Lebanon Security Index — October 25, 2026

قراءة النسخة العربية من النشرة

WAR DAY 238 · TRUCE DAY 128 · October 25, 2026 · OVERALL INDEX: 73/100 (HIGH)

Confirmed October 26, 2026: this edition was compiled at 15:15 as provisional. After eight late incidents were coded, the October 26 edition confirmed these scores as final without change (national 73; Nabatieh 73, South Lebanon 65).

War Day 238 · Truce Day 128 · Compiled October 25, 15:15 Beirut (covers Oct 24 after 18:00 → Oct 25, ~12:30) · Methodology v2.1 EDITION CONFIDENCE: LOW (collection gap) · SCORE STATUS: PROVISIONAL (compiled before the day's end; south reporting available to late morning only). October 24 scores are now FINAL and revised upward (see Corrections).

INDEX DASHBOARD

BLUF — BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT

• What happened: The quiet reporting of yesterday afternoon was a gap, as flagged. October 24 brought at least five Israeli jet strikes within an hour, strikes on homes in four villages, artillery on ten localities and demolitions in five; a projectile dropped from an aircraft landed near olive harvesters in Wadi Hujeir. On October 25, two Merkava tanks advanced near Aita al-Jabal and opened machine-gun fire toward the town while residents were picking olives, and drone and jet strikes hit Kfar Tibnit and Wadi Hujeir. No one was reported hurt. The US State Department repeated its Level 4 "do not travel" advice, warning that "drone and missile strikes may occur throughout the country, including in Beirut."
• What it means: October 24 is revised up to 72, and today's provisional level is 73. Fire around civilians working their land, twice in 24 hours, raises the Civilian hazard watch to SEVERE (unscored). Israel's drills (Oct 25–26) and election (Oct 27) keep the escalation watch at its highest setting.
• What to do: Farmers in the border districts should harvest only with a Lebanese Army escort and leave at once if tanks or drones approach. Expect loud military activity in the south today and tomorrow. In Beirut there is no evacuation order; keep your family plan ready through October 27.

Quick answer — Is Lebanon safe today (October 25, 2026)? The far south is HIGH risk (Nabatieh 73, South Lebanon 65, provisional), with daily strikes and fire near civilians but no casualties reported for six days. Beirut is LOW (36); no evacuation order is in force, though the US advisory warns strikes could occur anywhere, including Beirut. Baalbek-Hermel (30), Beqaa (29), Mount Lebanon (26), Keserwan-Jbeil (21) are LOW; North (17) and Akkar (16) are MINIMAL. No disruption at Beirut airport has been reported.

GOVERNORATE MATRIX

ʳ = revised (Oct 24 provisional 71/63 → final 72/64). Scale: MINIMAL 0–20 · LOW 21–40 · MEDIUM 41–60 · HIGH 61–80 · CRITICAL 81–100. Methodology →

HOTSPOT TRACKER — where the pressure is concentrated (Oct 21–25)

Coded incidents naming the locality; tallies covering unnamed villages are excluded.

Reading: the belt from Kfar Tibnit to Zawtar Sharqieh and Mayfadoun on the north bank of the Litani is now the single most active zone, with 15 coded mentions in five days. A second cluster runs along the Bint Jbeil line (Aita al-Jabal–Haddatha–Braasheet–Beit Yahoun), where ground movement resumed today.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

1. Olive harvest under fire: two near-misses in 24 hours

Facts (L'Orient Today correspondent in the south):

• October 24, afternoon — Wadi Hujeir: a projectile dropped from an aircraft landed near farmworkers harvesting olives. They "narrowly escaped"; no one was injured.
• October 25, after 07:00 — Aita al-Jabal (Bint Jbeil): two Israeli Merkava tanks advanced on the town's outskirts and opened machine-gun fire toward the town while residents were picking olives. No injuries reported.
• Background: Israel blocks farmers from land inside the occupied zone and allows others to harvest only with the Lebanese Army present (L'Orient Today, Oct 23).

Claims: No Israeli army statement on either incident in the sources reviewed.

