🛡️ CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™
Monday, August 31, 2026
OVERALL INDEX: 57 / 100
TREND: ⬇️ −7 (64 → 57), a band change from HIGH to MEDIUM driven by Nabatieh. No new incidents were confidently dated to the past two nights, and the severe 27–29 August period continues to decay out of the window, so confidence in this reading is LOW.
TIER 1 — PUBLIC EDITION
🟡 NATIONAL ALERT LEVEL: 57/100 — MEDIUM
Driven by: Nabatieh · Trend: ⬇️ −7 (64 → 57) · Band change: HIGH → MEDIUM · Confidence: LOW Spread: 0 CRITICAL · 0 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM · 6 LOW · 2 MINIMAL
Governorate Readings
| Governorate | Score | Level | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nabatieh | 57 | 🟡 MEDIUM | LOW |
| South Lebanon | 33 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Baalbek-Hermel | 24 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Beqaa Valley | 22 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Mount Lebanon | 22 | 🟢 LOW | LOW |
| Beirut | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| Akkar | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| North Lebanon | 18 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 16 | ⚪ MINIMAL | LOW |
> ⚠️ A second fall into MEDIUM, on the same thin basis that failed to hold last time. No new incidents were confidently dated to the past two nights, and the severe 27–29 August period continues to decay out of the window. CIS notes that the last time Nabatieh fell into MEDIUM, on 24 August, the reading reversed within a single day once fuller reporting emerged, and one of this week's zero-incident sweeps was subsequently revealed to have missed six incidents. Treat this reading with matching caution.
No new incidents confidently dated to the past two nights
- CIS's source sweep found no confidently dated incidents for either the night of 29–30 or 30–31 August at the time of compilation.
- This follows a pattern in which same-morning zero or single-incident reports have, on six separate occasions in the past two weeks, been revised upward within one to three days once fuller reporting emerged — most recently three days ago, when a single coded incident on 29 August became six.
- The status of the Kfar Shuba position and the Haddatha–Aita al-Jabal vehicle movement, both reported on 27 August, remains unknown for a fourth consecutive day.
🚦 Zone Guidance
| Area | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Nabatieh city — including Nabih Berri Avenue | Avoid — struck 29 August |
| Al-Deir quarter · Ali al-Taher hill · Haris · Haddatha · Markaba | Avoid entirely — struck repeatedly this week |
| Kfar Shuba | Avoid entirely — status of the 27 August Israeli position unknown; treat as unresolved |
| Arab Salim · Braasheet · Srifa · Mansouri · Qantara · Kfar Rumman · Wadi al-Hujeir · Khiam | Avoid — struck this week |
| Israeli-controlled security zone (approx. 10 km deep) | Do not approach under any circumstances |
| Nabatieh district — Ansar, Deir al-Zahrani, Kfar Rouman, Harouf, Habboush | Avoid |
| Bint Jbeil, Marjayoun and Hasbaya districts | Avoid |
| Tyre district — routes south of Sidon | Avoid non-essential travel |
| Sidon and the coastal route | Passable — expect continued congestion |
| Dahiyeh · Bekaa Valley | Elevated caution |
| Beirut · Mount Lebanon · North Lebanon · Akkar · Keserwan-Jbeil | Normal operations; maintain situational awareness |
If you are in or near an affected area
- Do not travel into Nabatieh, Bint Jbeil, Marjayoun or Hasbaya districts.
- Do not read a MEDIUM reading as a sign of resolved conditions — the same band change reversed within a day the last time it occurred.
- Keep phones charged and agree a family check-in time and a meeting point.
- Identify the lowest interior room in your building, away from windows and glazing.
- Keep identity documents, medication and cash together and ready to move at short notice.
- Follow Civil Defence (125) and Lebanese Red Cross (1760) in preference to social media.
- Verify any casualty or threat claim through official channels before acting.
