🛡️ CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™
Wednesday, August 26, 2026
Conflict Day 178 · Truce Day 67 Methodology v3.0 · Coding Manual v3.1
TIER 1 — PUBLIC EDITION
OVERALL INDEX: 62 / 100
TREND: ⬆️ +6 (56 → 62). Band change MEDIUM → HIGH. Yesterday's one-day dip into MEDIUM has reversed after overnight strikes and demolitions hit at least six locations across Nabatieh and South Lebanon governorates — a wider footprint than any night since 22 August. Confidence remains LOW.
🟠 NATIONAL ALERT LEVEL: 62/100 — HIGH
Driven by: Nabatieh · Trend: ⬆️ +6 (56 → 62) · Band change: MEDIUM → HIGH · Confidence: LOW Spread: 0 CRITICAL · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM · 5 LOW · 2 MINIMAL
Governorate Readings
| Governorate | Score | Level | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nabatieh | 62 | 🟠 HIGH | LOW |
| South Lebanon | 34 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Baalbek-Hermel | 24 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Beqaa Valley | 22 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Mount Lebanon | 22 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Beirut | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| Akkar | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| North Lebanon | 18 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 16 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
> Yesterday's one-day dip into MEDIUM has reversed. Overnight strikes and demolitions hit at least six locations across Nabatieh and South Lebanon governorates — a wider footprint than any night since 22 August, and independently corroborated at two locations rather than resting on a single source. This is a genuine escalation in the evidence, not a decay artefact. CIS advises against treating either yesterday's MEDIUM or today's HIGH as more settled than the underlying pattern — nightly activity around Ali al-Taher and Bint Jbeil district has continued without interruption for twelve days.
Wide overnight footprint: six locations struck across two governorates
- Israeli forces carried out demolitions on the outskirts of Srebbine (Bint Jbeil district) and struck al-Qantara in Marjayoun district — both independently corroborated by two separate Lebanese sources. Additional strikes and shelling were reported at al-Dabsheh, Kfar Roummane, Haddatha and Khiam in Nabatieh governorate, and tank shelling struck Mansouri, south of Tyre, in South Lebanon governorate.
- Israeli fighter jets were also reported flying at low altitude over parts of southern Lebanon; no ordnance release or casualties were associated with this activity.
- No casualty information was reported from last night's strikes at the time of publication.
🚦 Zone Guidance
| Area | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Srebbine · al-Qantara · al-Dabsheh · Kfar Roummane · Haddatha · Khiam | Avoid — struck or shelled overnight |
| Mansouri | Avoid — tank shelling overnight |
| Ali al-Taher hill · Dawhet Kfar Rumman · Nabatieh al-Fawqa | Avoid entirely — struck repeatedly this week |
| Israeli-controlled security zone (approx. 10 km deep) | Do not approach under any circumstances |
| Nabatieh district — Ansar, Deir al-Zahrani, Kfar Rouman, Harouf, Habboush | Avoid |
| Bint Jbeil district | Avoid |
| Marjayoun district | Avoid — struck overnight |
| Tyre district — routes south of Sidon | Avoid non-essential travel |
| Sidon and the coastal route | Passable — expect continued congestion |
| Dahiyeh · Bekaa Valley | Elevated caution |
| Beirut · Mount Lebanon · North Lebanon · Akkar · Keserwan-Jbeil | Normal operations; maintain situational awareness |
If you are in or near an affected area
- Do not travel into Nabatieh, Bint Jbeil, Marjayoun or southern Tyre districts.
- Do not read yesterday's MEDIUM reading as evidence conditions had eased — today's reversal shows a single day's number can move sharply in either direction.
- Keep phones charged and agree a family check-in time and a meeting point.
- Identify the lowest interior room in your building, away from windows and glazing.
- Keep identity documents, medication and cash together and ready to move at short notice.
- Verify any casualty or threat claim through official channels before acting.
- Follow Civil Defence (125) and Lebanese Red Cross (1760) in preference to social media.
📞 Emergency Contacts
- CIS Security emergency line (active clients): +961-3-539900 — 24/7/365
- CIS general enquiries: +961-3-539900 · info@cissecurity.net · Monday–Friday, 8:00 AM–6:00 PM
- Civil Defence: 125 · Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 · Internal Security Forces: 112
- Lebanese Army — South Lebanon Liaison: +961-8-802-510
- National Mental Health Lifeline: 1564 — free, confidential, 24/7
- US Embassy emergency (overseas citizens services): +1-202-501-4444 · BeirutACS@state.gov
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology · Corrections: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections
Need security cover for a property or site? → https://app.cissecurity.net/request Get the Index in your inbox daily, 8:15 AM → cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/
CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn't Optional — Since 1990
TIER 2 — ANALYST EDITION
1 · Executive Summary
Israeli forces struck or shelled at least six locations across Nabatieh and South Lebanon governorates overnight: demolitions at Srebbine (Bint Jbeil district), airstrikes at al-Qantara (Marjayoun district), al-Dabsheh, and Kfar Roummane, artillery at Haddatha and Khiam, and tank shelling at Mansouri, south of Tyre. Low-altitude fighter overflights were also reported across the south, with no associated ordnance release.
