CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – June 15 2026

🟠 WAR DAY 106 | 🕊️ US–IRAN MOU DIGITALLY SIGNED SUNDAY | FIGHTING IN LEBANON EASED — NOT STOPPED | 1 KILLED KFAR TIBNIT TODAY | ISRAEL “NOT BOUND” BY LEBANON CLAUSE — KATZ: NO WITHDRAWAL | DISPLACED BEGIN RETURNING — FIND RUINS | FORMAL SIGNING GENEVA FRIDAY JUNE 19 | S&P +1.9% | OIL -5% | ~3,800 KILLED IN LEBANON | NABATIEH: “WE’LL NEED A LIFETIME TO REBUILD”

INDEX LEVEL: 🟠 HIGH — TRANSITIONAL OVERALL INDEX: 62/100 TREND: ⬇️⬇️ MOST SIGNIFICANT DE-ESCALATION IN 106 DAYS — The US–Iran MOU was digitally signed on Sunday June 14 by Trump, Vance, and Iran’s Ghalibaf; Vance confirmed the digital signing on Monday; Iran’s Pezeshkian confirmed formal signing on Friday June 19 in Geneva (Switzerland); fighting in Lebanon eased significantly on Monday but did not halt completely; 1 killed in Kfar Tibnit drone strike today; Hezbollah fired drones and rockets at IDF in south Lebanon (its first attacks since the deal); IDF intercepted Hezbollah rockets; 1.2 million displaced Lebanese beginning to return — many finding homes destroyed or inaccessible; Netanyahu told Trump Israel “not bound” by Lebanon clause; Katz: Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon and troops will stay “indefinitely”; Lebanon was NOT informed of the deal — learned from media; Aoun welcomed deal; Araghchi called Aoun stressing “importance of respecting Lebanon’s sovereignty”; Nabih Berri thanked Tehran and Washington for Lebanon clause; Macron says G7 will discuss Iran, Lebanon and Hormuz; US blockade of Iranian ports REMAINS IN EFFECT until June 19; S&P +1.9%; oil -5%; Brent ~$83; Nasdaq and Dow rallied.

🕊️ THE HISTORIC BREAKTHROUGH — WHAT WAS SIGNED AND WHAT IT MEANS

THE MOU — CONFIRMED FACTS (JUNE 15)

<cite index=”352-1″>President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance both signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran, which would cease fighting on all fronts for 60 days and is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic. The signatures were done digitally, and a formal signing will happen in Geneva, Switzerland, on Friday June 19.</cite>

<cite index=”351-1″>The memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran is “about a page and a half” long, Vance said. It is a broad framework that leaves details to be worked out during future technical negotiations. Separately, Vance told NBC News that international nuclear inspectors will be allowed back into Iran under the terms of the MOU. The text will be released “pretty soon,” Trump said, likely after the formal signing ceremony in Geneva on Friday.</cite>

<cite index=”354-1″>Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said the deal was reached “following a difficult and intensive period of negotiations lasting several months.” Markets greeted the news with a rally in stocks, with the S&P 500 up 1.9%, and oil prices dropping by almost 5%.</cite>

What the MOU reportedly includes:

• 60-day ceasefire on all fronts — including Lebanon
• Strait of Hormuz reopening (full, no tolls)
• US naval blockade of Iranian ports lifted — but REMAINS IN EFFECT until June 19
• International nuclear inspectors return to Iran
• 60-day window for comprehensive nuclear negotiations
• $300 billion reconstruction discussion (US confirms this was discussed; Vance says no cash for signing)
• Sanctions relief details deferred to technical negotiations

Formal signing: Geneva, Switzerland, Friday June 19. VP Vance confirmed to attend. Trump said “it depends” whether he attends. Iranian President Pezeshkian confirmed Friday signing.