📞 Emergency Contacts
- CIS Security emergency line (active clients): +961-3-539900 — 24/7/365
- CIS general enquiries: +961-3-539900 · info@cissecurity.net · Monday–Friday, 8:00 AM–6:00 PM
- Civil Defence: 125 · Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 · Internal Security Forces: 112
- Lebanese Army — South Lebanon Liaison: +961-8-802-510
- National Mental Health Lifeline: 1564 — free, confidential, 24/7
- US Embassy emergency (overseas citizens services): +1-202-501-4444 · BeirutACS@state.gov
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology · Corrections: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections
Need security cover for a property or site? → https://app.cissecurity.net/request Get the Index in your inbox daily, 8:15 AM → cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/
CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn't Optional — Since 1990
TIER 2 — ANALYST EDITION
1 · Executive Summary
CIS's source sweep found no incidents confidently dated to either the night of 29–30 or 30–31 August. No further reporting has emerged on the Kfar Shuba position or the Haddatha–Aita al-Jabal vehicle movement, both from 27 August.
The National Alert Level falls seven points, from 64 to 57, crossing from HIGH into MEDIUM.
CIS assessment. This is the second time Nabatieh has fallen into MEDIUM since the methodology launched. The first instance, on 24 August, reversed within a single day once fuller reporting established six locations struck the following night. CIS does not treat today's band change as more reliable than that one was, and states this explicitly rather than let a second MEDIUM reading acquire unearned credibility simply by recurring. The proximate cause is arithmetic: two consecutive zero-incident sweeps allowing the severe 27–29 August period to decay without replacement, not a corroborated change in conditions.
2 · Two Consecutive Zero-Incident Sweeps — Read With the Week's Pattern in Mind
This is the first time in the tracked period that CIS has recorded two consecutive nights without a confidently dated incident. Every other quiet night this week — 17 August, 29 August's initial report — was later found to have understated real activity once fuller reporting emerged, in one case by a margin of one incident becoming six.
CIS assessment. CIS has no specific evidence that today's zeroes will be revised; it has, on the other hand, no basis to treat them with more confidence than the single-incident report on 29 August that was revised within three days. CIS is not withholding publication pending further verification — that would trade a worse problem for a better-understood one, per the position stated in the 30 August edition — but readers should weight this consideration heavily when deciding how much confidence to place in today's MEDIUM reading specifically.
3 · Four Days of Silence on Two Open Threads
The Kfar Shuba position (flag raised, automatic fire opened, 27 August) and the reported vehicle movement near Haddatha toward Aita al-Jabal (also 27 August) have now gone unreported for four consecutive days.
CIS assessment. CIS continues to decline to interpret this silence in either direction. It could indicate resolution, a shift in reporting focus, or an information gap. Clients with any operational interest in either location should treat both as unresolved and seek independent verification rather than infer a status from the absence of coverage.
4 · Coded Incident Log
31 August 2026 — decay 1.00
No incidents confirmed at time of compilation. Contribution: 0.0
30 August 2026 — decay 0.75
Swept, no incidents confirmed, as established in the 30 August edition. Contribution: 0.0
29 August 2026 — decay 0.5625
Six incidents as revised in the 30 August edition (REV-2026-009). Nabatieh subtotal 18.00.
28 August 2026 — decay 0.421875
Eight incidents as coded in the 28 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 16.80; South Lebanon subtotal 4.20.
27 August 2026 — decay 0.316406
Sixteen incidents as revised in the 28 August edition (REV-2026-008). Nabatieh subtotal 61.80; South Lebanon subtotal 3.60.
26 August 2026 — decay 0.237305
Seven incidents as coded in the 26 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 24.00; South Lebanon subtotal 2.40.
25 August 2026 — decay 0.177979
Four incidents as coded in the 25 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 13.20.
24 August 2026 — decay 0.133484
One incident as coded in the 24 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 3.60. This is the oldest day still inside today's window; it exits after tomorrow's edition.
23 August 2026
Fully exited the window as of today. No longer contributes at any weight.