CIS Assessment: Two incidents of fire close to civilians at work in 24 hours, during the peak of the harvest, are the clearest civilian risk signal of the week. The absence of casualties so far reflects luck as much as distance. Civilian hazard: SEVERE (unscored). (Analyst confidence: MODERATE — single outlet, consistent pattern.)

2. South Lebanon: October 24 was not quiet

Facts — October 24 (reported after yesterday's 18:00 compile):

• Daytime tally: Israeli warplanes struck homes and buildings in four villages; ten towns and villages came under concentrated artillery fire; demolitions of homes and infrastructure in five occupied villages.
• Afternoon: at least five jet strikes within an hour across several sectors of the occupied area. New demolitions destroyed houses in Kfar Tibnit, Taybeh and Yohmor al-Shaqif.
• 20:00–21:00: artillery on Mansouri and Wadi Zibqine (Tyre), the Braasheet–Kounine outskirts and Kfar Tibnit.
• ~23:00: machine-gun fire between Aita al-Jabal and Beit Yahoun; artillery on Haddatha.
• ~Midnight: artillery on the outskirts of Zawtar Sharqieh and Mayfadoun; machine-gun fire on Zawtar Sharqieh.

Facts — October 25 (to late morning):

• Overnight: illumination flares over Maroun al-Ras; artillery on Wadi Hujeir, Wadi Slouqi and Wadi Zibqine.
• ~06:00: artillery on the Zawtar Sharqieh–Mayfadoun outskirts.
• Morning: a drone strike on the al-Hariq neighbourhood of Kfar Tibnit; warplane strikes on Kfar Tibnit and Wadi Hujeir; artillery on the Braasheet outskirts; a large explosion set off by Israeli forces outside Aitaroun; Merkava tank shelling, military vehicles and machine-gun fire at Haddatha; several rounds of explosions in Majdal Zoun.
• No casualties reported.

CIS Assessment: The provisional rule did its job: yesterday's lower score reflected a reporting gap, and October 24 is revised up to 72. Activity is steady to rising, with tanks and drones now operating at the edges of inhabited villages. (Analyst confidence: MODERATE.)

3. Israeli drills begin; election in two days

Facts:

• The Israeli army's Arabic-language spokesperson Ella Waweya said on Telegram that a military exercise began on Sunday morning involving the Judea and Samaria Division, the 98th, 96th and 210th divisions and the air force. The army said "there was no risk of a security incident" and that increased activity is expected on Sunday and Monday in the Central and Northern commands — CONFIRMED (statement).
• Israel will close all land crossings with the West Bank on election day, October 27, and from October 25 bars Palestinian workers from entering Israeli communities and the Jordan Valley; the army says its Hebron operation will last several days — REPORTED (AFP, citing the army).
• Israel sanctions a Lebanese fuel company: Defence Minister Israel Katz signed an order (Oct 22) sanctioning Coral Oil, a UK-registered company operating in Lebanon and owned by A. Yamin Group SAL, accusing it of supplying about 130,000 litres of fuel to al-Amana, a distributor Israel considers Hezbollah-owned. Coral "categorically rejected" the accusation as "totally unfounded" and is considering legal action — REPORTED (both positions).

CIS Assessment: The 210th Division is responsible for the Golan/Syria front and the 98th and 96th are manoeuvre and reserve formations, so the drill involves northern forces. CIS has no indication that it is cover for an operation in Lebanon, but loud activity in the south is likely through Monday. The Coral sanction is an economic-pressure measure with no direct security effect; companies supplying fuel in Lebanon should review their compliance exposure. (Analyst confidence: MODERATE.)

4. US repeats "do not travel" for Lebanon

Facts: On October 24 the US State Department reiterated its Level 4 advisory ("Do not travel"), warning that "drone and missile strikes may occur throughout the country, including in Beirut," that hostilities could disrupt commercial flights and access to Beirut's airport, and urging US citizens in Beirut's southern suburbs, south Lebanon, areas near the Syrian border and refugee camps to leave those areas immediately. The advisory cites Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and warns hostilities could "quickly expand beyond this area." A US intelligence memo reportedly warns that "Iranian plots for lethal attacks against American citizens have reached an advanced stage" — REPORTED.

