Lebanon Security Index — November 9, 2026

قراءة النسخة العربية من النشرة

WAR DAY 253 · TRUCE DAY 143 · November 9, 2026 · OVERALL INDEX: 75/100 (HIGH, final; revised from provisional 74)

Revised November 10, 2026: incidents reported after this edition's morning compile were coded the next day, including Israeli air strikes on Kfar Tebnit and Qantara (reported twice on Kfar Tebnit within half an hour by Al Jazeera Arabic), strikes near Hadatha, Wadi Hujeir and Baraachit, and shelling of Mansouri, Majdal Zoun and Marjayoun. No casualties were reported. The final national level for November 9 is 75/100 (HIGH), not the provisional 74 shown below: Nabatieh 75, South Lebanon 64, all other governorates unchanged. Eisenkot's party also denied the Lebanon-withdrawal report cited on November 8. See the November 10 edition. Correction November 12: Eisenkot's 28-day clock began with the November 8 mandate, so November 9 was day 2, not day 1; the text, summary and notes below are corrected.

War Day 253 · Truce Day 143 · Compiled November 9, 09:30 Beirut (covers Nov 8 → Nov 9, 09:00) · Methodology v2.1 EDITION CONFIDENCE: LOW (collection gap) · SCORE STATUS: PROVISIONAL (no Nov 9 incident report located yet). November 8 scores set at 75 / 65 and now FINAL. November 7 corrected to 74 / 63 (see Corrections).

INDEX DASHBOARD

BLUF — BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT

• What happened: On the evening of Nov 8, warplanes struck Mansouri, the outskirts of Aita al-Jabal and Hadatha (Beirut 24, 21:26 Beirut time); Hawar News adds Wadi Slouqi and Baraachit. During the day, NNA-sourced reports cite a large explosion near Qantara, a drone dropping explosive material on the outskirts of Aita al-Jabal for the third consecutive time, a demolition in Bani Hayyan, machine-gun fire in Khiam and Zawtar Sharqieh, and shelling of Beit Yahoun, Mansouri, Wadi Zibqin and the Mayfadoun–Kafr Tebnit road. No casualties were reported. In Israel, the United Arab List said it will back Eisenkot without a coalition deal. In Washington, Rubio called Iran's demands "outrageous and ridiculous".
• What it means: Evening air strikes are now a repeating pattern. Drone-dropped explosives near homes at Aita al-Jabal add a civilian hazard (unexploded items). Eisenkot is on day 2 of 28 (corrected November 12); CIS does not expect a quick change in the south (he has said nothing on Lebanon on record). UNIFIL's mandate ends Dec 31, in 52 days, with a phased drawdown and no agreed successor.
• What to do: In the south, stay indoors after dark near Hadatha, Mansouri and Aita al-Jabal. Farmers: harvest in daylight and in groups, and do not touch objects dropped by drones. The watch window ends Nov 10.

Quick answer — Is Lebanon safe today (November 9, 2026)? The far south is HIGH risk (Nabatieh 74, South Lebanon 64, provisional): air strikes, demolitions and shelling continue, though no casualties were reported on Nov 8. Beirut is LOW (36); no evacuation order. Baalbek-Hermel (29), Beqaa (29), Mount Lebanon (26), Keserwan-Jbeil (21) are LOW; North (17) and Akkar (16) MINIMAL. No disruption at Beirut airport has been reported.

GOVERNORATE MATRIX

ʳ = revised (Nov 7: 75/65 → 74/63; Nov 8: provisional 74/64 → final 75/65).

HOTSPOT TRACKER (Nov 2–9)

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

1. South Lebanon: evening air strikes, a blast and drone-dropped explosives

Facts / Reports:

