CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX – June 25 2026

Thursday, June 25, 2026

🕊️⚔️ WAR DAY 118 — “FIRST TIME IN 30 YEARS”: ISRAEL-LEBANON TALKS NEAR “COMMITMENT OF INTENT” — ISRAEL TAKES “CONCRETE STEP,” PARTIALLY PULLS BACK FROM BUFFER ZONE — BUT 3 MORE KILLED TODAY, LEBANESE ARMY SAYS GROUND REALITY IS “OPPOSITE OF A PULLBACK” — FRANCE & ITALY TO BUILD POST-UNIFIL COALITION

INDEX LEVEL: 🟡 MEDIUM — COOLING FROM CRISIS PEAK, BUT OCCUPATION AND SPORADIC KILLINGS CONTINUE OVERALL NATIONAL INDEX: 58/100 TREND: ⬇️ DE-ESCALATING FROM 64 (JUNE 21) — THE FIFTH ROUND OF DIRECT ISRAEL-LEBANON TALKS CONCLUDED IN WASHINGTON TODAY WITH SECRETARY RUBIO SAYING THE TWO SIDES ARE “VERY CLOSE” TO A “COMMITMENT OF INTENT” — THE FIRST TIME IN 30 YEARS LEBANON’S SOVEREIGN GOVERNMENT HAS SPOKEN DIRECTLY WITH ISRAEL’S. ISRAEL TOOK A “CONCRETE STEP,” PARTIALLY PULLING BACK FROM PART OF ITS SOUTH LEBANON BUFFER ZONE. BUT A SENIOR LEBANESE MILITARY OFFICIAL SAYS GROUND DEVELOPMENTS SHOW “THE OPPOSITE OF A PULLBACK,” AND THREE MORE LEBANESE WERE KILLED TODAY ALONE.

🌐 SITUATION OVERVIEW — THURSDAY JUNE 25, 2026

TODAY MARKS THE CONCLUSION OF THE FIFTH ROUND OF DIRECT ISRAEL-LEBANON TALKS IN WASHINGTON — AND THE CLEAREST SIGNAL YET THAT BOTH GOVERNMENTS ARE EDGING, HOWEVER SLOWLY, TOWARD A FRAMEWORK FOR DE-ESCALATION, EVEN AS ISRAELI FORCES CONTINUE TO KILL LEBANESE CIVILIANS AND HEZBOLLAH-LINKED FIGHTERS ON THE GROUND DAILY.

After three days of talks in Washington — spanning political and military tracks, the first since the US-Iran MOU was signed — Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Bahrain that the two governments are “very close in our hopes of getting a commitment of intent” between Israel and Lebanon. He called it historic: “For the first time in 30 years, the sovereign government of Lebanon is speaking to the government of Israel directly.”

A senior US State Department official told Reuters that Israel had taken a “concrete step” as part of the negotiations, pulling back from part of the buffer zone it has held in southern Lebanon since the war began. This is the first reported physical withdrawal — even if partial — since the fighting started on March 2.

But the picture on the ground tells a more contested story. A senior Lebanese military official told Reuters that recent developments showed “the opposite of a pullback.” Israeli government spokesman David Mencer reiterated Thursday that Israel “will not withdraw our forces from southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah remains a threat, is not disarmed and demilitarised” — and that any redeployment comes “after, not before,” Hezbollah’s disarmament. Defense Minister Israel Katz separately said Israel must remain in its “security zone in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza” indefinitely.

And even as the talks concluded, the killing continued: three people were killed Thursday when an Israeli strike hit a car on the road between Zawtar and Mayfadoun in Nabatieh Governorate. Israeli forces also burned houses in the town of Ain Arab after evacuation warnings. Lebanon’s cumulative death toll since March 2 has now reached 4,230 killed and 12,179 wounded.

Separately and significantly, France and Italy announced today that they will lead efforts to build a multinational coalition to succeed UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, whose mandate is set to expire December 31, 2026 — a sign that European powers are already planning for a post-UNIFIL security architecture in the south, regardless of how the current talks resolve.

CIS Security assesses today’s developments as genuine, if fragile, diplomatic progress — but cautions that “commitment of intent” remains a long way from an actual, verified Israeli withdrawal, and that civilians are still dying in targeted strikes even as negotiators describe “good progress” in Washington.

