🛡️ CIS LEBANON SECURITY INDEX™
Wednesday, August 19, 2026
Conflict Day 171 · Truce Day 60 · Methodology v3.0 · Coding Manual v3.1
OVERALL INDEX: 73/100
TREND: ⬇️ EASING BY DECAY, SECOND CONSECUTIVE FALL — The national alert level reads 73/100 HIGH, set by Nabatieh and down six points from 79 as Saturday's mass-casualty day decays further out of the seven-day window. The fall is arithmetic, not de-escalation: Israeli aircraft struck the Ali al-Taher Ridge and Kfar Rumman early Wednesday, at least the fifth night of activity there since 15 August, with no casualties reported at the time of compilation. Confidence rises to MODERATE for the first time as the uncoded gap inside the window shrinks to two days, 12–13 August. No governorate reads CRITICAL, one HIGH, one MEDIUM, three LOW and four MINIMAL; CIS holds Level 5 — Severe Alert against a regional picture that has deteriorated since Sunday.
TIER 1 — PUBLIC EDITION
🟠 NATIONAL ALERT LEVEL: 73/100 — HIGH
Driven by: Nabatieh · Trend: ⬇️ −6 (79 → 73) · Confidence: MODERATE ⬆️ Spread: 0 CRITICAL · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUM · 3 LOW · 4 MINIMAL
Governorate Readings
| Governorate | Score | Level | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nabatieh | 73 | 🟠 HIGH | MODERATE |
| South Lebanon | 42 | 🟡 MEDIUM | MODERATE |
| Baalbek-Hermel | 24 | 🟢 LOW | MODERATE |
| Beqaa Valley | 22 | 🟢 LOW | MODERATE |
| Mount Lebanon | 22 | 🟢 LOW | MODERATE |
| Beirut | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | MODERATE |
| Akkar | 20 | ⚪ MINIMAL | MODERATE |
| North Lebanon | 18 | ⚪ MINIMAL | MODERATE |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 16 | ⚪ MINIMAL | MODERATE |
> ⚠️ Continued decay, not continued calm. Israeli aircraft struck the Ali al-Taher Ridge and Kfar Rumman again overnight. No casualties reported. Today's fall is driven mainly by Saturday's mass-casualty day ageing further out of the seven-day window — today's own activity, while real, is smaller than what is rolling off.
Ali al-Taher Ridge and Kfar Rumman struck again; no casualties reported
- Israeli Air Force jets struck the Ali al-Taher Ridge and the town of Kfar Rumman early Wednesday, Lebanese media reported. No casualties reported at time of publication.
- This is at least the fifth night of activity at Ali al-Taher since 15 August. Yesterday's shelling at Majdal Zoun, Mansouri, Haddatha and Baraachit continues to weigh on the South Lebanon and Nabatieh scores as it decays.
- The US–Iran ceasefire remains lapsed. Reporting indicates President Trump has ruled out extending the interim deal, and Iran reportedly considered striking US military assets in Europe should the war escalate further. None of this scores in the Lebanon Index — it is not an incident in Lebanon — but it remains the largest regional variable this week.
🚦 Zone Guidance
| Area | Guidance |
|---|---|
| Ali al-Taher Ridge · Kfar Rumman | Avoid entirely — struck again overnight |
| Majdal Zoun · Mansouri · Haddatha · Baraachit | Avoid — shelled yesterday |
| Israeli-controlled security zone (approx. 10 km deep) | Do not approach under any circumstances |
| Nabatieh district — Ansar, Deir al-Zahrani, Nabatieh al-Fawqa and al-Tahta, Kfar Rouman, Harouf, Habboush | Avoid |
| Bint Jbeil district — including Kafra, Kounine–Saf al-Hawa road | Avoid |
| Tyre district — coastal and inland routes south of Sidon | Avoid non-essential travel |
| Wadi al-Saluqi · Ansar–Zarariyeh valley | Avoid |
| Sidon and the coastal route | Passable — expect continued congestion |
| Dahiyeh · Bekaa Valley | Elevated caution |
| Beirut · Mount Lebanon · North Lebanon · Akkar · Keserwan-Jbeil | Normal operations; maintain situational awareness |
If you are in or near an affected area
- Do not travel into Nabatieh, Bint Jbeil or southern Tyre districts.
- Treat any morning quiet as provisional. Activity has been reported on five of the last six nights.
- Keep phones charged and agree a family check-in time and a meeting point.
- Identify the lowest interior room in your building, away from windows and glazing.
- Keep identity documents, medication and cash together and ready to move at short notice.
- Verify village-specific claims through official channels before acting.
- Follow Civil Defence (125) and Lebanese Red Cross (1760) in preference to social media.