• Beirut 24 (published 21:26 Nov 8, no source named): Israeli warplanes struck Mansouri, and a separate strike hit the area around Aita al-Jabal and Hadatha. No information on injuries or damage — REPORTED.
• Hawar News (page stamped Nov 8): air strikes on Wadi Slouqi (toward Shaqra), Hadatha, Mansouri and the outskirts of Baraachit; artillery on Mansouri, Zawtar outskirts and Aita al-Shaab woodland; houses bulldozed and burned in Zawtar Sharqieh — REPORTED (single outlet; see Corrections on dating).
• Hadaf News (09:25 Nov 8, citing NNA): a large explosion near Qantara; a demolition in Bani Hayyan; machine-gun fire in Khiam; an Israeli drone dropped explosive material on the outskirts of Aita al-Jabal for the third consecutive time, with the town shelled; shelling of Mansouri and Zibqin; four shells on Beit Yahoun; shelling and MG fire in Zawtar Sharqieh, with Israeli vehicles moving inside; shelling between Mayfadoun and Kafr Tebnit — REPORTED (a Palestinian outlet relaying NNA; the Bani Hayyan demolition may duplicate the Nov 7 NNA item).
• No casualties reported. No Israeli statement. Deir Mimas (update after compile): Daily Beirut reported that the Israeli army released a Deir Mimas resident at about 01:00 on Nov 8, after two days in detention. CIS has not confirmed that he is the man taken near the olive harvest on Nov 6 — REPORTED.

CIS Assessment: Evening strikes on several villages at once recur every two to three days, and the Nov 8 pattern matches earlier ones. Drone-dropped explosives near homes are a new civilian hazard: unexploded items. (Analyst confidence: MODERATE.)

2. Israel: Eisenkot's first days

• Yeni Şafak: Israel's United Arab List will back an Eisenkot government without a coalition deal; Israelis rallied in Tel Aviv and the north for an Arab-backed coalition — REPORTED.
• Trump (to reporters, via Times of Israel liveblog): Eisenkot and Netanyahu are "very similar in terms of their policy" — REPORTED.
• AFP (Nov 6): Arab-majority lists won 19 of 120 seats; Shas and UTJ together hold 13, "enough" to bring Eisenkot to power if they joined; he has 28 days, +14 — CONFIRMED (seat figures).

CIS Assessment: Day 2 of 28 (deadline about Dec 6; corrected from "day 1" in the supplied text). No Lebanon policy on record; CIS expects no change on the ground in the near term. (Analyst confidence: MODERATE.)

3. Iran: talks stalled

• Rubio (Florida, before the G7 foreign ministers' meeting in Paris, via Times of Israel): Iran's demands are "outrageous and ridiculous"; talks are not productive; no breakthrough is near; the US may defend itself against "a clear and present threat to shipping" — REPORTED.
• AP (Nov 7, via Naharnet): Trump called limited US strikes on an Iranian air defence system near Qeshm "minor". Iran is reviewing Qatar's "bridge deal" proposals; Iran's conditions include ending Israeli operations in Lebanon — REPORTED.

4. UNIFIL: the clock

• Asharq Al-Awsat (Nov 9): the mandate ends Dec 31 under UNSC Resolution 2790, then a phased drawdown over months. Lebanon fears losing independent documentation; security sources fear Israel could occupy or destroy some of about 36 permanent positions. Israel rejected a safe-corridor proposal and wider observer mandates. Berri: Resolution 1701 "remains the legal guarantee" — REPORTED.
• Army Commander Haykal (Nov 6, via Yeni Şafak): the Israeli occupation is "the greatest threat facing our country" — REPORTED.

INCIDENT LOG

WATCH INDICATORS (UNSCORED)

INDICATORS & WARNINGS — TRIPWIRES (UNSCORED)

72-HOUR OUTLOOK (UNSCORED — estimative) · Nov 9–11

• Most likely (likely): strikes, demolitions and shelling continue; Nabatieh 73–76.
• Alternative (roughly even chance): another detention near the zone as the olive harvest continues (a Deir Mimas resident was reported released on Nov 8); Knesset sworn in Nov 10.
• Escalation case (unlikely): a targeted strike with casualties or a wider US–Iran clash.

INFRASTRUCTURE & SERVICES BOARD

SECTOR ADVISORIES

South: evening air strikes continue; stay indoors after dark near Hadatha, Mansouri, Aita al-Jabal and Wadi Slouqi; keep away from outposts and burned or bulldozed houses. Farmers: harvest in groups, in daylight; do not touch objects dropped by drones; report them to the Army and tell the municipality where you are. Aita al-Jabal: explosives were dropped by drone near the town three times; stay off the outskirts. Beirut: no evacuation order. Businesses & NGOs: watch window ends Nov 10; keep fuel and cash buffers; review your plan on Tuesday. Travellers: Beirut airport operating.