The National Alert Level rises six points, from 56 to 62, crossing back from MEDIUM into HIGH.
CIS assessment. This reversal, one day after the Index's first fall into MEDIUM, is instructive rather than contradictory. Yesterday's MEDIUM rested on a single, thinly-sourced report from three locations. Today's incident set spans six locations, two of them independently corroborated by separate Lebanese sources — a genuinely stronger evidentiary basis, not merely a larger number. CIS reads this as the Index correctly registering an actual escalation in overnight activity, not as a reversion driven by a backfill or revision.
2 · Independent Corroboration — A Notable Improvement
Srebbine and al-Qantara are each reported independently by two distinct organisations: Lebanon's National News Agency (via Middle East Eye) and a separate account citing Lebanese media including An-Nahar newspaper (via a regional outlet). Under coding rule 4.6, both incidents meet the Confirmed bar.
CIS assessment. This is the first time since 22 August that CIS has coded same-day incidents as Confirmed rather than Reported, and it materially improves today's evidentiary basis relative to the past several editions, even though the overall confidence rating remains LOW (see §4). CIS notes this improvement explicitly, consistent with its practice of flagging both deteriorations and improvements in evidentiary quality as they occur, rather than only ever noting the negative.
3 · An Uncategorised Event, Again — Low-Altitude Overflights
Israeli fighter jets were reported flying at low altitude over parts of southern Lebanon overnight, with no ordnance release or casualties associated. This is the second time CIS has logged this specific activity (previously 21 August), alongside flares (19 August) as related non-kinetic pressure activity.
CIS assessment. Consistent with prior treatment, this is logged without being scored, since no existing category fits an event with no kinetic effect. CIS reiterates its recommendation from 21 August that non-kinetic pressure activity be considered as a candidate scoring category at the 14 November calibration review, now having recorded three separate instances of this general type of event (flares, overflights ×2) in under two weeks.
4 · Coded Incident Log
26 August 2026 — decay 1.00
| # | Governorate | Location | Category | Confirmation | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nabatieh | Srebbine, Bint Jbeil district | Demolition ("several explosions" → 2 structures) | Confirmed (2 independent accounts) | 6.0 |
| 2 | Nabatieh | Al-Qantara, Marjayoun district | Airstrike | Confirmed (2 independent accounts) | 6.0 |
| 3 | Nabatieh | Haddatha outskirts | Artillery | Reported | 2.4 |
| 4 | Nabatieh | Al-Dabsheh | Airstrike | Reported | 3.6 |
| 5 | Nabatieh | Kfar Roummane vicinity | Airstrike | Reported | 3.6 |
| 6 | Nabatieh | Khiam | Artillery (explosions heard, method unspecified) | Reported | 2.4 |
| 7 | South Lebanon | Mansouri, Tyre district | Artillery (tank shelling) | Reported | 2.4 |
| — | Nationwide (south) | — | Low-altitude jet overflight | Confirmed | 0.0 — no scoring category |
Nabatieh subtotal: 24.00. South Lebanon subtotal: 2.40.
25 August 2026 — decay 0.75
Four incidents as coded in the 25 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 13.20.
24 August 2026 — decay 0.5625
One incident as coded in the 24 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 3.60.
23 August 2026 — decay 0.421875
Two incidents as coded in the 23 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 7.20.
22 August 2026 — decay 0.316406
Nine incidents as revised in the 23 August edition (REV-2026-007). Nabatieh subtotal 25.80.
21 August 2026 — decay 0.237305
Seven incidents as coded in the 21 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 14.40; South Lebanon subtotal 5.40.
20 August 2026 — decay 0.177979
Eight incidents as coded in the 20 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 13.20; South Lebanon subtotal 8.40.
19 August 2026 — decay 0.133484
Nine incidents as revised in the 22 August edition (REV-2026-004). Nabatieh subtotal 22.20; South Lebanon subtotal 5.40. This is the oldest day still inside today's window; it exits after tomorrow's edition.
18 August 2026
Fully exited the window as of today. No longer contributes at any weight.