CIS Assessment: The advisory level is unchanged; this is a reminder issued during a period of regional tension, not a new warning based on a specific Lebanese threat. It is a statement and does not score. It matters for US-linked organisations and their duty-of-care obligations. (Analyst confidence: HIGH.)

5. Gulf: Riyadh airport reopens under fire

Facts / Reports (AFP via L'Orient Today):

• Early October 25: three explosions heard in Riyadh; residents received "hostile aerial threat" alerts. The coalition says it destroyed a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh and two drones, and a cruise missile aimed at Khamis Mushait. Saudi civil defence reported falling debris in Mecca and Medina after intercepting two Houthi missiles; the Houthis called this a "huge lie."
• Later the coalition said it intercepted 10 Houthi ballistic missiles fired at the southern region.
• King Khalid International Airport (Riyadh) said flights would resume on October 25 after a two-week closure; the Houthis called the airport "unsafe" and a "military target."
• Yemen: the Houthis reported at least 15 killed in Saudi strikes on Sanaa, its surroundings and Hodeida on Oct 24 — REPORTED (Houthi figures).
• US–Iran: no US strike on Iran had been reported at compile time. President Trump denied envoy Tom Barrack's remarks about possible strikes this weekend — REPORTED.

CIS Assessment: Lebanese residents and travellers using Riyadh airport face real disruption risk despite the reopening. A US strike on Iran this weekend now looks unlikely given the presidential denial, though the regional picture remains volatile. Regional spillover: SEVERE (unscored). (Analyst confidence: MODERATE.)

INCIDENT LOG

A. October 24 — late additions (after the Oct 24 compile at 18:00)

B. October 25 (to late morning)

Totals: 22 rows · 20 scored · 2 not scored. The US travel advisory reiteration is a statement and is not logged as an incident.

STORY LEDGER

WATCH INDICATORS (UNSCORED — analyst watch, not part of the Index score)

INDICATORS & WARNINGS — TRIPWIRES (UNSCORED)

72-HOUR OUTLOOK (UNSCORED — estimative) · Oct 26–28

• Most likely (likely): continued strikes, artillery and demolitions along the Kfar Tibnit–Zawtar Sharqieh belt and the Bint Jbeil line; more fire near harvesters; Nabatieh in the 72–75 range.
• Alternative (roughly even chance): a civilian casualty from fire near farmland or a demolition, which would push Nabatieh toward 75+.
• Escalation case (unlikely, high impact): a launch from Lebanon around the election, followed by strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs.
• Noise warning: drills through Monday, Oct 26 may be heard in the south. Verify before reacting.

INFRASTRUCTURE & SERVICES BOARD

REGION-WIDE SNAPSHOT

SECTOR ADVISORIES

Farmers and residents — Bint Jbeil, Marjayoun, Nabatieh, Hasbaya: harvest only with a Lebanese Army escort; work in groups and keep a vehicle ready; leave immediately if tanks, drones or aircraft approach; do not enter land inside the occupied zone; report any incident to the Army. Residents — Kfar Tibnit, Zawtar Sharqieh, Mayfadoun, Yohmor: these are the most active localities this week; avoid open ground and damaged buildings; keep a grab bag ready. Residents — Beirut's southern suburbs: no evacuation order; keep your family plan ready through Oct 27. Residents — elsewhere: normal activity with standard awareness. Businesses & NGOs: US-linked organisations should re-read their duty-of-care obligations under the Level 4 advisory; fuel suppliers should review exposure to Israeli sanctions; check backup power and water before Nov 2. Travellers: no disruption at Beirut airport reported. Riyadh airport reopened on Oct 25 under Houthi threat; confirm flights on the day. Site security: brief guards on the drill period (Oct 25–26) and election day; keep shelter-in-place and contact procedures current.

STATEMENTS REGISTER

FORWARD CALENDAR

STATISTICS — OCTOBER 25

KEY UNKNOWNS & COLLECTION PRIORITIES

1. Oct 25 afternoon and evening in the south (provisional score).
2. Any Lebanese Army statement on the Aita al-Jabal tank fire or harvest escorts.
3. Tampa outcome (now five days without a statement).
4. Text of the US UNIFIL position and the French alternative.
5. Updated MoPH cumulative toll to replace the Sept 25 figure.

