Lebanon Security Index — November 13, 2026

قراءة النسخة العربية من النشرة

WAR DAY 257 · TRUCE DAY 147 · November 13, 2026 · OVERALL INDEX: 74/100 (HIGH, provisional)

War Day 257 · Truce Day 147 · Covers Nov 12 → Nov 13 · Latest item retrieved: Nov 13, 16:21 Beirut · Methodology v2.1 EDITION CONFIDENCE: LOW (collection gap) · SCORE STATUS: PROVISIONAL (Nov 13 daytime reports only; no Nov 12 ground report retrieved). November 12 scores are FINAL at 74 / 63 (decay values; no scorable report found).

INDEX DASHBOARD

BLUF — BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT

• What happened: On Friday, Nov 13, NNA (via Naharnet) reports an Israeli Merkava tank firing two shells at a house in Mayfadoun, a drone dropping a stun grenade on Yater, a heavy detonation by troops in Khiam, and artillery on Bani Hayyan, Tallousa, Majdal Zoun and Biyout al-Sayyad. Drones flew over Beirut for a second day. No casualties were reported. In the Gulf, CENTCOM said two Iranian Revolutionary Guards one-way attack drones aimed at Bahrain were shot down; the Guards claimed they destroyed a US radar there, which the US denied. In Beirut, Aoun and Salam agreed to put a Judicial Council referral of the Dahr al-Baidar explosives case to cabinet, and MTV reports five Hezbollah members were arrested in Bsharri.
• What it means: The south holds at its recent level: shelling, detonations and now tank fire at a house, with no casualties reported. The Bahrain exchange is the first Iranian targeting of a Bahrain site since September (AP) and comes as Netanyahu is pressing Trump to resume the Iran war (Mossad chief in Washington, Axios); Trump has so far declined. For Lebanon, a resumed Iran war is the main escalation risk. The Bsharri arrests and the explosives referral make the Hezbollah–judiciary clash a live internal-stability issue.
• What to do: In the south, stay indoors after dark near Hadatha, Mansouri and Baraachit, and stay away from the edges of Mayfadoun, Yater and Khiam. Farmers: work in daylight and groups; touch nothing dropped by a drone. The CIS watch window runs to Nov 17; the Weekly Review is tomorrow (Nov 14).

Quick answer — Is Lebanon safe today (November 13, 2026)? The far south is HIGH risk (Nabatieh 74, South Lebanon 63, provisional): shelling, detonations, drone munitions and air strikes continue, though no casualties were reported. Beirut is LOW (36); no evacuation order, but low-flying drones were reported for a second day. Mount Lebanon (26), Baalbek-Hermel (25), Keserwan-Jbeil (21), Beqaa (29) are LOW; North (17) and Akkar (16) MINIMAL. No disruption at Beirut airport has been reported.

GOVERNORATE MATRIX

HOTSPOT TRACKER (since Nov 2; counts approximate)

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

1. South Lebanon: tank fire at a house; detonations

• NNA via Naharnet (Nov 13, 15:16): an Israeli Merkava tank fired two shells at a house in Mayfadoun; an Israeli drone dropped a stun grenade on Yater; troops carried out a heavy detonation in Khiam; artillery targeted Bani Hayyan, Tallousa, Majdal Zoun and Biyout al-Sayyad; drones flew over Beirut for a second day in a row. No casualties reported; NNA is the only cited source — REPORTED.
• Nov 12 (update after compile): Anadolu, citing NNA, reports that three Israeli drones exploded in separate incidents at Mayfadoun on Nov 12, two on the roofs of homes and one above the town, and that air strikes hit Hadatha and Mansouri; the Beirut overflights began on Nov 12 as well. Not rescored — REPORTED.

CIS Assessment: Tank fire at a house and a stun grenade from a drone are lower-intensity than air strikes but land close to residents. With no air strike reported today, CIS holds the score rather than raising it. Overflights of Beirut are a signalling pattern, not an attack. (Analyst confidence: MODERATE.)

2. Gulf: drones aimed at Bahrain

• CENTCOM (on X, via AFP/Naharnet, Nov 13, 15:47): "The IRGC launched two one-way attack drones toward Bahrain and both were shot down by U.S. forces"; no injuries or damage. The US denied that any radar was destroyed — REPORTED.
• IRGC (via IRNA, AP/Naharnet, Nov 13, 10:42): claimed it "targeted and destroyed" a US early-warning radar in Bahrain, after a US strike on a telecommunications pole at Sirik; first reported Iranian targeting of a Bahrain facility since September — the radar claim is DENIED by the US.
• IRGC (via IRNA, Nov 13, 10:44): a liquefied petroleum gas tanker struck a mine in the Strait of Hormuz after "ignoring repeated warnings"; UKMTO had no immediate report — UNVERIFIED.

