🛡️ CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™
Tuesday, August 25, 2026
Methodology v3.0 · Coding Manual v3.1
TIER 1 — PUBLIC EDITION
OVERALL INDEX: 56 / 100
TREND: ⬆️ +1 (55 → 56). The first genuinely flat reading in ten days — overnight strikes returned to Ali al-Taher hill, Dawhet Kfar Rumman and Nabatieh al-Fawqa, roughly offsetting continued decay. First sign of the situation settling at a level, but confidence remains LOW.
🟡 NATIONAL ALERT LEVEL: 56/100 — MEDIUM
Driven by: Nabatieh · Trend: ⬆️ +1 (55 → 56) · Confidence: LOW Spread: 0 CRITICAL · 0 HIGH · 2 MEDIUM · 5 LOW · 2 MINIMAL
Governorate Readings
| Governorate | Score | Level | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nabatieh | 56 | 🟡 MEDIUM | LOW |
| South Lebanon | 34 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Baalbek-Hermel | 24 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Beqaa Valley | 22 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Mount Lebanon | 22 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Beirut | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| Akkar | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| North Lebanon | 18 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 16 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
> The first genuinely flat reading in ten days. After a week of sharp swings and repeated upward revisions, today's score moves by a single point. Overnight strikes returned to the same three locations that have been struck repeatedly since 15 August — Ali al-Taher hill, Dawhet Kfar Rumman, Nabatieh al-Fawqa — roughly offsetting continued decay. This looks like the first sign of the situation settling at a level rather than continuing to move sharply, but one day is not a pattern, and confidence remains LOW.
Overnight strikes return to Ali al-Taher, Kfar Rumman and Nabatieh al-Fawqa
- Israeli warplanes struck Ali al-Taher hill, Dawhet Kfar Rumman and Nabatieh al-Fawqa overnight, with intermittent artillery fire accompanying the strikes, according to Lebanese reporting. No casualty information was available at compilation time.
- Separately, Lebanese sources report that countries considered for a possible international force in southern Lebanon — to replace or supplement UNIFIL, or to verify Hezbollah's disarmament in proposed "pilot zones" — are seeking security guarantees from both Israel and Hezbollah before proceeding. This is a diplomatic development and does not affect today's score.
- Eleven days into the current escalation at Ali al-Taher, there is still no reported sign of resolution.
🚦 Zone Guidance
| Area | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Ali al-Taher hill · Dawhet Kfar Rumman · Nabatieh al-Fawqa | Avoid entirely — struck again overnight |
| Sirbin · Rshaf · Tallouseh (Marjayoun district) | Avoid |
| Israeli-controlled security zone (approx. 10 km deep) | Do not approach under any circumstances |
| Nabatieh district — Ansar, Deir al-Zahrani, Kfar Rouman, Harouf, Habboush | Avoid |
| Bint Jbeil district | Avoid |
| Tyre district — routes south of Sidon | Avoid non-essential travel |
| Sidon and the coastal route | Passable — expect continued congestion |
| Dahiyeh · Bekaa Valley | Elevated caution |
| Beirut · Mount Lebanon · North Lebanon · Akkar · Keserwan-Jbeil | Normal operations; maintain situational awareness |
If you are in or near an affected area
- Do not travel into Nabatieh, Bint Jbeil or Marjayoun districts.
- Do not read a flat or falling score as a sign the area has calmed — this is still an active nightly strike pattern, unchanged in location for over a week.
- Keep phones charged and agree a family check-in time and a meeting point.
- Identify the lowest interior room in your building, away from windows and glazing.
- Keep identity documents, medication and cash together and ready to move at short notice.
- Verify any casualty or threat claim through official channels before acting.
- Follow Civil Defence (125) and Lebanese Red Cross (1760) in preference to social media.
