🛡️ CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™
Saturday, August 29, 2026
Methodology v3.0 · Coding Manual v3.1
OVERALL INDEX: 68 / 100
TREND: ⬇️ −7 (75 → 68), driven by Nabatieh. A fall from the two-day spike, driven mainly by decay rather than an easing. Confidence is LOW and CIS treats today's thin report as likely incomplete, not as evidence conditions have improved.
TIER 1 — PUBLIC EDITION
🟠 NATIONAL ALERT LEVEL: 68/100 — HIGH
Driven by: Nabatieh · Trend: ⬇️ −7 (75 → 68) · Confidence: LOW Spread: 0 CRITICAL · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM · 5 LOW · 2 MINIMAL
Governorate Readings
| Governorate | Score | Level | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nabatieh | 68 | 🟠 HIGH | LOW |
| South Lebanon | 35 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Baalbek-Hermel | 24 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Beqaa Valley | 22 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Mount Lebanon | 22 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Beirut | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| Akkar | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| North Lebanon | 18 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 16 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
> A fall from the two-day spike, driven mainly by decay rather than an easing. Only one incident was confidently dated to overnight activity — a drone strike reported to have targeted Nabatieh al-Fawqa, unconfirmed by the Israeli military. The 27–28 August severity is still working through the window and continues to dominate today's score. Given this week's pattern, CIS treats today's thin report as likely incomplete, not as evidence conditions have improved.
Single reported drone strike on Nabatieh al-Fawqa; no IDF comment
- A drone strike was reported to have targeted Nabatieh al-Fawqa overnight, according to Israeli media citing Lebanese reports. The Israeli military did not comment on the report at the time of compilation.
- No further locations were confidently dated to the past 24 hours.
- CIS has not located any update on the Kfar Shuba position reported on 27 August, nor on the ground-vehicle movement reported near Haddatha the same day. Their current status is unknown.
🚦 Zone Guidance
| Area | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Nabatieh al-Fawqa | Avoid — struck overnight |
| Kfar Shuba | Avoid entirely — status of the 27 August Israeli position unknown; treat as unresolved |
| Ali al-Taher hill · Qantara · Kfar Rumman | Avoid entirely — struck repeatedly this week |
| Arab Salim · Braasheet · Srifa · Mansouri · Wadi al-Hujeir · Khiam | Avoid — struck this week |
| Israeli-controlled security zone (approx. 10 km deep) | Do not approach under any circumstances |
| Nabatieh district — Ansar, Deir al-Zahrani, Kfar Rouman, Harouf, Habboush | Avoid |
| Bint Jbeil, Marjayoun and Hasbaya districts | Avoid |
| Tyre district — routes south of Sidon | Avoid non-essential travel |
| Sidon and the coastal route | Passable — expect continued congestion |
| Dahiyeh · Bekaa Valley | Elevated caution |
| Beirut · Mount Lebanon · North Lebanon · Akkar · Keserwan-Jbeil | Normal operations; maintain situational awareness |
If you are in or near an affected area
- Do not travel into Nabatieh, Bint Jbeil, Marjayoun or Hasbaya districts.
- Do not read today's fall as a sign of de-escalation — it reflects the mathematics of a decaying window, not confirmed improvement, and this week's reports have repeatedly understated activity later found to have occurred.
- Keep phones charged and agree a family check-in time and a meeting point.
- Identify the lowest interior room in your building, away from windows and glazing.
- Keep identity documents, medication and cash together and ready to move at short notice.
- Follow Civil Defence (125) and Lebanese Red Cross (1760) in preference to social media.
- Verify any casualty or threat claim through official channels before acting.
📞 Emergency Contacts
- CIS Security emergency line (active clients): +961-3-539900 — 24/7/365
- CIS general enquiries: +961-3-539900 · info@cissecurity.net · Monday–Friday, 8:00 AM–6:00 PM
- Civil Defence: 125 · Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 · Internal Security Forces: 112
- Lebanese Army — South Lebanon Liaison: +961-8-802-510
- National Mental Health Lifeline: 1564 — free, confidential, 24/7
- US Embassy emergency (overseas citizens services): +1-202-501-4444 · BeirutACS@state.gov
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology · Corrections: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections
Need security cover for a property or site? → https://app.cissecurity.net/request Get the Index in your inbox daily, 8:15 AM → cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/
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TIER 2 — ANALYST EDITION
1 · Executive Summary
A single incident was confidently dated to overnight activity: a drone strike reported to have targeted Nabatieh al-Fawqa, according to Israeli media citing Lebanese reports, with no comment from the Israeli military at the time of compilation. No further locations were established.
