Lebanon Security Index — November 11, 2026

قراءة النسخة العربية من النشرة

WAR DAY 255 · TRUCE DAY 145 · November 11, 2026 · OVERALL INDEX: 75/100 (HIGH, final; revised from provisional 73)

Revised November 12, 2026: incidents reported after this edition's morning compile were coded the next day, including two Israeli air strikes on Wadi Hujeir and one on Mansouri on Wednesday, with artillery on Wadi Slouqi and Bani Hayyan (NNA via Al Arabiya). No new casualties were reported. The final national level for November 11 is 75/100 (HIGH), not the provisional 73 shown below: Nabatieh 75, South Lebanon 64, all other governorates unchanged. See the November 12 edition.

War Day 255 · Truce Day 145 · Covers Nov 9 evening → Nov 11 · Latest item retrieved: Nov 10, 16:22 Beirut · Methodology v2.1 EDITION CONFIDENCE: LOW (collection gap) · SCORE STATUS: PROVISIONAL (no Nov 10 or Nov 11 ground report retrieved). November 10 scores are FINAL at 74 / 63 (decay values; no scorable report found).

INDEX DASHBOARD

BLUF — BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT

• What happened: NNA-sourced reports compiled by Libnanews for Monday, Nov 9 add detail to the earlier strikes: a drone dropped a grenade on farmers at Deir Mimas (no one wounded); air strikes hit Kfar Tebnit (morning and 18:19), Qantara and Markaba (18:21); a drone fired a guided missile near Jarmaq; Zawtar Sharqieh and Mayfadoun were shelled; an explosion and machine-gun sweeps hit Khiam. No casualties were reported. On Nov 10, Rubio said there is "no need for major combat operations" against Iran, since economic pressure "is so devastating", while the Revolutionary Guards claimed two tankers were burning in Hormuz (unconfirmed). Macron is pushing a European-led force to follow UNIFIL; Rubio said a civilian mission is possible.
• What it means: A drone-dropped grenade on farmers is a direct civilian hazard in harvest season, and no injuries is luck, not safety. CIS scores no change from decay (73) because no Nov 10–11 ground report was retrieved; this is a collection gap, not evidence of calm. The post-UNIFIL force is now a live diplomatic file, but no option has been chosen with 50 days to the mandate's end.
• What to do: In the south, stay indoors after dark near Hadatha, Mansouri and Baraachit. Farmers: work in groups, leave if drones circle, and touch nothing that is dropped. Avoid roads and fields around Kfar Tebnit, Qantara and Markaba. The CIS watch window runs to Nov 17.

Quick answer — Is Lebanon safe today (November 11, 2026)? The far south is HIGH risk (Nabatieh 73, South Lebanon 62, provisional): air strikes, drone attacks and shelling continue, though no casualties were reported Nov 7–10. Beirut is LOW (36); no evacuation order. Beqaa (29), Baalbek-Hermel (27), Mount Lebanon (26), Keserwan-Jbeil (21) are LOW; North (17) and Akkar (16) MINIMAL. No disruption at Beirut airport has been reported.

GOVERNORATE MATRIX

HOTSPOT TRACKER (since Nov 2; counts approximate)

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

1. South Lebanon: a drone grenade on farmers; strikes by day and evening

• Libnanews (compiling NNA dispatches, Nov 9, Beirut times): Qantara strike (09:21); Kfar Tebnit raids (09:23, 09:52) and another strike (18:19); an Israeli drone dropped a grenade on farmers at Deir Mimas (12:30), no one wounded; heavy shelling near Zawtar Sharqieh and Mayfadoun (13:31); an explosion on Chreika hill, Khiam (14:31) and machine-gun fire during sweeps (14:54); a drone-fired guided missile near Jarmaq (17:09); an air strike at Markaba (18:21). No consolidated toll; the Health Ministry page had no Nov 9 communiqué — REPORTED.
• Nov 10 and Nov 11: no ground report retrieved (a Youm7 headline on Nov 10 could not be opened) — UNVERIFIED.

CIS Assessment: Drone-dropped munitions now appear in two places (Aita al-Jabal on Nov 8, Deir Mimas on Nov 9), both near people working or living. Combined with daytime strikes, this raises the risk for farmers more than for villagers indoors. (Analyst confidence: MODERATE.)