📞 Emergency Contacts
- CIS Security emergency line (active clients): +961-3-539900 — 24/7/365
- CIS general enquiries: +961-3-539900 · info@cissecurity.net · Monday–Friday, 8:00 AM–6:00 PM
- Civil Defence: 125 · Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 · Internal Security Forces: 112
- Lebanese Army — South Lebanon Liaison: +961-8-802-510
- National Mental Health Lifeline: 1564 — free, confidential, 24/7
- US Embassy emergency (overseas citizens services): +1-202-501-4444 · BeirutACS@state.gov
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology · Corrections: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections
Need security cover for a property or site? → https://app.cissecurity.net/request Get the Index in your inbox daily, 8:15 AM → cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/
CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn't Optional — Since 1990
TIER 2 — ANALYST EDITION
1 · Executive Summary
Israeli warplanes struck Ali al-Taher hill, Dawhet Kfar Rumman and Nabatieh al-Fawqa overnight, accompanied by intermittent artillery fire, according to Lebanese reporting. No casualty information was available at compilation time. These are the same three locations that have anchored nightly activity since 15 August.
The National Alert Level moves one point, from 55 to 56, remaining within MEDIUM.
CIS assessment. This is the smallest day-to-day movement of the entire escalation, and the first time in ten editions that new activity has roughly matched rather than been dominated by either a mass-casualty legacy load or a sharp decay effect. CIS treats this cautiously rather than as confirmation of a new steady state — one flat day, following a week of four consecutive upward revisions, is not yet a pattern. But it is the first reading that looks like it could be measuring an actual current baseline rather than the residue of 15 August working through the window.
2 · Same Locations, Eleven Days Running
Ali al-Taher hill, Dawhet Kfar Rumman and Nabatieh al-Fawqa have now featured in CIS's coded incident log on most nights since 15 August, without meaningful geographic expansion or contraction over the past several editions.
CIS assessment. This consistency is itself informative. It suggests a bounded, ongoing operation focused on a specific area — consistent with the Ali al-Taher standoff CIS has tracked since late July — rather than either an escalating campaign expanding to new districts or a genuine wind-down. Clients with sites near these three locations specifically should not expect the pattern to change based on today's numbers alone; the strike pattern itself has shown no change in over a week, even as the Index's score has moved considerably due to decay mathematics.
3 · A Diplomatic Development, Not Scored
Lebanese sources report that countries being considered for a possible international force in southern Lebanon — to replace or supplement UNIFIL, or to verify Hezbollah's disarmament in proposed pilot zones — are seeking security guarantees from both Israel and Hezbollah before committing. Continued Israeli strikes and violations are reported as an obstacle to progress on this track.
CIS assessment. This does not score — it is a diplomatic and institutional development, not a Lebanon incident. It is reported because it is the first indication CIS has seen of concrete international planning around a post-Ali al-Taher security architecture, distinct from the bilateral Rome talks CIS has covered previously. CIS will monitor whether this track advances or stalls alongside the Rome process.
4 · Coded Incident Log
25 August 2026 — decay 1.00
| # | Governorate | Location | Category | Confirmation | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nabatieh | Ali al-Taher hill | Airstrike (no count → 1) | Reported | 3.6 |
| 2 | Nabatieh | Dawhet Kfar Rumman | Airstrike | Reported | 3.6 |
| 3 | Nabatieh | Nabatieh al-Fawqa | Airstrike | Reported | 3.6 |
| 4 | Nabatieh | Accompanying the above | Artillery ("intermittent" → 1) | Reported | 2.4 |
Nabatieh subtotal: 13.20. All four incidents rest on a single reporting chain and are coded Reported.
24 August 2026 — decay 0.75
One incident as coded in the 24 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 3.60.
23 August 2026 — decay 0.5625
Two incidents as coded in the 23 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 7.20.
22 August 2026 — decay 0.421875
Nine incidents as revised in the 23 August edition (REV-2026-007). Nabatieh subtotal 25.80.
21 August 2026 — decay 0.316406
Seven incidents as coded in the 21 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 14.40; South Lebanon subtotal 5.40.
20 August 2026 — decay 0.237305
Eight incidents as coded in the 20 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 13.20; South Lebanon subtotal 8.40.
19 August 2026 — decay 0.177979
Nine incidents as revised in the 22 August edition (REV-2026-004). Nabatieh subtotal 22.20; South Lebanon subtotal 5.40.
