Lebanon Security Index — November 10, 2026

قراءة النسخة العربية من النشرة

WAR DAY 254 · TRUCE DAY 144 · November 10, 2026 · OVERALL INDEX: 74/100 (HIGH)

Confirmed November 11, 2026: this edition was published as provisional. The November 11 edition confirmed the scores as final without change (national 74; Nabatieh 74, South Lebanon 63). They are decay values, because no scorable November 10 report was found. Detail for November 9 was added late: a drone dropped a grenade on farmers at Deir Mimas (no injuries), air strikes hit Markaba, a drone fired a missile near Jarmaq, and there were explosions and sweeps in Khiam; the November 9 final of 75 stands. See the November 11 edition.

War Day 254 · Truce Day 144 · Covers Nov 9 → Nov 10 · Politics and diplomacy updated to 16:30 Beirut (Naharnet items) · Methodology v2.1 EDITION CONFIDENCE: LOW (collection gap) · SCORE STATUS: PROVISIONAL (no detailed Nov 10 incident report retrieved). November 9 scores set at 75 / 64 and now FINAL.

INDEX DASHBOARD

BLUF — BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT

• What happened: On Monday, Nov 9, Israeli aircraft carried out two air strikes on Kfar Tebnit within half an hour and one on Qantara; strikes were also reported near Wadi Hujeir, Hadatha and Baraachit. Artillery hit Mansouri, Majdal Zoun, Marjayoun and Wadi Slouqi (near Qabrikha). No casualties were reported. In Israel, Eisenkot's party denied a Channel 14 report that he was negotiating a Lebanon withdrawal ("pure lies"), and the new Knesset convened on Nov 10. At the G7, ministers agreed on "the need to avoid a security void" in Lebanon once the UN force leaves; Rubio said the US would "deal with Lebanon, not with Iran." A Lebanese row over the Army (Geagea vs. Army chief Haykal) drew defences from Aoun, Berri and the defence minister.
• What it means: Daytime and evening strikes are routine, with no casualties for four days. The Eisenkot denial removes the only suggestion of a near-term pullback, so CIS still expects no change on the ground. The G7 and Rubio statements put the post-UNIFIL force on the diplomatic agenda; UNIFIL's mandate ends Dec 31 (51 days).
• What to do: In the south, stay indoors after dark near Hadatha, Mansouri and Baraachit, and avoid roads and fields around Kfar Tebnit and Qantara. Farmers: harvest in daylight and in groups; do not touch objects dropped by drones. CIS extends the watch window to Nov 17.

Quick answer — Is Lebanon safe today (November 10, 2026)? The far south is HIGH risk (Nabatieh 74, South Lebanon 63, provisional): air strikes, shelling and demolitions continue, though no casualties were reported on Nov 9. Beirut is LOW (36); no evacuation order. Beqaa (29), Baalbek-Hermel (28), Mount Lebanon (26), Keserwan-Jbeil (21) are LOW; North (17) and Akkar (16) MINIMAL. No disruption at Beirut airport has been reported.

GOVERNORATE MATRIX

HOTSPOT TRACKER (Nov 2–10; counts approximate)

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

1. South Lebanon: air strikes and shelling

• Naharnet (Nov 9, 12:31, newsdesk, no source named): Israeli strikes targeted Kfar Tebnit and Qantara; artillery hit Mansouri and Majdal Zoun, and Marjayoun overnight; strikes hit Wadi Hujeir, Hadatha and Baraachit. No casualties or damage reported — REPORTED.
• Al Jazeera Arabic (Nov 9): artillery at dawn on Wadi Slouqi near Qabrikha; an air strike on Qantara; two air strikes on Kfar Tebnit within half an hour; low-flying warplanes over the south. No casualties — REPORTED.
• Nov 10: a Youm7 headline reports further strikes on several towns; details not retrieved — UNVERIFIED.

CIS Assessment: Strikes now reach Kfar Tebnit and Qantara in daylight, not only in the evening. Four days without reported casualties does not lower the hazard: strikes land near villages and fields. (Analyst confidence: MODERATE.)

2. Israel: new Knesset; Lebanon-withdrawal report denied

• Eisenkot's Yashar party (Naharnet, Nov 9, 15:08): a Channel 14 report that he was negotiating a withdrawal from Lebanon with foreign parties is "pure lies, completely baseless, and never happened"; the party demanded a deletion and apology — CONFIRMED (the denial). The Nov 8 edition cited this claim to Kol Chai radio; Naharnet's Nov 9 item names Channel 14. CIS treats it as one claim, now DENIED; per L'Orient Today it was made on Channel 14 by a Kol Hai radio journalist, which reconciles the two attributions.
• Eisenkot (Naharnet, Nov 10, 14:59): "I am committed in this complex situation to form a national-emergency government as quickly as possible," as the new parliament met. At the Nov 8 ceremony he urged progress in talks with Lebanon and Syria — REPORTED.