📊 CIS SECURITY INDEX — JUNE 25, 2026

WHY 58/100: The index has cooled substantially from the post-MOU weekend crisis (64 on June 21), reflecting four consecutive days without mass-casualty escalation, a genuine partial Israeli pullback, and the most positive diplomatic signal yet — Rubio’s “commitment of intent” language and direct Lebanon-Israel dialogue for the first time in three decades. WHY NOT LOWER: Israeli strikes and shootings continue to kill Lebanese civilians and fighters on a near-daily basis (2 killed June 23, 2 killed June 24, 3 killed June 25), an Israeli soldier was reportedly killed in “operational activity” in south Lebanon today, Israel has explicitly refused to set any withdrawal timetable, and a senior Lebanese military source describes the ground reality as moving in the opposite direction from what diplomats are describing.

🚨 ALL BREAKING DEVELOPMENTS — JUNE 22–25, 2026

🕊️ #1 — FIFTH ROUND OF ISRAEL-LEBANON TALKS CONCLUDES: “VERY CLOSE” TO A “COMMITMENT OF INTENT”

[Al Jazeera, CBC, Reuters — confirmed June 23–25]

The fifth round of direct Israel-Lebanon negotiations ran for three days at the US State Department in Washington (Tuesday June 23 through Thursday June 25), the first such session since the US-Iran MOU was signed. Talks were structured with a joint political-military opening session, followed by a dedicated military session, then a closing political round.

Opening positions were sharply divergent. Israeli Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter opened by warning the talks were “heading toward a train wreck,” criticizing Washington’s decision to fold a Lebanon ceasefire commitment into the broader US-Iran MOU: “The basic premise [of these talks] was that Iran was not involved… Its role is to get out of Lebanon. The role of the Lebanese government is to exercise its sovereignty.” He separately criticized the newly created US-Iran “de-confliction cell” as an attempt to curb Israel’s ability to operate against Hezbollah.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, opening from Beirut, struck an equally firm tone: “We accept nothing less than an end to the Israeli occupation and at the same time, the fall of foreign tutelage… our only option is our national sovereignty and our sole wager is on the Lebanese state.” He added Lebanon would settle for nothing less than “the full restoration of Lebanon’s sovereignty over every grain of its soil.”

By Thursday, the tone from the US side had shifted toward cautious optimism. Rubio, speaking to reporters during a visit to Bahrain: “I think we are very close in our hopes of getting a commitment of intent between the two countries. It’ll be a process, it’ll take some time, it’ll take a lot of work, but I can tell you that for the first time in 30 years, the sovereign government of Lebanon is speaking to the government of Israel directly.”

The core subject under discussion: a US-backed proposal for Israel to hand over some of the territory it occupied during the war to the Lebanese military — described by some officials as a revival of the “pilot zones” concept from the June 2-3 framework. Israeli officials reportedly said Lebanese troops involved would undergo US training and vetting to ensure no links to Hezbollah; Israel would maintain a residual presence in a border buffer zone. Lebanese President Aoun confirmed that determination of specific “model areas” remains under discussion “pending approval from the Israeli side.”

🟡 #2 — ISRAEL TAKES “CONCRETE STEP” — PARTIAL PULLBACK FROM BUFFER ZONE — BUT LEBANESE MILITARY SAYS GROUND REALITY IS “THE OPPOSITE”

[Al Jazeera, Reuters — confirmed June 25]

A US State Department official told Reuters that, as part of the latest round of talks, Israel had pulled back from part of a buffer zone in southern Lebanon — described as a “concrete step” toward the broader territorial handover proposal under discussion.

This is significant: it would represent the first physical, verifiable Israeli withdrawal of any kind since the war began on March 2.

However, a senior Lebanese military official directly disputed this characterization, telling Reuters that developments on the ground in recent days had shown “the opposite of a pullback.” Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr, reporting from Nabatieh, explained the apparent contradiction: Israeli forces have not been able to occupy certain front-line villages outside Nabatieh during weeks of fighting, but want to “control them by fire” instead — using drone strikes, stun grenades, and warning fire to keep residents and Lebanese forces away, without physically holding the ground. “The more territory you control, the more leverage you have in negotiations,” Khodr said, summarizing the Israeli military’s apparent calculation.

