Lebanon Security Index — October 31, 2026

قراءة النسخة العربية من النشرة

WAR DAY 244 · TRUCE DAY 134 · October 31, 2026 · OVERALL INDEX: 72/100 (HIGH, provisional)

War Day 244 · Truce Day 134 · Compiled October 31, 09:30 Beirut (covers Oct 30 → Oct 31, 09:00) · Methodology v2.1 EDITION CONFIDENCE: LOW (collection gap) · SCORE STATUS: PROVISIONAL (no Oct 31 incident report located yet). October 30 scores revised up to 73 / 65 and now FINAL.

INDEX DASHBOARD

BLUF — BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT

• What happened: On Oct 30, Israeli forces set houses on fire in Qantara, blew up a house on the Kfarshouba–Sedana Hill–Shebaa road and carried out a detonation in Tiri (Bint Jbeil). Heavy machine-gun fire hit Khiam and Qantara. Artillery hit Mayfadoun–Zawtar Sharqieh, Wadi Hujeir, Kfarshouba, Hadatha and Wadi Zibqin, and an interceptor missile exploded over Taybeh. A young man from Rab Thalathine is missing after he left his car in Wadi Hujeir and walked toward Qantara. No casualties were reported. In Beirut, the Military Court commissioner charged 13 people in the Hezbollah explosives case.
• What it means: October 30 is revised up to 73. This is the second interceptor report in three days, and nobody has explained either one. The fire is moving from strikes to destruction of homes, which deepens the risk for anyone returning to frontline villages. In Beirut, the charges move the explosives dispute from politics to the courts, and the Kataeb are now pressing for the Judicial Council.
• What to do: Stay out of valleys and open ground near the strip, including Wadi Hujeir. Never walk toward Israeli positions. Families of anyone missing: report to the Army and the ICRC at once. Organisations: the Nov 4–10 contingency plan is due Sunday. There is no evacuation order anywhere in Lebanon.

Quick answer — Is Lebanon safe today (October 31, 2026)? The far south is HIGH risk (Nabatieh 72, South Lebanon 64, provisional). Homes were burned and blown up on Oct 30, and a civilian is missing near the strip. Beirut is LOW (36); no evacuation order. Baalbek-Hermel (30), Beqaa (29), Mount Lebanon (26), Keserwan-Jbeil (21) are LOW; North (17) and Akkar (16) MINIMAL. No disruption at Beirut airport has been reported.

GOVERNORATE MATRIX

ʳ = revised (Oct 30 provisional 72/64 → final 73/65).

HOTSPOT TRACKER (Oct 25–31)

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

1. Homes burned and blown up along the strip

Facts / Reports:

• NNA (via Anadolu, WAFA, Naharnet): Israeli forces set residential houses on fire in Qantara and fired heavy machine guns at Khiam and Qantara — CORROBORATED (three outlets, one original source).
• NNA: the house of Kfarshouba resident Hassan Nabaa, on the Kfarshouba–Sedana Hill–Shebaa road, was blown up and its contents destroyed — REPORTED.
• NNA: an Israeli detonation in Tiri (Bint Jbeil district) in the afternoon; Naharnet also reports detonations in Shebaa — REPORTED.
• No casualties reported. The Israeli army has not commented.

CIS Assessment: Burning and demolishing named, privately owned houses goes beyond targeting military sites: it denies return to the frontline villages. This matches the pattern since the June framework, in which Israel holds a security zone and clears structures near it. It keeps Civilian hazard SEVERE. (Analyst confidence: MODERATE.)

2. Shelling from Tyre to the Arqoub; an interceptor over Taybeh

• Artillery (NNA via Anadolu, WAFA): intermittent shelling between Mayfadoun and Zawtar Sharqieh; 155 mm shells on Wadi Hujeir toward Touline; shelling on the outskirts of Kfarshouba (Arqoub) and Hadatha (Bint Jbeil), and on Wadi Zibqin (Tyre) — REPORTED.
• NNA (via Anadolu): an interceptor missile exploded over Taybeh — REPORTED. No target, launcher or debris damage has been reported.
• No casualties reported.

CIS Assessment: Taybeh is the second interceptor report in three days, after the army said on Oct 28 that it fired at a "suspected aerial target". Interceptors need a target. Unless the army explains, CIS has to treat this as possible aerial activity against Israeli forces from Lebanon, which is the clearest escalation trigger. Tripwire stays PARTIAL. (Analyst confidence: LOW on what was intercepted.)

3. A young man missing in Wadi Hujeir

• NNA (via MTV, Anadolu): a young man from Rab Thalathine parked his car in Wadi Hujeir and continued on foot toward Qantara; contact with him was lost and there has been no information on his whereabouts since — REPORTED. His name and age have not been published.
• Cause UNVERIFIED. CIS has no report of an arrest, injury or death. Israeli forces have detained civilians in Wadi Hujeir before (Naharnet, earlier in 2026).