CIS Assessment: No pullback is signalled, and Eisenkot's public line favours continued talks. Day 3 of 28 (deadline about Dec 6). (Analyst confidence: MODERATE.)

3. Diplomacy: the post-UNIFIL force and Iran

• G7 (AFP via Naharnet, Nov 10, 16:01): French FM Jean-Noël Barrot: ministers agreed on "the need to avoid a security void" in Lebanon after the UN force leaves and to build a new security structure quickly — REPORTED.
• Rubio (Naharnet, Nov 10, 16:22): "Lebanon is a sovereign country… we'll deal with Lebanon, not with Iran"; "Everything bad that's happened to Lebanon has been the direct result of Hezbollah's presence there." He also discussed a post-UNIFIL monitoring mission with Macron — REPORTED.
• Hezbollah MPs Hassan Fadlallah and Hussein Hajj Hassan (Nov 9): urged Lebanon to join the "Islamabad track"; "Iran insists that Lebanon be the first item in any new agreement." Aoun: diplomacy is the only solution but has not yet ended attacks, brought withdrawal or returned prisoners — REPORTED.
• Iran: Trump (Truth Social, Monday): no new offensive "for the time being", citing "positive momentum"; Iran's Mohsen Rezaei: "time to surrender to the seven conditions" — REPORTED.

• UNIFIL (update after compile, evening of Nov 10): UNIFIL says one of its patrols came under gunfire near Wadi Jilou in the Tyre district: about a dozen rounds, a muzzle flash, return fire, and then the shooting stopped, with no casualties and no attacker named. MTV, citing unnamed sources, says the patrol was Finnish. UNIFIL asked the Lebanese authorities to investigate (Al Jazeera, LBCI, Times of Israel). CIS has not scored the incident — REPORTED.

4. Lebanon: the Army row

• Geagea (MTV, via Naharnet): said Army chief Haykal is "on the other side of our political vision". Haykal: the Army's mission is national. Aoun (with Defence Minister Menassa, Nov 10) warned against targeting the Army's leadership and personnel; Berri: the Army is "a red line"; Salam (Nov 9): the priority is "protecting Lebanon… and avoiding being dragged into any new war" — REPORTED.

INCIDENT LOG

WATCH INDICATORS (UNSCORED)

INDICATORS & WARNINGS — TRIPWIRES (UNSCORED)

72-HOUR OUTLOOK (UNSCORED — estimative) · Nov 10–12

• Most likely (likely): strikes, demolitions and shelling continue; Nabatieh 73–76.
• Alternative (roughly even chance): a Health Ministry toll update; an Israeli coalition move.
• Escalation case (unlikely): a targeted strike with casualties, or Trump reversing course on Iran.

INFRASTRUCTURE & SERVICES BOARD

SECTOR ADVISORIES

South: strikes continue by day and evening; stay indoors after dark near Hadatha, Mansouri and Baraachit; keep away from outposts and burned or bulldozed houses. Farmers: harvest in groups, in daylight; do not touch objects dropped by drones; report them to the Army. Kfar Tebnit and Qantara: repeated air strikes on Nov 9; avoid roads and fields around both towns. Beirut: no evacuation order. Businesses & NGOs: CIS extends the watch window to Nov 17; keep fuel and cash buffers; review at the Nov 14 Weekly. Travellers: Beirut airport operating.

STATEMENTS REGISTER

FORWARD CALENDAR

STATISTICS — NOVEMBER 10

KEY UNKNOWNS & COLLECTION PRIORITIES

1. Details and casualties of Nov 10 strikes (Youm7 headline only).
2. Whether the Deir Mimas resident reported released on Nov 8 (Daily Beirut) is the man taken on Nov 6, and how he was freed.
3. A Health Ministry toll newer than Nov 5.
4. Who fired on the UNIFIL patrol near Wadi Jilou on the evening of Nov 10.

CORRECTIONS & REVISIONS REGISTER

SOURCE & VERIFICATION LOG

Checked: Naharnet (homepage and eight articles: AFP, MTV; Nov 9–10), Al Jazeera Arabic (Nov 9), Times of Israel (liveblog, Iran items). Failed or not found: Youm7 Nov 10 article (URL too long), Janoubia, Anadolu (robots-blocked); no Nov 10 ground report retrieved. Not checked: L'Orient Today, MoPH directly, IDF, UNIFIL, Lebanese Army, CIS field reports. → Edition Confidence: LOW.