2. Iran: "no need" for major combat; a tanker claim

• Rubio (AFP via Naharnet, Nov 10, 15:55, after the G7 meeting in Paris): "The economic campaign (against Iran) is so devastating that right now there is no need for major combat operations" — REPORTED.
• Iranian Revolutionary Guards (AFP via Naharnet, Nov 10, 14:49): two oil tankers "brought to a halt following massive explosions and are left burning" in the Strait of Hormuz; one struck a mine, the second, under US escort, had "an incident". The Guards named neither tanker; the US military has said all mines were cleared, and Tehran has made similar claims before — UNVERIFIED.
• Trump (via Times of Israel, Truth Social): no new offensive "for the time being"; Iran's Rezaei: "surrender to the seven conditions" — REPORTED.

3. UNIFIL: who fills the gap

• Fox News (Nov 10): Macron wants a new multinational force, possibly thousands of European troops, to support the Lebanese Army; its size, mandate and participants are unconfirmed, and Italy reportedly will not send troops under the current proposal. Rubio: "It could be a civilian mission" to verify Israeli withdrawals, Lebanese Army control and Hezbollah's exclusion. The UN has put three options to the Security Council, which has not chosen. US Ambassador Mike Waltz: UNIFIL "will not continue" in its current form — REPORTED.
• G7 (Nov 10, via AFP): ministers agree on "the need to avoid a security void" — REPORTED.

CIS Assessment: Expect the successor debate (civilian monitors vs. a European force) to dominate diplomacy until Dec 31; Israel has already rejected expanded UN observer mandates (Asharq Al-Awsat, Nov 9). (Analyst confidence: MODERATE.)

• UNIFIL patrol (update after compile, evening of Nov 10): UNIFIL says one of its patrols came under gunfire near Wadi Jilou in the Tyre district: about a dozen rounds, a muzzle flash, return fire, and then the shooting stopped, with no casualties and no attacker named. MTV, citing unnamed sources, says the patrol was Finnish. UNIFIL asked the Lebanese authorities to investigate (Al Jazeera, LBCI, Times of Israel). CIS has not scored the incident — REPORTED.

4. Lebanon: sovereignty positions

• Jebran Bassil (FPM, after meeting Aoun at Baabda, Nov 10): "Sovereignty requires Israel's withdrawal and the Lebanese state's commitment to a monopoly on weapons"; he rejects "forced normalization" and proposes international security guarantees — REPORTED.
• Raad (Naharnet headline, Nov 10; speaker's role not confirmed from the text): some Lebanese have a "racist, factional mentality and want to monopolize power" (headline-level; full text not read) — REPORTED.

INCIDENT LOG

WATCH INDICATORS (UNSCORED)

INDICATORS & WARNINGS — TRIPWIRES (UNSCORED)

72-HOUR OUTLOOK (UNSCORED — estimative) · Nov 11–13

• Most likely (likely): strikes, drone attacks, demolitions and shelling continue; Nabatieh 72–76 once reporting catches up.
• Alternative (roughly even chance): a Health Ministry toll update; an Israeli coalition move.
• Escalation case (unlikely): a strike with casualties; a confirmed Hormuz incident prompting US action.

INFRASTRUCTURE & SERVICES BOARD

SECTOR ADVISORIES

South: strikes continue by day and evening; stay indoors after dark near Hadatha, Mansouri and Baraachit; keep away from outposts and burned or bulldozed houses. Farmers: a drone dropped a grenade on farmers at Deir Mimas; work in groups, leave if drones circle, touch nothing that is dropped, and report it to the Army. Kfar Tebnit, Qantara, Markaba: air strikes again on Nov 9, including in the evening; avoid roads and fields around these towns. Beirut: no evacuation order. Businesses & NGOs: CIS watch window runs to Nov 17; keep fuel and cash buffers; review at the Nov 14 Weekly. Travellers: Beirut airport operating.

STATEMENTS REGISTER

FORWARD CALENDAR

STATISTICS — NOVEMBER 11

KEY UNKNOWNS & COLLECTION PRIORITIES

1. Ground reports for Nov 10 and Nov 11 (none retrieved).
2. Any Health Ministry toll newer than Nov 5.
3. Whether the Deir Mimas resident reported released on Nov 8 (Daily Beirut) is the man taken on Nov 6, and how he was freed.
4. Whether the Hormuz tanker fires are real, and which ships.
5. Which UNIFIL-successor option the Security Council will weigh.

CORRECTIONS & REVISIONS REGISTER

SOURCE & VERIFICATION LOG

Checked: Libnanews (NNA dispatches, Nov 9), Naharnet (homepage and four articles: AFP, Nov 10), Fox News (Nov 10), Hawar News (an archived Sept 27 item, excluded). Failed or blocked: Terrorism-info.org.il (robots), Youm7 Nov 10 (URL too long), Anadolu. No Nov 11 item found on Naharnet's homepage. Not checked: L'Orient Today, MoPH directly, IDF, UNIFIL, Lebanese Army, CIS field reports. → Edition Confidence: LOW.