WHAT THE MOU DOES NOT DO — CRITICAL FOR LEBANON

<cite index=”352-1″>Administration officials responded, saying that Israel withdrawing from Lebanon was “not a condition of the deal.” “The deal is a ceasefire, and it will not be a one-way ceasefire, meaning that if Iran is not able to control Hezbollah, and if they attack Israeli positions or Israeli towns, Israel will have the right to defend themselves and respond,” a senior administration official said.</cite>

<cite index=”367-1″>”Israel will not withdraw from the territories seized in Lebanon,” warned Katz, who added that Iran has no interest in retaliating against events that will unfold in Lebanon. Lebanon has not been informed of the agreement between Iran and the United States, according to an official source speaking to AFP.</cite>

<cite index=”370-1″>Netanyahu reportedly told Trump that Israel is “not bound” by the Lebanon clause in the Iran deal.</cite>

<cite index=”351-1″>Netanyahu largely avoided addressing the deal directly in remarks Monday and said he and Trump “do not always see eye to eye.” He also made clear that Israel does not intend to withdraw from southern Lebanon, Gaza, or Syria.</cite>

CIS summary: The deal ends the US–Iran war. It includes Lebanon in its ceasefire clause. But Israel — which is actually fighting in Lebanon — is not a party, has explicitly said it is “not bound” by the Lebanon clause, and Katz has said troops will stay in southern Lebanon indefinitely. This is the central contradiction Lebanon must now navigate through the June 22 Washington talks and subsequent diplomatic process.

📰 JUNE 14–15 — WHAT HAPPENED ON THE GROUND

SUNDAY JUNE 14 — THE DAY OF THE SIGNING (AND MORE STRIKES)

<cite index=”342-1″>At least three people were killed in Israeli attacks on Beirut’s southern suburbs (Dahiyeh) on Sunday, with at least seven others wounded. Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office said the military struck “Hezbollah targets” in Dahiyeh in response to firings by the Lebanese group towards Israeli territory. The Israeli military said Hezbollah had launched three projectiles towards northern Israel in what it described as a blatant ceasefire violation.</cite>

<cite index=”358-1″>Earlier on Sunday, Israel issued forced displacement orders for 29 locations in southern Lebanon — 25 in Nabatieh district and four in Sidon district — with people told to immediately flee north of the Zahrani River. An Israeli military spokesperson said the forced displacement orders included the towns of Jbaa, Houmin al-Tahta, Ansar and Kfar Sir.</cite>

Israel struck Dahiyeh on the same day the MOU was being digitally signed. Trump lashed out at Netanyahu over the weekend for the Dahiyeh strikes, saying they risked the Iran deal.

MONDAY JUNE 15 — EASING BUT NOT STOPPED

<cite index=”364-1″>Fighting in Lebanon eased significantly on Monday but did not halt completely despite the US-Iran deal. An Israeli strike killed one person in Kfar Tibnit. Hezbollah also said it fired drones and rockets at Israeli military vehicles that it said were trying to push deeper into southern Lebanon, in its first attack since the deal. The Iran-aligned group also said it fired rockets and artillery shells against Israeli troops in southern Lebanon, where clashes were still ongoing. Later on Monday, the Israeli military confirmed it intercepted rockets launched by Hezbollah toward an area where troops were operating in southern Lebanon.</cite>

<cite index=”370-1″>An Israeli drone targeted Monday a car in the southern town of Kfartebnit near the Israeli-designated “Yellow Line,” killing the driver and wounding others including a reporter, in three separate Israeli attacks on the town.</cite>

<cite index=”367-1″>According to residents, the Lebanese Army closed several roads, particularly after Israeli artillery fire was used to prevent displaced people from reaching certain areas. In Haris (Bint Jbeil), troops closed the road near the Haj Dib Attieh station due to the presence of Israeli tanks in the area.</cite>

DISPLACED LEBANESE BEGIN RETURNING — AND FIND RUINS

<cite index=”364-1″>In Nabatieh, Mohammed Daqdouq said he had returned on Monday morning to check on his home. “We’ll need a lifetime to rebuild — to rebuild it again and bring Nabatieh back to how it was,” he said.</cite>

<cite index=”365-1″>Imad Komeyha and his family spent 12 hours travelling from northern Lebanon back to Kfar Sir, a village in the south, only to find their house in ruins. “My house is demolished.” “I am devastated,” said Komeyha, a 62-year-old political analyst. “My eldest son is married and has a baby. He lives downstairs, in the same building; his house is also gone.”</cite>

CIS warning: The pattern from January 2025 is directly relevant. When Lebanon’s previous ceasefire (November 2024) was announced, unarmed displaced civilians who returned to their villages were fired on by IDF troops, killing at least 26 and wounding 147. <cite index=”367-1″>The Lebanese Army has closed several roads after Israeli artillery fire was used to prevent displaced people from reaching certain areas.</cite> Do not rush home to south Lebanon. The roads are not safe and homes may be destroyed or inaccessible.