Israeli officials were explicit that no broader withdrawal is imminent. Government spokesman David Mencer: “We are making extremely clear that our responsibility is to our northern citizens and to the whole of Israel, and we will not allow any terrorist force anywhere near our border — which means that any redeployment of forces comes after, not before, but after the demilitarisation of southern Lebanon and the disarming of Hezbollah.” Defense Minister Israel Katz, separately: Israel will remain in its “security zones” in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza “for as long as necessary,” with no timetable set for withdrawal from any of the three.

🔴 #3 — CONTINUED KILLINGS DURING THE TALKS: JUNE 23, 24, AND 25

[CBC, Al Jazeera — confirmed June 23–25]

Despite the diplomatic progress, lethal incidents continued on each day of the talks:

Tuesday, June 23 — Nabatieh al-Fawqa shooting: Israeli soldiers opened machine-gun fire on a group of people standing near an excavator clearing a road in the al-Deir neighborhood of Nabatieh al-Fawqa. Two men were killed. The Israeli military said it had fired warning shots at four people on a bulldozer and motorcycle who had crossed into the Israeli-held zone, describing them as “Hezbollah terrorists operating under civilian cover,” and that it escalated to “additional fire” after they continued to approach. Hezbollah called it a “treacherous attack” and a “blatant” ceasefire violation, but did not say whether it would respond militarily. These were the first deaths from Israeli fire in Lebanon in three days — breaking what had been a fragile calm since Sunday, June 21. The mayor of Nabatieh al-Fawqa, Zein Ghandour, said residents had begun cautiously returning to check on their homes but were being urged to stay away following the shooting.

Iran’s reaction: Iran’s UN ambassador in Geneva, Ali Bahreini, warned that any violation of the MOU in Lebanon “would create challenges for peace talks,” adding: “Lebanon is an unquestionable part of the agreement, and whatever happens in Lebanon affects the whole process, and it is the United States which should use all its leverage against Israel to make it to stop attacks against Lebanon.”

Wednesday, June 24: The IDF said it killed several alleged Hezbollah members around the security zone in two separate incidents — five “terrorists” identified in Zawtar al-Sharqiyah, and one armed individual near the Ali al-Taher Ridge. Israeli forces also issued evacuation warnings for the town of Ain Arab ahead of a 5 p.m. deadline.

Thursday, June 25 (today): Israeli forces struck a car on the road between Zawtar and Mayfadoun in Nabatieh Governorate, killing three and wounding one. Lebanon’s National News Agency separately reported that Israeli forces burned a number of houses in Ain Arab after the Wednesday evacuation deadline passed. Separately, Lebanese media (Naharnet ticker) reported the Israeli army confirmed one of its own soldiers killed in “operational activity” in south Lebanon today — the latest in a string of Israeli military fatalities since the MOU was signed.

Cumulative toll: Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health confirmed that since the conflict began March 2, 4,230 people have been killed and 12,179 wounded — an increase of more than 120 deaths since the figures reported as of June 21 (4,106 dead), reflecting the continuing, if reduced-tempo, lethality of the post-MOU period.

🌍 #4 — FRANCE AND ITALY ANNOUNCE PLAN FOR POST-UNIFIL MULTINATIONAL COALITION

[Daily Sabah, Naharnet, Middle East Eye, Élysée — confirmed June 25]

In a structurally significant announcement separate from the Washington talks, French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni announced after bilateral talks in Antibes, France, that the two countries will lead efforts to build a multinational coalition to succeed UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping force whose mandate the UN Security Council — under US pressure — voted last August to end on December 31, 2026.

Macron: “We want to launch a coalition for the post-UNIFIL arrangement, obviously in coordination with the European Union and the United Nations, to strengthen Lebanon’s sovereignty and that of its armed forces.” He added the new force would help prevent Lebanon’s territory from becoming “a foothold for regional escalation.”

Meloni: “Italy and France can absolutely make a difference. From our point of view, it is necessary to ensure an international presence that avoids an extremely dangerous security vacuum.”

The official Franco-Italian joint statement specified that the two countries will support the establishment of a CSDP (EU Common Security and Defence Policy) mission to Lebanon by fall 2026, working alongside existing mechanisms such as the MTC4L and consistent with bilateral initiatives already underway, while continuing to “strongly support UNIFIL” through the remainder of its mandate.