5 · Scoring — Full Working
Nabatieh
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 26 August, decay 1.000000 | 24.00 |
| 25 August, decay 0.750000 (13.20 × 0.75) | 9.90 |
| 24 August, decay 0.562500 (3.60 × 0.5625) | 2.03 |
| 23 August, decay 0.421875 (7.20 × 0.421875) | 3.04 |
| 22 August, decay 0.316406 (25.80 × 0.316406, revised) | 8.16 |
| 21 August, decay 0.237305 (14.40 × 0.237305) | 3.42 |
| 20 August, decay 0.177979 (13.20 × 0.177979) | 2.35 |
| 19 August, decay 0.133484 (22.20 × 0.133484, revised basis) | 2.96 |
| Raw Load L | 55.86 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−55.86/100)) | 32.10 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier (active armed conflict) | 8 |
| Score | 62.10 → 62 🟠 |
Nabatieh crosses back from MEDIUM into HIGH.
South Lebanon
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 26 August, decay 1.000000 | 2.40 |
| 25 August, decay 0.750000 | 0.00 |
| 24 August, decay 0.562500 | 0.00 |
| 23 August, decay 0.421875 | 0.00 |
| 22 August, decay 0.316406 | 0.00 |
| 21 August, decay 0.237305 (5.40 × 0.237305) | 1.28 |
| 20 August, decay 0.177979 (8.40 × 0.177979) | 1.50 |
| 19 August, decay 0.133484 (5.40 × 0.133484, revised basis) | 0.72 |
| Raw Load L | 5.90 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−5.90/100)) | 4.29 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier | 8 |
| Score | 34.29 → 34 🟢 |
South Lebanon is essentially unchanged, with today's Mansouri incident roughly offsetting continued decay of the 21 August load.
Remaining seven governorates
No scoring incidents logged within the window. Activity 0.00. Score = baseline + modifier.
| Governorate | Baseline | Modifier | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baalbek-Hermel | 16 | 8 | 24 🟢 |
| Beqaa Valley | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Mount Lebanon | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Beirut | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| Akkar | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| North Lebanon | 10 | 8 | 18 ⚪ |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 8 | 8 | 16 ⚪ |
Parameters in force (frozen to 14 November 2026): methodology v3.0 · coding manual v3.1 · decay 0.75/day over 7 days · compression K=100 · activity ceiling 75 · fatality 8, injury 2, structure 3 capped at 12, displacement 5/district, route disruption 3 · confirmation multipliers 1.0 / 0.6 / 0.0.
6 · Confidence
Confidence remains LOW for both Nabatieh and South Lebanon, though Nabatieh's evidentiary quality has genuinely improved. Reported-share of Nabatieh's raw load falls to approximately 76% today, down from roughly 96% yesterday, reflecting the two newly Confirmed incidents. This remains above the 50% threshold, so the confidence band does not change, but CIS notes the direction of movement as informative in its own right — this is the first improvement in Nabatieh's underlying evidentiary quality since 15 August fully exited the window.
South Lebanon's reported-share remains high (approximately 93%), unchanged in character from recent days.
7 · What CIS Is Watching
- Whether today's wider six-location footprint represents a genuine escalation or a return to the norm following one unusually quiet day.
- Whether further corroboration emerges for the four Reported-grade locations (al-Dabsheh, Kfar Roummane, Haddatha, Khiam), which would raise both the score and confidence further.
- Whether casualties are confirmed from any of last night's strikes.
- Whether the low-altitude overflight pattern, now recorded twice, becomes a regular feature warranting a scoring category before the scheduled November review.
- Whether the international-force guarantee-seeking track reported yesterday shows further movement.
8 · CIS Operational Posture
CIS maintains Level 5 — Severe Alert.
Last night's six-location footprint, including two independently corroborated incidents, is consistent with continued active operations rather than any easing. Twelve consecutive nights of reported activity in some form since 15 August is the operative fact for posture, independent of the Index's day-to-day movement between MEDIUM and HIGH.
(CIS Posture Levels 1–5: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#posture)
Practical effect for active client sites:
- Continuous supervisor contact for all sites in Nabatieh and South Lebanon governorates, now including Marjayoun district given last night's Qantara strike.
- Reinforcement standby maintained under the 24/7 emergency line for active clients.
- Route and access planning reviewed daily for all southern sites.
- New deployments continue within 24 hours of contract confirmation.
9 · Assessment
Yesterday CIS described the flattest reading of the escalation as a possible sign of a settling baseline, while cautioning that one day was not a pattern. Today confirms that caution was warranted: a wider, better-corroborated overnight footprint pushes Nabatieh back across the HIGH threshold it crossed out of only one day earlier.
The distinction that matters here is evidentiary, not just numerical. Yesterday's MEDIUM rested on a single source describing three locations. Today's HIGH rests on six locations, two of them confirmed independently by separate Lebanese outlets — the first such corroboration since 22 August. CIS regards today's reading as resting on firmer ground than yesterday's, even though both were correctly computed from what was available at each compilation.
Twelve days into continuous nightly activity around Ali al-Taher, Bint Jbeil district and now Marjayoun district, the operative fact for anyone with people or property in the area remains constant regardless of which side of the HIGH/MEDIUM line the Index sits on: this is an active, ongoing operation, and it has not stopped.