LEBANESE POLITICAL REACTIONS

<cite index=”370-1″>President Aoun welcomed the US-Iran deal. Araghchi stressed “importance of respecting Lebanon’s sovereignty” in a call with Aoun. Aoun said the US-Iran deal affirmed Lebanon as an “integral part” of regional stability.</cite>

<cite index=”367-1″>Nabih Berri (Parliament Speaker, Amal Movement) thanked Tehran and Washington for including a clause stipulating a halt to Israeli aggression against Lebanon.</cite>

Lebanon was NOT formally informed of the deal before it was announced — an AFP official source confirmed Lebanon learned of the deal from media reports. This underscores the sovereignty concern Aoun has repeatedly raised.

<cite index=”370-1″>Macron says the G7 summit (currently underway in Evian-les-Bains, France) will discuss Iran, Lebanon and Hormuz.</cite>

📅 JUNE 14–15 KEY TIMELINE

🗺️ JUNE 15 GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE ASSESSMENT

🚗 JUNE 15 TRAVEL STATUS

📊 JUNE 15 STATISTICS — WAR DAY 106

🔑 KEY STATEMENTS — JUNE 15, 2026

🛡️ CIS SECURITY — JUNE 15 ASSESSMENT & GUIDANCE

Trusted Security Excellence Since 1990 | “Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional”

⬇️ CIS POSTURE: LEVEL 3 — ELEVATED (Reduced from Level 4)

CIS reduces posture from Level 4 (High Alert) to Level 3 (Elevated) for the first time since War Day 1. The digital signing of the MOU, the confirmation of a formal Geneva ceremony on June 19, the significant easing of fighting in Lebanon on June 15, and the S&P and oil market movements all represent genuine, substantial de-escalation.

However, Level 3 is not Level 1. The reasons for sustained caution are real:

• Israel is not bound by the Lebanon clause
• Katz has confirmed troops remain in Lebanon indefinitely
• One person was killed in south Lebanon today
• Hezbollah fired on IDF positions today
• Beirut’s Dahiyeh was struck Sunday — the same day the MOU was signed
• Lebanese Army is blocking roads to south Lebanon after Israeli artillery fire
• US port blockade of Iran remains in effect until June 19
• Dozens of south Lebanon villages are still under evacuation orders
• Tens of thousands of homes are destroyed or inaccessible

The war has eased. It has not ended. Not yet in Lebanon.

FOR DISPLACED LEBANESE — THE FIVE SIGNALS UPDATE (FROM OUR JUNE 13 INDEX)

CIS established five signals required before advising south Lebanon return. Here is the June 15 status:

Current status: 0 of 5 signals fully met. Return assessment only — do not move household or full family.

PRACTICAL GUIDANCE — JUNE 15

If you want to check on your south Lebanon home:

• Travel with a second person; do not go alone
• Coordinate with Lebanese Army checkpoints in advance (+961-8-802-510 — Army south Lebanon liaison)
• Do not attempt roads blocked by army (Haris/Bint Jbeil area, Nabatieh–Kfar Reman road)
• Do not approach the Yellow Line or IDF-occupied villages under any circumstances — IDF troops are still there and armed
• Return to safety before dark — situation can deteriorate rapidly
• Do not bring your family and household until the five signals above are met

Beirut businesses: Resume normal operations with general vigilance. Airport operating. Markets improving. Supply chain pressure beginning to ease as Hormuz deal approaches June 19 implementation.

Dahiyeh: Do not treat the deal as security clearance for Dahiyeh. Israel struck Dahiyeh on the same day as the MOU signing. Avoid the area.