CIS Assessment: Wadi Hujeir is on the edge of the zone Israel controls and was shelled the same day. Detention, injury or getting lost in a closed area are all possible; CIS cannot rank them. (Analyst confidence: LOW.)

4. Explosives case: 13 charged

• NNA (via Naharnet, The National): the Government Commissioner to the Military Court, Judge Claude Ghanem, charged 13 people in the case of the explosives truck stopped at Dahr el-Baydar earlier in October — CONFIRMED (judicial action reported by the state agency).
• Named (Naharnet, citing MTV): Haytham Amhaz and Ali al-Kurdi (Hezbollah members, in custody); Hezbollah security officials Ibrahim Habib ("Sajid") and Bilal Sabouri ("Zulfiqar"); Mohammad Zoaiter (escort car); Mohammad Hazimeh (vehicle owner); Mohammad Ayoub; Iryna Kryshynova (Amhaz's wife); and five Hezbollah members known only by noms de guerre — REPORTED.
• Charges: offences against internal and external state security, membership of a banned organisation, and arms and explosives possession (The National; MTV via Naharnet). NNA cites a maximum of 10 years — REPORTED.
• Quantity: DISPUTED. Naharnet cites judicial officials for 780 kg; The National says about half a tonne (250 kg TNT-type plus 250 kg C4).
• Kataeb leader Sami Gemayel urged Aoun and Salam to refer the case to the Judicial Council and not to "yield to blackmail": "Any threat to civil peace is a threat to the state itself." Al-Binaa cites a legal source as saying the prosecution did not adopt a terrorism charge — REPORTED.
• The National: US Secretary of State Rubio called President Aoun and urged him not to return the explosives — REPORTED.

CIS Assessment: The charges are the state's firmest legal step against Hezbollah members since the war began. They lower the risk that the explosives are quietly returned, but they raise the risk of political confrontation, with the Kataeb and LF on one side and Hezbollah on the other. Internal stability: ELEVATED. (Analyst confidence: MODERATE.)

5. Lebanon's politics: demands unmet, Amal–Hezbollah strain

• President Aoun (Oct 29): Lebanon's four demands in the talks with Israel (a ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal, border demarcation and the return of prisoners) "have not yet been met"; "Lasting stability cannot be attained through military force alone" — REPORTED (Naharnet, Arab News).
• Nidaa al-Watan (via Naharnet): Speaker Berri is trying to keep Hezbollah out of any Iran war. "Silent disagreements" between Amal and Hezbollah "could turn into an open political confrontation." Al-Jadeed: Hezbollah has not promised Berri it will stay out — REPORTED.
• Abu Faour: Walid Jumblat offered to help Aoun find an alternative negotiation path — REPORTED (headline only; text not checked).

6. Iran: strike options, mediation and tanker attacks

• Pentagon strike options on Iran are being presented to Trump for after the Nov 3 midterms (Fox News, citing reports). There is still no announced decision — REPORTED.
• Mediation: a Qatari delegation arrived in Tehran (Oct 30). Iranian media say VP Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, and the NYT says it went via Qatari mediators. Officials from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey also visited Tehran this week (AFP via Naharnet) — REPORTED.
• Hormuz: Oman evacuated 25 crew from the burning tanker RITI. The IRGC says three tankers were halted after "incidents" south of the strait. UKMTO: the tanker Louise 1 caught fire after two limpet mines were attached by a small boat, reported as the first confirmed limpet-mine attack of the current war. CENTCOM says the main transit routes are clear of mines — REPORTED.
• Markets: Brent $117.62 on Oct 30, a six-month high (Fox News) — REPORTED.
• Saudi coalition: it says it shot down a Houthi drone over the Mecca region; the Houthis called this a "fabrication" — DISPUTED.

7. Israel: no majority, process set

• AP (via PBS): final count — Netanyahu bloc 53, opposition bloc 48, Arab-led parties 19; 61 is needed for a majority. Results go to President Herzog for certification next Wednesday (Nov 4); the Knesset is expected to be sworn in Nov 10. If repeated attempts fail, Israel faces another election early next year. The Elections Committee called fraud claims "baseless" — CONFIRMED (final count).

INCIDENT LOG

WATCH INDICATORS (UNSCORED)

INDICATORS & WARNINGS — TRIPWIRES (UNSCORED)

72-HOUR OUTLOOK (UNSCORED — estimative) · Oct 31–Nov 2

• Most likely (likely): demolitions, house burnings and shelling continue along the strip; Nabatieh 72–74 once Oct 31 reporting arrives.
• Alternative (roughly even chance): news on the missing man, either a detention claim or a body recovered by the Army or Red Cross; the latter would end the 19-day count without a civilian death.
• Escalation case (unlikely before Nov 3): an Israeli claim that a drone or rocket came from Lebanon, followed by strikes outside the security zone.