FAQ — LEBANON SECURITY TODAY

What is Lebanon's security level today, November 10, 2026? 74/100 (HIGH), provisional, set by Nabatieh. Nov 9 was set at 75.

Where did Israel strike on November 9? Reports cite two air strikes on Kfar Tebnit, one on Qantara, strikes near Hadatha, Wadi Hujeir and Baraachit, and shelling of Mansouri, Majdal Zoun and Marjayoun. No casualties were reported.

Will Israel withdraw from Lebanon under Eisenkot? His party denied a report that he was negotiating a withdrawal, calling it "pure lies"; he has urged continued talks with Lebanon.

What happens when UNIFIL's mandate ends? It ends December 31, 2026, with a phased drawdown; G7 ministers want to avoid a "security void" but no successor is agreed.

Is Beirut safe today? Beirut scores 36/100 (LOW). No evacuation order.

Beyond the Index: Request a security offer → · +961 3 539900 · info@cissecurity.net · Emergency: Red Cross 140 · Civil Defence 125 · ISF 112 · Army South Liaison +961-8-802-510

Informational professional assessment — not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. Declaration of interest: CIS Security provides security services; the Index is editorially governed by its published methodology.

Cite: CIS Security. "CIS Lebanon Security Index™ — November 10, 2026 (War Day 254): 74/100, HIGH (provisional)." cissecurity.net/security-index/november-10-2026/

Sources: Naharnet, "Israeli strikes target Kfartebnit, al-Qantara in south Lebanon" (Nov 9); L'Orient Today, "Gadi Eisenkot's party denies talks on Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon" (Nov 8); Naharnet, "Herzog urges continued talks with Lebanon as Yashar denies intention to withdraw army" (Nov 9); Asharq Al-Awsat, "G7 Agrees on Need to Avoid ‘Security Void’ in Lebanon After UN Force Mandate Ends" (Nov 10); Naharnet, "Defense Minister condemns attacks on army after Geagea's criticism" (Nov 10); Naharnet, "Berri: Army is a red line and targeting it is a grave sin" (Nov 10); Al Jazeera, "‘Positive momentum’: Is the US war on Iran about to end?" (Nov 10); Times of Israel, "26th Knesset to be sworn in today, with 46 first-time lawmakers taking their seats" (Nov 10); LBCI, "UNIFIL patrol comes under gunfire near South Lebanon's Wadi Jilou, no peacekeepers injured" (Nov 10); Al Jazeera Arabic (south reports, Nov 9); Daily Beirut (release of a Deir Mimas resident, Nov 8); MTV Lebanon; AFP via Naharnet.

Compilation notes: Editorial checks matched each cited report to its source link; other outlets confirm the November 9 strikes on Kfar Tebnit and Qantara (Naharnet), the denial by Eisenkot's party of the report that he was negotiating a Lebanon withdrawal (Israel National News, L'Orient Today, LBCI; per L'Orient Today the claim was made on Channel 14 by a Kol Hai radio journalist, which reconciles the Kol Chai and Channel 14 attributions, and several outlets date the denial to November 8), the G7 "security void" statement (Asharq Al-Awsat, Times of Israel, LBCI), the Geagea–Haykal exchange and the responses of the defence minister and Speaker Berri (Naharnet), Trump's "positive momentum" post and Rezaei's seven conditions (Al Jazeera), and the swearing-in of the new Knesset (Times of Israel). Two items could not be matched in other outlets: the "two air strikes on Kfar Tebnit within half an hour" (Al Jazeera Arabic, per the supplied edition) and Rubio's "deal with Lebanon, not with Iran" wording; Rubio was reported saying a UNIFIL successor could be a civilian mission. Update after compile: UNIFIL reported gunfire at one of its patrols on the evening of November 10 (no casualties; not scored), and Daily Beirut reported the release of a Deir Mimas resident on November 8. The edition-number placeholder and internal format label were removed, and a sources list was added. The supplied CIS scores are retained. Confirmed November 11: the scores stand as published (decay values; no scorable November 10 report was found). The Baalbek-Hermel trail in the governorate table was corrected to the published scores (30 · 33 · 32 · 31 · 30 · 29 · 28).

Related CIS editions and methodology

• November 9, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• November 8, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• November 7, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• November 6, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• Index methodology and risk bands
• All Lebanon Security Index reports
• Contact CIS Security