JUNE 19 AND JUNE 22 — THE TWO KEY DATES

June 19 — Geneva Formal Signing: The formal signing of the MOU between Vance (US) and Iranian representatives in Geneva, Switzerland. Upon signing, the US military will lift the Iranian port blockade and Hormuz will begin reopening. This is the economic turning point Lebanon has been waiting for — fuel prices, supply chain, and the dollar will all respond.

June 22 — Washington Talks (Lebanon’s own track): This is Lebanon’s sovereign diplomatic event. Unlike the US-Iran MOU (which Lebanon was not informed of), the June 22 talks are between Lebanon and Israel, with the US facilitating. These talks will determine whether the IDF begins any withdrawal process from the 55+ occupied villages. This is the critical date for south Lebanon’s future. CIS will publish a full briefing before June 22.

📞 EMERGENCY CONTACTS — JUNE 15, 2026

CIS Security 24/7: +961-3-539900 | info@cissecurity.net | www.cissecurity.net Lebanese Army South Lebanon Liaison: +961-8-802-510 US Embassy Emergency: +1-202-501-4444 | BeirutACS@state.gov Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 Civil Defence: 125 ISF: 112 National Mental Health Lifeline: 1564 (24/7 — confidential)

⚠️ FINAL ASSESSMENT — WAR DAY 106, JUNE 15, 2026

The deal is signed. The war is easing. Lebanon is returning. And finding ruins.

The US-Iran MOU — the Islamabad Declaration — was digitally signed on Sunday June 14. It includes Lebanon. Oil fell 5%. The S&P rose 1.9%. Hormuz will open on June 19. Fighting in Lebanon eased significantly today for the first time in 106 days.

And yet: a man was killed in Kfar Tibnit by a drone today. Hezbollah fired on IDF positions. Israel struck Dahiyeh on Sunday — the same evening the MOU was being signed. Netanyahu told Trump Israel is not bound by the Lebanon clause. Katz said the IDF will stay in south Lebanon indefinitely. Lebanon learned about the deal from the news.

Mohammed Daqdouq walked through what was left of Nabatieh on Monday morning and said it would take a lifetime to rebuild. Imad Komeyha drove 12 hours to find his house demolished.

The deal is the beginning of the end of this war. June 19 is the formal signature. June 22 is Lebanon’s own chance to negotiate its future. The next weeks will determine whether the end of the US-Iran war becomes the beginning of south Lebanon’s recovery — or whether Israel’s “indefinite” occupation and Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm keep Lebanon in the crossfire for months more.

CIS Security is reducing posture to Level 3 today — the first reduction since the war began. We will raise it immediately if conditions deteriorate. We will lower it further when the June 19 and June 22 milestones are met.

We remain at your service, 24/7.

+961-3-539900 | info@cissecurity.net | cissecurity.net CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn’t Optional — Est. 1990