18 August 2026 — decay 0.133484
Four incidents as coded in the 18 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 4.80; South Lebanon subtotal 6.00. This is the oldest day still inside today's window; it exits after tomorrow's edition.
17 August 2026
Fully exited the window as of today. Was already contributing zero (swept, zero incidents), so its exit has no numerical effect.
5 · Scoring — Full Working
Nabatieh
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 25 August, decay 1.000000 | 13.20 |
| 24 August, decay 0.750000 (3.60 × 0.75) | 2.70 |
| 23 August, decay 0.562500 (7.20 × 0.5625) | 4.05 |
| 22 August, decay 0.421875 (25.80 × 0.421875, revised) | 10.88 |
| 21 August, decay 0.316406 (14.40 × 0.316406) | 4.56 |
| 20 August, decay 0.237305 (13.20 × 0.237305) | 3.13 |
| 19 August, decay 0.177979 (22.20 × 0.177979, revised basis) | 3.95 |
| 18 August, decay 0.133484 (4.80 × 0.133484) | 0.64 |
| Raw Load L | 43.11 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−43.11/100)) | 26.27 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier (active armed conflict) | 8 |
| Score | 56.27 → 56 🟡 |
South Lebanon
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 25 August, decay 1.000000 | 0.00 |
| 24 August, decay 0.750000 | 0.00 |
| 23 August, decay 0.562500 | 0.00 |
| 22 August, decay 0.421875 | 0.00 |
| 21 August, decay 0.316406 (5.40 × 0.316406) | 1.71 |
| 20 August, decay 0.237305 (8.40 × 0.237305) | 1.99 |
| 19 August, decay 0.177979 (5.40 × 0.177979, revised basis) | 0.96 |
| 18 August, decay 0.133484 (6.00 × 0.133484) | 0.80 |
| Raw Load L | 5.46 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−5.46/100)) | 3.98 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier | 8 |
| Score | 33.98 → 34 🟢 |
South Lebanon continues to ease, with no new incidents logged there for four consecutive days.
Remaining seven governorates
No scoring incidents logged within the window. Activity 0.00. Score = baseline + modifier.
| Governorate | Baseline | Modifier | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baalbek-Hermel | 16 | 8 | 24 🟢 |
| Beqaa Valley | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Mount Lebanon | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Beirut | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| Akkar | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| North Lebanon | 10 | 8 | 18 ⚪ |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 8 | 8 | 16 ⚪ |
Parameters in force (frozen to 14 November 2026): methodology v3.0 · coding manual v3.1 · decay 0.75/day over 7 days · compression K=100 · activity ceiling 75 · fatality 8, injury 2, structure 3 capped at 12, displacement 5/district, route disruption 3 · confirmation multipliers 1.0 / 0.6 / 0.0.
6 · Confidence
Confidence remains LOW for both Nabatieh and South Lebanon. The window (18–25 August) is fully covered with no coding gaps, but reported-share of Nabatieh's raw load is approximately 96% — essentially the entire window now rests on single-sourced reporting, with only a small residual Confirmed contribution from 19 August's corroborated incidents. This is unchanged from yesterday and is expected to persist until a future incident is independently corroborated by two distinct organisations.
7 · What CIS Is Watching
- Whether tomorrow confirms a genuine plateau or whether today proves to be another understated report awaiting revision.
- Whether the strike pattern at Ali al-Taher, Kfar Rumman and Nabatieh al-Fawqa persists unchanged, expands, or begins to taper.
- Whether the international-force guarantee-seeking track advances, stalls, or is overtaken by the Rome bilateral process.
- Whether casualties are ever confirmed from the 24 August Nabatieh al-Fawqa strike, which remains uncertain.
- Whether reported-share falls as any of this week's incidents are independently corroborated.
8 · CIS Operational Posture
CIS maintains Level 5 — Severe Alert.
Strikes have now hit the same three Nabatieh locations on most nights for eleven days. A one-point movement in the Index does not change CIS's assessment of ongoing risk to sites in or near these locations, which remains driven by the unchanged strike pattern rather than by the computed score.