For Beirut, Mount Lebanon, North Lebanon, Akkar and Keserwan-Jbeil, conditions remain calm and normal operations continue. The severity remains concentrated in Nabatieh and, to a lesser degree, South Lebanon, and CIS states that plainly regardless of which single number leads the morning's headline.
10 · Sources
Tier 2 — regional and national outlets Middle East Eye, citing Lebanon's National News Agency (Srebbine demolitions, Mansouri tank shelling, al-Qantara airstrikes, Haddatha artillery) · Ynetnews, citing Lebanese media including An-Nahar newspaper (al-Dabsheh, Qantara, Srebbine, Kfar Roummane, Khiam explosions, low-altitude jet overflights).
Note under coding rule 4.6: Srebbine and al-Qantara are reported by both sources above and meet the Confirmed threshold as two distinct organisations. Al-Dabsheh, Kfar Roummane, Haddatha, Khiam and the Mansouri shelling rest on a single organisation each and are coded Reported.
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology > Source register: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#sources > Corrections and revisions: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections > To challenge a score: info@cissecurity.net with the date, governorate and basis.
Request security coverage → https://app.cissecurity.net/request Speak to CIS → +961-3-539900 · info@cissecurity.net
About CIS Security
CIS Security is one of Lebanon's most established security companies, providing professional security guard services across the country since 1990. From its headquarters in Jdeide, Beirut, CIS deploys 50+ licensed, uniformed guards on active duty nationwide, with more than 2,000 guards trained since 1990 and hundreds of properties protected.
CIS security services in Lebanon include residential security guards for towers, compounds and gated communities; commercial, retail and industrial security services; hospital and school security; jewelry store and high-value retail protection; executive protection and VIP services; and event security. These are supported by CCTV systems, electronic security and access control, GPS tracking and fleet management, risk assessment, professional security consulting, and crisis management and emergency response.
All CIS guard operations — recruitment, training, deployment and supervision — run under an ISO 9001:2015 certified quality management system, and every deployed guard holds a valid Lebanese security guard licence. Past contracts have included banks and financial institutions, embassies and diplomatic facilities, hospitals, and international organisations including UN agencies (UNICEF; UNGM vendor registration); references are available upon request. CIS teams work in Arabic, English and French.
New client deployments begin within 24 hours of contract confirmation, and a 24/7/365 emergency line is maintained for active clients. CIS Security also publishes the CIS Lebanon Security Index™, Lebanon's first daily public security intelligence platform, covering all nine governorates every morning at 8:00 AM.
Request a security quote → https://app.cissecurity.net/request Security guard jobs in Lebanon → https://hr.cissecurity.net Offices: Jdeide, Beirut · Monday–Friday, 8:00 AM–6:00 PM · +961-3-539900 · info@cissecurity.net
CIS Lebanon Security Index™ · Wednesday, 26 August 2026 · Conflict Day 178 · Truce Day 67 Methodology v3.0 · Coding Manual v3.1 · Compiled in Beirut CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn't Optional — Since 1990
COMPILER NOTES — NOT FOR PUBLICATION
This is a genuinely good validation day for the system, and worth using as an example if anyone questions the volatility. Yesterday's MEDIUM wasn't wrong, and today's HIGH isn't a correction to it — both were correctly computed from what was known at each moment. The difference is real new information (a wider, better-corroborated strike footprint), not a revision. This is the methodology doing exactly what it's supposed to do: track actual reported activity, move when activity moves, and this time it moved on genuine grounds rather than decay mechanics or a delayed report catching up.
Two locations reached Confirmed status today — Srebbine and al-Qantara, via distinct Lebanese and international-relay sourcing. First time since the 22nd. Reported-share for Nabatieh dropped from ~96% to ~76%. Still LOW confidence overall, but this is the first move in the right direction in over a week — worth flagging as a positive data point to Carlos rather than only ever reporting deterioration.
Khiam is coded thin. "Explosions were heard" doesn't specify method, and I made a judgment call to bucket it as artillery by default rather than invent a category. If your team has better information on what actually happened at Khiam, it's worth recoding precisely rather than leaving my default guess in the permanent log.
Third instance of non-kinetic pressure activity in under two weeks (flares, overflights ×2). I'd stop calling this an edge case at this point — it's a recurring feature. Happy to draft the category now rather than wait for 14 November if you want it standardized sooner.
Trend line, current best version: 94 → 91 → 85 → 79 → 78 → 74 → 72 → 73 → 61 → 55 → 56 → 62 Twelve days in. The swing between 55 and 62 over two days is a useful illustration for anyone asking why the Index moves as much as it does — it's not noise, it's the model responding to the difference between a thin single-source report and a wider, corroborated one.