INFRASTRUCTURE & SERVICES BOARD

SECTOR ADVISORIES

South: stay out of valleys and open ground near the strip, including Wadi Hujeir; never walk toward Israeli positions, even to check land or a vehicle; if you hear drones or a blast overhead, get indoors away from windows; never touch debris or metal. Qantara, Khiam, Kfarshouba, Shebaa: expect fire on homes; keep a go-bag and an exit route away from the strip; do not return to damaged houses until the Army clears them. Families of a missing person: report to the Lebanese Army and the ICRC at once, with the last known location, time and vehicle. Beirut's southern suburbs: no evacuation order; keep the family plan ready. Businesses & NGOs: Nov 4–10 plan due Sunday: staff list, two weeks of fuel and water, cash, backup comms, relocation for staff in the south and Dahiyeh. Budget for higher fuel costs. Travellers: Beirut airport operating; avoid connections via Riyadh and Dammam where possible.

STATEMENTS REGISTER

FORWARD CALENDAR

STATISTICS — OCTOBER 31

KEY UNKNOWNS & COLLECTION PRIORITIES

1. Where is the missing man from Rab Thalathine? Army, ICRC and UNIFIL statements.
2. What were the Oct 28 and Oct 30 interceptors fired at?
3. Will the Cabinet refer the explosives case to the Judicial Council?
4. The explosives quantity (780 kg or ~500 kg).
5. Oct 31 daytime incidents.

CORRECTIONS & REVISIONS REGISTER

SOURCE & VERIFICATION LOG

Checked: Naharnet (homepage and five articles), Anadolu (NNA material, via UA.NEWS), WAFA, Palestinian Information Center (NNA and MoPH figures), MTV Lebanon, The National, Arab News, LBCI press digest, AP via PBS, Fox News live. Not checked: L'Orient Today, MoPH directly, IDF directly, UNIFIL, Lebanese Army, CIS field reports. Most south Lebanon items trace back to one original source (NNA). → Edition Confidence: LOW.

FAQ — LEBANON SECURITY TODAY

What is Lebanon's security level today, October 31, 2026? 72/100 (HIGH), provisional, set by Nabatieh. Oct 30 was revised up to 73.

What happened in south Lebanon on October 30? Lebanon's NNA reports that Israeli forces burned houses in Qantara, blew up a house near Shebaa, shelled several villages and that an interceptor missile exploded over Taybeh. No casualties were reported.

Who is missing in Wadi Hujeir? NNA reports a young man from Rab Thalathine lost contact after walking from Wadi Hujeir toward Qantara. His fate is unknown.

How many people were charged in the Hezbollah explosives case? 13, by the Military Court's government commissioner, on October 30. Two are in custody.

Is Beirut safe today? Beirut scores 36/100 (LOW). No evacuation order.

Beyond the Index: Request a security offer → · +961 3 539900 · info@cissecurity.net · Emergency: Red Cross 140 · Civil Defence 125 · ISF 112 · Army South Liaison +961-8-802-510

Informational professional assessment — not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. Declaration of interest: CIS Security provides security services; the Index is editorially governed by its published methodology.

Cite: CIS Security. "CIS Lebanon Security Index™ — October 31, 2026 (War Day 244): 72/100, HIGH (provisional)." cissecurity.net/security-index/october-31-2026/

Sources: MTV Lebanon, "Israeli forces have set fire to homes in the town of Qantara as they were carrying out a sweeping operation" (Oct 30); Middle East Monitor, "Israel blows up homes, shells towns in southern Lebanon" (Oct 31); Naharnet, "13 charged in Hezbollah explosives case" (Oct 30); LBCI, "Dahr al Baidar explosives case takes new turn as 13 face charges" (Oct 30); gCaptain, "Tanker Hit by Limpet Mines in Strait of Hormuz as New Threat to Shipping Emerges" (Oct 30); The Maritime Executive, "Oman Evacuates Tanker Crew as Iran Claims Spate of New Attacks" (Oct 30); NNA via Anadolu and WAFA (south reports, Oct 30); The National and Arab News (explosives case, Aoun); AP via PBS (Israeli count); Fox News (Brent, Iran options).

Compilation notes: Editorial checks matched each cited report to its source link; other outlets confirm the house burnings in Qantara and the house blown up on the Kfarshouba–Shebaa road (MTV, Middle East Monitor citing NNA), the charges against 13 people in the Dahr el-Baydar explosives case (Naharnet, LBCI), the limpet-mine attack on the Louise 1 and Oman's evacuation of 25 crew from the RITI (gCaptain, Maritime Executive). The Taybeh interceptor rests on NNA alone; the Israeli army has attributed several similar launches this month to false identifications but has not explained the October 28 or October 30 launches. The Louise 1 line was corrected: reports describe it as the first confirmed limpet-mine attack of the current war, not the first since February. The edition-number placeholder and internal format label were removed, and a sources list was added. The supplied CIS scores are retained.

Related CIS editions and methodology

• October 30, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• October 29, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• October 28, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• October 27, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• Index methodology and risk bands
• All Lebanon Security Index reports
• Contact CIS Security