CORRECTIONS & REVISIONS REGISTER

SOURCE & VERIFICATION LOG

• Mandatory sweep status: PARTIAL. Checked: L'Orient Today (south recap of Oct 25, 7 p.m. roundup of Oct 24, live feed, AFP material). Not checked: NNA, MoPH, Naharnet, AP, Al Jazeera, The National, Times of Israel, Ynet, IDF Spokesperson (directly), UNIFIL, Lebanese Army, OCHA Lebanon, CIS field reports. → Edition Confidence: LOW.
• Collection gaps: Oct 25 after late morning; no Lebanese Army statement located; partial-day compile.
• Time basis: Beirut time; compiled October 25, 15:15.

FAQ — LEBANON SECURITY TODAY

What is Lebanon's security level today, October 25, 2026? The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ national alert level is 73/100 (HIGH), provisional, up 1 point, set by Nabatieh. No casualties have been reported for six days.

Why was yesterday's score revised? October 24 was published as provisional because no south report was available at 18:00. Later reports showed jet strikes, artillery and demolitions, so the final October 24 level is 72, not 71.

Is it safe to harvest olives in south Lebanon? Not without precautions. Fire landed near harvesters in Wadi Hujeir on October 24 and Israeli tanks fired toward Aita al-Jabal during the harvest on October 25. Harvest only with a Lebanese Army escort, in groups, and leave at once if tanks or drones approach.

Did the US issue a new travel warning for Lebanon? The US reiterated its existing Level 4 "do not travel" advice on October 24, warning that strikes may occur throughout the country, including Beirut. The level itself did not change.

What are the Israeli drills on October 25–26? The Israeli army says a multi-division exercise began on Sunday with increased activity on Sunday and Monday, and "no risk of a security incident." Sounds may carry into south Lebanon.

Is Beirut safe today? Beirut scores 36/100 (LOW) with no new incident. There is no evacuation order for the southern suburbs.

Is Beirut airport open? No disruption at Rafic Hariri International Airport has been reported.

How is the Index calculated? From verified, coded incidents across all 9 governorates with a seven-day decay window. Statements and unverified claims do not score. The national level is the highest governorate score. Methodology →

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Previous edition: October 24, 2026 — 72/100 HIGH (revised)

EMERGENCY CONTACTS

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The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is an informational professional assessment. It is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. In emergencies, follow official emergency services. CIS accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. Declaration of interest: CIS Security provides security services; the Index is editorially governed by its published methodology.

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Cite this edition: CIS Security. "CIS Lebanon Security Index™ — October 25, 2026 (War Day 238): 73/100, HIGH (provisional)." cissecurity.net/security-index/october-25-2026/

Sources: L'Orient Today — "Israeli strikes, demolitions intensify across southern Lebanon" (Oct 25); "The 7 p.m. roundup: U.S. warns against travel to Lebanon" (Oct 24); "US reiterates warning against travel to Lebanon, citing risk of strikes in Beirut" (Oct 24); "Israel sanctions Lebanese oil company Coral" (Oct 24); "Explosions heard in Saudi capital as airport due to reopen" (AFP, Oct 25); "Saudi forces say intercepted 10 Houthi missiles fired at southern region" (AFP, Oct 25); "Israel to close all land crossings with West Bank on election day" (AFP, Oct 25); "In south Lebanon, Israel controls farmers' olive harvest" (Oct 23); Kuwait Times (AFP), "Riyadh airport resumes flights as Houthis warn it remains a target" (Oct 25).

Compilation notes: Editorial checks matched each cited report to its source link; the L'Orient Today reports are cited by title because their article pages could not be retrieved. The Riyadh airport reopening is confirmed by other outlets; the US advisory reiteration and the Israeli sanction on Coral Oil (with Coral's denial) could not be matched independently and are carried as reported. The edition-number placeholder and internal format label were removed. The supplied CIS scores are retained.

Related CIS editions and methodology

• October 24, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• October 23, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• October 22, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• October 21, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• Index methodology and risk bands
• All Lebanon Security Index reports
• Contact CIS Security