3. Israel and the US: pressure to resume the Iran war

• Axios (three sources, via Naharnet, Nov 13, 16:21): Mossad director Roman Gofman is in Washington, meeting CIA director John Ratcliffe and expected to see envoy Steve Witkoff in Miami, as Netanyahu presses Trump to resume fighting. Trump has so far declined, siding with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE on keeping a blockade while he tests for a deal; "I could end it immediately," he said — REPORTED.
• Context: on Nov 12, caretaker Defence Minister Katz said new operations need no opposition approval; Eisenkot is on day 6 of 28 (deadline Dec 6).

CIS Assessment: The Bahrain exchange and Netanyahu's lobbying raise the odds of renewed US–Iran fighting; a resumed war would likely draw Hezbollah-related escalation risk into Lebanon. CIS does not yet move any score on this. (Analyst confidence: LOW–MODERATE.)

4. Lebanon: the explosives case reaches cabinet; Bsharri arrests

• Naharnet, citing MTV (Nov 13, 15:18): Aoun and Salam agreed to put referral of the Dahr al-Baidar case to the Judicial Council on an upcoming cabinet agenda (no date). Judicial officials say a Hezbollah truck stopped at the checkpoint carried 780 kg of explosives; Hezbollah says they were meant for defence against Israel — REPORTED.
• Naharnet, citing MTV (Nov 13, 12:31): five Hezbollah members were arrested in Bsharri earlier this week; questioning has begun; their mission is unclear because the apartment had been emptied. MP Hussein Hajj Hassan asked Prosecutor Ahmad Rami al-Hajj to hand them over, saying they should be treated like Hezbollah prisoners held by Israel; the prosecutor said the investigation "would take its course" — REPORTED (secondhand).

• Bsharri (update after compile): Naharnet, citing MTV, later reported that the detainees told investigators they were surveilling the northern area to protect Shiite towns from attack. L'Orient Today reports that the ISF arrested them on Tuesday, Nov 10, in a mountain area between Batroun, Bsharri and Koura, and that maps and documents were seized. The account of their mission is secondhand and unverified — REPORTED.

CIS Assessment: This is the sharpest state–Hezbollah legal confrontation since the explosives seizure; watch for a cabinet date and any armed or street response. (Analyst confidence: MODERATE.)

INCIDENT LOG

WATCH INDICATORS (UNSCORED)

INDICATORS & WARNINGS — TRIPWIRES (UNSCORED)

72-HOUR OUTLOOK (UNSCORED — estimative) · Nov 13–15

• Most likely (likely): shelling, detonations and demolitions continue; Nabatieh 73–76.
• Alternative (roughly even chance): a cabinet date for the Dahr al-Baidar referral; a Netanyahu–Eisenkot meeting; further US–Iran incidents around Bahrain and Hormuz.
• Escalation case (unlikely): a resumed US or Israeli campaign against Iran; a strike with casualties in the south.

INFRASTRUCTURE & SERVICES BOARD

SECTOR ADVISORIES

South: shelling and detonations continue; stay indoors after dark near Hadatha, Mansouri and Baraachit; keep away from outposts and burned or bulldozed houses. Farmers: work in groups and in daylight; leave if drones circle; touch nothing that is dropped; report it to the Army. Mayfadoun, Yater, Khiam: tank fire at a house, a drone stun grenade and a heavy blast on Nov 13; stay away from the edges of these towns. Beirut: no evacuation order; low-flying drones reported for a second day. Businesses & NGOs: CIS watch window runs to Nov 17; keep fuel and cash buffers; Weekly Review on Nov 14. Travellers: Beirut airport operating; note Gulf airspace tension (Bahrain).

STATEMENTS REGISTER

FORWARD CALENDAR

STATISTICS — NOVEMBER 13

KEY UNKNOWNS & COLLECTION PRIORITIES

1. Ground reports for Nov 12 and the evening of Nov 13.
2. Any Health Ministry toll newer than Nov 5.
3. Whether the Deir Mimas resident reported released on Nov 8 (Daily Beirut) is the man taken on Nov 6, and how he was freed.
4. Date of the cabinet session on Dahr al-Baidar; what happens to the five Bsharri detainees.
5. Whether US or Israeli forces resume strikes on Iran.