📞 Emergency Contacts
- CIS Security emergency line (active clients): +961-3-539900 — 24/7/365
- CIS general enquiries: +961-3-539900 · info@cissecurity.net · Monday–Friday, 8:00 AM–6:00 PM
- Civil Defence: 125 · Lebanese Red Cross: 1760 · Internal Security Forces: 112
- Lebanese Army — South Lebanon Liaison: +961-8-802-510
- National Mental Health Lifeline: 1564 — free, confidential, 24/7
- US Embassy emergency (overseas citizens services): +1-202-501-4444 · BeirutACS@state.gov
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology · Corrections: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections
Need security cover for a property or site? → https://app.cissecurity.net/request Get the Index in your inbox daily, 8:15 AM → cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/
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TIER 2 — ANALYST EDITION
Confidence Upgrade — Nabatieh and South Lebanon: LOW → MODERATE
For the first time since the methodology went live, confidence rises above LOW. This is a computed change, not a judgment call: with the seven-day window now spanning 12–19 August, only two days (12–13 August) remain outside CIS's coded incident log, below the three-day threshold that triggers LOW confidence. Reported-share of raw load also sits well under the 50% threshold that would otherwise trigger it.
This upgrade should be read cautiously. It reflects the window maturing, not the backfill being complete — 12 and 13 August are still uncoded, and today's scores remain a floor. If subsequent research establishes incidents in that two-day gap, confidence would revert to LOW until they are coded.
1 · Executive Summary
Israeli Air Force jets struck the Ali al-Taher Ridge and the town of Kfar Rumman early Wednesday, according to Lebanese media. No casualties had been reported at the time of compilation. This is at least the fifth night of reported activity at or near Ali al-Taher since 15 August.
The National Alert Level falls six points, from 79 to 73, remaining within HIGH.
CIS assessment. Unlike yesterday, today's fall does not cross a band threshold — Nabatieh moves within HIGH rather than out of it. The underlying dynamic is the same as yesterday's, at smaller scale: real activity continues, but the decay of Saturday's mass-casualty day continues to outweigh it. Saturday's load is now four days old, at a 0.32 decay weight, and will fall further tomorrow. CIS expects continued decline through the coming days absent a new significant incident, and states this now so a further fall is not read as a new signal when it arrives on schedule.
2 · Today's Activity — Sourcing Is Thin
Both of today's incidents rest on Lebanese media reporting relayed by a single Israeli outlet at compilation time, with no independent Lebanese source, wire confirmation, or Israeli military acknowledgment yet available. Under coding rule 4.6 this is one originating chain, and under rule 4.2 no strike count was given for the Ali al-Taher activity, so it codes as a single incident.
CIS assessment. Both incidents are coded Reported rather than Confirmed on this basis. This is consistent with the pattern observed on 16–18 August, where morning-compilation sourcing has repeatedly understated the eventual, fuller picture established later in the day or the next morning. CIS notes this as a structural limitation of same-day compilation rather than a reason to alter today's coding.
3 · Regional Context — Deterioration Continues
Reporting indicates President Trump has ruled out extending the lapsed US–Iran interim deal. Separately, Iran is reported to have considered striking US military assets in Europe, including in Cyprus and Bulgaria, should the war escalate further. Separately again, Israel's Prime Minister's Office stated that Turkish troop deployment near an airbase in Syria's Idlib province, struck Tuesday, would breach a status quo security understanding between Israel and Syria.
CIS assessment. None of this scores. It is not an incident in Lebanon, and CIS does not infer a mechanism by which it should move the Lebanon number — doing so would break the reproducibility the Index depends on. It is reported here because the regional trajectory bears directly on forward risk to Lebanon and belongs in planning and posture, which is precisely why CIS holds Level 5 while the Index itself declines.
Separately: Asharq Al-Awsat has reported that Israel is demanding Hezbollah's withdrawal from the Ali al-Taher heights as a condition for solidifying the ceasefire, while Lebanon maintains Israel has not fulfilled its own commitments under the framework. CIS notes this as the clearest statement yet of what each side considers the other's outstanding obligation, and as context for why Ali al-Taher continues to generate activity nightly.
4 · Coded Incident Log
19 August 2026 — decay 1.00
| # | Governorate | Location | Category | Confirmation | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nabatieh | Ali al-Taher Ridge | Airstrike (no count stated → 1) | Reported | 3.6 |
| 2 | Nabatieh | Kfar Rumman | Airstrike | Reported | 3.6 |
Both rest on a single reporting chain under coding rule 4.6. Nabatieh subtotal: 7.2
18 August 2026 — decay 0.75
Four incidents as coded in the 18 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 4.80; South Lebanon subtotal 6.00.
