Lebanon Security Index — November 12, 2026

قراءة النسخة العربية من النشرة

WAR DAY 256 · TRUCE DAY 146 · November 12, 2026 · OVERALL INDEX: 74/100 (HIGH)

Confirmed November 13, 2026: this edition was published as provisional. The November 13 edition confirmed the scores as final without change (national 74; Nabatieh 74, South Lebanon 63). They are decay values, because no scorable November 12 report was found, and they may be low: Anadolu, citing NNA, reports three Israeli drones exploding at Mayfadoun on November 12, two on the roofs of homes, and air strikes on Hadatha and Mansouri. CIS has not rescored them. Low-flying drones also began flying over Beirut on November 12 (not scored). See the November 13 edition.

War Day 256 · Truce Day 146 · Covers Nov 11 → Nov 12 · Latest item retrieved: Nov 12, 14:36 Beirut · Methodology v2.1 EDITION CONFIDENCE: LOW (collection gap) · SCORE STATUS: PROVISIONAL (no Nov 12 ground report retrieved). November 11 scores set at 75 / 64 and now FINAL.

INDEX DASHBOARD

BLUF — BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT

• What happened: On Wednesday, Nov 11, NNA-sourced reports (via Al Arabiya) cite two air strikes on Wadi Hujeir and one on Mansouri, with artillery on Wadi Slouqi and Bani Hayyan. No new casualties were reported. A UNIFIL briefing on Nov 10 logged six Israeli air strikes and 360 artillery shell trajectories from Thursday to Sunday (Nov 5–8), plus engineering works, road building and patrol restrictions. In Israel, caretaker Defence Minister Katz said the government needs no approval from the opposition for new military operations; Eisenkot urged restraint and Netanyahu agreed to meet him on national security. In Beirut, Speaker Berri answered "We are free" when asked to reject Iranian parliament speaker Ghalibaf's claim of a "unified front in peace and war".
• What it means: The UNIFIL count is the first independent tally in this series: roughly 1.5 air strikes and 90 shells a day across the south, most of which never reach the press. That supports keeping the south HIGH even on days when few incidents are reported. Katz's statement keeps an Israeli move on Iran possible before a new government forms, though Rubio said Nov 10 that no major combat is needed. UNIFIL's mandate ends Dec 31 (49 days).
• What to do: In the south, stay indoors after dark near Hadatha, Mansouri and Baraachit, and avoid the valley roads and fields around Wadi Hujeir and Mansouri. Farmers: work in daylight and in groups; touch nothing that is dropped by a drone. The CIS watch window runs to Nov 17; the Weekly Review is Saturday (Nov 14).

Quick answer — Is Lebanon safe today (November 12, 2026)? The far south is HIGH risk (Nabatieh 74, South Lebanon 63, provisional): air strikes, drone attacks and shelling continue, though no new casualties were reported. Beirut is LOW (36); no evacuation order. Beqaa (29), Baalbek-Hermel (26), Mount Lebanon (26), Keserwan-Jbeil (21) are LOW; North (17) and Akkar (16) MINIMAL. No disruption at Beirut airport has been reported.

GOVERNORATE MATRIX

HOTSPOT TRACKER (since Nov 2; counts approximate)

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

1. South Lebanon: Wednesday air strikes; UNIFIL's count

• Al Arabiya via Nesan (published Nov 11, 23:24; "on Wednesday"; citing NNA): two air strikes on Wadi Hujeir plus artillery; an air strike on Mansouri; artillery on Wadi Slouqi and Bani Hayyan. No Israeli statement quoted. The only casualty figures are cumulative — REPORTED.
• UNIFIL briefing (Nov 10, via Al Arabiya): six Israeli air strikes and 360 artillery shell trajectories from Thursday to Sunday (Nov 5–8), plus engineering works, road construction and patrol restrictions; signs of a prolonged Israeli presence in its eastern and western sectors — REPORTED.
• Youm7 (Nov 11 headline only): artillery and air strikes on southern towns "as the destruction of Zawtar's homes continues" — UNVERIFIED (article not opened).
• Nov 12 (update after compile): Anadolu, citing NNA, reports that three Israeli drones exploded in separate incidents at Mayfadoun, two on the roofs of homes and one above the town, and that air strikes hit Hadatha and Mansouri. A Nov 13 Naharnet item says low-flying drones flew over Beirut for a second day, so overflights began on Nov 12. None of this is scored — REPORTED.