CORRECTIONS & REVISIONS REGISTER

SOURCE & VERIFICATION LOG

Checked: Naharnet (homepage and eight articles dated Nov 13: NNA, AFP, AP, MTV, Axios). All Nov 13 items come from one outlet's relays; NNA is the only source for the south Lebanon items. Not found: any independent ground report for Nov 12; Anadolu and Al Arabiya pieces for Nov 12–13. Not checked: L'Orient Today, MoPH directly, IDF, UNIFIL, Lebanese Army, CIS field reports. → Edition Confidence: LOW.

FAQ — LEBANON SECURITY TODAY

What is Lebanon's security level today, November 13, 2026? 74/100 (HIGH), provisional, set by Nabatieh. Nov 12 was final at 74.

What happened in south Lebanon on November 13? Reports cite a tank firing two shells at a house in Mayfadoun, a drone dropping a stun grenade on Yater, a heavy detonation in Khiam and artillery on four towns. No casualties were reported.

Why are drones flying over Beirut? Low-flying drones were reported over Beirut for a second day; no strike has been reported there.

What happened with Iran and Bahrain? CENTCOM says two IRGC one-way drones aimed at Bahrain were shot down. The Guards claimed they destroyed a US radar; the US denied it.

What is the Dahr al-Baidar case? A Hezbollah truck stopped at a checkpoint in early November carried 780 kg of explosives, according to judicial officials. Aoun and Salam will put a referral to the Judicial Council on the cabinet agenda.

Is Beirut safe today? Beirut scores 36/100 (LOW). No evacuation order.

Beyond the Index: Request a security offer → · +961 3 539900 · info@cissecurity.net · Emergency: Red Cross 140 · Civil Defence 125 · ISF 112 · Army South Liaison +961-8-802-510

Informational professional assessment — not a guarantee of safety and not a substitute for official government guidance. Declaration of interest: CIS Security provides security services; the Index is editorially governed by its published methodology.

Cite: CIS Security. "CIS Lebanon Security Index™ — November 13, 2026 (War Day 257): 74/100, HIGH (provisional)." cissecurity.net/security-index/november-13-2026/

Sources: Anadolu Agency, "Israeli forces shell 5 southern Lebanon towns as drones fly low over Beirut" (Nov 13); Naharnet, "Low-flying drones buzz Beirut as Israeli shelling targets southern towns" (Nov 13); MTV Lebanon, "A Merkava tank has fired two artillery shells at a house in the town of Mayfadoun, in the Nabatieh district" (Nov 13); RFE/RL, "CENTCOM Denies Iranian Claim It Struck A US Radar In Bahrain" (Nov 13); Middle East Eye, "Centcom says two Iranian drones aimed at Bahrain shot down" (Nov 13); L'Orient Today, "'Security by chance': Arrest of Hezbollah members near Batroun sparks criticism of state" (Nov 10); Naharnet, "Hezbollah compares Bsharri detainees to prisoners held by Israel, report says" (Nov 13); Naharnet via Yerepouni, "Aoun, Salam to soon put Dahr al-Baidar case on cabinet's agenda" (Nov 13); Axios and AP via Naharnet (Mossad chief, Iran, Bahrain, Nov 13).

Compilation notes: Editorial checks matched each cited report to its source link; other outlets confirm the November 13 Mayfadoun tank fire at a house, the Yater stun grenade and the Khiam detonation, all from NNA (Anadolu, MTV, Naharnet), and low-flying drones over Beirut for a second day (Naharnet); CENTCOM's statement that two IRGC one-way drones aimed at Bahrain were shot down and its denial that a radar was hit (RFE/RL, Middle East Eye); the arrest of five Hezbollah members near Batroun, Bsharri and Koura on Tuesday, November 10 (L'Orient Today, Naharnet), Hajj Hassan's request that they be handed over (Naharnet citing MTV), and the report that Aoun and Salam will soon put the Dahr al-Baidar referral on the cabinet agenda (Naharnet, via Yerepouni). The Axios report on the Mossad chief's Washington visit and the IRGC's gas-tanker mine claim were not matched in other outlets. The Baalbek-Hermel trail in the governorate table was corrected to the published scores (31 · 30 · 29 · 28 · 27 · 26 · 25). Update after compile: Anadolu reports three drone explosions at Mayfadoun and air strikes on Hadatha and Mansouri on November 12, and a later MTV report gives the Bsharri detainees' account of their mission; neither is scored. The edition-number placeholder and internal format label were removed, and a sources list was added. The supplied CIS scores are retained.

Related CIS editions and methodology

• November 12, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• November 11, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• November 10, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• November 9, 2026 — Lebanon Security Index
• Index methodology and risk bands
• All Lebanon Security Index reports
• Contact CIS Security