5 · Scoring — Full Working
Nabatieh
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 31 August, decay 1.000000 | 0.00 |
| 30 August, decay 0.750000 | 0.00 |
| 29 August, decay 0.562500 (18.00 × 0.5625, revised) | 10.13 |
| 28 August, decay 0.421875 (16.80 × 0.421875) | 7.09 |
| 27 August, decay 0.316406 (61.80 × 0.316406, revised) | 19.55 |
| 26 August, decay 0.237305 (24.00 × 0.237305) | 5.70 |
| 25 August, decay 0.177979 (13.20 × 0.177979) | 2.35 |
| 24 August, decay 0.133484 (3.60 × 0.133484) | 0.48 |
| Raw Load L | 45.29 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−45.29/100)) | 27.32 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier (active armed conflict) | 8 |
| Score | 57.32 → 57 🟡 |
Nabatieh crosses from HIGH into MEDIUM for the second time since the methodology launched.
South Lebanon
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 31 August, decay 1.000000 | 0.00 |
| 30 August, decay 0.750000 | 0.00 |
| 29 August, decay 0.562500 | 0.00 |
| 28 August, decay 0.421875 (4.20 × 0.421875) | 1.77 |
| 27 August, decay 0.316406 (3.60 × 0.316406) | 1.14 |
| 26 August, decay 0.237305 (2.40 × 0.237305) | 0.57 |
| Raw Load L | 3.48 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−3.48/100)) | 2.56 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier | 8 |
| Score | 32.56 → 33 🟢 |
South Lebanon is unchanged from yesterday, with no new incidents there since 28 August.
Remaining seven governorates
No scoring incidents logged within the window. Activity 0.00. Score = baseline + modifier.
| Governorate | Baseline | Modifier | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baalbek-Hermel | 16 | 8 | 24 🟢 |
| Beqaa Valley | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Mount Lebanon | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Beirut | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| Akkar | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| North Lebanon | 10 | 8 | 18 ⚪ |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 8 | 8 | 16 ⚪ |
Parameters in force (frozen to 14 November 2026): methodology v3.0 · coding manual v3.1 · decay 0.75/day over 7 days · compression K=100 · activity ceiling 75 · fatality 8, injury 2, structure 3 capped at 12, displacement 5/district, route disruption 3 · confirmation multipliers 1.0 / 0.6 / 0.0.
6 · Confidence
Confidence remains LOW. Reported-share of Nabatieh's raw load is approximately 92%. Only the two Confirmed Ali al-Taher incidents from 27 August continue to provide corroborated weight, and their contribution decays further with each passing day; they exit the window entirely after 2 September.
7 · What CIS Is Watching
- Whether the past two nights' zero-incident sweeps are revised upward, consistent with the pattern documented throughout this edition.
- Whether today's MEDIUM reading holds for more than the single day the previous instance managed on 24–25 August.
- Whether the Kfar Shuba position and the Haddatha–Aita al-Jabal vehicle movement are ever further reported on.
- Whether the 27–29 August escalation proves to have been a discrete, now-concluding episode or whether it resumes.
- Whether the Qatari mediation effort shows any results.
8 · CIS Operational Posture
CIS maintains Level 5 — Severe Alert.
Two unresolved ground-movement threads from 27 August, a demonstrated pattern of understated same-day reporting recurring six times in two weeks, and a MEDIUM reading whose only prior precedent reversed within a day together argue strongly against any reduction in posture on the basis of today's score.
(CIS Posture Levels 1–5: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#posture)
Practical effect for active client sites:
- Continuous supervisor contact for all sites in Nabatieh and South Lebanon governorates.
- Reinforcement standby maintained under the 24/7 emergency line for active clients.
- Route and access planning reviewed daily for all southern sites.
- New deployments continue within 24 hours of contract confirmation.
9 · Assessment
Today's MEDIUM reading is arithmetically sound and evidentially thin in equal measure. Two consecutive nights without a confidently dated incident have allowed the severe 27–29 August period to decay past the HIGH threshold, and CIS has no basis to dispute the computation. CIS does, however, have direct and recent experience with exactly this situation: the same band change on 24 August, produced by the same kind of quiet reporting, reversed within a single day once a fuller account of the following night emerged.
CIS is not predicting that today's reading will reverse. It is stating plainly that the specific pattern behind today's MEDIUM score — silence following a severe period — has not previously proven reliable in this Index's short history, and that readers should weight that history when deciding how to act on today's number. The unresolved Kfar Shuba and Haddatha threads compound this caution: CIS does not know whether either situation has concluded, continued quietly, or simply gone unreported.