17 August 2026 — decay 0.5625
Swept, no incidents confirmed. CIS conducted its source sweep for 17 August and found no confirmable incidents beyond those already coded in the 17 August edition (none). This is recorded as a completed sweep with a genuine zero, distinct from an unswept gap. Contribution: 0.0
16 August 2026 — decay 0.421875
Ten scoring incidents as coded in the 17 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 34.40; South Lebanon subtotal 8.00.
15 August 2026 — decay 0.316406
Twenty-three incidents as coded in the 16 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 187.40; South Lebanon subtotal 20.00.
14 August 2026 — decay 0.237305
Two Nabatieh incidents and four South Lebanon incidents as coded in the 18 August edition. Nabatieh subtotal 8.40; South Lebanon subtotal 13.20.
12–13 August 2026
Not coded. This is now the entire extent of the uncoded gap within the seven-day window — down from five days on 16 August to two days today, as the window has moved forward. Under the completeness rule this remains zero, not estimated. Today's scores remain a floor.
Open item, not coded today
Reporting attributed to a correspondent for a francophone Lebanese outlet describes white phosphorus shelling at the Ali al-Taher heights, strikes at Doha Kfar Rumman and the Tahra and Dabsha hills, artillery at Habbouch, and an expansion of activity into the Jabal al-Rafii area of Jezzine district. CIS could not establish with confidence which date this reporting describes — it may substantially overlap with incidents already coded for 15 or 16 August rather than represent new activity. It is not coded today under the never-infer rule and is flagged for the backfill review rather than assigned a guessed date.
5 · Scoring — Full Working
Nabatieh
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 19 August, decay 1.000000 | 7.20 |
| 18 August, decay 0.750000 (4.80 × 0.75) | 3.60 |
| 17 August, decay 0.562500 | 0.00 |
| 16 August, decay 0.421875 (34.40 × 0.421875) | 14.51 |
| 15 August, decay 0.316406 (187.40 × 0.316406) | 59.29 |
| 14 August, decay 0.237305 (8.40 × 0.237305) | 1.99 |
| 12–13 August | 0.00 — not coded |
| Raw Load L | 86.59 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−86.59/100)) | 43.45 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier (active armed conflict) | 8 |
| Score | 73.45 → 73 🟠 |
South Lebanon
| Component | Value |
|---|---|
| 19 August, decay 1.000000 | 0.00 |
| 18 August, decay 0.750000 (6.00 × 0.75) | 4.50 |
| 17 August, decay 0.562500 | 0.00 |
| 16 August, decay 0.421875 (8.00 × 0.421875) | 3.38 |
| 15 August, decay 0.316406 (20.00 × 0.316406) | 6.33 |
| 14 August, decay 0.237305 (13.20 × 0.237305) | 3.13 |
| Raw Load L | 17.34 |
| Activity = 75 × (1 − e^(−17.34/100)) | 11.94 |
| Structural baseline | 22 |
| National context modifier | 8 |
| Score | 41.94 → 42 🟡 |
Remaining seven governorates
No scoring incidents logged within the window. Activity 0.00. Score = baseline + modifier.
| Governorate | Baseline | Modifier | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baalbek-Hermel | 16 | 8 | 24 🟢 |
| Beqaa Valley | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Mount Lebanon | 14 | 8 | 22 🟢 |
| Beirut | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| Akkar | 12 | 8 | 20 ⚪ |
| North Lebanon | 10 | 8 | 18 ⚪ |
| Keserwan-Jbeil | 8 | 8 | 16 ⚪ |
Parameters in force (frozen to 14 November 2026): methodology v3.0 · coding manual v3.1 · decay 0.75/day over 7 days · compression K=100 · activity ceiling 75 · fatality 8, injury 2, structure 3 capped at 12, displacement 5/district, route disruption 3 · confirmation multipliers 1.0 / 0.6 / 0.0.
6 · What CIS Is Watching
- Whether tonight's activity at Ali al-Taher continues the nightly pattern or breaks it.
- Whether the regional deterioration — the lapsed US–Iran ceasefire, the reported European-asset threat, the Syria–Turkey friction — produces escalation reaching Lebanon.
- Whether Israel's stated demand for withdrawal from Ali al-Taher becomes a formal negotiating position at the next Rome round.
- Whether the 12–13 August coding gap, once closed, materially changes the current floor.
- Whether Hezbollah claims or continues not to claim the 15 August drone attack.
7 · CIS Operational Posture
CIS maintains Level 5 — Severe Alert.
The Index has fallen for the second consecutive day and crossed one band threshold in the process, while nightly activity at Ali al-Taher continues uninterrupted. Posture remains unchanged: it is set against forward risk to client sites by operations management, not derived from the score by formula. Regional conditions have deteriorated since Sunday, not improved, and a seven-day decay window cannot capture that.
