS is publishing this in full because the alternative, quietly restating today's number without explaining why yesterday's figures moved, would undermine the reproducibility the entire system depends on. A reader who wants to check CIS's arithmetic can now see, incident by incident, exactly why 73 became 78, why that pushed 71 to 74, and why that in turn pushed 69 to 72.
Read together, the two stories argue for caution rather than relief. Today's 64 is a real number, correctly computed from what is currently known. But this week has demonstrated, concretely and now twice over, that same-morning compilation can materially understate a night's true activity. CIS states plainly that it cannot rule out the same happening to today's reading, and will revise again if warranted.
For Beirut, Mount Lebanon, North Lebanon, Akkar and Keserwan-Jbeil, conditions remain calm and normal operations continue. Four governorates read MINIMAL. The severity remains concentrated in the south, and CIS states that plainly so clients can plan against reality — including the reality that this week's numbers have moved more than once — rather than against any single morning's headline.
10 · Sources
Tier 2 — regional and national outlets, this edition Naharnet (independent account of 19 August overnight activity: Ali al-Taher hill, Wadi Zebqine outskirts, house in Nabatieh al-Fawqa, detonations in Hadatha and Mansouri) · Reporting attributed to Lebanon's National News Agency, carried via a regional aggregator (19 August: Ali al-Taher hill, Doha Kfar Rumman, Deir Siryan outskirts, Mansouri and Hadatha bombings, Majdal Zoun shelling, flares over Tyre and Bint Jbeil).
Note under coding rule 4.6: Naharnet is treated as an organisation independent of NNA for the purposes of this revision, being an editorially distinct Lebanese outlet rather than a wire reprint service. Where both accounts describe the same location (Hadatha, Mansouri), the incident is coded Confirmed. Where only one account names a location, it remains Reported.
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology > Source register: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#sources > Corrections and revisions: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections > To challenge a score: info@cissecurity.net with the date, governorate and basis.
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CIS Lebanon Security Index™ · Saturday, 22 August 2026 · Conflict Day 174 · Truce Day 63 Methodology v3.0 · Coding Manual v3.1 · Compiled in Beirut CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn't Optional — Since 1990
COMPILER NOTES — NOT FOR PUBLICATION
This is the biggest revision of the week and it needs a human sanity check before it goes out. I found two separate accounts of 19 August's overnight activity that were both absent from what I had when I wrote that edition. I've treated Naharnet as independent of NNA (editorially distinct outlet, not a wire reprint), which is what let Hadatha and Mansouri reach Confirmed status. If your team knows Naharnet is functionally just republishing NNA verbatim rather than reporting independently, that assumption is wrong and the whole revision should be recoded as single-source Reported throughout — worth five minutes to verify before this publishes, since it changes several numbers.
I found no clearly-dated news for last night (21–22 Aug) specifically. Everything my searches returned was recap material for the 19th–21st. I coded today as "swept, zero" rather than guess — but given this week's pattern, treat today's 64 as the most provisional number I've published yet. If your southern sites have anything from last night, it belongs in today's log before this goes out, not as tomorrow's revision.
Nabatieh at 64 is close to crossing into MEDIUM (60 and below). Flag this for whoever runs tomorrow's edition — a band change downward would be the first since the methodology launched, and after this week, I'd want two nights of genuine quiet before treating it as real rather than as another gap in same-morning sourcing.
On the flares — third uncategorized event type in a week (funerals, disinformation, overflights, now flares). I'd stop treating these as one-offs and just add a lightweight "non-kinetic pressure activity, logged not scored" category now rather than waiting for November — happy to draft it if you want it before the next calibration review rather than at it.
Trend line, both versions, for your records: Published at the time: 94 → 91 → 85 → 79 → 73 → 71 → 69 → 64 As it now stands after revision: 94 → 91 → 85 → 79 → 78 → 74 → 72 → 64 The gap between those two lines is the whole story of same-day compilation limits this week. Worth keeping both in the archive exactly as the registers already do — that comparison is a genuinely good thing to be able to show a skeptical client or journalist.