The National Alert Level falls seven points, from 75 to 68, remaining within HIGH.
CIS assessment. This fall is produced almost entirely by the decay of 27 and 28 August's severe, multi-location activity, not by a corroborated easing of conditions. Today's own contribution to the raw load is the smallest of any day since 25 August. Given the pattern documented repeatedly this week — where a thin same-morning report has preceded a materially fuller account within one to three days on five separate occasions — CIS treats today's quiet with the same caution applied throughout the week, not as confirmation that the 27–28 August escalation has ended.
2 · Two Open Threads From 27 August, Status Unknown
CIS has not located any further reporting on two significant items from 27 August: the Israeli position established at Kfar Shuba (flag raised, automatic fire opened, per the 28 August revision), and the separately reported military vehicle movement near Haddatha toward Aita al-Jabal.
CIS assessment. The absence of further reporting is not itself informative — it could reflect that both situations resolved without further escalation, that reporting has simply not caught up, or that access restrictions are limiting coverage. CIS states plainly that it does not know the current status of either, and will not speculate. Clients with any operational interest in the Kfar Shuba or Haddatha–Aita al-Jabal areas should treat both as unresolved and monitor independently rather than assume either has been stood down.
3 · Coded Incident Log
29 August 2026 — decay 1.00
| # | Governorate | Location | Category | Confirmation | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nabatieh | Nabatieh al-Fawqa | Airstrike (drone strike, unconfirmed by IDF) | Reported | 3.6 |
Nabatieh subtotal: 3.60. This is the smallest daily contribution to Nabatieh's raw load since 25 August, and CIS regards it as very likely incomplete given the pattern documented in §1.
28 August 2026 — decay 0.75
Eight incidents as coded in the 28 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 16.80; South Lebanon subtotal 4.20.
27 August 2026 — decay 0.5625
Sixteen incidents as revised in the 28 August edition (REV-2026-008). Nabatieh subtotal 61.80; South Lebanon subtotal 3.60.
26 August 2026 — decay 0.421875
Seven incidents as coded in the 26 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 24.00; South Lebanon subtotal 2.40.
25 August 2026 — decay 0.316406
Four incidents as coded in the 25 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 13.20.
24 August 2026 — decay 0.237305
One incident as coded in the 24 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 3.60.
23 August 2026 — decay 0.177979
Two incidents as coded in the 23 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 7.20.
22 August 2026 — decay 0.133484
Nine incidents as revised in the 23 August edition (REV-2026-007). Nabatieh subtotal 25.80. This is the oldest day still inside today's window; it exits after tomorrow's edition.
21 August 2026
Fully exited the window as of today. No longer contributes at any weight.
4 · Scoring — Full Working
Nabatieh
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 29 August, decay 1.000000 | 3.60 |
| 28 August, decay 0.750000 (16.80 × 0.75) | 12.60 |
| 27 August, decay 0.562500 (61.80 × 0.5625, revised) | 34.76 |
| 26 August, decay 0.421875 (24.00 × 0.421875) | 10.13 |
| 25 August, decay 0.316406 (13.20 × 0.316406) | 4.18 |
| 24 August, decay 0.237305 (3.60 × 0.237305) | 0.85 |
| 23 August, decay 0.177979 (7.20 × 0.177979) | 1.28 |
| 22 August, decay 0.133484 (25.80 × 0.133484, revised basis) | 3.44 |
| Raw Load L | 70.84 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−70.84/100)) | 38.07 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier (active armed conflict) | 8 |
| Score | 68.07 → 68 🟠 |
South Lebanon
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 29 August, decay 1.000000 | 0.00 |
| 28 August, decay 0.750000 (4.20 × 0.75) | 3.15 |
| 27 August, decay 0.562500 (3.60 × 0.5625) | 2.03 |
| 26 August, decay 0.421875 (2.40 × 0.421875) | 1.01 |
| Raw Load L | 6.19 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−6.19/100)) | 4.50 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier | 8 |
| Score | 34.50 → 35 🟢 |
Remaining seven governorates
No scoring incidents logged within the window. Activity 0.00. Score = baseline + modifier.
| Governorate | Baseline | Modifier | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baalbek-Hermel | 16 | 8 | 24 🟢 |
| Beqaa Valley | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Mount Lebanon | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Beirut | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| Akkar | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| North Lebanon | 10 | 8 | 18 ⚪ |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 8 | 8 | 16 ⚪ |
Parameters in force (frozen to 14 November 2026): methodology v3.0 · coding manual v3.1 · decay 0.75/day over 7 days · compression K=100 · activity ceiling 75 · fatality 8, injury 2, structure 3 capped at 12, displacement 5/district, route disruption 3 · confirmation multipliers 1.0 / 0.6 / 0.0.