For Beirut, Mount Lebanon, North Lebanon, Akkar and Keserwan-Jbeil, conditions remain calm and normal operations continue, as they have throughout this stretch. Whatever today's number ultimately proves to reflect, the geographic pattern established over the past two weeks — concentrated in Nabatieh, now including its district capital, with occasional activity in South Lebanon and unresolved questions about ground movement near Kfar Shuba and Haddatha — remains the operative picture for anyone with interests in the affected area.
10 · Sources
No incidents were confidently dated to the reporting period covered by this edition. CIS's search of Lebanese, Israeli, and international outlets found no material meeting the coding threshold for 30–31 August.
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology > Source register: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#sources > Corrections and revisions: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections > To challenge a score: info@cissecurity.net with the date, governorate and basis.
Request security coverage → https://app.cissecurity.net/request Speak to CIS → +961-3-539900 · info@cissecurity.net
About CIS Security
CIS Security is one of Lebanon's most established security companies, providing professional security guard services across the country since 1990. From its headquarters in Jdeide, Beirut, CIS deploys 50+ licensed, uniformed guards on active duty nationwide, with more than 2,000 guards trained since 1990 and hundreds of properties protected.
CIS security services in Lebanon include residential security guards for towers, compounds and gated communities; commercial, retail and industrial security services; hospital and school security; jewelry store and high-value retail protection; executive protection and VIP services; and event security. These are supported by CCTV systems, electronic security and access control, GPS tracking and fleet management, risk assessment, professional security consulting, and crisis management and emergency response.
All CIS guard operations — recruitment, training, deployment and supervision — run under an ISO 9001:2015 certified quality management system, and every deployed guard holds a valid Lebanese security guard licence. Past contracts have included banks and financial institutions, embassies and diplomatic facilities, hospitals, and international organisations including UN agencies (UNICEF; UNGM vendor registration); references are available upon request. CIS teams work in Arabic, English and French.
New client deployments begin within 24 hours of contract confirmation, and a 24/7/365 emergency line is maintained for active clients. CIS Security also publishes the CIS Lebanon Security Index™, Lebanon's first daily public security intelligence platform, covering all nine governorates every morning at 8:00 AM.
Request a security quote → https://app.cissecurity.net/request Security guard jobs in Lebanon → https://hr.cissecurity.net Offices: Jdeide, Beirut · Monday–Friday, 8:00 AM–6:00 PM · +961-3-539900 · info@cissecurity.net
CIS Lebanon Security Index™ · Monday, 31 August 2026 · Conflict Day 183 · Truce Day 72 Methodology v3.0 · Coding Manual v3.1 · Compiled in Beirut CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn't Optional — Since 1990
COMPILER NOTES — NOT FOR PUBLICATION
I want to be very direct about this one: I found nothing for either of the last two nights, and given what happened three days ago, I don't trust that finding. Aug29's "one incident" became six within a day. Aug30's zero and today's zero could easily follow the same path. I've built the entire public-facing framing of this edition around that caution rather than let a clean MEDIUM number speak for itself.
This is the second time Nabatieh has fallen into MEDIUM, and the first time reversed within 24 hours. I've said this explicitly and prominently — I think it's the single most important piece of context for reading today's number correctly. A second MEDIUM reading shouldn't get more credibility than the first one just by virtue of recurring; if anything it should get less, given what we now know about this week's sourcing gaps.
Kfar Shuba and Haddatha-Aita al-Jabal: four days silent now. Still no update, still no interpretation offered.
If your field teams have anything from the past 48 hours, now is the time to surface it — before this MEDIUM reading gets treated as settled by anyone downstream of this edition.
Trend line, current best version: 94 → 91 → 85 → 79 → 78 → 74 → 72 → 73 → 61 → 55 → 56 → 62 → 78 → 75 → 73 → 64 → 57 Seventeen days in. Two MEDIUM readings now, one already proven unreliable. I would not be surprised if this one follows the same path.