(CIS Posture Levels 1–5: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#posture)
Practical effect for active client sites:
- Continuous supervisor contact for all sites in Nabatieh and South Lebanon governorates, including Tyre district sites.
- Reinforcement standby maintained under the 24/7 emergency line for active clients.
- Route and access planning reviewed daily for all southern sites.
- New deployments continue within 24 hours of contract confirmation.
8 · Assessment
Two things are true this morning, and neither cancels the other. The Index has fallen for a second straight day, and Israeli aircraft struck two locations in Nabatieh governorate overnight for at least the fifth time in five nights.
The fall is arithmetic, not de-escalation. Saturday's mass-casualty day is now at a 0.32 decay weight and will be gone from the window within days. What replaces it is smaller: two Reported, single-chain incidents at Ali al-Taher and Kfar Rumman, alongside yesterday's shelling continuing to decay. CIS expects the Index to keep falling through the coming days on current information, purely as a function of the window moving forward — and says so now, so that trajectory is read correctly when it happens rather than mistaken for a new development each morning.
One genuine improvement sits alongside that: confidence rises to MODERATE for the first time, because the uncoded gap inside the window has shrunk to two days. This is real, and it is also modest — the floor is a slightly higher floor, not a ceiling, and 12–13 August remain unaccounted for.
The regional picture, which does not enter the score, has moved in the wrong direction since Sunday: the ceasefire has lapsed, Washington has ruled out an extension, and Iran is reported to have weighed striking US assets outside the immediate theatre. CIS holds Level 5 posture against that picture, independent of what the Lebanon number does on any given morning.
For Beirut, Mount Lebanon, North Lebanon, Akkar and Keserwan-Jbeil, conditions remain calm and normal operations continue. Four governorates read MINIMAL. The severity remains concentrated in the south, and CIS states that plainly so clients can plan against reality rather than against the shape of a decay curve.
9 · Sources
Tier 2 — regional and national outlets Haaretz live coverage, 19 August (Ali al-Taher Ridge and Kfar Rumman strikes; no casualties reported) · Bloomberg (US–Iran ceasefire lapse; Trump ruling out extension) · Reuters, via Financial Times (Iran considering strikes on US assets in Europe, including Cyprus and Bulgaria) · Middle East Eye (Israeli PMO statement on Turkey–Syria–Idlib) · Asharq Al-Awsat, via regional aggregation (Israeli demand for Hezbollah withdrawal from Ali al-Taher as a ceasefire-solidification condition).
Note under coding rule 4.6: both of today's Lebanon incidents rest on Lebanese media reporting relayed through a single outlet chain at compilation time — one originating source, coded Reported.
Not coded — insufficiently dated Reporting describing white phosphorus shelling, additional Ali al-Taher-area locations, and an expansion into Jezzine district, attributed to a correspondent for a francophone Lebanese outlet. Date could not be established with confidence against CIS's existing 15–16 August incident set. Flagged for the backfill review rather than assigned a guessed date.
> ⚠️ Responsible-use disclaimer > The CIS Lebanon Security Index™ is a professional situational assessment published as a free public service. It is informational — it is not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. CIS Security accepts no liability for decisions made solely on Index readings. In an emergency, contact official emergency services. > Methodology: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#methodology > Source register: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#sources > Corrections and revisions: cissecurity.net/lebanon-security-index/#corrections > To challenge a score: info@cissecurity.net with the date, governorate and basis.
Request security coverage → https://app.cissecurity.net/request Speak to CIS → +961-3-539900 · info@cissecurity.net
About CIS Security
CIS Security is one of Lebanon's most established security companies, providing professional security guard services across the country since 1990. From its headquarters in Jdeide, Beirut, CIS deploys 50+ licensed, uniformed guards on active duty nationwide, with more than 2,000 guards trained since 1990 and hundreds of properties protected.
CIS security services in Lebanon include residential security guards for towers, compounds and gated communities; commercial, retail and industrial security services; hospital and school security; jewelry store and high-value retail protection; executive protection and VIP services; and event security. These are supported by CCTV systems, electronic security and access control, GPS tracking and fleet management, risk assessment, professional security consulting, and crisis management and emergency response.
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New client deployments begin within 24 hours of contract confirmation, and a 24/7/365 emergency line is maintained for active clients. CIS Security also publishes the CIS Lebanon Security Index™, Lebanon's first daily public security intelligence platform, covering all nine governorates every morning at 8:00 AM.
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CIS Lebanon Security Index™ · Wednesday, 19 August 2026 · Conflict Day 171 · Truce Day 60 Methodology v3.0 · Coding Manual v3.1 · Compiled in Beirut CIS Security — Because Your Safety Isn't Optional — Since 1990
