All Reports

↗️ WORSENING (DIPLOMATICALLY) — CIS nudges its Index score up today, not because of a new mass-casualty incident, but because the primary mechanism for de-escalating this conflict has just been pushed back by a full month.

↔️ MIXED — CIS holds its reading close to Thursday's level, but the character of today's top story is different from anything CIS has reported in this cycle.

⬇️ EASING — CIS lowers today's reading from Monday's 90/100 CRITICAL, reflecting a genuine and reported de-escalation: local and international mediation, credited by Lebanese broadcaster Al-Jadeed to contacts made by President Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam alongside Arab and international efforts, appears to have pacified the situation in Nabatieh city itself since Tuesday.

⬇️ EASING — Overnight into Wednesday, Israeli artillery shelled the southern towns of Kfar Remman, al-Mansouri, Wadi Zebqine, Mays al-Jabal and Qabrikha, while air and drone strikes hit Nabatieh al-Fawqa, Wadi Zebqine, Wadi Slouqi and Kfartebnit; Israeli forces also carried out controlled detonations in al-Mansouri.

⬇️ EASING FROM PEAK, STILL CRITICAL — Overnight into Tuesday, Hezbollah launched two explosive drones at Israeli troops on the Ali al-Taher ridge — the third such launch in a week — prompting further Israeli strikes on Kfar Rumman targeting what the IDF described as a weapons store, command rooms, and armed personnel.

⬆️ RISING — Overnight into Monday, Israeli strikes on the town of Kfar Rumman (Kafr Rouman), in the Nabatieh district, destroyed a three-story residential building, killing nine people including two infants and wounding five; a separate Israeli drone strike on a civilian vehicle in the same town killed two paramedics from the Islamic Risala Scout Association.

⬆️ RISING — CIS is correcting its own scale application from the September 5 edition, where an index reading in the 61–80 HIGH band was mislabeled CRITICAL.

↔️ HOLDING AT SEVERE, WITH AN IMPORTANT CORRECTION TO YESTERDAY'S REPORT — CIS must directly qualify its September 4 update, in which it reported Netanyahu's and Katz's declarations that Ali al-Taher had been fully captured and "no longer threatens Israel." Lebanon's National News Agency reported Friday into Saturday that an Israeli strike killed two people near the ridge itself — and, critically, both Dawn and the Associated Press explicitly note that Hezbollah has not confirmed losing the position at all.

⬆️ +23 (51 → 74) — ⚠️ Israel has announced the capture of Ali al-Taher ridge — the largest single development of this escalation.

⬆️ RISING ON THE MILITARY TRACK, WITH A GENUINE HUMANITARIAN BRIGHT SPOT — CIS is reporting today the culmination of the single most consistently volatile flashpoint it has tracked throughout this entire index.

⬆️⬆️ SHARP RE-ESCALATION — After several weeks in which the acute nightly-strikes phase of the US-Iran war appeared to have given way to a sanctions-driven standoff, hostilities have reignited dramatically over the past 48 hours.

⬆️ RISING SHARPLY — CIS must report today the most consequential single verdict on the entire post-framework process since it began tracking this conflict in late June.

⬇️ −7 (64 → 57), a band change from HIGH to MEDIUM driven by Nabatieh.

⬇️ −9 (73 revised → 64), driven by Nabatieh.

⬇️ −7 (75 → 68), driven by Nabatieh.

⬆️ RISING ON THE LEBANON-SPECIFIC TRACK, EASING ON THE BROADER REGIONAL TRACK — CIS must correct and update the picture from its August 25 report.

⬆️ +12 (62 → 74).

⬆️ +6 (56 → 62).

⬆️ +1 (55 → 56).

⬇️ FIRST DROP OUT OF THE HIGH BAND — The national alert level reads 55/100 MEDIUM, down six points from 61 and set by Nabatieh.

⬇️ EASING AS THE 15 AUGUST LOAD DECAYS OUT — The national alert level reads 61/100 HIGH, set by Nabatieh and sitting at the very bottom edge of the HIGH band. 15 August, the deadliest day since the truce, has now fully exited the seven-day window, while yesterday's published score is revised upward from 64 to 73 after further reporting surfaced eight additional incidents.

⬇️ TENTATIVE EASING ON A REVISED BASIS — The national alert level reads 64/100 HIGH, set by Nabatieh and down eight points on a revised basis.

⬇️ EASING CONTINUES, NOT DE-ESCALATION — The national alert level reads 69/100 HIGH, set by Nabatieh and down two points from 71.

⬇️ SMALLEST FALL OF THE DECLINE — The national alert level reads 71/100 HIGH, set by Nabatieh and down two points from 73, the smallest daily fall since the decline began on 17 August.

⬇️ EASING BY DECAY, SECOND CONSECUTIVE FALL — The national alert level reads 73/100 HIGH, set by Nabatieh and down six points from 79 as Saturday's mass-casualty day decays further out of the seven-day window.

⬇️ EASING BY DECAY, BAND FALLS TO HIGH — The national alert level reads 79/100 HIGH, set by Nabatieh and down six points from 85 as Saturday's mass-casualty day ages out of the seven-day window.

⬇️ EASING BY DECAY, STILL CRITICAL — The national alert level reads 85/100 CRITICAL, set by Nabatieh and down seven points from 92 as the weekend's mass-casualty load ages out of the seven-day window.

⬇️ EASING FROM PEAK, STILL CRITICAL — The national alert level reads 91/100 CRITICAL, set by Nabatieh and down three points from 94 as Saturday's mass-casualty load decays.

⬆️⬆️ SHARPLY RISING — CIS must report the deadliest single Israeli attack on Lebanon since the truce that took hold in June.

↔️ STABLE — CIS must open today's update with a correction to its own prior reporting.