CIS Assessment: The UNIFIL tally gives a floor for activity: about six air strikes and 360 shells in four days, against a handful of incidents in the press. Treat the press-based incident log as an undercount. (Analyst confidence: MODERATE.)

2. Israel: caretaker government, Iran option

• Katz (AFP via Naharnet, Nov 12, 14:36; on X): "We do not need approval from the opposition or any legal authority." — REPORTED.
• Eisenkot: urged Netanyahu to hold back; force without a "direct and immediate threat" could harm democracy and public trust. Netanyahu agreed to meet him on national security after Eisenkot complained of being denied a briefing. Liberman (new chair of the foreign and defence affairs committee): a caretaker government "is not allowed to make decisions that could drag Israel into war." Netanyahu's office accused Eisenkot of politicising security. Neither named Iran — REPORTED.
• Deadline: Eisenkot has until Dec 6, extendable by Herzog to Dec 20 — CONFIRMED (AFP).

CIS Assessment: Netanyahu had threatened during the campaign to resume the Iran war. Katz's line and Rubio's "no need" (Nov 10) point in opposite directions; CIS does not see a change in the south from either in the next 72 hours. (Analyst confidence: MODERATE.)

3. Lebanon: "We are free"

• Naharnet (Nov 12, 12:24): Kataeb leader Samy Gemayel asked Speaker Berri in Parliament to reject Ghalibaf's remark that Iran and Lebanon are a "unified front in peace and war". Berri: "We are free"; MPs applauded. Parliament also approved a $200 million World Bank loan for a social safety-net project — REPORTED.
• Aoun (Libnanews, remarks of Nov 11 at Baabda): defended the June 26 framework agreement as the best available option; tied state authority to reserving arms for state institutions and to restoring economic life in the south. Residents of Rmeish, Debel and Ain Ebel described movement restrictions and job losses to him. No new funding or timeline announced — REPORTED.

INCIDENT LOG

WATCH INDICATORS (UNSCORED)

INDICATORS & WARNINGS — TRIPWIRES (UNSCORED)

72-HOUR OUTLOOK (UNSCORED — estimative) · Nov 12–14

• Most likely (likely): strikes, shelling and demolitions continue; Nabatieh 73–76 once reporting catches up.
• Alternative (roughly even chance): a Netanyahu–Eisenkot meeting outcome; a Health Ministry toll update.
• Escalation case (unlikely): a strike with casualties, or an Israeli operation against Iran launched by the caretaker government.

INFRASTRUCTURE & SERVICES BOARD

SECTOR ADVISORIES

South: strikes continue by day and evening; stay indoors after dark near Hadatha, Mansouri and Baraachit; keep away from outposts and burned or bulldozed houses. Farmers: work in groups and in daylight; leave if drones circle; touch nothing that is dropped; report it to the Army. Wadi Hujeir and Mansouri: air strikes on Nov 11; avoid the valley roads and fields nearby. Beirut: no evacuation order; low-flying drones have been reported. Businesses & NGOs: CIS watch window runs to Nov 17; keep fuel and cash buffers; Weekly Review on Nov 14. Travellers: Beirut airport operating.

STATEMENTS REGISTER

FORWARD CALENDAR

STATISTICS — NOVEMBER 12

KEY UNKNOWNS & COLLECTION PRIORITIES

1. Ground reports for Nov 12 (none retrieved) and casualties, if any, on Nov 11.
2. Any Health Ministry toll newer than Nov 5.
3. Whether the Deir Mimas resident reported released on Nov 8 (Daily Beirut) is the man taken on Nov 6, and how he was freed.
4. Outcome of the Netanyahu–Eisenkot security meeting.
5. Whether UNIFIL publishes further tallies.