Context: UNIFIL currently deploys roughly 7,500 peacekeepers from nearly 50 countries along the Blue Line in south Lebanon — a presence dating to 1978 that has not prevented repeated outbreaks of conflict, including the current war. France is among UNIFIL’s largest troop contributors. This announcement signals that European powers are already actively planning for a security vacuum scenario in southern Lebanon once the current UN mandate lapses at year’s end, regardless of how the Washington-Geneva diplomatic tracks resolve in the interim.

🟡 #5 — REGIONAL CONTEXT: HORMUZ VESSEL ATTACK RAISES NEW TENSION

[France 24, Gulf News — confirmed June 25]

In a development with potential knock-on implications for the broader US-Iran-Lebanon diplomatic architecture, the UN’s maritime agency suspended ship evacuations through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday after an unknown projectile struck a cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman, roughly 7.5 nautical miles southeast of Oman’s coast — damaging the bridge but causing no casualties. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority subsequently warned that vessels passing outside its designated routes would not be guaranteed safe passage, adding that consequences from doing so would be the responsibility of the vessel’s owner, operator, and commander.

This incident is not confirmed to be linked to the Lebanon front, but given that the same MOU and “de-confliction” architecture governs both the Strait of Hormuz and the Lebanon ceasefire, any deterioration in the Hormuz situation carries risk of spilling over into, or distracting from, the fragile Lebanon track. Separately, Rubio met Gulf foreign ministers this week, securing a joint statement emphasizing that lasting regional peace requires addressing “the full spectrum of Iran’s threats, including its ballistic missiles, drones, and support of proxies in the region” — language widely understood to include Hezbollah.

🟡 #6 — LEBANESE POLITICAL REACTIONS — MIXED SIGNALS ON THE GROUND

[Naharnet ticker, Al Jazeera — confirmed June 24–25]

A range of Lebanese officials offered competing assessments of where things stand as the talks concluded:

• US Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa reportedly said Israel will withdraw from Lebanon “sooner or later.”
• Hezbollah parliamentary bloc figure Hassan Fadlallah stated that “any concession won’t be accepted” and that Hezbollah “knows how to face Israel violations.”
• A Lebanese military delegation reportedly refused to be photographed alongside Israeli counterparts during the Washington talks, citing respect for fallen Lebanese soldiers — an illustration of how politically fraught even the optics of these negotiations remain domestically.
• Lebanon’s GDP is expected to contract in 2026, according to the IMF, which cited the “very challenging” economic, social, and humanitarian situation caused by the war’s resumption; the IMF said it continues working with Lebanese authorities on crisis-management measures.

📅 KEY EVENTS TIMELINE — JUNE 22–25, 2026

🗺️ GOVERNORATE-BY-GOVERNORATE ASSESSMENT — JUNE 25, 2026

🏙️ 1. BEIRUT — 30/100 — 🟢 LOW

Status: SUBSTANTIALLY SAFE | Airport: FULLY OPERATIONAL

No direct strikes on Beirut proper during this period. Normal commercial and residential activity continues; airport fully operational.

🏞️ 2. MOUNT LEBANON — 20/100 — ⚪ MINIMAL

Status: SAFE. No incidents.

🌊 3. NORTH LEBANON — 16/100 — ⚪ MINIMAL

Status: SAFE. No incidents.

🌲 4. AKKAR — 20/100 — ⚪ MINIMAL

Status: SAFE. No incidents.

🏛️ 5. KESERWAN-JBEIL — 16/100 — ⚪ MINIMAL

Status: SAFE. No incidents.

🍇 6. BEQAA VALLEY — 55/100 — 🟡 MEDIUM (Cooling)

Status: REDUCED TENSION

No major new strikes reported in the Beqaa during this period, following the prior weekend’s escalation around Hezbollah command centers. Risk remains elevated relative to baseline but has cooled from the immediate post-MOU spike.

Assessment: Zahleh and central Beqaa — standard caution. Eastern Beqaa near Hezbollah infrastructure — avoid non-essential travel.

🕌 7. BAALBEK-HERMEL — 60/100 — 🟡 MEDIUM (Cooling)

Status: ELEVATED RISK, COOLING

No new major incidents reported in this period. Continues to carry elevated baseline risk given regional Hezbollah infrastructure.

Assessment: Avoid non-essential travel.