(CIS Posture Levels 1–5: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#posture)
Practical effect for active client sites:
- Continuous supervisor contact for all sites in Nabatieh governorate, particularly near Ali al-Taher, Kfar Rumman and Nabatieh al-Fawqa.
- Reinforcement standby maintained under the 24/7 emergency line for active clients.
- Route and access planning reviewed daily for all southern sites.
- New deployments continue within 24 hours of contract confirmation.
9 · Assessment
After a week defined by sharp declines, a historic band change, and four consecutive upward revisions, today's edition is notable mainly for how little it moved. A one-point rise, within the same band as yesterday, from an incident set that returned to the same three locations struck repeatedly since 15 August.
CIS reads this cautiously rather than as confirmation of anything settled. The pattern this week has been that quiet or modest reports understate what is later found to have happened; today could follow the same course. What can be said with more confidence is that the underlying strike pattern — Ali al-Taher, Kfar Rumman, Nabatieh al-Fawqa, eleven days running — has not changed, even though the Index's headline number has moved from 94 to 55 to 56 over the same period. The number and the situation on the ground are not the same thing, and this week has been a sustained demonstration of that distinction: the Index measures a decaying, evidence-weighted load, while the strike pattern itself has been remarkably constant.
Separately, the first sign of international institutional planning beyond the bilateral Rome track — guarantee-seeking for a possible force in southern Lebanon — is worth watching, though it remains preliminary and does not yet bear on current conditions.
For Beirut, Mount Lebanon, North Lebanon, Akkar and Keserwan-Jbeil, conditions remain calm and normal operations continue, as they have throughout this stretch. The severity remains concentrated in Nabatieh, around an unchanged and still-active set of locations, and CIS states that plainly regardless of which direction the headline number moves on any given morning.
10 · Sources
Tier 2 — regional and national outlets Asharq Al-Awsat (overnight strikes on Ali al-Taher hill, Dawhet Kfar Rumman and Nabatieh al-Fawqa with intermittent artillery; international-force guarantee-seeking report).
Note under coding rule 4.6: all four of today's incidents rest on a single reporting chain and are coded Reported.
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology > Source register: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#sources > Corrections and revisions: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections > To challenge a score: info@cissecurity.net with the date, governorate and basis.
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CIS Lebanon Security Index™ · Tuesday, 25 August 2026 · Conflict Day 177 · Truce Day 66 Methodology v3.0 · Coding Manual v3.1 · Compiled in Beirut CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn't Optional — Since 1990
COMPILER NOTES — NOT FOR PUBLICATION
This is the calmest edition to write all week, and I still don't fully trust it. One point of movement, same three locations, single source again. Given the pattern of the last five days, I'd put real odds on this getting revised too — but I want to flag that I'm now at risk of treating every single edition as "probably incomplete" by default, which isn't itself a neutral position. Worth discussing with Carlos whether there's a point at which CIS treats a report as sufficiently established without waiting to see if it gets revised — otherwise every edition ships with an implicit asterisk forever.
The genuinely useful observation today is the disconnect between the number and the pattern. Same three locations hit for eleven straight nights, while the Index went from 94 to 55 to 56. That's not a contradiction — it's decay math doing exactly what it's supposed to — but it's worth pulling out as a standing explainer for clients who might otherwise read "MEDIUM" as "the strikes have stopped." They haven't. The location list hasn't changed since the 15th.
South Lebanon is now four days with zero new incidents. Worth watching whether that's a genuine cessation there specifically, separate from what's happening in Nabatieh proper.
The international-force item is new and worth flagging to Carlos as a story to track, separate from daily scoring — first sign of an institutional (not just bilateral) track forming around Ali al-Taher's resolution.
Trend line, current best version: 94 → 91 → 85 → 79 → 78 → 74 → 72 → 73 → 61 → 55 → 56 Ten days in, this is the first point where the line looks like it might be finding a level rather than still working through a legacy event. One day. Not a conclusion.