CORRECTIONS & REVISIONS REGISTER

SOURCE & VERIFICATION LOG

Checked: Al Arabiya via Nesan (Nov 11, 23:24; NNA and a UNIFIL briefing), Naharnet (homepage and three articles: AFP, Nov 12; one Nov 13 item used only to flag Beirut overflights), Libnanews (Aoun, Nov 11). Failed or blocked: Al Arabiya and Asharq Al-Awsat Arabic URLs (too long), Anadolu (robots-blocked), Youm7 (headline only). Not checked: L'Orient Today, MoPH directly, IDF, UNIFIL directly, Lebanese Army, CIS field reports. → Edition Confidence: LOW.

FAQ — LEBANON SECURITY TODAY

What is Lebanon's security level today, November 12, 2026? 74/100 (HIGH), provisional, set by Nabatieh. Nov 11 was final at 75.

Where did Israel strike on November 11? Reports cite two air strikes on Wadi Hujeir, one on Mansouri, and artillery on Wadi Slouqi and Bani Hayyan. No new casualties were reported.

How many Israeli strikes does UNIFIL count? A UNIFIL briefing logged six air strikes and 360 artillery shell trajectories from November 5 to 8.

Can Israel's caretaker government launch new operations? Defence Minister Katz says it needs no opposition approval; Eisenkot and Liberman say a caretaker government should not drag Israel into war.

Is Beirut safe today? Beirut scores 36/100 (LOW). No evacuation order, though low-flying drones have been reported.

Beyond the Index: Request a security offer → · +961 3 539900 · info@cissecurity.net · Emergency: Red Cross 140 · Civil Defence 125 · ISF 112 · Army South Liaison +961-8-802-510

Informational professional assessment — not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. Declaration of interest: CIS Security provides security services; the Index is editorially governed by its published methodology.

Cite: CIS Security. "CIS Lebanon Security Index™ — November 12, 2026 (War Day 256): 74/100, HIGH (provisional)." cissecurity.net/security-index/november-12-2026/

Sources: Anadolu Agency, "UN peacekeepers report signs of sustained Israeli presence in south Lebanon" (Nov 10); Times of Israel, "Katz insists government doesn't need permission from 'opposition' to launch military ops during post-election period" (Nov 12); Arab News, "Israeli defense minister says no need for opposition approval to launch strikes" (Nov 12); Naharnet, "Berri affirms Lebanon is free in response to Ghalibaf's 'unified front' remarks" (Nov 12); Anadolu Agency, "Israeli attacks hit areas in southern Lebanon" (Nov 12); Al Arabiya via Nesan (NNA and UNIFIL briefing, Nov 11); Libnanews (Aoun, Nov 11); AFP via Naharnet.

Compilation notes: Editorial checks matched each cited report to its source link; other outlets confirm the UNIFIL tally of six air strikes (three on Thursday, three on Sunday) and 360 artillery trajectories from November 5 to 8, as given by the UN deputy spokesman (Anadolu), Katz's statement and the planned Netanyahu–Eisenkot meeting (Times of Israel, Arab News), Liberman's warning about a caretaker government (i24NEWS, JFeed), and Berri's "We are free" reply to Gemayel on Ghalibaf's "unified front" remark (Naharnet, LBCI). Katz's "no approval" line was a response to concern that Netanyahu wants an operation against Iran; neither Eisenkot nor Liberman named Iran. The Baalbek-Hermel trail in the governorate table was corrected to the published scores (32 · 31 · 30 · 29 · 28 · 27 · 26). Update after compile: Anadolu reports three Israeli drone explosions at Mayfadoun on November 12 and air strikes on Hadatha and Mansouri, which the supplied edition does not cover; CIS has not rescored them. The edition-number placeholder and internal format label were removed, and a sources list was added. The supplied CIS scores are retained. Confirmed November 13: the scores stand as published (decay values; no scorable November 12 report was found).

Related CIS editions and methodology

• November 11, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• November 10, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• November 9, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• November 8, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• Index methodology and risk bands
• All Lebanon Security Index reports
• Contact CIS Security