STATEMENTS REGISTER

FORWARD CALENDAR

STATISTICS — NOVEMBER 9

KEY UNKNOWNS & COLLECTION PRIORITIES

1. Whether the Deir Mimas resident reported released on Nov 8 is the man taken on Nov 6, and how he was freed.
2. Eisenkot's stated position on Lebanon (none on record).
3. Exact date of the Hawar News strike report (see Corrections).
4. Nov 9 daytime incidents; any new Health Ministry toll after Nov 5.

CORRECTIONS & REVISIONS REGISTER

SOURCE & VERIFICATION LOG

Checked: Naharnet (homepage and articles: AFP, AP, MTV), Beirut 24 (Nov 8, 21:26), Hadaf News (Nov 8, 09:25, citing NNA), Hawar News, Yeni Şafak/Anadolu, Times of Israel (Nov 9 liveblog), Asharq Al-Awsat (Nov 9). Not fetched: Janoubia (client error), Anadolu directly (robots-blocked). Not checked: L'Orient Today, MoPH directly, IDF, UNIFIL, Lebanese Army, CIS field reports. Beirut 24 and Hawar News name no sources. → Edition Confidence: LOW.

FAQ — LEBANON SECURITY TODAY

What is Lebanon's security level today, November 9, 2026? 74/100 (HIGH), provisional, set by Nabatieh. Nov 8 was set at 75.

Where did Israel strike on November 8? Reports cite evening air strikes on Mansouri, Aita al-Jabal and Hadatha (Hawar adds Wadi Slouqi and Baraachit), a large explosion near Qantara and shelling across Nabatieh. No casualties were reported.

What is the UNIFIL deadline? The mandate ends December 31, 2026, followed by a phased drawdown; no successor is agreed.

How many people have been killed in Lebanon since March 2? The Health Ministry reports 4,390 killed and 12,429 injured as of November 5.

Is Beirut safe today? Beirut scores 36/100 (LOW). No evacuation order.

Beyond the Index: Request a security offer → · +961 3 539900 · info@cissecurity.net · Emergency: Red Cross 140 · Civil Defence 125 · ISF 112 · Army South Liaison +961-8-802-510

Informational professional assessment — not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. Declaration of interest: CIS Security provides security services; the Index is editorially governed by its published methodology.

Cite: CIS Security. "CIS Lebanon Security Index™ — November 9, 2026 (War Day 253): 74/100, HIGH (provisional)." cissecurity.net/security-index/november-9-2026/

Sources: Beirut 24 (air strikes on Mansouri, Aita al-Jabal and Hadatha, Nov 8, 21:26); Hadaf News citing NNA (Nov 8, 09:25); Hawar News (Nov 8); Yeni Şafak (United Arab List and Eisenkot); Naharnet (AFP and AP items, Nov 6–7); Times of Israel liveblog (Rubio and Trump, Nov 9); Asharq Al-Awsat (UNIFIL, Nov 9); Daily Beirut (release of a Deir Mimas resident, Nov 8).

Compilation notes: The supplied pack names its sources without links, so no link-by-link check was made. The evening air strikes on Mansouri, Aita al-Jabal and Hadatha are reported by Beirut 24 (21:26, November 8); Wadi Slouqi and Baraachit rest on Hawar News alone, and neither outlet names a source. The explosion near Qantara and the drone-dropped explosives near Aita al-Jabal rest on Hadaf News relaying NNA. The Health Ministry toll (4,390 killed, 12,429 injured) is as of November 5; no newer figure was found. Update after compile: the Deir Mimas lines now follow Daily Beirut's report, carried in the November 8 edition, that a resident was released at about 01:00 on November 8; CIS has not confirmed that he is the man taken on November 6. The edition-number placeholder and internal format label were removed, and a sources list was added. The supplied CIS scores are retained. Revised November 10: the November 10 edition's final figures (national 75; Nabatieh 75, South Lebanon 64) replace the provisional 74 in the headline, scoreboard and Index data; the edition text is kept as published. Correction November 12: Eisenkot's day count was fixed (November 9 was day 2 of 28).

Related CIS editions and methodology

• November 8, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• November 7, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• November 6, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• November 5, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• Index methodology and risk bands
• All Lebanon Security Index reports
• Contact CIS Security