⛪ 8. NABATIEH — 82/100 — 🟠 HIGH (Down from Critical)

Status: HIGH RISK — DAILY TARGETED INCIDENTS CONTINUE; PARTIAL ISRAELI PULLBACK CLAIMED BUT UNVERIFIED

Nabatieh and its surrounding villages remain the focal point of nearly all reported violence in this period: the Nabatieh al-Fawqa shooting (2 killed, June 23), the Zawtar/Ali al-Taher strikes (June 24), and today’s Zawtar-Mayfadoun car strike (3 killed) plus the Ain Arab house burnings. Al Jazeera’s correspondent describes Israeli forces using drone strikes and stun grenades to deter residents and Lebanese forces from approaching front-line villages it could not fully occupy during weeks of ground combat — effectively controlling territory “by fire” rather than physical presence.

Assessment: DO NOT ENTER front-line villages around Nabatieh (Zawtar al-Sharqiyah/Gharbiyah, Mayfadoun, Ain Arab, the Ali al-Taher Ridge area, Nabatieh al-Fawqa) under any circumstances. Lethal incidents are occurring on a near-daily basis in this specific corridor even as broader fighting has subsided.

🌴 9. SOUTH LEBANON — 80/100 — 🟠 HIGH (Down from Critical)

Status: HIGH RISK — OCCUPATION CONTINUES; PARTIAL PULLBACK CLAIMED, DISPUTED ON GROUND

The broader south Lebanon security zone remains under Israeli control, with explicit statements from Israeli officials (Mencer, Katz) that no general withdrawal will occur absent Hezbollah’s disarmament. The claimed “concrete step” pullback from part of the buffer zone has not been independently verified and is directly disputed by a senior Lebanese military source.

Assessment: Continue to treat south Lebanon south of Sidon, and especially areas within the declared security zone, as HIGH DANGER. Any reports of Israeli withdrawal should be treated as unconfirmed pending independent verification. Contact CIS Security before any movement.

📊 ACTOR STATUS TABLE — JUNE 25, 2026

🛡️ CIS SECURITY — ASSESSMENT & GUIDANCE

CIS Security 24/7: +961-3-539900 | www.cissecurity.net | WhatsApp: wa.me/9613539900 Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 | Mine Action: 01-613920 | Civil Defence: 125

🟠 PRIORITY 1: NABATIEH FRONT-LINE VILLAGES — DAILY LETHAL INCIDENTS CONTINUE Despite the broader de-escalation, the corridor of villages around Nabatieh (Zawtar, Mayfadoun, Ain Arab, Ali al-Taher Ridge, Nabatieh al-Fawqa) has seen a lethal incident every single day this week. Do not approach these areas under any circumstances, regardless of any reported “calm” elsewhere.

🟡 PRIORITY 2: DO NOT TREAT THE “PULLBACK” AS VERIFIED US officials describe a “concrete step” Israeli withdrawal from part of the buffer zone; Lebanese military sources directly dispute this characterization. CIS Security advises against any change in travel posture toward south Lebanon based on these reports until independently verified on the ground.

🕊️ PRIORITY 3: GENUINE DIPLOMATIC MOMENTUM — BUT NO WITHDRAWAL TIMETABLE EXISTS The “commitment of intent” language from Secretary Rubio is the most positive diplomatic signal of the post-MOU period. However, Israel has explicitly and repeatedly stated there is no timetable for full withdrawal, conditioning any redeployment on Hezbollah’s disarmament — a condition Hezbollah has shown no sign of accepting. Treat this as a long-term process, not an imminent change to ground conditions.

🌍 PRIORITY 4: MONITOR POST-UNIFIL PLANNING The France/Italy announcement of a post-UNIFIL coalition signals that European powers are preparing for the possibility that no durable Israel-Hezbollah settlement exists by the time UNIFIL’s mandate ends December 31, 2026. This is a longer-term structural development CIS Security will continue tracking.

✅ PRIORITY 5: BEIRUT, MOUNT LEBANON, NORTH LEBANON, AKKAR, KESERWAN-JBEIL — NORMAL CONDITIONS These zones remain safe with normal commercial and residential life continuing. Airport fully operational.

⚠️ FINAL ASSESSMENT — JUNE 25, 2026

For the first time in this conflict’s diplomatic history, a senior US official used the words “commitment of intent” to describe where Israel and Lebanon now stand — and noted, correctly, that the two governments are speaking directly for the first time in three decades. That is a genuine milestone, regardless of how far it ultimately goes.