FAQ — LEBANON SECURITY TODAY

What is Lebanon's security level today, November 11, 2026? 73/100 (HIGH), provisional, set by Nabatieh. Nov 10 was final at 74.

Where did Israel strike on November 9? NNA-sourced reports cite strikes on Kfar Tebnit, Qantara and Markaba, a drone missile near Jarmaq, a drone-dropped grenade on farmers at Deir Mimas, and shelling of Zawtar Sharqieh, Mayfadoun and Khiam. No casualties were reported.

Who will replace UNIFIL? Nobody has been chosen. Macron wants a European-led force; Rubio says a civilian mission is possible; the UN has put three options to the Security Council. The mandate ends December 31, 2026.

How many people have been killed in Lebanon since March 2? The Health Ministry reports 4,390 killed and 12,429 injured as of November 5.

Is Beirut safe today? Beirut scores 36/100 (LOW). No evacuation order.

Beyond the Index: Request a security offer → · +961 3 539900 · info@cissecurity.net · Emergency: Red Cross 140 · Civil Defence 125 · ISF 112 · Army South Liaison +961-8-802-510

Informational professional assessment — not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. Declaration of interest: CIS Security provides security services; the Index is editorially governed by its published methodology.

Cite: CIS Security. "CIS Lebanon Security Index™ — November 11, 2026 (War Day 255): 73/100, HIGH (provisional)." cissecurity.net/security-index/november-11-2026/

Sources: MTV Lebanon, "An Israeli drone has dropped a bomb near farmers on the outskirts of Deir Mimas with no injuries reported" (Nov 9); Al Mayadeen, "Israeli forces shell southern Lebanon, target olive harvesters" (Nov 9); Reuters via Yahoo News, "Rubio says no need for major combat operations on Iran given US economic campaign" (Nov 10); Al Jazeera, "Rubio backs blockade, Vance wants deal: Is Trump's team split on Iran war?" (Nov 11); France 24, "G7 agrees on need to avoid 'security void' in Lebanon after UN force mandate ends: Paris" (Nov 10); The Jerusalem Post, "Israel to oppose Emmanuel Macron plan for European force to replace UNIFIL" (Nov 10); Anadolu Agency, "Iran's Revolutionary Guards say 2 oil tankers hit mines, caught fire near Strait of Hormuz" (Nov 10); LBCI, "UNIFIL patrol comes under gunfire near South Lebanon's Wadi Jilou, no peacekeepers injured" (Nov 10); Libnanews (NNA dispatches, Nov 9); Fox News (Macron and UNIFIL, Nov 10); Naharnet (AFP items, Nov 10); Daily Beirut (release of a Deir Mimas resident, Nov 8).

Compilation notes: Editorial checks matched each cited report to its source link; other outlets confirm that a drone dropped a device near farmers harvesting olives at Deir Mimas on November 9 with no injuries (MTV Lebanon, Al Mayadeen, Arab News), though most describe a stun or sound grenade rather than a lethal one; Rubio's remark that there is no need for major combat operations against Iran (Reuters via Yahoo, Al Jazeera); the Macron plan for a European-led force, Rubio's civilian-mission remark, Waltz's statement that UNIFIL will not continue in its present form and the UN's three options (Fox News, France 24; the Jerusalem Post reports Israel opposes the Macron plan); and the IRGC's claim of two burning tankers (Anadolu, Gulf News), which echoes earlier IRGC claims from November 6–8, is disputed by the US, and varies between outlets in the number of ships. CIS found no further ground reports for November 10 or 11, so the scores remain decay values, and could not confirm the Bassil quote or the Raad headline beyond Naharnet. The Baalbek-Hermel trail in the governorate table was corrected to the published scores (33 · 32 · 31 · 30 · 29 · 28 · 27). Update after compile: UNIFIL reported gunfire at one of its patrols on the evening of November 10 (no casualties; not scored), and Daily Beirut reported the release of a Deir Mimas resident on November 8. The edition-number placeholder and internal format label were removed, and a sources list was added. The supplied CIS scores are retained. Revised November 12: the November 12 edition's final figures (national 75; Nabatieh 75, South Lebanon 64) replace the provisional 73 in the headline, scoreboard and Index data; the edition text is kept as published.

Related CIS editions and methodology

• November 10, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• November 9, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• November 8, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• November 7, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• Index methodology and risk bands
• All Lebanon Security Index reports
• Contact CIS Security