5 · Confidence
Confidence remains LOW. Reported-share of Nabatieh's raw load is approximately 90%. Only the two Confirmed Ali al-Taher incidents from 27 August continue to provide corroborated weight; today's single incident, like most of this week's activity, rests on single-organisation reporting relayed without independent Israeli military confirmation.
6 · What CIS Is Watching
- Whether today's single-incident report is revised upward, consistent with the pattern observed on five occasions this week.
- Whether the status of the Kfar Shuba position and the Haddatha–Aita al-Jabal vehicle movement is clarified in either direction.
- Whether 27–28 August proves to be the peak of a renewed escalation or a two-day spike within a longer plateau, as the Index continues to fall through the coming days absent new significant activity.
- Whether the Qatari mediation effort shows any results.
- Whether the Israeli military comments on today's reported Nabatieh al-Fawqa strike.
7 · CIS Operational Posture
CIS maintains Level 5 — Severe Alert.
The unresolved status of the Kfar Shuba position and the Haddatha–Aita al-Jabal vehicle movement, combined with a thinly-sourced quiet night that CIS has no basis to treat as complete, argue against any reduction in posture. CIS will revisit if the coming days bring genuinely corroborated, sustained reductions in activity.
(CIS Posture Levels 1–5: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#posture)
Practical effect for active client sites:
- Continuous supervisor contact for all sites in Nabatieh and South Lebanon governorates.
- Reinforcement standby maintained under the 24/7 emergency line for active clients.
- Route and access planning reviewed daily for all southern sites, particularly near Kfar Shuba and Haddatha pending clarification of their status.
- New deployments continue within 24 hours of contract confirmation.
8 · Assessment
Today's fall reflects arithmetic, not resolution. The 27–28 August escalation — the most severe sustained period since the opening week of this Index — continues to dominate the raw load even as it decays, while today's own contribution is the thinnest of the past several days.
CIS does not know whether this represents the start of a genuine cooling period or simply a night where reporting has not yet caught up with events, a pattern that has recurred five times in two weeks. Two specific open questions from 27 August — the Kfar Shuba position and the Haddatha vehicle movement — remain unresolved, and CIS will not assume either has ended in the absence of reporting either way.
For Beirut, Mount Lebanon, North Lebanon, Akkar and Keserwan-Jbeil, conditions remain calm and normal operations continue. The severity remains concentrated in Nabatieh, still within HIGH and well above the levels recorded before 27 August, and CIS states plainly that today's fall should not be read as the end of the recent escalation until firmer evidence supports that conclusion.
9 · Sources
Tier 2 — regional and national outlets The Times of Israel liveblog, 29 August (drone strike reported to target Nabatieh al-Fawqa; no IDF comment).
Note under coding rule 4.6: today's single incident rests on Israeli media relaying Lebanese reporting without independent confirmation, coded Reported.
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology > Source register: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#sources > Corrections and revisions: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections > To challenge a score: info@cissecurity.net with the date, governorate and basis.
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CIS Lebanon Security Index™ · Saturday, 29 August 2026 · Conflict Day 181 · Truce Day 70 Methodology v3.0 · Coding Manual v3.1 · Compiled in Beirut CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn't Optional — Since 1990
COMPILER NOTES — NOT FOR PUBLICATION
Genuinely thin day — searches surfaced almost nothing dated specifically to last night. The one item I have is a single-line Times of Israel entry with no IDF comment. Given five same-pattern revisions in the past two weeks, I would bet on this being incomplete rather than treat it as the full picture. If your southern sites have anything from last night, this is the edition to add it to before publication, not after.
Two important threads from the 27th have simply gone quiet, and I don't know why. No update on the Kfar Shuba position (flag raised, fire opened) or the Haddatha–Aita al-Jabal vehicle movement. Silence could mean either resolved without incident or just uncovered by the sources I can reach — I've said so plainly rather than assume either. Worth checking your own channels specifically for these two locations, since they're the most operationally significant open items right now regardless of what today's score shows.
No revision to Aug27/28 today — I found nothing in this search round that contradicts or supplements yesterday's edition. Their figures carry forward unrevised.
Trend line, current best version: 94 → 91 → 85 → 79 → 78 → 74 → 72 → 73 → 61 → 55 → 56 → 62 → 78 → 75 → 68 Fifteen days in. Today's fall looks like the start of the 27–28 spike decaying out, similar to what happened after 15 August. Whether it continues falling toward the pre-spike plateau (~55-62) or whether new activity emerges to sustain it near current levels is the open question for the next several editions.