But three Lebanese civilians died today on a road between two villages most outsiders have never heard of. A Lebanese military delegation refused to pose for a photo with their Israeli counterparts out of respect for soldiers killed in this same war. And the one Israeli official with the clearest line of sight into actual conditions on the ground — a senior Lebanese military source — says what’s happening in southern Lebanon right now is the opposite of what Washington is describing.

Both things are true simultaneously. The diplomatic architecture is the most developed it has been since the war began: a signed MOU, a de-confliction cell, a fifth round of direct bilateral talks, and now a stated “commitment of intent.” The military reality on the ground is that Israel has set no withdrawal timetable, continues to kill people in and around Nabatieh on a near-daily basis, and is — by its own logic, as explained by Al Jazeera’s correspondent on the ground — deliberately maintaining “control by fire” over villages it could not fully occupy, precisely because that leverage is useful at the negotiating table.

CIS Security’s assessment is that the war has entered a new phase — lower-intensity, more diplomatically managed, but not over. The index reflects that cooling. It does not reflect peace.

CIS Lebanon Security Index™ | Thursday, June 25, 2026 | WAR DAY 118

Sources: Al Jazeera (June 23-25, 2026 — “Israeli fire kills two in Lebanon as Hezbollah slams truce ‘violation'”; Nabatieh al-Fawqa shooting details, Hezbollah and IDF statements, mayor Zein Ghandour quote, Iran’s Bahreini statement; “Israel kills three in Lebanon as Rubio praises progress in Washington talks”; Rubio “commitment of intent” quotes; “concrete step” pullback per US State Dept official; Lebanese military official “opposite of a pullback”; Mencer and Katz statements; Zeina Khodr Nabatieh reporting on “control by fire”; casualty figures 4,230 dead/12,179 wounded; France/Italy UNIFIL succession announcement; “What Israeli and Lebanese officials are saying before Washington talks” — Leiter “train wreck,” Aoun sovereignty statements, talks structure); CBC News (June 23 — “Israeli gunfire kills 2 in south Lebanon, testing Iran-linked ceasefire” — full incident details, Bahreini quotes, Netanyahu “as long as is necessary” statement, 1.2 million displaced figure); CNN (June 23-24 — “Israel-Lebanon Washington talks debate US military handover plan” framing, pilot project discussion); Jerusalem Post (June 23-24 — “Israel-Lebanon talks include discussion of US-backed proposal for Israeli forces to hand over… territory to the Lebanese military”; Danny Danon UN remarks on transferring territory, training/vetting of LAF units, Litani River withdrawal goal); Express Tribune (June 24 — “Lebanon, Israel explore pilot security zones” — Danon quotes, military-to-military talks Wednesday); Daily Sabah/Naharnet/Middle East Eye/Free Malaysia Today (June 25 — France/Italy post-UNIFIL coalition announcement, Macron and Meloni quotes, Antibes summit, UNIFIL troop numbers); Élysée official Franco-Italian joint statement (June 25 — CSDP mission to Lebanon fall 2026, MTC4L reference); France 24 live blog (June 25 — Hormuz vessel attack in Gulf of Oman, UN evacuation suspension, Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority warning, Mencer “not for a limited time” quote, IMF Lebanon GDP contraction statement); Gulf News (June 25 — “Israel says troops will stay in Lebanon as Hormuz attack raises tensions”); Naharnet news ticker (June 25 — Fadlallah “any concession won’t be accepted,” Issa “sooner or later” withdrawal comment, IDF soldier killed in “operational activity,” military delegation photo refusal); Wikipedia “Timeline of the 2026 Lebanon War” and “2026 Israel–Lebanon peace talks” (June 25 — corroborating casualty figures and talks structure, 5th round scheduling June 23-25).

All Lebanese casualty figures from Lebanese Ministry of Public Health and Lebanese Civil Defence. IDF statements from official IDF Spokesperson and government spokesman David Mencer. Rubio statements from US State Department press remarks, Bahrain, June 25, 2026. Macron and Meloni statements from official remarks, Antibes, France, June 25, 2026.

Index compiled: Thursday, June 25, 2026 — sources current as of late afternoon Beirut time.

CIS Security 24/7: +961-3-539900 | www.cissecurity.net | WhatsApp: wa.me/9613539900