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ | Monday June 15 / Tuesday June 16, 2026 | WAR DAY 106 Sources: CNN “June 15, 2026 — Trump and Vance virtually sign US-Iran agreement” (June 15, 2026 — MOU digitally signed Sunday June 14; Trump + Vance US side; Ghalibaf Iran side; formal ceremony Geneva Friday June 19; “about a page and a half” Vance; IAEA inspectors return; $300 billion fund discussed; Netanyahu “do not always see eye to eye” Trump; no withdrawal Lebanon Gaza Syria; Israeli-Hezbollah fighting continued Monday); ABC News “Trump Iran agree memorandum of understanding opening Strait of Hormuz what is in 60-day deal” (June 15, 2026 — digital signatures confirmed senior US administration official; formal signing Geneva Switzerland Friday; details released within 24-48 hours; Israel withdrawing Lebanon “not a condition of the deal”; “not one-way ceasefire” senior admin official; Vance attending Friday; Trump “depends” whether he attends; “pretty soon” text release after Friday); NPR “US and Iran announce initial deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz” (June 15, 2026 — Trump “deal’s all signed” Macron bilateral G7 Evian; Iran Supreme National Security Council “difficult and intensive period of negotiations several months”; S&P +1.9% oil -5%; Strait of Hormuz “fully open by Friday” Trump; Katz Israel keep troops southern Lebanon indefinitely); France24 “Middle East live Trump says Iran deal has been signed text after Friday ceremony” (June 15, 2026 — US military advisory blockade Iranian ports remains in effect until June 19 “do not attempt to cross until explicit direction given”; Von der Leyen EU sanctions real change before lifting; Vance may release text before Friday per Fox News; multiple G7 discussions Iran Lebanon Hormuz); Times of Israel liveblog June 15, 2026 (Pezeshkian confirms Friday signing “memorandum of understanding to end war between Iran and America”; 1 killed Kfar Tebnit drone strike car driver NNA; reporter wounded Kfar Tibnit 3 Israeli attacks; displaced people packing belongings preparing return Sidon AP photo Mohammed Zaatari; Israeli Lebanese flags near border destroyed buildings AP photo Leo Correa; Netanyahu “saved Israel from annihilation” press conference; Naftali Bennett press conference Tel Aviv; Vance UFC Freedom 250 White House South Lawn AP photo Schiefelbein; Trump G7 Evian AP photo Vadim Ghirda; Netanyahu requested court hearing shortened rejected judges); Naharnet June 15, 2026 (Araghchi stresses “importance of respecting Lebanon’s sovereignty” call with Aoun; 1 killed many hurt including reporter 3 Israeli attacks Kfartebnit; Macron G7 will discuss Iran Lebanon Hormuz June 15 10:47; Aoun US-Iran deal affirmed Lebanon “integral part” region stability June 15 12:35; Netanyahu reportedly tells Trump Israel “not bound” Lebanon clause Iran deal June 15 13:17; Hezbollah fires missiles toward outskirts Kfar Tibnit Nabatieh district fighting ongoing correspondent confirmed; IDF intercepted rockets; Chinese FM Lin Jian welcomed MOU praised Pakistan); L’Orient Today / LOT June 15 updated 22:04 (Katz “Israel will not withdraw from territories seized in Lebanon”; Katz Iran “has no interest in retaliating” Lebanon events; Lebanon NOT informed agreement Iran US official source AFP; Nabih Berri thanked Tehran Washington Lebanon clause; Lebanese Army closed roads Haris Bint Jbeil Israeli tanks; Haj Dib Attieh station); Al Jazeera “At least three killed as Israel attacks southern Beirut” (June 14, 2026 — 3 killed Dahiyeh Sunday; 7 wounded civil defence; Netanyahu office “Hezbollah targets” response to firings; Hezbollah 3 projectiles northern Israel “blatant ceasefire violation”; 29 forced displacement orders Sunday 25 Nabatieh 4 Sidon; Jbaa Houmin al-Tahta Ansar Kfar Sir; Heidi Pett “focus is on Nabatieh” “one of only hospitals still functioning in south” “pounded by Israeli air strikes leading to widespread destruction”; prospect Iran-US deal fuelled anxiety across Lebanon; after April ceasefire Lebanon suffered deadliest day 350 killed); CBC News “Lebanon fighting eases after US-Iran deal but displaced warned not to rush home” (June 15, 2026 Reuters — fighting eased significantly not halted; 1 killed Kfar Tibnit; Hezbollah drones rockets IDF vehicles “trying to push deeper”; first attack since deal; IDF intercepted rockets; nearly 3,800 killed 1.2 million displaced; Mohammed Daqdouq Nabatieh “we’ll need a lifetime to rebuild”; Lebanese Army closed roads; Israeli artillery blocked displaced people); NBC News “After Lebanon ceasefire people displaced by Israeli strikes return to what’s left of their homes” (June 15, 2026 — Imad Komeyha Kfar Sir 12 hours travel house demolished; “I am devastated”; son baby downstairs house also gone; Komeyha photo supplied; 1 million displaced Israel invasion March Hezbollah rockets US-Israeli war Iran; Trump announced leaders Israel Lebanon 10-day ceasefire many found only destruction April 20 context); Wikipedia “January 2025 southern Lebanon attack” (historical precedent — 26 civilians killed 147 wounded January 26-27 2025 IDF fired on returning civilians; relevant warning for June 15 returnees). All Lebanon casualty figures from Lebanese Ministry of Public Health and NNA. All diplomatic statements from named officials. Market data from NPR/CNN June 15. Index compiled: Monday June 15 / Tuesday June 16, 2026 — Beirut time.